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New Zealand’s EnergyScape New Zealand’s EnergyScape 1 st Stakeholder Workshop An Introduction to Energyscape 9 August 2007

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Page 1: 1st Stakeholder Workshop An Introduction to Energyscape · 2014-04-02 · 1st Stakeholder Workshop An Introduction to Energyscape ... • Overviews from individual projects: • Hydrogen

New Zealand’s EnergyScape

New Zealand’s EnergyScape

1st Stakeholder Workshop

An Introduction to Energyscape9 August 2007

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Agenda

• Overview of overall project.• Overviews from individual projects:

• Hydrogen Economy.• Bioenergy Options.• Indigenous Energy Options and Energyscape.

• Questions and feedback.

We are developing a high level process to develop strategy …

Have we got it right?

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Overall Project Overview – Andrew Campbell

• Background.• The linked projects• Project stages and timing.• Where to from here.

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Background

• National Energy Strategy: “… two major long term energy challenges …”– Responding to climate change …

low carbon energy options.– Delivering secure, clean, affordable, energy while being

environmentally responsible.

… but for New Zealand:– What are our indigenous energy options?– How can we best use them?– What will New Zealand’s future “energyscape” look like?– Need a high level tool to assess those futures.

To identify the priority research to best prepare us.

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Four Linked Projects

– Hydrogen Economy– Bioenergy Options– Indigenous Resources– (… and now) CCS

… to a consortium of CRL Energy,IRL, Scion, GNS, NIWA and associates

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Overall Linked Energyscape Project (lead by NIWA)

Resource maps and related constraints:• Climate-driven (wind, hydro, etc., NIWA)• Earth (coal, oil, gas, etc., NIWA)• Bioenergy (lead by Scion)• CCS (lead by GNS)• Constraints

Infrastructure maps:• Current• Potential• Imported energy use• Hydrogen (lead by CRL)• Constraints

Demand maps (lead by CRL):• Current• Forecast

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Project Outputs

1. Multiple spatial maps:• Resource and constraints gaps• Infrastructure and constraints• Demand2. Single energy pathway calculations:• Energy• Economic• Emissions• gaps in knowledge.

3. Future scenario, multi-pathway analysis:• Development of analysis framework.

identify NZ’s possible future EnergyScapefurther gapsresearch plan to get us there

“Climate-Driven”

“Earth”

Bioenergy

Imports

Residential

Commercial

Industry

Transport

Exports

Resources Demand

Infr

astr

uctu

re

4. Stakeholder and public “outreach”

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Framework Capabilities

• Flexible – able to test various energy futures, whatever the drivers:– energy security?– climate change?– … or will there be a new calamity? … water?

• Working at a high level – paradigm shifts.• To identify the show-stoppers.• To consider physical attributes, not demand side

behaviour change. • Able to be updated.• Accessible.

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Future Scenarios

• Used to test limits …– What will the drivers be?– What breaks under these drivers and why?

• For example:– All vehicles biofuelled by 2050.– 100% renewable energy system by 2050.– All light vehicles fuelled by ethanol by 2030.– 50% light vehicles electric by 2030.Identify where the risks are.And where the research $$$ would optimally go.

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Future Scenarios

To aid the development of an integrated research plan for New Zealand.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

2024

2028

2032

2036

2040

2044

2048

AvfuelCoal UnspecifiedDieselElectricityFuel OilGeothermalHydrogenLPGNatural GasOilPetrolWood

A Hydrogen Scenario

Hydrogen demand

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Gaps in Understanding and Research Types

• “Mainstream” and likely to come from overseas.

• New Zealand-specific (e.g., climate, land use-related, etc.).

• Mainstream but a business case for New Zealand research.

• A range of research providers including: industry; CRIs/CRL; and universities.

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Process Validation

• “Steering” Committee– Leaders in industry and government.

• “Government Group”– MED, MoT/MfE, EECA and linkages to “whole of

government”.• Stakeholders

– Today’s introduction.– Two ½-day workshops – Nov ’07 and March ’08.– Specific meetings/requests for information/input.

