1b mugg mass valuation-processes-v2
TRANSCRIPT
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Mass Valuation:Processes & Decisions
BEV - www.bev.gv.at - Federal Office of Metrology and Surveying Dept. International Relations, State Borders
A-1020 Vienna, Schiffamtsgasse 1-3
PhD-student at TU-Vienna
C+LR KEN Cadastre + Land Registry Knowledge Exchange Network
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Land Administration ProcessesData – Processes – Resources
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Land Administration Processes
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Price - Value
Levels of value
Perspectives
on value
Source: den Ouden, E. (2012): Innovation Design: Creating Value for People, Organisations and Society. Dordrecht: Springer.
Theory of price:benefit gained from those who
demand the entity meets the
seller's marginal costs
Theory of value:Present worth of future benefit
Classical economic:
• Labor theory of value
• Exchange value
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Price - Value
Levels of value
Perspectives
on value
Source: den Ouden, E. (2012): Innovation Design: Creating Value for People, Organisations and Society. Dordrecht: Springer.
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Nutzen – Wert – Preis
Levels of value
Perspectives
on value
Source: den Ouden, E. (2012): Innovation Design: Creating Value for People, Organisations and Society. Dordrecht: Springer.
Theory of price:benefit gained from those who
demand the entity meets the
seller's marginal costs
Theory of value:Present worth of future benefit
Classical economic:
• Labor theory of value
• Exchange value
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Model Valuation cycle
adapted from {Espinosa #3270}.
CRISP-DM Data Mining Process Model
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Data categoriesselect / cooperate to ensure access
OBJEKT
VALUE§legalRestrictions
Rights
FinancialCosts / Risks
Benefits
OBJEKT
SiteImprovement
Land
LocationInfrastructureDis-/Amenities
VALUEi = f (Si, Li, Fi, §i) + f (x,y,t)
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• How to gather / store / share data ?
• Are our processes at C&LR fit for purpose ?
– PPP: D: Sales price collection / USA: MLS / SLO: sales-price-db
– A: Transfer-prices Housing Register
• How to contribute to a dynamic system ?
Real Estate Market a dynamic system
flats – new/old houses
VALUEi = f (Si, Li, Fi, §i) + f (x,y,t)
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Real Estate Market observations
Life Cycle
SUPPLY TRANSFER DEMAND
Statistic Austria
(GWR)
Regions
Cadastre Asking Price Land Tenure
Public Reg.
C& LR
Statistic
Austria
Offer
Price
Use Regulation
Constructing
Investors
Subdivisions
Buildings
TO
SELL
TO
RE
NT
TO
SELL
TO
RENT
Owners
Users
Land -
Building land
Potential land use
Land& Building / / -
Improved building
land
- -
Under construction ∑Building permits
∑Construction
costs
- - -
New construction ∑ Building
completed
- -
Old construction - -
Energy efficiency - -
Lester, B., Visschers, L. & Wolthoff, R. (2013): Competing with Asking Prices. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 7163, http://ftp.iza.org/dp7163.pdf .
McCord, J. (2014): Northern Ireland Asking Price Index, http://www.nihe.gov.uk/northern_ireland_asking_price_index.pdf
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Real estate transfer market
to sell
to rent
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Tosell
Torent
Flat
Flat+
House
Land
Spatio-temporal variation of characteristics & pricealternating granularity / missing characteristics
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Real Estate: Assets & Space Marketsrenting / buying / constructing / space
DiPasquale, D. & Wheaton, W.C. (1992): The Markets for Real Estate Assets and Space: A Conceptual Framework.
Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economic Association V20, 1, 181–197.
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Statistical Modelling of Value
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info is in the residuals
analyzing variance-covariance matrix
Statistical Modelling Challenges & Approaches
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Real Estate Market fundamentalsspatio-temporal variation of characteristics & price
Ball, Michael (2012): RICS European Housing Review 2012. RICS. London.
ask price – sale price
EUROSTAT (Hg.) (2012): Technical manual on OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING for Harmonized Index of Consumer
Prices (v.2.0).
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Willingness
Infrastructure f. data / processes / servicesHow much cooperation does the market accept ?
Mass valuation to facilitate better decision making: Socio-economic / Spatial planning processes Property related taxation / subsidies Parameters to support, but NOT to challenge individual valuation
Market observations & Mass valuation• to reveal fundamental facts & market trends• for a functioning /bubble-free real estate market• for a transparent decision making within Gov. - Business - Citizens data on market fundamentals : NL, SWE, SLO, PL, CZ data on value-determining parameters FR, G: Land-value-maps data on public rights & restrictions CH: ÖREB
Polit
ics
Infr
a-st
rukt
ur
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Willingness
Infrastructure f. data / processes / servicesDoes C+LR see the opportunity ???
C+LR: opportunityto contribute essential parameters & processes site characteristics of land & building Provide private & public property rights Ensure spatiotemporal labeling of data clearly specified metadata (level of completeness, granularity, ...) Value-determining parameters: efficient acquisition / multiple use
-Web- / Data-Mining / Cooperation (G-B-C)
Tech
nic
al
coo
p.