Impact

s of Long-t

erm

Clim

ate

Change

on India

n A

gri

culture

Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture

Hyderabad

G.G

.S.N

.Rao

Pro

ject

Coord

inato

r (A

gro

met

)

G.G

.S.N

.Rao

Pro

ject

Coord

inato

r (A

gro

met

)

Occurs due to changes in

•Composition and

circulation of

•Atm

osphere &

•Oceans

•Hydrological cycle

•Land surface

Climate Change

2007 W

arm

est Y

ear

•Fig

ure

show

s 2007 t

em

per

atu

re a

nom

alies

rela

tive

to t

he

1951-1

980 b

ase

perio

d m

ean.

•The g

lobal m

ean t

em

peratu

re a

nom

aly

, 0.5

7°C

(about

1°F

) w

arm

er t

han

the 1

951-1

980 m

ean, continues

the str

ong w

arm

ing trend o

f th

e p

ast

thir

ty

years

that

has

been confidently attri

bute

d to

th

e effect

of

incre

asing

hum

an-m

ade g

reenhouse

gase

s (G

HG

s) (H

anse

n e

t al. 2

007).

•The e

ight w

arm

est

years

in the G

ISS r

ecord h

ave a

ll o

ccurre

d s

ince 1

998,

and the 1

4 w

arm

est

years in

the r

ecord h

ave

all o

ccurred sin

ce 1

990.

Evidenc

e for

reality

of clim

ate

chang

eEvidenc

e for

reality

of clim

ate

chang

e

Glaciers m

elting

Glaciers m

elting

Glaciers m

elting

1900 2003

Alpine glacier, Austria

1900 2003

Alpine glacier, Austria

1909

Toboggan

Glacier

Alaska

2000

Muir Glacier, Alaska

All-India monsoon rainfall during 1871-2000

Shows no significant long-term

trend

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Years

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

Rainfall (mm)

Annual rainfall

trends

CRIDA

N

Gosw

ami

et a

l.,

Sci

ence

, D

ec.,

200

6

Ch

anges

in

th

e F

requ

ency

Dis

trib

uti

on

of

Extr

emes

C

han

ges

in

th

e F

requ

ency

Dis

trib

uti

on

of

Extr

emes

du

rin

g 1

951

du

rin

g 1

951-- 1

970

and 1

980

1970

an

d 1

980-- 2

000

2000

Climate during last seven years

0.7

2006

Yea

rR

ain

fall D

epartu

re (%

)

2000

-11

2001

-15

2002

-19

2003

+2

2004

-13

2005

-1

2007

1.0

Extreme Events

Extreme Events

All India

All India

Rainfall

Rainfall

••2002 drought

2002 drought

••20 day heat wave during May 2003 in Andhra Pradesh

20 day heat wave during May 2003 in Andhra Pradesh

••Extreme cold winter in the year 2002

Extreme cold winter in the year 2002-- 0303

••Drought like situation in India in July 2004

Drought like situation in India in July 2004

••Abnormal temperatures during March 2004 and Jan 2005

Abnormal temperatures during March 2004 and Jan 2005

••Floods in 2005

Floods in 2005

••Cold wave 2005

Cold wave 2005 --0606

••Floods in arid Rajasthan & AP and drought in NE regions in 2006

Floods in arid Rajasthan & AP and drought in NE regions in 2006

••Abnormal temperatures during 3

Abnormal temperatures during 3rdrdweek of Jan to 1

week of Jan to 1ststweek of Feb 2007

week of Feb 2007

Impact of ISMR anomalies on Crop Production

y = -0.0067x2 + 0.4884x

R2 = 0.5236

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

-25

-20

-15

-10

-50

510

15

20

ISMR anomaly (%)

Crop Production Anomaly (%)

7.1

020

5.8

315

4.2

210

2.2

85

0.0

00

-2.6

1-5

-5.5

5-1

0

-8.8

3-1

5

-12.4

4-2

0

Crop

Production

(Im

pact) %

ISM

R

Anom

aly

Deficient rainfall

has more impact

compared to above

normal rainfall

Ref. M.Rajeevan, NCC,IMD, Pune

Pro

ble

ms w

ith A

gri

culture

in India

•G

reen

Rev

olu

tion fatigue

•Low

pro

duct

ivity in r

ain

fed a

reas

–Sm

all h

old

ings

–Subsist

ence

–M

ercy

of m

onso

on

–Lim

ited

wate

r and land

–D

isea

se, pes

ts, dro

ught, w

eeds

–Sto

rage

and tra

nsp

ort

ation

�C

onven

tional pla

nt im

pro

vem

ent m

ethods are

reach

ing thei

r lim

its

�A

gri

cultura

l gro

wth

is now

<2%

com

pare

d to

3%

in 1

970s

Thus, tec

hnolo

gy m

ust

ev

olv

e and

per

cola

te to the

end-u

ser

at a m

uch

fast

er p

ace

“We must aim at an agricultural growth of 4% per year, if India has to

achieve its ambition of overall economic growth rate of over 8 %

per

annum”

(Prime Minister’s Inaugural Speech at National Conference on Krishi Vigyan

Kendrasin New Delhi. October 27, 2005)

Though the XthPlan assumed a growth rate of 4% for agricultural

production, the reality was different…

. the first 3 years we have not been

able to ensure 1.5% rate of growth…. We are focusing on technological

breakthroughs for scaling up yields…

.

