1st quarter 2009 financial resultsir.chartnexus.com/mas/doc/presentation/1q09_presentation.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
as at 31st March 2009
12 June 2009
Presentation to Media
Dato‟ Sri Idris Jala (MD/CEO)
Tengku Dato‟ Azmil (ED/CFO)
1st Quarter 2009Financial Results
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved2
State of the aviation
industry
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved3
Overcapacity Fuel Volatility
2009 is the toughest year for airlines
“Quadruple Squeeze” – No one is immune!
H1N1 Flu
Falling
Demand
• 400 aircraft delivery in
Asia Pacific• Most airlines are hedged
at $100 / bbl
• Reduction in fares & fuel
surcharge
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved4
Fuel prices
• Fuel prices continue to be volatile
• While fuel prices have fallen, many airlines losing money/see lower profits due
to hedging position
• Over 40 airlines have gone bankrupt and more financially weak airlines are
expected to follow
Overcapacity
• Overcapacity still persist
• A lot of aircraft coming into Asia Pacific, capacity growing faster than demand
Global economic slowdown
• Delaying spending due to economic uncertainties Weaker demand for
discretionary travel
• Lower global air traffic, companies downgrading from business to economy
• Globally, airlines have recorded dips in passenger loads and yield pressures
H1N1 Flu Pandemic
• Heightened level of alert to Phase 5, spreading globally
• A huge threat to airline and air travel recoveryNEW!!!
2009 is the most challenging time for the airline
industry1
3
2
4
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved5
IATA – Airline industry outlook remains fragile
• 2009 industry losses doubled to US$9.0 billion
• Asia Pacific airlines hardest hit - US$3.3 billion loss
• Industry revenues to fall by US$80 billion or 15% to US$448 billion
• Passenger traffic expected to contract by 8%
• Cargo to decline by 17%
• Yields to decline 7%
• Industry shrinking - 6% capacity cut
• Growing concern on traffic - swine influenza
• 50 airlines have gone bankrupt in the last 18 months
Source: IATA, June 2009
Carriers in all regions expected to report losses in 2009
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved6
Weak trends in freight and travel continues
Source: IATA
International Passenger and Freight Growth
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved7
Sharp fall in traffic – downward trend continues
Source: IATA
International Passenger Load Factors
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved8
Sharp fall in traffic, Asia Pacific hardest hit!
• 1Q09 yoy passenger traffic fell by 9.1%
• Asia Pacific 1Q09 yoy passenger traffic fell by 12.4%
Passenger Growth by Region
-2.6
-8.4
-5.7
-1.4
3.1
-6.2 -5.6
-10.1
-3.8
0.4
-10.1
-15.6-14.5
-11.6
-5.9
4.7
-13.4
-11.1
-9.1
-3.7
-9.1
-12.0
-13.7-12.8
-10.6
-12.4-11.2
2.7
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
Africa Asia
Pacific
Europe Latin
America
Middle
East
North
America
Total
% G
row
th in
RP
Ks
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
YTD-09
Source: IATA
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved9
Pressure mounts amidst new capacity
Source: Ascend, IATA
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved10
Source: Ascend
The number of aircraft parked continue to
increase (> 2300 aircraft parked in 2009)
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved11
Source: Bloomberg
(Net income in RM)31 b
21b
19b
7b6b
4b
627m
3.1b
1.8b
700m
500m
1.5b
400m
330m
266m320m
630m
3.8b
NOT EXHAUSTIVE
244m
4b3.5b
2.2b
2 b
550m
3.2b
State of the Airline Industry - 2008
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved12
State of Malaysian Carriers in 2008 –
Profitability impacted by tough operating environment
Source: Company results announcement
120m
1QFY08 2QFY08
40m38m
3QFY08 4QFY08
46m
161m
1QFY08 2QFY08
9m
465m
3QFY08 4QFY08
177m
(Net income in RM)
244m
FY08
+
_
472m
FY08
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved13
State of the Airline Industry - 1st Quarter 2009
2.8 b
2.3b
2.3b
1.3b
1.3b1.3b
1.2b1.1b
650m640m
510m
470m
450m
320m300m
21m
42m
21m
98m
1.2b
(Net income in RM)
Source: Bloomberg
NOT EXHAUSTIVE
Early Adoption of
FRS 139
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved15
What is FRS 139?
