[2] covid-19 infection tracking, us hotspots and second ...€¦ · eye on the market • michael...

EYE ON THE M ARKET • M I CHAEL CEMB ALEST • J .P . MORG AN Last u p dat e d 11/ 10/ 202 0

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1

[2] COVID-19 infection and mortality tracking in the US and around the world

This section analyzes COVID infections and mortality reported to local, federal and intergovernmental agencies, and are heavily influenced by testing rates and differences in government reporting standards and capabilities. As we explain in Section 5, serology tests suggest that the true number of COVID infections may be 10x-20x higher than the number of reported infections. However, trends in reported infections are still important to monitor, since they influence government policy and the behavior of citizens and companies.

Table of contents

1. What’s new: a look at recent notable changes in infection and mortality……………………………………………………………..2

2. Summary of global and US infection/mortality trends…………………………………………………………………………………………..3

3. COVID at a glance (countries and US states), and the reasons for falling mortality trends….…………………….............4

4. Infections and mortality snapshots: current vs peak levels of infection and mortality………………………………..……....5

5. Global and US infection and mortality threshold levels………………………………………………………………………………...........7

6. US hotspot infection, hospitalization and mortality tracking…………………………………………………………………………………8

7. Country level infection, hospitalization and mortality trends…………………………………………………….……………………..…11

Comments on Africa data. In part 7, several countries show up with almost no COVID outbreak reported. In cases like New Zealand, Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam and South Korea, we interpret the lack of a material outbreak as possible based on the quality of data reporting and testing taking place. Other countries which report practically no material incidence of COVID include Nigeria, Kenya, Angola, DR Congo, Tanzania and Mozambique. According to various news reports1, there‘s a shortage of reliable data in many of these countries, and the lack of funds to carry out broad scale testing. On the other hand, while infections can be obscured, it’s harder to obscure a sharp rise in mortality; even when accounting for some under-reporting of deaths, Africa mortality rates are still much lower than expected. The few antibody surveys conducted in Africa reveal COVID prevalence that is similar to other European countries; in other words, COVID is spreading in Africa as it is elsewhere. The most likely explanation for lower relative mortality is age: Africa’s median age is 18, compared to 35 in North America and 42 in Europe. Since those over age 65 experience 80 % of COVID mortality, age distributions are the most likely reason for lower African COVID mortality rates.

Additional supplementary materials are available upon request: COVID mortality distributions and probabilities by age bracket and US state, COVID mortality per mm vs Case Fatality Rates by country and US state, and COVID infections by age group by US state.

On data sources. We generally use infection and mortality data from Johns Hopkins, with any exceptions noted in chart sources. While JHU data usually match sources such as covidtracking.com and Worldometers, this is not always the case. Any large differences usually work themselves out over time; even so, such differences are a warning against over-extrapolating any short term trends seen in the data. There are also patterns in some countries in which tests and infections drop over the weekend, only to rise the following week. Other anomalies: countries and US states sometimes make large one-time additions or subtractions to infections or deaths data to reflect over- or underestimations made over the course of the entire pandemic. JHU and other data providers do not amortize such adjustments over time and simply reflect them on the day they are made; we do the same.

1 Examples include “In Africa, lack of coronavirus data raises fears of silent epidemic”, Reuters, July 8, 2020; and “Corona-free? How disinformation could be clouding the true pandemic picture in Africa”, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, September 21, 2020.

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2

What’s new: Northeast US, Europe, Latin America, etc

“Big Sky” US states are experiencing infection levels that are around 5x higher than adjacent Canadian provinces. The Northeastern US is now experiencing a material rise in infections as well after a very quiet summer

The US positive testing rate is rising more slowly than infections, suggesting that a rise in testing explains many new infections; the opposite is true in most of Europe, where testing only explains a small part of the spike

The increase in infections in Western Europe surpasses Spring levels; hospitalization and mortality levels are now starting to rise as well

Infections in many Latin American countries are rolling over now from very high levels

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What a difference a border makes

Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. November 09, 2020

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3

Summary of global and US infection/mortality trends

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4

COVID at a glance: infections and mortality per mm, and the falling age of infected persons

Lower mortality rates in the developed world

Lower mortality rates in the developed world (when compared to the spring of 2020) appear to reflect the lower age of more recently infected persons, less overcrowded hospitals, and more informed standards of patient care (less unnecessary ventilation when oxygenation will suffice, and the use of steroids and blood thinners). The charts below show shifting COVID patient age levels for the US and Switzerland. In Section 4, see pages 6-7 for a discussion of the empirically measured benefits of steroids like dexamethasone and of anti-coagulants and other blood thinners.

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COVID at a glance: trailing 7 day infection and mortality per mmMortality per mm, 7 day average


States not shown since they are off the chart: WI IA SD ND Countries not shown since they are off the chart: CZE BEL

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Source: CDC. October 2020.

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Switzerland first wave vs second wave Distribution of COVID infections by age group





5

Infections and mortality snapshots: current vs peak levels of infection and mortality

The two charts below show peak and current levels of infection (top chart) and mortality (bottom chart) for the 50 largest countries in the world based on GDP. These countries represent 94% of global GDP.

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Infection levels for the largest 50 countries based on GDP, peak vs currentSorted by trailing 7 day average infection rate per mm people

Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Countries shown represent 94% of World GDP.November 09, 2020.

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Mortality levels for the largest 50 countries based on GDP, peak vs currentSorted by trailing 7 day average mortality rate per mm people

Source: Johns Hopkins University, IMF, JPMAM. Countries shown represent 94% of World GDP.November 09, 2020.