• Other– Conferences and seminars.

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Timetable …

Stage 1: Provision of Situation Analysis• Resources and issues maps.• Infrastructure and issues maps• First pathway assessments

Stage 2: Selection of Favoured Pathways

Stage 2-3: Theme/Scenario Development

Stage 3: Theme/Scenario Analysis

Stage 4: Gap Analysis

Final Report

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apl May Jun

May-Nov ‘07

Dec ’07

Dec ‘07

Jun ‘08

Apl

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Have we got it right?

We are developing a high level process to develop strategy … including for the identification of energy research priorities for New Zealand:

• Have we got the methodology right? …• Have we got the scope right?• What do you see as the priority outputs?• Have we got the level of stakeholder

engagement right? • What changes would you suggest?

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Short Questions?

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

New Zealand’s EnergyScape

1st Stakeholder Workshop

Hydrogen EconomyTony Clemens (CRL Energy)

9 August 2007

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Why Think About Hydrogen Now?

• What will tomorrow’s targets be?– Low carbon?– Energy security?– Efficient energy chains?– Affordable?

• Hydrogen has the potential to meet these in the future.• But …

Planning

ServicesParts develpmentTrainingStandardsResources

…… 10 to 20 years from planning to building

10 to 20 years from planning to building

…… need to start planning now.

need to start planning now.

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Other Advantages …

• Extremely flexible– Can be sourced from a wide range of energy

resources.– Can be stored easily anywhere along the “energy

chain” flexibility beyond our current mindset.

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

• Identify options for the introduction on mainstream hydrogen use

• Compiling awareness-raising “Issues Document”, circulation to and feedback from targeted stakeholders.• Update on current status around the world.• Possible options for New Zealand

Modeling- Database- E3 calculation

Objective 2: Selection of H2 supply chains / first vision

Modeling

Unitec model

Objective 1: Issues Document

Objective 3: Transition Analysis

Objective 4: Define Action Plan

• Including identifying gaps in understanding

April 2007

May 2007

Oct 2007

Dec 2007

Out to Stakeholders

Consultation

Out to Stakeholders

• Identify possible hydrogen futures.• Identify what we don’t know in making them happen.

Consultation

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Robust process …

• Based on EU “HyWays” process:

– Process used in the EU for 300 million people, 12 countries.

– Customised for New Zealand situation.

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Current Status

• “Issues Document” providing background on energy pathways has been produced and issued.

• Considered:– Feedstocks: natural gas; coal; biomass; wind; “grid”;

LPG; and ethanol.– Conversion processes: reformation; gasification;

electrolysis; integrated gasification combined cycle; and fuel cell CHP.

– Distribution: pipeline; compressed; and liquid tanker.– End use: Fuel cell vehicle; ICE vehicle; small scale fuel

cell CHP; distributed generation fuel cell; and steam turbine.

– Worldwide hydrogen research.

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Snippets from the Issues Document

• Current New Zealand hydrogen market is 50-55,000 tpa.– Nearly all refinery (and used on site).– None currently distributed.

• Most likely future markets are for transport and distributed generation (including CHP in homes).*

• If 15% of fleet 100,000 to 150,000 tpa (cf ~ 6 MT liquid fuels in New Zealand today). Plus need to distribute it.

• $billions currently spent on hydrogen research overseas no longer science fiction.

