GLOBAL TRENDS IN SCHOLARLY PUBLISHINGSociety for Scholarly Publishing2009 Annual Meeting

Keith CollierVP & General Manager, ScholarOneThomson Reuters

TOPICS

• Scholarly & Scientific Research at Thomson Reuters

• Global Peer Review Trends

• Global Research Evaluation Trends

• What does it mean?

THOMSON REUTER’S VIEW OF SCHOLARLY RESEARCH

Discovery

• Web of Knowledge

• Web of Science

Publishing, Authoring, and Collaboration

• ScholarOne

• EndNote

Performance Evaluation

• Essential Science Indicators

• Journal Citation Reports (impact factors

• Research Services

SearchesDownloads

SubmissionsAcceptances

Citations# of Papers

Key Metrics

THOMSON REUTER’S VIEW OF SCHOLARLY RESEARCH

Discovery

• Web of Knowledge

• Web of Science

Publishing, Authoring, and Collaboration

• ScholarOne

• EndNote

Performance Evaluation

• Essential Science Indicators

• Journal Citation Reports (impact factors

• Research Services

SearchesDownloads

SubmissionsAcceptances

Citations# of Papers

Key Metrics

TOTAL ORIGINAL SUBMISSIONS THROUGH SCHOLARONE BY COUNTRY (2002 – 2008)

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

SUBMISSION GROWTH BY COUNTRY (TOP 17)

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

United States

China

United Kingdom

Japan

Germany

Italy

Canada

India

France

Spain

Australia

Turkey

Korea, Republic of

Taiwan

Netherlands

Brazil

Sweden

245 446 694 1074 1554 2155 2805# of Journals

(sample size)

TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN

43%

10%

10%

8%

6%

6%

6%

4%

4%3%

2002

United States

Japan

United Kingdom

Germany

Italy

France

Canada

Spain

China

Australia

TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN

42%

10%

10%

7%

6%

6%

5%

5%

5%4%

2003

United States

United Kingdom

Japan

Germany

Italy

France

Canada

China

Spain

Australia

TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN

39%

10%10%

8%

7%

6%

6%

5%

5%4%

2004

United States

United Kingdom

Japan

Germany

China

Italy

Canada

France

Spain

Korea, Republic of

TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN

37%

10%

10%

9%

7%

6%

6%

5%

5%5%

2005

United States

United Kingdom

China

Japan

Germany

Italy

Canada

France

Spain

Turkey

TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN

36%

12%

10%

9%

7%

6%

5%

5%

5%5%

2006

United States

China

United Kingdom

Japan

Germany

Italy

Canada

India

France

Spain

TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN

37%

13%10%

8%

7%

6%

6%

5%

4%4%

2007

United States

China

United Kingdom

Japan

Germany

India

Italy

Canada

France

Spain

TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN

38%

15%

10%

8%

7%

6%

6%

5%

5%

2008

United States

China

United Kingdom

Japan

India

Germany

Canada

Italy

Australia

TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN

36%

15%10%

8%

7%

6%

5%

5%

4%4%

2009 YTD

United States

China

United Kingdom

Japan

India

Germany

Canada

Italy

Spain

France

AVG ANNUAL SUBMISSION GROWTH (2002 – 2008)JOURNALS WITH AT LEAST 5,000 SUBMISSIONS IN 2008

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Iran, Islamic

Republic of

China India Taiwan Turkey Brazil Greece Poland Korea, Republic of

Australia

EXPECT MORE SUBMISSIONS RELATIVE TO OTHER COUNTRIES FROM THESE “HOT SPOTS”

PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS

34%

18%10%

7%

7%

6%

5%

5%

4%4%

2009 Projected

United States

China

United Kingdom

India

Japan

Germany

Canada

Italy

Turkey

Australia

PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS

31%

21%9%

8%

6%

5%

5%

5%

5%5%

2010 Projected

United States

China

United Kingdom

India

Japan

Germany

Turkey

Taiwan

Canada

Italy

PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS

28%

25%

9%

8%

6%

5%

5%

5%

5%4%

2011 Projected

United States

China

India

United Kingdom

Japan

Iran, Islamic Republic of

Turkey

Taiwan

Germany

Canada

PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS

29%

24%10%

7%

6%

6%

5%

5%

4%4%

2012 Projected

China

United States

India

United Kingdom

Iran, Islamic Republic of

Turkey

Taiwan

Japan

Korea, Republic of

Germany

PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS

32%

21%10%

8%

6%

6%

6%

4%

4%3%

2013 Projected

China

United States

India

Iran, Islamic Republic of

United Kingdom

Taiwan

Turkey

Japan

Korea, Republic of

Brazil

TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS PROJECTED CHANGE OVER 10 YEARS…

