1q 2015 metro market report - images.kw.comimages.kw.com/docs/3/4/6/346573/1432215790215_2015... ·...

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Single Family Detached Residences

Provided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

1Q 2015 Metro Market Report

ABOUT THIS MATERIAL• Data

– The source of all data contained herein is FMLS listings data for real estate transactions occurring in 41 selected FMLS areas and

does not necessarily represent all market activity either for those areas or for the Atlanta Metro area.

– Analysis is performed by ChartMaster Services, LLC, an independent data analysis firm which cannot and does not warrant the

accuracy or completeness of the data or its publications.

– FMLS neither guarantees nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy.

– Accordingly, ChartMaster Services, LLC hereby disclaims any express or implied warranties, including those of merchantability

and/or fitness for a particular purpose, and hereby notifies all readers and users that any reliance upon the data, information,

analysis or opinions contained in any of our publications shall be at the reader’s own risk.

• Terms of Use– These reports provide a competitive advantage for agents in participating Keller Williams offices and should be used in a manner

to protect that advantage.

– Reports are provided by ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively to Keller Williams and should be treated as proprietary to those

offices contracting for the service, not for distribution or posting to web sites in their entirety .

– Reports, either whole or in part, may be used in consultations with clients and prospects during the normal conduct of business

by real estate agents in offices contracting for the service.

– Agents in contracting offices are also encouraged to use selected charts in lead-generation activities as a way to encourage

prospective clients to contact the agent for additional information.

– Acceptance and use of this report shall constitute acceptance of these terms.



1Q 2014 Buyer Consultation

Purpose• Convince Buyers to work with you – the market expert

• Educate Buyers on market conditions that affect their buying decisions

• Show Buyers why now is a good time to buy

• Encourage Buyers to be make realistic offers supported by market data

• Help Buyers focus search in areas that are most likely to provide properties that meet their needs

Design• Combines charts from the Quarterly Report, Area Comparison Report

• Each chart has notes in addition to chart talking points

• Notes can be viewed by using the “view” menu in PowerPoint and selecting “notes page”

• When presenting or printing pages, notes are not visible

Agent Information

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Finding Your

Next Home

3



FITP

FULTONOTP

DEKALB

PAULDING

DOUGLASDEKALB

GWINNETTWEST

EAST

COBB

FULTON

OTP

FORSYTHCHEROKEE

DEKALB

COBB

Metro Area Counties Included

The source of

information used

in these charts is

FMLS data from

these 8 Metro

Counties

4

5




5

Metro Area

FMLS Areas

Included (41)

Cherokee County:111 113

112 114

E. Cobb:81 82 83

W. Cobb:71 73 75

72 74

DeKalb:24 42 52 121

41 51 53

Douglas:91

Forsyth:221 222 223 224

Fulton OTP:13 14 131 33

Fulton ITP:31 21 132

32 22 23

Gwinnett:61 62 63

63 65 65

Paulding:191

111

66

113

112

223

221

222

62

63

13

14

121

51

114

64

61

65

41

42

75

74

73

72

91

191

81

82

83131

71

132

52

21

24

2322

31 32

53

33

224

53

6




Monthly Sales trend higherAn upward trend began in 2011, after the slowdown following expiration of government purchase incentives, however sales have flattened somewhat in recent months

Buyer ConsiderationsIncreasing sales have reduced the inventory of unsold houses causing the market to become much more competitive for buyers, reducing the number of available alternative properties and reducing buyers’ psychological advantage in contract negotiations

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1Q 2015 Metro Market Report1Q 2015 Data Only

7

Sales by price range and New vs. Resale properties

Sales were much lower in the <$100K price range and relatively flat in the $100K-$199K range, keeping the overall change nearly lower in 1Q 2015 than it would have been othewise

All price ranges above $100K had increased sales compared to 1Q 2014

New properties were 11.7% of 1Q 2015 sales

Buyer ConsiderationsHigher sales could increase buyer competition for Resale properties priced above $100K compared to 1Q 2014

Buyers of both New and Resale properties may see increased competition in price ranges above $100K compared to the same period in 2014




The total number of Active listings declined compared to previous years, while the number of sales has increased slightly

Since Jan, 2009 total Active listings have dropped by -58% in March, 2015 while sales have more than doubled

This year has seen the first increase in listings in the last 3 years (+29.4% in March 2015 vs. low point in Feb., 2013)