• There are many chains possible – it is a very flexible energy carrier.*

Grid electricity mix

Pre-20152015 to 20302030 to 2050

Technology maturity timescales

* Also can use ethanol from fermented biomass** Transported if not processed on the feedstock site

Feedstock Transport Conversion Distribution End Use

Oth

er

Tran

spor

tatio

n

Foss

ilfu

els

Ren

ewab

leot

her

Stat

iona

ry u

ses

Hydrogen pipeline

Natural gas

Coal

LPG

Coal with CCS

Nat. gas with CCS

Nuclear

Hydrogen import

Fossil fuel

Electrolysis(on site)

Wind

Marine

Geothermal

Biomass

Solar

Hydro

CCS(if used)

Elec

tric

ityN

ucle

ar

Solar

Biomass

Fossil fuel with CCS

Distributed CHP

reformation*

heat generation

electricity

generation

Oil

Liquefied or compressed hydrogen in

tankers

Reformation(on site)

Large scale IGCC to grid

Hydrogen pipeline

Hydrogen tankers

HP pipeline

Tanker

Transport**

Transport**

Ship

Electricity transmission/distribution

network

Reformation

Gasification

Thermochemicalprocess

Photo-biologicalprocess

Reformation

High T water splitting

Photo-electrolysis

Electrolysis (central plant)

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Big Issues Identified

• Hydrogen Production• Hydrogen Storage • Hydrogen Delivery• Hydrogen Utilisation• Education and Public Outreach• Regulations and Codes• Cross Cutting

– Stranded Assets– Competing technolgies– Competition for resources

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Where to from here …

• Energy, Economics and Emissions modelling of preferred chains to identify best options.

• Integrated modelling and scenario analysis.• Identifying the gaps in knowledge.• Integrate with overall Energyscape

framework.

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New Zealand’s EnergyScapeShort Questions?

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

New Zealand’s EnergyScape

1st Stakeholder Workshop

Bioenergy OptionsJohn Gifford (Scion)

9 August 2007

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

FRST RFP / Contract

• Stationary and transport uses of Bioenergy and Biomass

• Include fuel life-cycle analysis with costings and risks

• Maps of potential and existing land use• Identify the international research and possible NZ

links

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Overview of Programme

Stage 1. Situation Analysis 2. Integration 3. Options Assessment 4. Amalgamation

Resource assessmentReview Conversion technologiesDefine Energy products

• National and International Peer Review

• Costings of options• Maps of areas available

for energy crop / feedstock production

• International activities• Initial Energy Pathway

options

Decision support framework:LEAP-EERA

Critical interdependencies

Integration of demand (Renewables and non-renewables)

Development of bioenergy scenarios

Link to key end-user strategies

End-user/stakeholder critique + analysis

Decision support frameworkNZ priorities

Options criteria to employ?

Critical market and project uncertainties

Potential options for bioenergy systems

Potential for bioenergy for New Zealand

Barriers to uptake / uncertainties

Critical international leverage

Opportunities and uncertainties for bioenergy deployment in New Zealand

Framework to review options

Impact of investment spend on creating bioenergy options

Mechanism to incorporateInternational learnings

Timing

Effort

Sept. 07 44% March 08 30% April. 08 26% June 08

44% 30% 26%

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Collaborators

CRL - Combustion and Gasification

NIWA - Algae

Landcare - Agricultural crop & residues, Land Use

Crop & Food - Horticultural crop & residues

Waste Solutions - Effluents, Anaerobic Digestion

Process Developments - Plant costs, case study

Scion – Forests, Residues, SRF, Pyrolysis, Enzyme – Ethanol, Municipalwood waste, wood processing waste, Land use, Resource maps, Projectmanagement

International Programmes; IEA – 21 countries, $ millions of R&D, NZ in two tasks (of 13) and on Executive Committee

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

BIOENERGY What is it ?

Organic, Variable, Purpose Grown or Residual, Low energydensity, Renewable

Supply Chain

Grow Extract Transport Convert Distribute End use

Reuse

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

LegendTerritorial authority2005-2010

0 - 1,000

1,001 - 5,000

5,001 - 15,000

15,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 200,000

200,001 - 350,000

Forestry Residues by Territorial Authority

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

New Zealand land area suitable for different energy crop types (Landcare Research)

Land not available for farming (e.g., urban, indigenous forest)11,385,600

Urban areas and areas still under natural land cover

Unavailable

Unsuitable for cropping or pasture.3,674,900VII, VIII F

Unsuitable for cropping. Moderate limitations under perennial pasture. 5,432,900VIE

