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APRAC-10

Hewlett-Packard Company

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ISMS-2015

1st Fortnight of June

Andhra Pradesh Space Applications Centre

(Planning Department, Government of Andhra Pradesh)

D.No: 3-6-438/1, 1st Floor, NASPUR House, Himayathnagar, Hyderabad-500029

Phone: 040 27634506, FAX:040 27634507 web site : www.apsac.ap.gov.in

Integrated Seasonal Condition Monitoring System Andhra Pradesh

Cumulative Report up to 15th June, 2015

Ø Seasonal condition is categorised as “Normal” in 567 Mandals as on date 15th June, 2015.

Ø Seasonal condition is categorised as “Watch” in 103 Mandals as on date 15th June, 2015.

ØNellore district is excluded in the assessment and considered as "Normal" as it is covered during

North- East Monsoon.

INTEGRATED SEASONAL CONDITION MONITORING SYSTEM (ISMS)ANDHRA PRADESH

Ø 346 Mandals out of 670 (52 %) of Andhra Pradesh state

received excess rainfall and 101 Mandals (15 %) of the

state received normal rainfall up to the 15st June, 2015.

Ø 126 Mandals (19%) and 94 Mandals (14%) have received

deficit and scanty rainfall, respectively.

Ø 03 Mandals of Andhra Pradesh were faced “no rain”

situation upto 15th June 2015. 1. Ichchapuram

(Srikakulam), 2. Gudluru (Prakasam), 3. Kallur (Kurnool)

Rainfall 01st June to 15th June, 2015Fortnightly seasonal condition of AndhraPradesh upto 1st fortnight of June, 2015

Cumulative Seasonal Condition Up to 15th June, 2015

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100

200

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400

500

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700

1st Fortnight of June

No. o

f Man

dals

Watch

Normal

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SCIENTIFIC TEAM

A P S A C

Dr. T. Narendra babu Scientist-SE

Project Manager

Sudheer Kumar Tiwari Scientist-SC

Associate Project Manager

M. Lakshmi Prasad Rao Resource Analyst

A P S D P S A. Ramkrishna Nagaraju Assistant Executive Engineer

B. Shiva Kumar Young Professional

ii

Figures

Figure 1 : Flow chart ......................................................................................................................... 3 Figure 2: Deviation of Rainfall in percent w.r.t. Normal from June 01to June 07, 2015 ...................... 5 Figure 3: Deviation of Rainfall in percent w.r.t. Normal from June 08 to June 15, 2015 ..................... 5 Figure 4: Deviation of Rainfall in percent w.r.t. Normal from June 01 to June 15, 2015 ..................... 6 Figure 5: District wise deviation from normal crop sown area as on date 10-06-2015 ......................... 7 Figure 6: District wise deviation from normal crop sown area as on date 10-06-2015 ......................... 8 Figure 7: NDVI - MODIS (250m): First fortnight of June 2015, 2014 and 2010 ................................. 9 Figure 8: NDWI- MODIS (250m) First fortnight of June 2015, 2014 and 2010 ................................ 10 Figure 9: NDVI deviation-MODIS (250m) for the First fortnight of June w.r.t. 2010 ....................... 11 Figure 10: NDWI-MODIS (250m) deviation for first fortnight of June w.r.t. 2010 ........................... 11 Figure 11: Drought Assessment based on ISMS Criterion for the first fortnight of June, 2015 .......... 12

CONTENT

S.No. Description

Page

1 Background and Rationale 1 2 Data used, Indicators and Methodology 2 3 Present status for the first fortnight of June, 2015 4 3.1 Rainfall and other weather data 4 3.2 Crop Sowing Progress 7 3.3 Vegetation Index 9 3.4 Surface Wetness Indicators 10 3.5 The deviation of NDVI and NDWI w.r.t. 2010 11 3.6 Drought situation of Mandals 12 3.7 List of Mandals under Watch condition 13

4 Conclusions 13 5 References 14

Annexure

I

Dissemination of the report

14

1

1. Background and Rationale

The Government of Andhra Pradesh (GoAP) uses the following criterion for declaration of Drought.

1. Mandatory Condition - Rainfall deficiency of 25% (>1000 mm rainfall area) and 20% (999 to

750 mm rainfall area) and 15% (<750 mm rainfall area)

2. Minimum of two condition to be fulfilled out of following three

a) Reduction in cropped areas of 50% and above under all principal crops.

b) Reduction in yields(50% and above),in case of high input oriented crops ground nut,

Bengal gram, hybrid sunflower yields may 40% reduction or above.

c) Dry spells and its impact on crop damages.