• Financial Reporting Standard 139 is a standard issued
by the Malaysian Accounting Standards Board (MASB)
that establishes the principles for recognising and
measuring financial assets, financial liabilities and
certain contracts to buy or sell non-financial items.
• It is similar to International Accounting Standard IAS39
which are already adopted by many international
airlines.
• FRS 139 is to be made mandatory in Malaysia effective
from 1st January 2010.
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved16
Key Rationale for Early Adoption FRS 139
1. Most airlines have hedged fuel at US$100+ per barrel
and are incurring huge MTM losses
2. FRS 139 has been adopted in most countries. Most
airlines (Singapore Airlines, Cathay, Qantas) are on IAS
39 regime and US & European airlines are already on
IAS 39/FAS 133
3. Investors and analysts have expressed reservations on
the comparability of our results to our peers unless our
MTM losses are explicitly stated in line with other
airlines. As such, they have been speculating on what
would have been MAS financial results in an FRS 139
environment.
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved17
Many have declared mark-to-market losses in 2008
Sin
ga
po
re A
irli
ne
s
Air
Ch
ina
Cath
ay P
ac
ific
Ch
ina E
as
tern
1.18b
994 m
980 m
908m
629 m
Ch
ina A
irli
ne
s
811 m
Air
Fra
nce
-K
LM
25 m
Sh
an
gh
ai A
irli
ne
s
Hedging
Gain / Loss
(USD)
Asia Pacific airlines fuel hedging mark to market losses for 2008
Source : Bloomberg, Analyst Reports, Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, internet
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved18
Impact from adoption of FRS 139
1. P&L
• MTM losses - Big hit in opening reserves at 1st January 2009
• Effectively, the P&L is “reset” to oil price forward curve as at 1st
January 2009
• MTM impact will change depending on the oil price forward curve
Upward movement will result in MTM gain
Downward movement will result in MTM loss
• The fuel MTM losses are effectively “paper losses” and will only be
realised over the next three years and the quantum realised is
subjected to the actual oil prices
2. Balance Sheet
• Unrealised hedges will be recognised in the Balance Sheet
• No impact on MAS’ healthy cash position, fundamentals remain
intact
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved19
FRS 139 – Resetting of MTM Losses
* Simulated for reference only
Balance
Sheet
@ 1/01/09
Profit
& Loss
MTM Losses(based on forward curve
@ 31st March 2009)
(90)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010
(10) 0 0 0 0
FRS 139 – Resetting of MTM Losses (Example)
(100)
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved20
FRS 139 – Resetting of MTM Losses (Example)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010
P&L
(10)
Gain
Loss
MTM Loss
(100)
Balance
Sheet
(90)
USD 60
USD 70
USD 50
- - --
Note : Simulated reference. Other factors influencing derivates valuations are held constant
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved21
Oil price volatility continues into 2009
Hedges provide protection from the rising fuel price
30
40
50
60
70
80
1/2
/2009
1/9
/2009
1/1
6/2
009
1/2
3/2
009
1/3
0/2
009
2/6
/2009
2/1
3/2
009
2/2
0/2
009
2/2
7/2
009
3/6
/2009
3/1
3/2
009
3/2
0/2
009
3/2
7/2
009
4/3
/2009
4/1
0/2
009
4/1
7/2
009
4/2
4/2
009
5/1
/2009
5/8
/2009
5/1
5/2
009
5/2
2/2
009
5/2
9/2
009
6/5
/2009
US
$/b
bl
Sin Jet WTI Crude
Source: Bloomberg SinJet and WTI Crude prices from 2 Jan 2009
WTI Crude
SinJet
10 Jun 2009
SinJet US$78/bbl
WTI US$71/bbl
1Apr-10Jun09
SinJet avg
US$64/bbl
Jan-Mar09
SinJet avg
US$55/bbl
Jan-10Jun09
SinJet avg
US$59/bbl
1st Quarter 2009
Financial Highlights
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved23
Source: Bloomberg
(Net income in RM)31 b
21b
19b
7b6b
4b
627m
3.1b
1.8b
700m
500m
1.5b
400m
330m
266m320m
630m
3.8b
NOT EXHAUSTIVE
244m
4b3.5b
2.2b
2 b