Unsuitable for cropping. Suitable for pasture180,400VD

More suitable to pasture. Some cropping in rotation possible.3,675,100IIIe, IIIw, IVC

Some cropping possible, also suitable for pasture.1,038,700IIIs, IIIcB

Highly Suitable for cropping or pasture.1,336,900I, IIA

DescriptionTotal area (ha)

LUC classCategory

3.5 million ha available for forests for timber and energy

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

GIS Model

Delivered Cost

Road Network

Residue Volumes

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Regional Comparison - GIS Model

Northland - 2020

2

2.53

3.5

4

4.55

5.5

6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6Volume (PJ/year)

Cos

t of S

uppl

y ($

/GJ)

Nelson/Malborough - 2020

22.5

33.5

44.5

55.5

6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6Volume (PJ/year)

Cos

t of S

uppl

y ($

/GJ)

Central North Island - 2020

22.5

3

3.54

4.55

5.56

0 1 2 3 4 5 6Volume (PJ/year)

Cos

t of S

uppl

y ($

/GJ)

Coal + carbon taxCoalForest residues

East Coast/Hawkes Bay - 2020

22.5

33.5

44.5

55.5

6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6Volume (PJ/year)

Cos

t of S

uppl

y ($

/GJ)

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Conclusions

• Complex• Huge Potential – for energy and

environmental outcomes• No silver bullet technology• Co-products and by-products will be

important to economic success

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New Zealand’s EnergyScapeFurther Questions?

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

New Zealand’s EnergyScape

1st Stakeholder Workshop

Indigenous Resources and EnergyscapeRilke de Vos (NIWA)

9 August 2007

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

EnergyScape question?

What is wrong with New Zealand’s Energy system?

• Lack of knowledge?• Access to technology?• Skills / capacity?• Enthusiasm?• Limited demand?• Limited capital?

• Insufficient investment?• Dependence on imports?• Regulation?• Lack of planning?• Mixed signals?• Risk averse?

Lack of …

Collaboration & consensus

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Solution?

Common / shared filing system…

• Order of magnitude– Myth busting– No trade secrets– Manageable– Captures variability / uncertainty

• Built with an understanding of end-use– Energy system planning– Decision impact review– Order of magnitude cost, GHG, risk– Identify regional solutions

• Accessible & flexible– Self explanatory– Modifiable– Transparent

• Geospatial– Regional solutions– Infrastructure limitation

LEAP software with supporting databases

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

EnergyScape framework

• Behavior• Efficiency

Resources

• Renewable– Hydro– Wind– Solar– Marine

• “Earth”– Geothermal– Gas– Oil– Coal

• Biofuels• Dist. Generation

• Imports• Exports

Infrastructure

• Traditional– Road– Elec. grid

/ network– Gas distrib.

• Transport• Conversion

– Fertilizer– Coal to liquids– Sequestration– Waste biogas

• Hydrogen

Demand

• Mobility– Aviation– Shipping / rail – Heavy trans.– Passenger

• High grade heat– Cooking– Distillation

• Low grade heat– Space heating– Water heating

• Electricity– Appliances

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Demand

Pathways …

Generation Infrastructure

Wind Turbine

National and Local Grid

Onboard Battery Storage

Wind Resource

Passenger- Kilometres

Supply

Wave energyElectric vehicles

Waste biodigestionFisher Tropp

Fertiliser

Hydrogen Ref

Distributed Gen

Coal to Liquids

Supercritical water

CNG /LNG

REDOX batteries

Wood pellets

1°, 2° & 3° biofuels

MeOH fuel cells

Solar Hot Water

MSW gassifier

Comb Heat Power

Wind dam

Solar Tower

Hydrazine

Thermo-elec

Algae liquids

Petroleum refinery

Methane hydrates Organic PV Hot dry rock

Electric rail

Sequestration

Bio refinery

Landfill gasYour input?