In Andhra Pradesh, an extensive weather observation network of 1169 Automatic Weather Stations

(AWS), 59 soil moisture meters, 86 global radiation meters is established. Andhra Pradesh State

Development Planning Society (APSDPS) monitor the data and maintains the networks. Figure 1 and

Figure 2 showing the location of AWS and river gauge stations in Andhra Pradesh.

Integrated Seasonal Condition Monitoring System (ISMS): The objectives of the ISMS are

• Concurrent monitoring of seasonal conditions using remote sensing, extensive weather

network data and continuous ground truth.

• Develop an early warning (monitoring and forecasting) of Agriculture drought using suite of

indicators, which will help to increase drought preparedness, and identify and implement

appropriate Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures.

• Early Warning to the Districts/Mandals.

The details of the classification of agricultural situation are given in Table.1.

Table. 1. Classification of Agricultural situation

June - June

Normal • Agricultural situation is normal

Watch • Progress of Agricultural situation is slow • Ample scope for recovery • No external intervention needed

Alert

• Very slow progress of agricultural situation • Need for intervention. • Develop and implement contingency plans to

minimise loss

September - October

Mild drought • Crops have suffered stress slightly

Moderate drought

• Considerable loss in production. • Take measures to alleviate suffering

Severe

• High risk Significant reduction in crop yield • Management measures to provide relief

2

2. Data used, Indicators and Methodology

2.1 Data used

The details of data used under project is discussed in Table-2

Table. 2. Data source and indicators

Data source Product Indicators

MODIS (250/500m) Surface reflectance NDVI & NDWI AWiFS Surface reflectance NDVI & NDWI

AWS • Daily/ Cumulative rainfall • Rainfall deviation • Dry spells

Agriculture Department Weekly sowing progress

District/Madal wise sown areas deviation from normal.

Irrigation Department Reservoir levels/ Water release data

Command area Mandals under canal irrigation

2.2 Methodology

The methodology used by Andhra Pradesh Space Applications Centre (APSAC) to assess and monitor

the agricultural conditions and situation in the state at district and Mandal level uses MODIS 16 days

composite (250 m) and IRS Resourcesat-2 AWiFS data. The Indian Remote Sensing satellite (IRS)

Resourcesat-2 having AWiFS (Advanced Wide Imaging Field Sensor) payload collects data in two

spectral bands 0.62-0.68µm (red) and 0.77-0.86 µm (near infrared) with spatial resolution of 56 m and

ground swath of 740 Km with a revisit period of 5 days. Along with this MODIS 250/500m satellite

data provide spectra, radiometric and spatial resolutions products for better monitoring of the

agriculture. The combination of AWiFS and MODIS is useful to increase the frequency of images

The different activities carried out through ISMS commence with acquisition of MODIS (250m) and

AWiFS (56m) satellite data. The satellite data being processed and NDVI and NDWI indices are

developed. Based on these indices deviation with respect to normal year (2010), VCI calculation and

Mandal wise Statistics are derived. The agricultural situation is assessed incorporating Rainfall

deviation, Command and non command areas, dry spell, CRIDA software outputs, Drought prone

border line areas, Crop sown area progress and ground truth along with Satellite derived indices. The

flow chart of methodology is shown in Figure 1.

3

Figure 1 : Flow chart

NDVI & NDWI NDVI & NDWI

Satellite Data

MODIS AWiFS

VCI Deviation w.r.t. Normal year

% Rainfall

Dry Spell

Jun to Aug

Septo Oct

Jun to Aug

Septo Oct

Normal watch Alert

Normal Mild

Moderate Severe

Normal watch Alert

Normal Mild

Moderate Severe

Composite Fortnightly Report

Ground Truth

Weekly Sowing

Reservoir Level

Water Release

4

3. Present status up to 15th June, 2015

3.1. Rainfall and other weather data

The status of rainfall as on 15th June, 2015 shown in Table 3. 94 mandals out of 670 mandals

(14%) of the Andhra state received Scanty rainfall and 126 mandals out of 670 mandals (19%)

received deficit rainfall. Out of total, 101 mandals (15%) and 346 mandals (52%) are under

Normal and Excess category respectively and also 3 Mandals of Andhra Pradesh were faced "No

rain" up to first fortnight of June, 2015.