Buyer ConsiderationsWhen fewer Active listings are available from which buyers can choose, competition for those fewer listings increases, reducing negotiating leverage for buyers

When sales stay relatively constant while the inventory of active listings declines, competition for the declining inventory increases changing the psychology of the market from a “Buyer’s market” to “Seller’s market”




9

Active Listings declined

consistently during most of 2011

and all of 2012 but began to

increase in late 2013 while

demand also increased, forcing

Supply into a Seller’s Market

condition below 6 months of

supply

Supply is now at 4.3 months in

March, 2015

YTD Sales are +8.3% higher

while Active listings have

increased slightly, producing a

relatively stable supply

Buyer Considerations

Competition for a smaller

inventory has increased causing

rising median sales prices,

decreasing median time on

market, fewer price reductions

and increasing median S/L %.

A continuation of recent supply

increases may signal a return to

a more normal supply/demand

relationship and a Balanced

Market condition.




10

The shift toward a Seller’s Market resulted in sharp increases in median sales price

The combination of low interest rates, much lower inventory and fewer distressed properties allowed the median sales price to rise by +10.8% in 1Q 2015, compared to 1Q 2014

Buyer ConsiderationsCompetition has increased for a shrinking inventory causing increased median sales prices, lower time on market, fewer price reductions and increased S/L %.

Negotiations have shifted to a Seller’s market condition allowing sellers to hold prices closer to original listing prices during contract negotiations




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The shift toward a Seller’s

Market also resulted in a

sharp increase in median

Sales Price/Original List

Price percentage (% S/L)

The combination of low

interest rates, much lower

inventory and fewer

distressed properties

allowed the median % S/L

to remain higher at 95.2%

in 1Q 2015


Increased competition has

reduced buyers’ leverage in

contract negotiations

Buyer’s may now have

more difficulty getting

offers accepted at a low

percentage of the seller’s

asking price

1Q 2015 Area Comparison Report

Single Family Detached ResidencesProvided By ChartMaster Services, LLC exclusively for Keller Williams Realty

111

66

113112

223

221

222

62

63

14

121

51

114

64

61

65

41

42

75

74

73

72

91

191

81

82

83131

71

132

52

21

24

23

22

31 32 53

Months of Supply

December, 2014:

<3.0 Months

3.0 - 3.4

3.5 - 3.9

4.0 - 4.9

5.0 - 5.9

6.0+

Metro Area Total:

3.8 months

Areas With 20%+

Distressed Sales:

13

County

GroupingsCherokee County:

111 113

112 114

E. Cobb:

81 82 83

W. Cobb:

71 73 75

72 74

DeKalb:

24 42 52

41 51 53

121

Douglas:

91

Forsyth:

221 222 223

224

Fulton OTP:

13 14 33 131

Fulton ITP:

31 21 132

32 22 23

Gwinnett:

61 62 63

64 65 66

Paulding:

191

224

33

FMLS data for single family detached

residences. Data is believed to be

accurate, but is not warranted.

©2014 Chartmaster Services, LLC.

All rights reserved. This page may

not be reproduced without the

written permission of

[email protected].



1Q 2015 Metro Market ReportPrevious Listing Periods Included

13

The total number of both

distressed and non-distressed

Active listings has declined

The Distressed property

percentage of active listings

has declined from the high

point of 31.6% in 2011 to

8.5% in December, 2014


When fewer Active listings

are available from which

buyers can choose,

competition for those

fewer listings increases,

reducing negotiating

leverage for buyers

Distressed properties are

still a significant part the

inventory, although they

have declined by -25%

since December, 2013

while non-distressed

increased by 11%




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Distressed sales as a percentage of total sales

Lower again 4Q 2014 at 10.8% of sales, down from 4Q 2013 by -11.1 percentage points

More than 58% of distressed property sales were foreclosure transactions

Buyer Considerations:

Although declining, a still-large portion of sales are distressed properties which may result in lower prices and sales at lower percentages of original asking price than otherwise




15

Distressed/Non-Distressed Supply (listings) vs. Demand (sales)

Supply of non-distressed properties in price ranges above $500K is in the “Buyer’s Market” range above 6 months of supply

Supply in price ranges below $1.0M is in the “Seller’s Market” condition below 6 months of supply for Distressed properties