550m
3.2b
State of the Airline Industry - 2008
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved24
State of Malaysian Carriers in 2008 –
Profitability impacted by tough operating environment
Source: Company results announcement
120m
1QFY08 2QFY08
40m38m
3QFY08 4QFY08
46m
161m
1QFY08 2QFY08
9m
465m
3QFY08 4QFY08
177m
(Net income in RM)
244m
FY08
+
_
472m
FY08
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved25
1Q09 – impact of challenging operating environment
resulted in demand and revenue decline
Operating loss of RM138 million in 1Q09
Total operating expenditure decreased by 20%
Revenue declined due to the worst global recession in 70 years
Seat factor dropped 13.1 ppts
Pax yield up 4% to 29.5 sen/RPK
In response to the collapse in demand, we have proactively
reduced capacity by 11%
+
+
-
-
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved26
Overview of Group Profit & Loss: 1Q09 vs 1Q081Q09
(RM mil)1Q08
(RM mil)
Passenger
Pax Revenue 1,594 2,246
Fuel Surcharge 400 401
Other Revenue 171 156
Cargo
Belly & Freighter 235 392
Fuel Surcharge 65 147
Other Revenue 275 406
Gain on sale of properties - 2
Revenue 2,740 3,750
Expenditure
Fuel 713 1,442
Non-fuel 2,165 2,175
Operating Profit before fin cost & taxes (138) 133
Derivative losses (557) -
Finance costs (17) (4)
Taxation 12 (14)
Operating Profit after fin cost & taxes (700) 115
Share of results of Associated Companies 6 5
Minority Interest (1) (0)
Net Profit after tax (695) 120
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved27
1Q09 Passenger*: RASK , Yield , Seat Factor
Including fuel surcharge and admin fees
Capacity ASK
(Mil km)
RPK (Mil km)
Seat Factor (%)
1Q09
9,386
13,565
6,785
12,095
69.2
56.1
-11%
-28%
-13.1ppts
1Q08
Yield
(sen/RPK)
1Q08 1Q09
23.622.9
28.4 29.5+4%
1Q091Q08
1,551
2,220
2,666
1,999
Pax Revenue
(RM mil)-25%
12.816.4
19.7
16.5
RASK
(sen/ASK)
1Q091Q08
*Excluding Firefly and MASwings
-16%
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved28
Capacity CTKM
(Mil km)
Filled LTKM
(Mil km)
-45%
Cargo Load
Factor (%)
540
298
-27%
-0.4ppts64.464.0
682
936
603
436
-24% 68.3
89.5
* Include (cargo) fuel surcharge
-24%
1Q08 1Q09
-28%
1Q08 1Q09
1Q08 1Q091Q08 1Q09
1Q09 Cargo: Belly Freighter
43.7
57.6RCTKM*
(sen/CTKM)
Yield*
(sen/LTKM)
Cargo Revenue*
(RM mil)
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved29
Costs 1Q09
RM mil
vs 1Q08
RM mil
Variance
Maintenance 320 +38 Engine maintenance for B777
Leasing 495 +34 New lease of 738-800 in 2009, one-off rate reduction
in MASkargo lease rental in 2008
Sales Incentives 23 +10
Advertising 22 +6 Advertising – ELF & All Inclusive Fares campaign
Staff Costs 531 -12
In flight cost 89 -19 Largely decline in pax growth
Commissions 73 -24 Removal and reduction in commission
Fuel 713 -729 Lower avg fuel price from US$114 to US$62 and
lower consumption
Others 612 -43
TOTAL 2,878 -739
Total expenditure decreased 20%,
Fuel costs decreased 50%
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved30
1Q09 Fuel Analysis – Reduction in total fuel
cost from lower fuel price and consumption
1Q08 Price Forex 1Q09
RM billion
1,220
Price decreased
by USD52 from
USD114/bbl to
USD62/bbl
1.44
-0.63
0.71
+0.15-0.25
Volume
- 0.73
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved31
RM mil 31 Mar 2009 31 Dec 2008
Cash 2,942 3,572
Negotiable Deposit 830 1,045
Other Current Assets 2,132 2,311
Non Current Assets 3,208 3,142
Deferred Tax Assets 20 (0)
Total Assets 9,132 10,070
Long Term Borrowing (668) (986)
Other Liabilities (8,911) (4,887)
Total Liabilities (9,579) (5,873)
Net Assets (447) 4,197
Represented by:
Shareholders’ Equity (459) 4,186
Minority Interests 12 11
Balance Sheet – Healthy Cash Balance
4,3,772 4,617
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved32
Impact to Balance Sheet
• Unrealised MTM loss triggers negative equity
• Shareholders’ equity as at 31st March 2009 is -RM459 m.