Table 3: Rainfall status as on 15th June, 2015

Sl. No District Name No. of Mandals

Scanty Deficient Normal Excess No Rain

Grand Total

1 Anantapur 9 17 18 19 63 2 Chittoor 7 21 14 24 66 3 East Godavari 64 64 4 Guntur 1 7 11 38 57 5 Kadapa 12 14 14 11 51 6 Krishna 5 7 38 50 7 Kurnool 25 12 11 5 1 54 8 Nellore 20 18 2 6 46 9 Prakasam 12 20 9 14 1 56

10 Srikakulam 7 6 8 16 1 38 11 Visakhapatnam 1 5 2 35 43 12 Vizianagaram 1 3 30 34 13 West Godavari 2 46 48

State Total 94 126 101 346 3 670

5

The % deviation of Actual & Normal rainfall received up to 15th June 2015 shown in Fig. 2, 3, 4

respectively.

Figure 2: Deviation of Rainfall in percent w.r.t. Normal from June 01to June 07, 2015

Figure 3: Deviation of Rainfall in percent w.r.t. Normal from June 08 to June 15, 2015

6

Figure 4: Deviation of Rainfall in percent w.r.t. Normal from June 01 to June 15, 2015

7

3.2. Crop Sowing Progress

Upto 10th June, 2015. Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam, East Godavari, Guntur,

Prakasam, Nellore, Kadapa, Ananthapur and Kurnool districts are showing high negative

deviation (<-50%) with respect to normal crop sown area. West Godavari, Krishna and Chittoor

districts are showing low negative deviation (>-25% to <0%) with respect to normal crop shown

area (Table 5). The total area sown in the state is 0.96 Lakhs ha as against the normal sown area

2.12 Lakhs ha (deviating -54.98 %) as on date 10th June 2015. The deviation map is shown in

Figure 5 and the deviation graph is shown in Figure 6.

Figure 5: District wise deviation from normal crop sown area as on date 10-06-2015

8

Table 5: District Wise Crop Sowing Area - Upto 10-06-2015

District As on 10/06/15

Deviation % Normal (ha) Actual (ha)

Srikakulam 12306 1797 -85.40

Vizianagaram 22939 8911 -61.15

Visakhapatnam 34907 16578 -52.51

East Godavari 7700 0 -100.00

West Godavari 15497 14568 -5.99

Krishna 15229 14600 -4.13

Guntur 6658 1000 -84.98

Prakasam 13191 5740 -56.49

P.S.Nellore 30406 9401 -69.08

Chittoor 24385 20035 -17.84

Kadapa 6434 980 -84.77

Anantapur 14847 0 -100.00

Kurnool 8078 2097 -74.04

Total 212577 95707 -54.98

Source: Department of Agriculture, Andhra Pradesh State

Figure 6: District wise deviation from normal crop sown area as on date 10-06-2015

9

3.3. Vegetation Index

The NDVI (Normalized Difference of Vegetation Index) for the first fortnight of June 2015 shown and also compared with 2010 and 2014 in figure 10.

The year 2010 is treated as a normal year.

Figure 7: NDVI - MODIS (250m): First fortnight of June 2015, 2014 and 2010

10

3.4. Surface Wetness Indicators

The map indicates status of moisture availability in soil as well as in crop canopy for first fortnight of June, 2015 and year 2010 is treated as a normal

year. NDWI situation for the year 2014 & 2015 w.r.t. 2010 are shown in the Figures 8.

Figure 8: NDWI- MODIS (250m) First fortnight of June 2015, 2014 and 2010

11

3.5. The deviation of NDVI and NDWI w.r.t. 2010 are shown in the figures 9 and 10.

Figure 9: NDVI deviation-MODIS (250m) for the First fortnight of June w.r.t. 2010

Figure 10: NDWI-MODIS (250m) deviation for first fortnight of June w.r.t. 2010

12

3.6. Drought situation of Mandals:

3.6.1. Composite Criteria

For the first fortnight of June, 2015. The drought situation in the state is assessed using different

indicators viz. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Rainfall deviation in mandals of Andhra

Pradesh. All indicators were composited for analysis and mandals were categorised into Normal,

and Watch. Mandal wise analysis for the first fortnight of June, 2015 indicated “Normal”

agricultural situation in 567 mandals (85% of total mandals) and agricultural situation is

categorized under “Watch” in 103 mandals (15% of total mandals). Nellore district is excluded in

the assessment and considered as "Normal" as it is covered during North-East Monsoon period.