Clim

ate

change

Impact

s on A

gri

culture

•Shifts

in the sow

ing tim

e a

nd length

of grow

ing seaso

ns geogra

phic

ally

•In

most

tropic

al

and s

ub-tropic

al

regio

ns

pote

ntial

yie

lds

are p

roje

cte

d t

o

decrease

for m

ost

proje

cte

d incr

ease

s in

tem

per

atu

re

•In

mid

-latitu

des, c

rop m

odels indic

ate

that

warm

ing o

f le

ss t

han a

few

°C

and th

e ass

ocia

ted in

crease

in

C

O2 concentr

ations

will

lead to

generally

positive r

esp

onse

s and g

enerally n

egative

resp

onse

s w

ith g

reate

rw

arm

ing.

•In

tr

opic

al

agri

cultural

are

as, sim

ilar ass

ess

ments

in

dic

ate

th

at

yie

lds

of

som

e cr

ops

would

decre

ase

w

ith even m

inim

al

increase

s in

te

mperatu

re

because

they

are

near

their

maxim

um

tem

peratu

re tole

rance

•M

ost

of

the

sim

ula

tion s

tudie

s have s

how

n a

decre

ase

in t

he d

uration a

nd

yie

ld o

f crops as te

mperatu

re

increase

d in d

iffe

rent parts

of In

dia

.

•Y

ield

s of

both

kharif

andrabi cr

ops

decre

ase

d a

s te

mper

atu

re

incre

ase

d;

a

2°C

increase

res

ulted in 1

5-1

7 p

er

cent

decre

ase

in t

he

grain

yie

ld o

f both

crops, b

ut bey

ond that th

e d

ecre

ase

was very

hig

h in w

heat.

Pote

ntial Im

pact

s of C

lim

ate

Change

on A

gri

culture

•W

heat

yie

lds

in c

entr

al

India

are

likel

y t

o s

uffer b

y u

p t

o 2

per c

ent

in t

he

pess

imistic s

cenario

but th

ere

is a

lso a

poss

ibility that th

ese

mig

ht im

prove b

y 6

per c

ent if the g

lobal change is optim

istic

•Sorghum

, bein

g a

C4 p

lant, d

oes

not

show

any s

ignific

ant

resp

onse

to incre

ase

in C

O2 a

nd h

ence the

diffe

rent sc

enario

s do n

ot affect its yie

ld.

•The

nutr

itio

nal

quality

of

cere

als a

nd p

ulses

may a

lso b

e m

oder

ate

ly

affec

ted w

hic

h,

in tu

rn,

will

have

conse

quen

ces

for

our

nutr

itio

nal

secu

rity

•The

change

in c

lim

ate

may b

ring a

bout ch

anges

in p

opula

tion d

ynam

ics,

gro

wth

and d

istr

ibution o

f in

sect

s and p

ests

.

•M

ost

crops

have C

3 p

hoto

synth

esis

(resp

onsive to C

02), w

hile m

any w

eeds

are

C4 p

lants

(non-r

esp

onsive to C

O2). T

he

clim

ate

change c

haracte

riz

ed b

y h

igher

CO

2 c

oncentr

ation w

ill fa

vour c

rop g

row

th o

ver w

eeds.

•U

nder the c

lim

ate

change sce

nario

, th

e o

nse

t of th

e sum

mer m

onso

on o

ver India

is p

roje

cte

d to b

e d

ela

yed a

nd o

ften u

ncerta

in.

Pote

ntial Im

pact

s of C

lim

ate

Change

on A

gri

culture

Climate Chan

ge an

d C

rop Productivity

Tem

perature Effects on C

rop Y

ield –

Sev

eral M

ajor Crops

Cro

pTopt,

°C

Tm

ax,

°C

Yie

ld

at Topt,

t/ha

Yie

ld

at 28

°C, t/ha

Yie

ld a

t

32°C

t/ha

% d

ecre

ase

(28 to 3

2 °C

)

Ric

e25

36

7.5

56.3

12.9

354

Soybea

n28

39

3.4

13.4

13.0

610

Dry

bea

n22

32

2.8

71.3

90.0

0100

Pea

nut

25

40

3.3

83.2

22.5

820

Gra

in

sorg

hum

26

35

12.2

411.7

56.9

541

Sta

tion

Cro

p

Increase

in w

ate

r

requir

em

ents

(2020-2

005)

mm

Anak

apalli

Maize

51.7

Groundnut

61.3

Anan

tapur

Groundnut

70.1

Red

gram

174.3

Jagtial

Cotton

60.5

Maize

49.0

Rajen

dranag

arRed

gram

114.5

Groundnut

73.0

Tirupathi

Groundnut

73.0

Projected Crop Water Requirement

Sta

tion

Cro

p

Red

uct

ion in

crop d

ura

tion

(wee

ks)