Buyer ConsiderationsDistressed properties have been in demand in all price ranges, increasing buyer competition for these houses, requiring faster action and better offers by buyers

Although now lower than previously, higher inventory for non-distressed properties compared to distressed properties leads to more competition between sellers in order to stand out from their competition, possibly resulting in more high-value property listings

1Q 2015 Area Comparison Report


111

66

113112

223

221

222

62

63

14

121

51

114

64

61

65

41

42

75

74

73

72

91

191

81

82

83131

71

132

52

21

24

23

22

31 32 53

Months of Supply

March, 2015:

<3.0 Months

3.0 - 3.9

4.0 - 4.9

5.0 - 5.9

6.0 - 6.9

7.0+

Metro Area Total:

4.3 months

Areas With 20%+

Distressed Sales:

13

County

GroupingsCherokee County:

111 113

112 114

E. Cobb:

81 82 83

W. Cobb:

71 73 75

72 74

DeKalb:

24 42 52

41 51 53

121

Douglas:

91

Forsyth:

221 222 223

224

Fulton OTP:

13 14 33 131

Fulton ITP:

31 21 132

32 22 23

Gwinnett:

61 62 63

64 65 66

Paulding:

191

224

33

FMLS data for single family detached

residences. Data is believed to be

accurate, but is not warranted.

©2014 Chartmaster Services, LLC.

All rights reserved. This page may

not be reproduced without the

written permission of

[email protected].




1Q 2015 Only

17

List Price Reductions decreased

Low overall supply has not eliminated the necessity for price reductions as 45.2% of sales during 1Q 2015 came after a price reduction

The increase of +5.2 percentage points carried throughout most of these price ranges

Buyer ConsiderationPrice-reduced properties can present an opportunity for lower-priced offer acceptance

That opportunity was greatest in properties priced in higher price ranges

Price reductions increase this period possibly indicating that sellers are becoming more willing to negotiate




1Q 2015 Only

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S/L ratios drop for Price-Reduced properties

After a listing price reduction, sellers in all price ranges received a much lower percentage of their original asking price than sellers not required to take a price reduction, dropping by -8.2 percentage points overall in 1Q 2015

Buyer ConsiderationPrice-reduced properties can be a signal of an opportunity for lower-priced offer acceptance

During 1Q 2015 the median overall S/L ratio for price-reduced properties was -8.2 percentage points less of the original listing price compared to a seller not required to reduce their listing price, and was higher or lower depending upon price range




1Q 2015 Only

Total Closed Listings (100%)

95.2 S/L*

68 DOM*

Price Reduced

(45.2% of Total)

90.0% S/L*

137 DOM*

Previously Listed (18.7% of Total)

88.3% S/L*

223 DOM*

Not Previously Listed

(26.5% of Total)

91.3% S/L*

95 DOM*

No Price Reduction

(54.8% of Total)

98.2% S/L*

22 DOM*

Previously Listed

(4.9% of Total)

97.7% S/L*

162 DOM*

Not Previously Listed

(49.8%Of Total)

98.3% S/L*

19 DOM*

What is the REAL STORY?Many times listed properties will have expired

or been withdrawn one or more times prior to

the listing period in which they sold. Including

the original listing prices and cumulative days

on market from those previous listing periods,

results in a more realistic set of measurements.

The Real Story

19

* Medians: Half are above

and half are below

Right Price/Right AgentRight Price/Wrong

Agent

Right Agent/Wrong

Price

Wrong Price/Wrong

Agent

FMLS data for single family detached residences. Data is believed to be accurate, but is not warranted. ©2015 Chartmaster

Services, LLC. All rights reserved. This page may not be reproduced without the written permission of [email protected].




1Q 2015 Only

What is the REAL STORY?Many times listed properties will have expired

or been withdrawn one or more times prior to

the listing period in which they sold. Including

the original listing prices and cumulative days

on market from those previous listing periods,

results in a more realistic set of measurements.

The Real Story

20

* Medians: Half are above

and half are belowFMLS data for single family detached residences. Data is believed to be accurate, but is not warranted. ©2015 Chartmaster

Services, LLC. All rights reserved. This page may not be reproduced without the written permission of [email protected].