This means that technically we meet the definition of a
PN17 company
• However operations remains robust and healthy
• Proforma as at 29th May 2009, the shareholders’ equity is
+RM692 m (i.e. no longer meeting the PN17 criteria)
• We have obtained a PN17 waiver from Bursa
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved33
Rationale for obtaining PN17 waiver from Bursa
• First time adoption and transition to FRS139
• Negative equity of RM0.46 billion of which -RM3.3 billion is attributed to
MTM
• The fuel MTM losses are effectively “paper losses”. These will only be
realized over time as the hedges are contractual arrangements over
the next three years (2009, 2010, 2011)
• The fuel MTM will fluctuate with oil price movements. It will reduce if
the oil prices move upwards relative to current forward curve. It is such
that on daily basis, MAS could be in and out of PN17.
• MAS liquidity is still strong with cash balance of RM3.8 billion and
minimum immediate obligation.
* projected opening 1/1/2009 with FRS139
** projection made in April 2009
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved34
Equity position would be positive at 29 May
forward curve
Balance Sheetas at 31Mar09
(in RM billion)
Proforma
non-FRS139 FRS 139
Proforma
FRS 139with fuel MTM
(29May09)
Share cap & RCPS 1.73 1.73 1.73
Reserves 2.382 (2.19)1 (1.04)3
Equity 4.11 (0.46) 0.69
1 Include unrealised MTM
loss of RM3.33 billion
2 No unrealised MTM in
reserves
3 Unrealised fuel MTM
loss dropped by RM
1.15 billion
PN 17 Threshold = RM0.06 b
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved35
MTM Trend: Sensitivity to oil prices
Fuel MTM has improved by RM1.1 billion since 31 Mar 2009
due to upward price movement
Weekly Fuel MTM movement relative to 31/03/2009
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 30 Apr 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May
RM (Million)
52 52
50 51
5658
61
66
Fuel WTI (USD/ bbl)
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved36
Potential hedging gains in Q2 due to oil price
movements
• Since 31st March 2009, oil price has
increased more than 35%
• As of 29th May 2009, MAS could benefit
from hedging gain of RM1.1 billion in
the Q2 P&L
• Consequently, it could mean that MAS Q1
RM695 million will be fully reversed by the
RM1.1 billion
Ceteris paribus (all else being equal)
1.1bgain
RM
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved37
If oil price continue to rise higher than 31st
March 2009 (USD 49 / bbl WTI )
• Potential hedging gain of RM 1.1 billion
(as at 29th May 2009)
• Continue to be protected with restructured
hedges
(47% remaining volume hedged @ USD 103/ bbl WTI for 2009)
+
+
Initiatives
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved39
Lower
cost
Competitive
fares
Get more customers,
more revenue
Grow network,
build capacity
Profitable
Growth
5 Star
We are on track to achieve profitable growth
but interrupted by current global recession
MH & safety
Skytrax 5-Star award
(2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009)
>34 awards (2005 - 2008)
Savings
2006: RM 665 m
2007: RM 738 m
2008: RM 936 m
Everyday Low Fares
All – Inclusive Fares
MH Value Fares
Weekend Specials
Fuel Surcharge Reduction
Increased internet sales
3rd party MRO
Haj & Charter
Firefly
35x 737-800
6x A380
15x ATR
Codeshares & Interline
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved40
Our focus for 2009 is to continue with our
competitive fares initiatives to stimulate demand
Everyday Low Fares MH Value Fares MH Stimulus Package
Internet
Global Travel Fairs (MATF & MATTA)
1 2 3
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved41
With Everyday Low Fares & All Inclusive Low Fares
Internet sales improved by 173% in 2008
YoY Sales Comparison
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Sale
s in
Millio
n (
MY
R) 2008/09
2007/08-
FARES
MH Value Fares
MATF&
MATTA
Total internet sales
improvement from Jan-Dec08
RM 475 mil
2009
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved42
31 m
Jan 08 Jan 09
57 m
+82.5%
42 m
Feb 08 Feb 09
112 m
+164%
44 m
March 08 March 09
99 m
+121%
Significant improvement in internet sales
for Q1 2009 (compared to 2008)
Sales in RM million
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved43
MAS has also introduced MH Value Fares
“How would you like to fly today?”
