1st wave america’s voice/ld 2016 tracking poll
TRANSCRIPT
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April 20, 2016
LATINO VOTERS AND
THE 2016 ELECTION __________________________
Sylvia Manzano, PhD
PrincipalLatino Decisions
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Overview
Latino vote will approach 12.5 million in 20
What effect will positioning on immigrationhave on 2016 presidential contenders
1st of three AV/LD studies (July, October) Latino voters in 2016. Check back soon…
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The Research
Sponsored by
Implementedby Latino
Decisions
N= 2,200 Latino registered voters
Nationally representative of registered Latino
Conducted April 3-13, 2016
Landline, cell and online blended sample
Margin of error is +/- 2.1%
Interview in Spanish or English at subject’s d
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The Research
Sponsored by
Implementedby Latino
Decisions
Disclosure note: In August 2015, Matt Barreto and Gary SDecisions were hired as consultants to the Hillary Clinton
campaign. This study was not coordinated, sponsored, or
endorsed by any campaign, party, or political organization
directed by Dr. Sylvia Manzano, Principal at Latino Decisio
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Most Important Issue Facing Latin
Community: Immigration
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
What are the
most
important
issues facing
the Latino
community
that you thinkCongress and
the President
should
address?
41%
24%
16%
Immigration Economy Education Ant
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41%
24%
16%
10%
Immigration
Economy
Education
Anti-Latino/immigrantdiscrimination
What are the most important issues facing the Latino
community that you think Congress and the Presidentshould address?
13%
13%
Economy
Immigration
Education
Health care
What are the most important issues tha
and the President should address?
Immigration Remains High Prio
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Favorability Indicators
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
73%
61%
61%
36%
27%
9%
23%
32%
24%
52%
37%
87%
4
7
15
12
36
4
Obama
Clinton
Sanders
Cruz
Kasich
Trump
Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know
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Favorability Indicators
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
73%
61%
61%
36%
27%
9%
23%
32%
24%
52%
37%
87%
4
7
15
12
36
4
Obama
Clinton
Sanders
Cruz
Kasich
Trump
Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know
Among self-identified Republi
73% Trump unfavorable
56% Cruz unfavorable
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Clinton Match-Ups
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
76%Clinton
64%Clinton
11%Trump
29%Cruz
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Sanders Match-Ups
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
78%Sanders
65%Sanders
11%Trump
26%Cruz
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Perceptions of Party:
Interest in Latino Community
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
Which statementdo you agree withmost: TheRepublican/Democratic Party:
Truly cares aboutthe Latinocommunity
Doesn’t care toomuch aboutLatinos
Is sometimeshostile to theLatino community
14%
42%
31%
53%
20%
12%
Truly cares Doesn't care much Hostile
Republican Party Democratic Party
73% believe GOP e
doesn’t care or is
hosti le to Latinos
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Perceptions of Party:
Increasing Welcome or Hostility
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
In recent years,do you think theRepublican/Democraticparty hasbecome:
More welcomingto Latinos,
More hostile toLatinos,
Or hasn’t reallychanged
15%
42%
35
47%
10%
Welcoming Hostile N
Republicans Democrats
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Perceptions of Party:
Increasing Welcome or Hostility
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
In recent years,do you think theRepublican/Democraticparty hasbecome:
More welcomingto Latinos,
More hostile toLatinos,
Or hasn’t reallychanged
15%
42%
35
47%
10%
Welcoming Hostile N
Republicans Democrats
C did I i i Vi
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Candidate Immigration Views
Impact Party
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
Do [candidate]
views on
immigrants or
immigration
make you
more-or-less
likely to vote for
the [candidate
party] in
November?
Trump
9%
Cruz
22%
Sanders
63%
-78%-55%
-15%
-100%
-75%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
More likely vote for candidate's party Less likely vote for can
I t f P id ti l C did t
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Impact of Presidential Candidates
Support / Opposition to DACA on V
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
In June 2012 PresidentObama announced the
deferred action for
childhood arrivals
program (DACA) that
provides temporary legal
work permits to
undocumented
immigrant youth, called
DREAMers. TheRepublican presidential
candidates want to end
this program. Does this
make you more-or-less
likely to vote for the
Republican Party this
November?
12%
73%
More Likely Less Likely N
I t f P id ti l C did t
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Impact of Presidential Candidates
Support / Opposition to DACA on V
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
In June 2012 PresidentObama announced the
deferred action for
childhood arrivals
program (DACA) that
provides temporary legal
work permits to
undocumented
immigrant youth, called
DREAMers. TheDemocratic presidential
candidates want to
continue this program.