6

The three charts below show peak and current levels of infection (first chart), mortality (second chart) and the positive testing rate (third chart) for the 50 US states and DC.

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Latest infection rate per mm

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Source: COVID Tracking Project, JPMAM. November 09, 2020.





7

Global and US infection and mortality threshold levels

The charts below track the percentages of the global and US economy with infection and mortality levels that surpass indicated thresholds. The geographical units are countries for the global economy, and states for the US economy.

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Global COVID infection thresholds

Source: JHU, JPMAM. 11/09/2020. 7 day averages.

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Global COVID mortality thresholds

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Source: Covid Tracking, JPMAM. 11/09/2020. 7 day averages.

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Source:JHU, JPMAM. 11/09/2020. 7 day averages.

US COVID mortality thresholds





8

US hotspot infection, hospitalization and mortality tracking2

The charts below track infection, hospitalization, testing, mortality and doctor visit data for the US in aggregate and for US infection hotspots. See section 6 for a state-by-state chartpack which covers the full range of infection, mortality, hospitalization, testing and hospital utilization data.

2 We dynamically define hotspot states in three ways: the largest one-month increase in new daily infections per mm people, the highest levels of infection and the highest rates of positive PCR testing. If a state shows up as top 7 on any of these 3 metrics, they are included as a hotspot.

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United States virus trackingDaily deaths as a % of current hospitalizations






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Hotspots: ID IL IA KS MN MT NE ND SD WI WYNew daily infections per mm Percentage

Source: COVID Tracking, CMU, JPMAM. 11/9/2020. 7 day avgs.

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United States virus trackingNew daily infections per mm Percentage

Source: COVID Tracking, CMU, JPMAM. 11/9/2020. 7 day avgs.

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Testing by state category



US daily tests per mm people, 7 day avg

Hot spots: ID IL IA KS MN MT NE ND SD WI WY





10

Why aren’t US infections declining more rapidly?

The US does not have internal border controls; as a result, focusing too much on infections at the state level ignores the ease with which US citizens cross state lines. As shown below, former Hotspot states have now transmitted the infection to new Hotspot states.

Source: JHU, JPMAM. November 9, 2020.

Without border controls, Hotspots keep shifting

Current hotspot

Hotspot 30 days ago

Hotspot 60 days ago

Hotspot 90 days ago

Not a hotspot in last 90 days





11

Country level infection, hospitalization and mortality trends

This section contains infection, hospitalization and mortality trends for the 68 countries that are among the Top 50 Countries by GDP, or among the Top 50 Countries by Population. The country charts appear in descending order of GDP, and are all scaled relative to Europe for comparability purposes. Note that high frequency hospitalization data is only available for a subset of the countries below.

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27



Deaths per mm (RHS)

US daily infections vs mortality

Source: JHU, COVID Tracking, JPMAM. 11/09/2020. 7 day avg.

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

China daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Japan daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Germany daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

India daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27



Deaths per mm (RHS)

United Kingdom daily infections vs mortality

Source: JHU, ECDC, JPMAM. 11/09/2020. 7 day avg.

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27



Deaths per mm (RHS)

France daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27



Deaths per mm (RHS)

Italy daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Brazil daily infections vs mortality






12

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27



Deaths per mm (RHS)

Canada daily infections vs mortality

Source: JHU, Esri Canada, JPMAM. 11/09/2020. 7 day avg.

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Russia daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

South Korea daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Spain daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27



Deaths per mm (RHS)

Australia daily infections vs mortality

Source: JHU, aucovid19data, JPMAM. 11/09/2020. 7 day avg.

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Mexico daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Indonesia daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Netherlands daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Saudi Arabia daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Turkey daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Switzerland daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Taiwan daily infections vs mortality






13

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27



Deaths per mm (RHS)

Poland daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Iran daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Thailand daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Sweden daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27



Deaths per mm (RHS)

Belgium daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Argentina daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27



Deaths per mm (RHS)

Austria daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

United Arab Emirates daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27



Deaths per mm (RHS)

Norway daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Nigeria daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Israel daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27



Deaths per mm (RHS)

Ireland daily infections vs mortality






14

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Singapore daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Malaysia daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Philippines daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

South Africa daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27



Deaths per mm (RHS)

Denmark daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Vietnam daily infections vs mortality


0.0

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Colombia daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Egypt daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Bangladesh daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Chile daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Pakistan daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27



Deaths per mm (RHS)

Finland daily infections vs mortality






15

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Romania daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27



Deaths per mm (RHS)

Czechia daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27



Deaths per mm (RHS)

Portugal daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Peru daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

New Zealand daily infections vs mortality


0.0

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Iraq daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Algeria daily infections vs mortality


0.0

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Ukraine daily infections vs mortality


0.0

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0

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Morocco daily infections vs mortality


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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Kenya daily infections vs mortality


0.0

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50

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Ethiopia daily infections vs mortality


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50

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Angola daily infections vs mortality






16

0.0

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0

50

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Burma daily infections vs mortality


0.0

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0

50

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Ghana daily infections vs mortality


0.0

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0

50

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Tanzania daily infections vs mortality


0.0

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Uzbekistan daily infections vs mortality


0.0

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0

50

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Congo (Kinshasa) daily infections vs mortality


0.0

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0

50

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Venezuela daily infections vs mortality


0.0

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0

50

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Uganda daily infections vs mortality


0.0

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0

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450

500

3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Nepal daily infections vs mortality


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Yemen daily infections vs mortality


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Afghanistan daily infections vs mortality


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

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400

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3/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 9/27 10/27


Hosp (na)

Deaths per mm (RHS)

Mozambique daily infections vs mortality






17

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