2 - 5 - lecture 5 - example cuban missile crisis - part 1 [without face - 730]

7/27/2019 2 - 5 - Lecture 5 - Example Cuban Missile Crisis - Part 1 [Without Face - 730]

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Now that you have some idea of March'slogics,and passing references to culture,coalitions, and anarchic decisionenvironments.We can turn to Allison's study of theCuban Missile Crisis.Why, why the Cuban missile crisis?It's clearly a policy environment.but it has lots of nicequalities applicable to nonprofits andgovernment organizations.In fact crisis management is common in, inmany organizations.And in many instances the stakes ofpolicies and decisions are enourmous.Take for example the United States we haveno child left behind is thismassive policy effort in education thatcreatescrises in schools and whether they getmoney.Take for example harassment and grievance

claimswithin organizations, suicides and deathswithin organizations.In these circumstances what do you do?How can you describe what happened and howpeople reactedand whether people followed some kind of areasonable procedure?How can we successfully manage in thosesituations?And here we have kind of a wonderfulexample of the Cuban missile crisis that'sbeen well laid out by Graham Allison for

us to begin this kind of conversation.The Cuban missile crisis was a huge event.It was arguably the closest we came toworld warthree, when well over a 100 million peoplecould have died.In fact John Kennedy, the president at thetime in the United States, is quoted asestimating the chance of failure in thateventas one and three, or even one and two.It's a little too close for comfort formost of us.

because of this, analysts want tounderstand how national governments andtheirorganizations maneuver crisis.they want to get a better sense for how toprevent disasters in the future, andpossibly manage these crises better.Let me give a brief summary of the CubanMissile Crisis, in case anyone isunfamiliar with it.



The events that we're going to discussoccurred back in 1962.And it led the United States to be in it'shigher state of war-readiness ever.And the Soviet field commanderswere prepared to use battlefield nuclearweapons to defend Cuba, if invaded.Fortunately, war was averted.A little context may help you though.back in 1962 the Soviet missile could onlyreach Europe.While US missiles could reach the entireSovietUnion, so this was a time of advantagefor the United States, and upon meetingwithKennedy at a summit, the Soviet NikitaKruschev walkedaway thinking somewhat little of Kennedyas a statesmen and thoughtthat he might have an upper hand in somekind of encounter.So in April 1962, Khrushchev started thinkthat

the placement of intermediate rangemissiles in Cubacould deter potential US attack againstthe SovietUnion and serve their interest of de tat,right.Fidel Castro, on the other hand, in Cuba,was worried the US would attack againafter it failedto do so in the Bay of Pigs in 1971.Fidel approved Khrushchev's plan to placemissiles on the island.And saw them as a deterrent to a US

invasion of Cuba.So the two sides kind of agreed to havethis happen.In the summer of 1962, the Soviet Unionbegan to secretly build, it's missiles andinstallations in Cuba.The crisis for the United States beganaround October 15, 1962 when US,u-2 reconnaissance planes photographedSoviet missiles underconstruction in Cuba, and they look though[INAUDIBLE]the plans are as follows and the kind of

reconnaissance photos, look like the ones,on the screen now.At the time, when President Kennedywas informed of these installations, heconvenedwhat was called the ExComm a, a group ofhis 12 most important advisers.An ExComm met, for a bunch of days sevendays,and Kennedy decided to impose a naval



quarantine around Cubain this meetings.quite a few key actors were in this groupfromRobert Kennedy who was the Attorneygeneral, Dean Rusk theUS secretary of state, George Ball who isthe under-secretaryof state, John McCohn, George, GeorgeBundy, the National Security advisor.and Robert McNamara, very important figurewho was prettydomineering in the meetings was theSecretary of Defense.and then Mulin Thompson, an Ambassador atlarge.the former US Ambassador u, the SovietUnionis the only Russian expert on thatcommittee.On October 22nd, Kennedy announced thediscovery of the missileinstallations to the public and hisdecision to quarantine the island.

And here you see the letter that hewrote, to Khrushchev announcing his,being, upset about,the, the state of events.On October 23rd, Kennedy orders thequarantineto actually occur the blockade againstCuba.he also proclaimed that any nuclearmissile launched fromCuba would be regarded as an attack on theUnitedStates by the Soviet Union, and he

demanded thatthe Soviets remove all of their offensiveweapons from Cuba.And as you'll see here, you can see theblockadecommittee signing that act, and then the,the planes on thetarmac, are spread out in case of, a, acounter attack,or some kind of attack, on the UnitedStates in Florida.The[INAUDIBLE]

bombs would, would not hit all the planesat once.On October 23, Khrushchev wrote Kennedystating the quarantine constituting an actof aggression propelling humankind intothe abyss of a world nuclear missile war.On the 25th, Russian vessels turned awayfrom the blockade.So they saw eyeball to eyeball as DeanRusk said.



And then on the 25th, the blockade waspulledout further to see because Kennedy and,and his naval commanders wereworried about mistakes and boarding in acraft that might trigger a nuclear war.So tensions were pretty high.And you know, Kennedy raised militaryreadiness to DEFCON-2 on the 25th.On the 26th, the ExComm received aletter from Khrushchev proposing theremoval of Sovietmissiles and personnel if the US canguarantee they would not invade Cuba.On October 27th, a U-2 plane was shotdown over Cuba, and the ExComm received asecondletter from Khrushchev demanding theremoval of US missilesin Turkey in exchange for Soviet missilesin Cuba.At this point, the Trollope Ploy was, wasdone, which isthe United States responded to the first

letter, accepting the conditions andboth sides largely agreed to this.so it was kind of an interesting ploy,and deal of compromise in trying to, to,get advantage of the situation.On October 28th, tensions eased a bit whenKhrushchev publicly announced thathe would dismantle the installations andreturn the missiles to the Soviet Union.And he expressed his trust the UnitedStates would not invade Cuba.Further negotiations arose to implementthe October 28th agreement and

during that time the US secretly removedmissiles from Turkey.And here you see photos of, of the actualeffortto kind of observe and record the actualremoval of missiles[INAUDIBLE]that was actually occurring.

2 - 5 - lecture 5 - example cuban missile crisis - part 1 [without face - 730]

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