32%

21%10%

8%

6%

6%

6%

4%4% 3%

2013 Projected

China

United States

India

Iran, Islamic Republic of

United Kingdom

Taiwan

Turkey

Japan

Korea, Republic of

Brazil

42%

10%10%

7%

6%

6%

5%

5%5%

4%

2003

United States

United Kingdom

Japan

Germany

Italy

France

Canada

China

Spain

Australia

2002-2008 ACCEPTANCE RATIOSCOUNTRIES WITH MORE THAN 10,000 SUBMISSIONS

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2002-2008 ACCEPTANCE RATIOSCOUNTRIES WITH MORE THAN 10,000 SUBMISSIONS

PEER REVIEW CHALLENGES COMING?COUNTRIES WITH GROWING SUBMISSIONS AND LOWER ACCEPTANCE RATES

SCIENTIFIC & SCHOLARLY RESEARCH’S VIEW OF SCHOLARLY RESEARCH

Discovery

• Web of Knowledge

• Web of Science

Publishing, Authoring, and Collaboration

• ScholarOne

• EndNote

Performance Evaluation

• Essential Science Indicators

• Journal Citation Reports

• Research Services

SearchesDownloads

SubmissionsAcceptances

Citations# of Papers

Key Metrics

ESSENTIAL SCIENCE INDICATORS – TOP 20 COUNTRIES (ALL FIELDS)RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF PAPERS (1998 – 2008)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

ESSENTIAL SCIENCE INDICATORS – TOP 20 COUNTRIES (ALL FIELDS)RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF CITATIONS (1998 – 2008)

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

ESSENTIAL SCIENCE INDICATORS – TOP 20 COUNTRIES (ALL FIELDS)RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF CITATIONS PER PAPER

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

ESSENTIAL SCIENCE INDICATORS – TOP 50 COUNTRIES (ALL FIELDS)RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF CITATIONS PER PAPER

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

SW

ITZ

ER

LA

ND

US

A

DE

NM

AR

K

NE

TH

ER

LA

ND

S

SC

OT

LA

ND

SW

ED

EN

EN

GLA

ND

FIN

LA

ND

CA

NA

DA

BE

LG

IUM

GE

RM

AN

Y

AU

ST

RIA

ISR

AE

L

NO

RW

AY

FR

AN

CE

WA

LE

S

AU

ST

RA

LIA

ITA

LY

IRE

LA

ND

NO

RT

H IR

ELA

ND

NE

W Z

EA

LA

ND

JA

PA

N

SP

AIN

HU

NG

AR

Y

CH

ILE

PO

RT

UG

AL

SIN

GA

PO

RE

SO

UT

H A

FR

ICA

GR

EE

CE

AR

GE

NT

INA

CZ

EC

H R

EP

UB

LIC

TH

AIL

AN

D

ME

XIC

O

SLO

VE

NIA

PO

LA

ND

SO

UT

H K

OR

EA

VE

NE

ZU

ELA

TA

IWA

N

BR

AZ

IL

SLO

VA

KIA

BU

LG

AR

IA

CR

OA

TIA

PE

OP

LE

S R

CH

INA

IND

IA

RU

SS

IA

MO

RO

CC

O

EG

YP

T

MA

LA

YS

IA

TU

RK

EY

RO

MA

NIA

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN (THOMSON REUTERS PERSPECTIVE)

• Challenges for Peer Review

– Increasing submissions, but from countries with lower acceptance rates and lower citations

• Focus on Regional Science

– More visibility and use of regional journals

• Internationalize Tools & Services

THE TWO-WAY STREET: THOMSON REUTERS

• International version of tools

– Web of Science

– EndNote

– ScholarOne

• Expanded Regional Coverage in WoS

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Total WoS 8,834 9,109 9,337 10,755 11,035

Growth +275 (3%) +228 (2.5%)

+1,418 (15%)

+280 (2.6%)

PERCENT OF WORLD PAPERS FOR OVERALL COUNTRY IN 1 YEAR PERIODS CITED TO PRESENT