• One of the first airlines in
Asia to launch these fare
options
• It is about providing value
and choice to our
customers
• They will now have full
control of their travel
experience with four new
fare options for economy
class travel.
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved44
Aggressively Domestic & Global Sales MAS
connects to hundreds of destinations with 700
sales staff and 1,300 agents in over 30 countries
worldwide
MATTA Travel Fair
March 2009
Malaysia Airlines Travel Fair
February 2009
MH‟s global travel fairs are proven to deliver results
– up to 50% up lift of passengers
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved45
Our travel fair has showed 50% - 415%
improvement in passenger and revenue
70.32 m
100 m
2008 2009
92,000
140,000
2008 2009
+52% +42%
4,000
25,000
2008 2009
+525%
3.51 m
18.1 m
2008 2009
+415%
MATF MATTA
Pax Sales (RM) Pax („000) Sales (RM m)
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved46
GOOD RESPONSE TO MAS STIMULUS PACKAGE
• Something for everyone!
• 9 deals covering first, business and economy class travel
• Covers 7 deals for
economy class travel,
1 for business and 1
for business and first
class
• Covers domestic,
ASEAN and
international travel
Challenges &
Outlook 2009
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved48
48
3 thrusts and 7 KBAs to survive this crisis
Serve Customers
Make Money
Save Money
1. MH initiatives
/ win awards
5. Capacity Cut
6. Cost reduction /
Budget cut 7%
7. Fuel Hedging
Restructuring
2. Dual Pricing &
Aggressive Sales
3. Subsidiary
ancillary /
revenues
4. Strategic Alliances
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved49
On track to implement tough cost measures in
2009 to preserve cash – target RM700m – RM1b
Budget cut 7% across the board in 2009
Freeze all recruitment
Freeze all discretionary training and traveling
Stop discretionary expenditure
Prioritise projects
1
2
3
4
5
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved50
Strategic Approaches to deal with the crisis
(i.e collapse in demand)
Low High
High
Low
Yield
Seat Factor
1
2
3
• Increase Yield
• Drop Seat FactorDynamic
Pricing
• Drop Yield
• Drop Seat Factor
• Maintain Yield and
accept a reduction
in seat factor
• Drop Yield and
reduce drop in
seat factor
• Tandem increase
in yield and seat
factor (complicated
but needed fine
tuning)
1
2
3
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved51
51
We have embarked on a revolutionary “dual
pricing” approach Dual Pricing
Framework
Peak FlightsNon Peak Flights
• Cost plus pricing
Aim to maximise profit
• Accept lower Seat Factor in return for
higher yields
• Competitive pricing
Capture market share
• Go for high Seat Factor (e.g. Everyday Low
Fares, travel fair, aggressive promotion, etc)
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved52
Our approach goes down to the route DNA level
MH Pax Business
LHR AMS SYD LAX EWR
J F M DN
MH1 MH2 MH4
1 31
MH16 MH17
1 28 1 31
J F M DN
1 31 1 28 1 31
MH90 MH91
J F M DN
1 31 1 28 1 31
ROUTE
FLIGHT
MONTH
DAY
110,076 P&L
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved53
MAS‟ Fundamentals Remain Intact
At current times “Cash is king” - cash & negotiable deposits of
around RM3.8 billion as at Mar’09
We do not take delivery of new jet aircraft until end 2010
To date, we have already proactively cut capacity by 11% in
2009
Cost savings of over RM2 billion over the last 3 years
We already have put in place stringent controls over costs and
investments
MAS continues to be hedged – will continue to be protected from
rising fuel prices
Drive aggressive sales - forward booking remains strong
Reinvent the way we manage inventory and yield
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved54
If oil price continue to rise higher than 31st
March 2009 (USD 49 / bbl WTI )
• Potential hedging gain of RM 1.1 billion
(as at 29th May 2009)