Spatial distribution of mandals categorized under Normal and Watch are shown in Figure 11.

Figure 11: Drought Assessment based on ISMS Criterion for the first fortnight of June, 2015

13

3.7. List of Mandals (district wise) under watch condition

District Name (Mandals)

Watch (Mandal name)

Anantapur

Penukonda, Dharmavaram, Ramagiri, Tadimarri, Putlur, Gummagatta, Kanekal, Uravakonda, Pamidi, Peddapappur, Yadiki, Peddavadugur, Vidapanakal, D.Hirehal ( 14 )

Chittoor

Palasamudram, Nagari, Pulicherla, Nindra, Pichatur, Yerpedu, Renigunta (07)

Guntur

Nuzendla, Prathipadu, Duggirala, Guntur, Bollapalle (05)

Kadapa

Sri Avadhutha Kasinayana, T Sundupalle, Nandalur, Ramapuram, Lakkireddipalle, Pendlimarri, Vallur, Thondur, Lingala, Simhadripuram, Porumamilla, Kalasapadu, B.Kodur, Brahmamgarimattam, Kondapuram (15)

Krishna

Kankipadu, Penamaluru, Ibrahimpatnam (03)

Kurnool

Pattikonda, Tuggali, Peapally, Owk, Kolimigundla, Sanjamala, Banaganapalle, Koilkuntla, Dornipadu, Rudravaram, Sirvel, Nandyal, Panyam, Bethamcherla, Veldurthi, Krishnagiri, Devanakonda, Aspari, Alur, Holagunda, Pedda Kadubur, Yemmiganur, Kodumur, Kallur, Orvakal, Midthur, Atmakur, Kothapalle, Nandikotkur, Kurnool, Gudur (31)

Prakasam

Singarayakonda, Ulavapadu, Gudluru, Pamur, Zarugumilli, Veligandla, Komarolu, Giddalur, Racherla, Bestawaripeta, Kanigiri, Janakavarampanguluru, Thallur, Mundlamuru, Darsi, Tarlupadu, Markapur, Donakonda, Pullalacheruvu (19)

Srikakulam

Ichchapuram, Kaviti, Kanchili, Sompeta, Vajrapukothuru, Nandigam, Gara, Hiramandalam (08)

Vishakhapatnam

Dumbriguda (01)

4. Conclusions

Summary of seasonal conditions for the First fortnight of June, 2015 are as follows:

Ø 346 Mandals out of 670 (52 %) of Andhra Pradesh state received excess rainfall and 101

Mandals (15 %) of the state received normal rainfall up to the 15st June, 2015.

Ø 126 Mandals (19%) and 94 Mandals (14%) have received deficit and scanty rainfall,

respectively.

Ø 03 Mandals of Andhra Pradesh were faced “no rain” situation upto 15th June 2015. 1.

Ichchapuram (Srikakulam), 2. Gudluru (Prakasam), 3. Kallur (Kurnool)

Ø Mandal wise analysis for the first fortnight of June, 2015 indicated “Normal” agricultural

situation in 567 Mandals and 103 mandals under .

Ø Nellore district is excluded in the assessment and considered as "Normal" as it is covered

during North-East Monsoon.

Ø NDVI assessment can be useful to assess the direct/indirect relation of ground water

availability.

14

5. References

GoI Drought Manual, http://drought.unl.edu/portals/0/docs/international/GovtIndiaDroughtManual.pdf

GoAP Drought Criterion, http://www.seri.ap.gov.in/gos/09012013DM_MS1.PDF

Kogan FN, 1995, Droughts of late 1980s in the USA as derived from NOAA polar orbiting satellite data, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 76: 655-668

Malingreau JP, 1986, Global vegetation dynamics: Satellite observations over Asia, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 7: 1121-1146

Season And Crop Coverage Report, Kharif - 2015 Department of Agriculture, Andhra Pradesh

Tucker CJ and Chowdhary BJ, 1987, Satellite remote sensing of drought conditions, Remote Sensing of Environment, 23: 243-251

ANNEXURE I

DISSEMINATION OF THE REPORT

1. Hon'ble Chief Minister's office

2. Chief Secretary to Andhra Pradesh Government

3. Principal Secretary Planning

4. Principal Finance Secretary

5. Commissioner Disaster Management

6. Commissioner Agriculture

7. Director DES

8. Director NRSC

9. APSAC and APSDPS web site (http://APSAC.ap.gov.in/ and http://apsdps.gov.in/ )