1st june 2017 - metnet : an e-governance intra-imd...
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()
. . ,
1st June 2017
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100 1912 , ,
1930 , - (thermo-dynamic instability)
1938 , , , 4 (sounding) , (sonde)
1943-44 - , , 5
-
, , 401 (METOX) - 1680 10, , WBRT - , - ,
-3 30 WBRT - (IMS)
, - (TIFR) (SMPU) 1979 (MONEX) 13
-
1990 , , DoIT, , -
MK-4 - - MK -4
21 , () - ,
-
2007 , ,
2009 10 NCMRWF ECMWF , ECMWF (1Kumar et al, 2011)
, 2010 MW -31 (, )
(AOSN) , 2015 , 39 4 (PB)
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43
-
-
1 01/08/2015 2 08/08/2015 3 12/08/2015 4 21/08/2015 5 05/08/2015 6 18/08/2015
A. WMO-GUAN -
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GRAW , , , - -09 - -09 GUAN - -2016 " (GUAN) - ()" ( M. I.Ansari, et al, WMO TECO-2016) WMO -GCOS WMO_GUAN 6 ;
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WMO-GUAN - Parameters Compliance
1. . 2. CLIMAT / CLIMAT TEMP 3. 4. . 5. 6. 40 ""
7. . 8. CLIMAT CLIMAT TEMP CLIMAT TEM 5 , 8 .
60 58
27
60 58
30
6055
27
5156
28
57
25 27 27
46
2732
7
26
145
26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Delhi Mumbai Kolkata Chennai Guwahati Nagpur
Total No. of ascents
Acents beoynd 100 hPa
Beyond 10 hPa
Beyond 5 hPa
November 2015 November 2015
-2015, 2015 2016 , , , , 6 6 25 , 100 , 5
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B. (Operational ) / (, , )
1 24-10-2015 8 18-10-2015
2 08-10-2015 9 08-10-2015
3 29-10-2015 10 03-12-2015
4 06-10-2015 11 12-10-2015
5 24-10-2015 12 19-10-2015
6 14-10-2015 13 08-05-2016
7 09-10-2015 14 14-10-2015
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14 , , -5000 -20 -5000 -20 - , Ramashrey Yadav et al, 2016 14 NCMRWF 14 500 9.4 28.6 100 0.1 0 -1.0 0 100 - 14.0 81.8 ,
-
(i)
-
Count %Rejected SD( C) BIAS(C) RSME(C)
30 3 0.8 1.6 1.9 28 0 1.1 -0.4 1.2 26 0 1.7 0.2 1.7 30 0 1.4 0.2 1.4 27 3 1.5 0.3 1.6 21 0 1.8 0.4 1.8 17 6 1.6 0.3 1.7 10 0 1.8 -0.5 1.9 29 3 2.9 0.7 3.2 15 0 1.4 -0.3 1.5 9 0 1.2 0.3 1.3 15 0 2.6 1.3 3.7 18 0 1.6 0.1 1.6
100 hPa
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(ii)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
No
of A
scen
ts
MONTH
total no of ascent beyond 100 mb beyond 50 mb beyond 20 mb beyond 10 mb
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(iii)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan Feb March April May June
Perc
enta
ge o
f Asc
ent
Month
< 100 hpa < 20 hpa
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan Feb March April May June
Heig
ht (
Km )
Month
Avg. Height Max. Height
-
Level January February March April May June
SDH
SD T SDH
SDT
SDH
SDT
SDH
SDT
SDH
SDT
SDH
SDT
850 18.9 1.9 19.2 1.9 15.8 1.3 17.1 2.8 24.6 1.4 19.5 0.9500 51.4 2.5 40.5 3.0 30.9 2.0 22.2 1.9 23.6 2.3 25.9 0.8200 93.7 2.7 93.5 2.7 63.0 2.6 67.2 2.9 44.4 2.5 41.7 1.8100 71.4 3.4 85.9 3.1 68.2 2.2 55.8 2.7 75.1 2.7 53.5 1.950 41.4 2.7 99.0 1.9 56.8 2.4 50.7 2.9 65.3 1.9 57.5 2.4
Parameters No. ofObs.
Rejection (%)
500 hPa level 100 hPa levelSD Bias RMSE SD Bias RMSE
29 0 11.3 -9.4 14.7 9.5 -4.4 10.5 29 0 1.2 0.2 1.2 1.0 -0.1 1.0 (Zonal)
29 0 4.5 1.5 4.7 2.8 0.0 2.8
29 0 4.6 -0.2 4.6 4.4 -0.7 4.5
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C. (Operational ) / (CFSAW, , )
1 18-06-2012 13 14-08-20152 19/8/2015 14 01-08-20153 21-06-2012 15 27-08-20154 1/8/2015 16 24-08-20155 15-05-2013 17 24-10-20156 27-04-2013 18 14-10-20157 08-07-2016 19 05-05-20148 12-06-2013 20 30-05-20149 16-06-2013 21 22-05-201310 07-06-2013 22 11-05-201311 27-07-2015 23 06-09-201512 20-06-2013
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23 CFSAW, , , CFL-E CF-06A CFL-E CF-06 - , 12-13 2016 23 NCMRWF (first guess) 23 , bias -
-
7
2
13 14 13
20
10
46 5
13
18
26 27
23
7
13
26
17 18
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30ASCENTS < 10 HPA
Month Misda ReasonJan (3) 2
1 ( /
Feb (7) 4
3 ( /
Mar (3) 3 ( /
April (4) 4 ( /
May (5) 2
2 1 (
)
June (1) 1 ( /
(i)
-
197.4
66.681.2
10587.5 82.1
133.5
81.769.5
179.4
116.1
334.6
12.3
36.9 28.812.6
35.4 27.6
57.9
15.3 15.5 15.9 23.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July August Sept Oct Nov Dec
Comparison of STANDARD Deviation of 100 hPa height between 2011 and 2015-16
100hPa SD of GPM Height in 2011
100hPa SD of GPM Height in 2015-16
4.0
4.4
2.7
3.1
4.75.0
4.4
6.3
3.2
4.9
3.7
4.5
1.8 1.7
2.5
1.62.0
2.9
1.6
2.5
2.02.3
1.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July August Sept Oct Nov Dec
100hPa SD of Temp in 2011 100hPa SD of Temp in 2015-16
-
(ii)
781
187 186 184 164
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Beyond 30 hPa
50-30 hPa 70-50 hPa 100-70 hPa Before 100 hPa
17-06-2013 1635 (12 ) 7.4 , 96 30-08-2014 3.6 / 112 (Misda) / / 90 % 100 65% 50
GPS - = 1502
-
(iii)
-
()
(NCMRWF) (ECMWF) (Validate) , , (ECMWF)
, , 2010 - ,
-
.. - (biases) (NCMRWF-GDS)
(bias) - , 100 - 500
, ,
-
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() Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6 Slide Number 8WMO-GUAN - Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23..Slide Number 26