• Continue to be protected with restructured
hedges
(47% remaining volume hedged @ USD 103/ bbl WTI for 2009)
+
+
Back-up
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved57
Sales & Bookings Up by 81% and 98%
despite H1N1 Flu
Sales (RM) Bookings („000)
2008 2009 2008 2009
245 m
443 m
207,000
411,000
* *
*January 2009 – 24 May 2009
+81% +98%
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved58
Strategic Approaches to deal with the crisis
(i.e collapse in demand)
Low High
High
Low
Yield
Seat Factor
1
2
3
• Increase Yield
• Drop Seat FactorDynamic
Pricing
• Drop Yield
• Drop Seat Factor
• Maintain Yield and
accept a reduction
in seat factor
• Drop Yield and
reduce drop in
seat factor
• Tandem increase
in yield and seat
factor (complicated
but needed fine
tuning)
1
2
3
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved59
Sales & Booking improvement of 126% and 158%
despite economy slowdown
Sales (RM) Bookings („000)
2008 2009 2008 2009
119 m
269 m
91,000
236,000
January–March 2009
+126% +158%
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved60
1Q09 Loss After Tax – Core net loss of RM108m
RM million
Category 1 Category 2Net Loss
After TaxNet Loss on
Recurring
Basis
*Note:
Category 1 - One off items, e.g., gain on sale of properties, disposal of aircraft
Category 2 - Unusual items occurred during the year due to change in estimates and/or change in accounting policies, revised
depreciation
-108
-695
+564
+23
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved61
Peer performance - yoy [option 1]
Source: Company, Research reports estimates
Note: 1) SIA Jan-Mar09
2) Thai Jan-Mar09, seat factor Jan-Feb09
3) CX data 2H08 31/12/08
4) Qantas data 1H09 31/12/08
5) ASK & RPK in million
6) Yield (US cents/RPK)
7) RASK (US cents/ASK)
-5.4%
-14.9%
11.2%
0.4%
-15.2%
-20.3%
5.9%
-2.6%
-5.6% -5.8%
-0.8%
1.2%
-15.3%
-10.7%
-5.5%
-1.8%
-2.3ppt
-5.7ppt
-8.2ppt
-2.4ppt
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
SIA Thai Cathay Qantas
Year
on
Year
Co
mp
ari
so
n (
%)
Ask RPK Yield RASK SF ppt
71.2 76.1 77.627,4
27
19,5
36
7.7 5.5 17,1
60
13,1
60
7.4 5.7
58,5
29
45,3
95
7.2 5.6
63,8
53
50,8
89 8.4 6.7 79.7
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved62
Peer performance - yoy [option 2]
-5.4%
-15.2%
-5.6%
-15.3%-14.9%
-20.3%
-5.8%
-10.7%
11.2%
5.9%
-0.8%
-5.5%
0.4%
-2.6%
1.2%
-1.8%
-8.2ppt
-5.7ppt-2.3ppt
-2.4ppt
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Ask RPK Yield RASK SF
Year
on
Year
co
mp
ari
so
n (
%)
SIA Thai Cathay Qantas
71.2 76.1 77.6 79.7
Source: Company, Research reports estimates
Note: 1) SIA Jan-Mar09
2) Thai Jan-Mar09, seat factor Jan-Feb09
3) CX data 2H08 31/12/08
4) Qantas data 1H09 31/12/08
5) ASK & RPK in million
6) Yield (US cents/RPK)
7) RASK (US cents/ASK)
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved63
MHCVP Progress (as at end Apr 09)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Cumulative Closure Rate Total projects initiated by end of Mar 2009
Thresho ld ( 70 - 79 )
On Target ( 8 0 - 8 9 )
Exceed ing ( 9 0 - 9 5)
Out st and ing ( 9 6 - 10 0 )
Total (initiatives registered)
Total (due by end Mar 09)
738
707
Completed (by end Mar 09) 614
Delayed 93Cumulative closure rate is at 87%
738
87%
No compromise on quality: Customer Value Proposition
© Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved64
MAS hedging position
• MAS has restructured hedges – in light of volatile fuel
prices this is a more prudent measure than unwinding
hedges
• Oil prices have moved up 25% since 31 March (until 2
June 2009)
• Restructured hedge position 53% @ US$106 WTI
• MAS will still be protected from rising fuel prices which
will translate into write back on MTM unrealised hedging
losses
• MAS effectively pays spot prices on the fuel it consumes
today since all hedging losses has been accounted for.
• Consistent hedge practice ensures stable/longer term
outlook