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Resource & infrastructure data

• Asset parameters – Start / commission date– Project & research delay – Longevity– Capacity – Firm; Peak– Efficiency– Geo –location

• Detail per phase– Duration– Cost (capital / operating)– Risk (0-5 stars)– GHG– Water demand

Simple database– All items treated as discrete assets– Phased behavior

Generation Asset Profile

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Ann

ual C

ash

Flow

($'0

00s)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Ener

gy G

ener

atio

n (M

Wh/

h)

Low er bound

Best estimate

Upper bound

Energy generation

Sta

rtR

esea

rch

Con

sent

Fina

nce

&C

onst

ruct

ion

Operation Dec

line

Generation Asset Profile

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Ann

ual C

ash

Flow

($'0

00s)

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

Ener

gy G

ener

atio

n (M

Wh/

h)

Low er bound

Best estimate

Upper bound

Energy generation

Sta

rtR

esea

rch

Con

sent

Fina

nce

&C

onst

ruct

ion

Operation Dec

line

Your input?

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Example - wind resource

• Existing asset register– Peak capacity

• MED, EHMS & NZWEA– Firm capacity

• EC dataset?

• Potential resource– NIWA climate network– NZLAM output– Vestas V63 curve

• Realisable– Urban areas / local opposition– DOC / Maori lands– Slope & elevation

A universal technology, just looking for appropriate price!

Populate the database with good data!!

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Wind resource

• Delays– 1 year research– 1 year consent– 2 year finance & construction

• Risk– 2 star consent– 0 stars in all other phases

• Longevity– 20 - 30 years

• Cost– Typically €1.18±0.35 million/MW

• GHG– Minimal GHG emissions except land

clearance & emergy

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Example - LEAP demand

Households(8 million)

Cooking(100%)

Refrigeration(80%)

Lighting(100%)

Existing (80%, 400 kWh/yr)Urban(30%)

Rural(70%)

Efficient (20%, 300kWh/yr)

Other(50%)

Electrified(100%)

Electrified(20%)

Non-Electrified(80%)

High grade heat

Electricity

Low grade heat

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

2024

2028

2032

2036

2040

2044

2048

AvfuelCoal UnspecifiedDieselElectricityFuel OilGeothermalHydrogenLPGNatural GasOilPetrolWood

Dem

and

(PJ)

Year

Hydrogen demand

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Forecasting …

• Population• GDP• Behavior• Efficiency

Resources

• Uptake rates– SHW / PV– Elect. Vech.– Industrial CHP

• Larger assets– Cost– GHG impact– Env. impact– Regulatory

signals

• Commodity prices

• NZ dollar

Infrastructure

• Demand following• Planning• Absolutes eg.

Glenbrooke Steel

Demand

• Population proxies• Commercial proxies &

logistic growth

Annual Agricultural Production (ANSZIC A01&A02)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Year

Ann

ual p

rodu

ctio

n (k

tonn

e/yr

)

Survey data

Projected

Each scenario needs to define a compete forecast picture

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Sankey outputs

New Zealand's EnergyScape Balance - December 2004 to December 2005

Import Indigenous Primary conversion Infrastructure End-use Export

Nett energy flow in petajoules (PJ)

Secondary conversion

$3 billion

$? billion

$2 billion

$5 billion pa

$12 billion

14,050 stars

1,250 tCO2 pa

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Bringing it all together

• Bridging a need– Framework for common communication– Identifying complete set of pathways– Progressive data input / scenario runs– Tools to review potential impact of policy– Identifying variability / uncertainty– Myth busting

• Improving energy information– Not just awareness– Order of magnitude– Relationships with GHG, water– Climate change surveys (Nielson & BBC)

• Regionalising for councils & Maori

• Energy community can play a role in development

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Short Questions?

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Panel questions?

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New Zealand’s EnergyScape

Have we got it right?

A high level process to develop strategy …

1. Have we got the methodology right? 2. Have we got the scope right?3. What do you see as the priority outputs?4. Have we got the level of stakeholder

engagement right? 5. What changes would you suggest?

Andrew [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]