(Double-click anywhere in graphic, enter price range number then double-click outside worksheet to finish)

Enter Your Price Range Number: 9 Desired Price Range Numbers:

1 <$100K

2 $100K-$199K

3 $200K-$299K

4 $300K-$499K

5 $500K-$749K

6 $750K-$999K

7 $1.0M-$1.49M

8 $1.5M+

9 All Combined

Total Closed9,020 Closings (100%)

95.2% S/L*

68 DOM*

Price Reduced4,079 Closings (45.2%)

90.0% S/L*

137 DOM*

No Price Reduction

4,941 Closings (54.8%)

98.2% S/L*

22 DOM*

Previously Listed

1,689 Closings (18.7%)

88.3% S/L*

223 DOM*

Not Previously

Listed2,390 Closings (26.5%)

91.3% S/L*

95 DOM*

Previously

Listed446 Closings (4.9%)

97.7% S/L*

162 DOM*

Not Previously

Listed4,495 Closings (49.8%)

98.3% S/L*

19 DOM*

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1Q 2015 Metro Market ReportPrevious Listing Period Data Included

21

Correctly pricing with the current market can result in multiple offers and sales prices at or above the Original Listing Price

In 1Q 2015, nearly 1 out of every 5 (19.8%) sales transactions resulted in selling prices that were equal to or higher than the original listing price

1,782 properties sold at 100%, or more, of their Original Listing price during 1Q 2015

Buyer ConsiderationsWhen high-value properties are found, competition may create a multiple offer situation, requiring highest and best offers resulting in a sale at a price higher than the original listing price

Builders will often hold tightly to their original listing price while negotiating extras in rather than lowering the selling price

1Q 2015 Area Comparison Report1Q ONLY


(NOTE: Double-click box below "AREA 1" to Enter first Area number, then enter any additional areas in corresponding Area boxes and double-click again to finish)

AREA 1 AREA 2 AREA 3 AREA 4 AREA 5 AREA 6

TOTAL

1Q 15 132 22 23 82 32 121

Number Sold 9,020 56 127 104 200 136 130

YTD Percentage Change # Sold 8.3% 7.7% 18.7% -8.0% 7.5% 19.3% 20.4%

Foreclosure Percentage of Sales 7.6% 1.8% 11.8% 1.0% 3.0% 13.2% 1.5%

% Total Distressed sales 11.8% 3.6% 15.7% 1.0% 6.5% 16.9% 2.3%

Median Sales Price $217,500 $816,550 $155,000 $546,000 $269,000 $218,953 $430,000

Median Sales Price % Change 10.8% 25.0% 121.4% -4.2% -1.9% 42.7% 13.2%

Median Days on Market (DOM) 68 173.5 61 40.5 51.5 56 63

Percent Change in DOM 7.9% 101.7% -4.7% -54.0% -23.7% -5.9% 2.4%

Median S/L Price Percent (% S/L) 95.2% 89.8% 93.5% 96.1% 95.8% 94.3% 95.0%

Percent with a Price Reduction 45.2% 62.5% 48.0% 35.6% 48.0% 41.2% 46.2%

Percentage points change in

number of transactions with a

Price Reduction 5.3% 20.2% -3.4% -17.5% 3.4% 2.6% -0.1%

Percent that were previously

listed 23.7% 42.9% 22.8% 23.1% 29.5% 25.7% 33.8%

Months of Supply of Listings 4.3 6.5 6.1 3.2 3.1 4.0 4.1

Percent Failed of Finalized

Listings 34.5% 45.1% 43.6% 30.7% 27.0% 35.5% 37.8%




Buyer Home Information

Single Agent-Provided Contact Phone Number to Provide Immediate

Information On Any Listed Property - 24/7

- Call Agent-provided central number from any type of phone

- Integrated directly with FMLS database of listings

- Any property, Any phone, English or Spanish

23




Real-Time Neighborhood Intelligence – Around

Properties of Interest

- For Sale - Pre-Foreclosures

- Foreclosures - Sales

- Bank/Govt. Owned sales - Government

Conveyances

Detailed activity directly affecting neighborhood prices

updated daily – Court House Records, FMLS,

GAMLS, Tax Records

Vital information for making offers consistent with

CURRENT neighborhood market conditions

Advanced Tool for Distressed

Property Evaluation

24

http://realvaluator.com/

http://realvaluator.com/

1q 2015 metro market report - images.kw.comimages.kw.com/docs/3/4/6/346573/1432215790215_2015... ·...

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