Does this make you
more-or-less likely to
vote for the Democratic
Party this November?
74%
13%
More Likely Less Likely N
Democratic
I t f P id ti l C did t
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Impact of Presidential Candidates
Support / Opposition to DACA on V
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
Democratic candidateswant to continue DAPA.
Does this make you
more/less likely to vote
for a Democrat in
November?
Republican candidates
want to end DACA.
Does this make youmore/less likely to vote
for a Republican in
November?
74%
13% 13%12%
73%
More Likely Less Likely No effe
Democratic Republican
Note: 33%
Latino vot
DACA app
I t f P id ti l C did t
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Impact of Presidential Candidates
Support / Opposition to DAPA on V
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
14%
74%
More Likely Less Likely N
Republican
In November of 2014President Obama took
executive action, known as
DAPA, to stop the deportation
of immigrant parents with
American children who have
been in the U.S. for five years
or more. DAPA would allow
these immigrants to apply for
temporary work permits. The
Republican presidential
candidates want to end this
program. Does this make you
more-or-less likely to vote for
the Republican Party this
November?
I t f P id ti l C did t
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Impact of Presidential Candidates
Support / Opposition to DAPA on V
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
In November of 2014President Obama took
executive action, known as
DAPA, to stop the deportation
of immigrant parents with
American children who have
been in the U.S. for five years
or more. DAPA would allow
these immigrants to apply for
temporary work permits. The
Democratic presidential
candidates want to continue
this program. Does this make
you more-or-less likely to vote
for the Democratic Party this
November?
74%
15%
More Likely Less Likely N
Democratic
Impact of Presidential Candidates
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Impact of Presidential Candidates
Support / Opposition to DAPA on V
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
Democraticcandidates want tocontinue DAPA.Does this makeyou more/less likelyto vote for aDemocrat inNovember?
Republicancandidates want to
end DACA. Doesthis make youmore/less likely tovote for aRepublican inNovember?
74%
15%
2
14%
74%
More Likely Less Likely N
Democratic Republican
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Trump: Deportation forces
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
Republicanpresidentialcandidate DonaldTrump haspromised that if heis elected, he willwould deport everyundocumented
immigrant throughthe use ofdeportation forces.Does this make youmore-or-less likelyto vote for Trump?
MuchMore 5%
SomewhatLess
7%
MuchLess83%
DK3%
Net
-83
Less
35% of Latino
know someon
deported or de
for immigratio
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Cruz: Self-Deport
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
Republicanpresidentialcandidate Ted Cruzhas promised that ifhe is electedpresident he willdeport everyundocumented
immigrant throughself-deportation.Does this make youmore-or-less likelyto vote for Cruz?
MuchMore 5%
SomewhatMore 2%
SomewhatLess13%
MuchLess61%
Don’t
Know12%
Net
-60
Less
35% of Latino
know someon
deported or de
for immigratio
Latino Voter Ties to
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Latino Voter Ties to
Undocumented Community
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
Thinking about allthe people in your
family, your friends,
co-workers, and
other people you
know, do you know
anyone who is an
undocumentedimmigrant?
Yes57%
DK4%
No39%
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Interest and Enthusiasm 201
Thinking aheadto the November
2016 presidential
election, would
you say you are
more
enthusiastic
about voting in
2016, or that you
were more
enthusiastic
about voting
back in 2012?
More 201648%
Same16%
More 201231%
NotSure5%
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
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Reason for Enthusiasm in 2016
Source: America’s Voice/Latino Decisions National Survey April 2016
What isdifferent about
2016 that
makes you
more
enthusiastic to
vote this time?
1%
3%
3%
3%
4%
10%
13%
16%
Want to elect Rubio
Against Clinton
Elect Cruz
Against Cruz
Vote for 1st Latino president
Vote for 1st woman president
Elect Sanders
Elect Clinton
Against Trump
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Key Findings
See parties heading in opposite directions on immigand general disposition towards them as Latinos.
Spike in concern about anti-Latino/immigrant discrimination
Enthusiasm largely driven by interest in stopping Trump.
Ties to immigrant community at center of policy differenc
political attacks: More than half know someone undocumented
1 out of 3 know someone deported/detained
1 out of 3 also know DACA applicants
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TOPLINES AND CROSSTABS
POSTED AT LATINODECISIONS.CO