Anakapalli

Maiz

e1

Groundnut

1

Ananta

pur

Groundnut

1

Red g

ram

1

Jagtial

Cotton

2

Maiz

e1

Raje

ndra

nagar

Red g

ram

2

Sorghum

1

Tir

upath

iG

roundnut

1

Changes in crop duration

Impact

s of ch

angin

g c

lim

ate

on r

ice

pro

duct

ion in T

am

il N

adu

5217

4843 ( -7.1 %)

3218 (-38.3 %)

2200 (-57.8 %)

4858

4348 ( -10.5%)

3556 ( -26.8%)

2458 ( -49.4 %)

3945

3665 ( -7.0%)

3123 ( -20.8 %)

2597 ( -34.1 %)

4367

3977 ( -8.9%)

3145 ( -27.9 %)

2307 (-47.2 %)

4829

4403 ( -8.8 %)

3379 (-30.0 %)

2108 ( -56.3 %)

4920

4576 ( -6.9 %)

3686 ( -25.0 %)

2365 (-51.9 %)

6267

5688 ( -9.2%)

5115 (-17.8%)

4534 ( -27.6 %)

3985

3489 (-12.4 %)

3056 ( -23.3 %)

2340 ( -41.2 %)

5989

5335 ( -10.9 %)

4594 (-23.3 %)

3400 ( -43.2 %)

4156

3712 ( -10.6 %)

3012 (-27.5%)

2511 ( -39.5 %)

4595

4045 ( -11.9 %)

3508 ( -23.6 %)

2977 (-35.2%)

5262

4997 ( -5.0 %)

4565 ( -13.2%)

3181 ( -39.5%)

3510

3254 ( -7.3 %)

2875 ( -18.0 %)

2234 ( -36.3%)

4961

4612 ( -7.0 %)

3852 ( -22.4 %)

2956 ( -40.4%)

4157

3684 ( -11.3 %)

3023 ( -27.2 %)

2643 ( -36.4%)

Base

2020

2050

2080

Tamil

Nadu

-8.7

-23.6

-42.2

Range

-6.9 to 12.4

-13.2 to 38.3

-27.6 to 57.8

Open Top Chamber Facility at CRIDA, Hyderabad

•Under

elevated CO

2

conditions the initiation

of spike was early and

No. of female flowers

per

spike

were

increased

Impact of elevated CO2on

Insect pests of Castor

Extension of oil sardine

fish

populations (>

50%)

to east-co

ast

(the co

lored lines indicate

percentage of All India oil sardine

production)

SST pattern

along the

Indian Coast

Data Source : ICOADS and

AVHRR data from

NOAA/NASA

Clim

ate

change

and Liv

esto

ck

June

1980

65 72 78 80

THI

Reference: Drawn on the basis of data of Hadley Centre U.K.

∆ ∆∆∆T June2020 With Respect to 1980

65 72 78 80

THI

System of Rice Intensification (SRI) Cultivation

Tra

ditiona

l Rice cultiva

tion

•Low seed rate 1 kg/ac

•Less than half the water required

•Crop duration reduced by one month (Nursery 8 days)

•Mostly managed with family labour

•No inorganic fertilizers (weeds are plowed back)

•Yield doubles

•Cost of cultivation reduced (low seed + low labour + no fertilizer)

•Scope for area/ crop diversification Yield doubles

Eco

fri

endly

managem

ent

CRID

A

•R

educe

s th

e nutr

ient lo

ss to the

atm

osp

her

e

•Pro

longed

nutr

ient availability

•Enhance

s fe

rtiliz

er u

se e

ffic

iency

•Sust

enance

of so

il q

uality

Conjunctive use of Inorganic and Organic Nutrients for greater stability

Integrated Nutrient Management

Bio

fert

iliz

ers pla

y a

vital ro

le

Rhizobium

Azospirillum

Azotobacter

Azolla

BGA

Eco

fri

endly

managem

ent

CRID

A

In-situ moisture conservation and water harvesting

Vegetative barrier

Percolation tank

Farm

pond

Conservation furrows

Prosopisjuliflora

has wide

adap

tation to w

ater stress an

d

drought co

nditions

Used as so

urce

material for

drought tolerant gen

esC

ontr

ol

36 d

ays of w

ate

r

withdra

wal

Gen

etic

Shie

ld a

gain

st a

dver

se c

hanges

in p

reci

pitation

Preparing for clim

ate ch

ange

Crop M

ixture-NutriMillets, Pulses and O

ilseed

Enla

rgin

g the

Food B

ask

et

Clim

ate Management (Value added agro advisory service)

�Short, Medium and Long range of weather forecasts has

to be converted to location and farm

ing systems specific

action plans

Inform

ation Technology in

•Quan

titative assessmen

t of specific crop responses at different crop stages to

enhan

ced lev

els of GHG, precipitation and U

V-B

rad

iation.

•Breed

ing agricu

ltural crops for tolerance to high tem

peratures.

•New

area that is mad

e av

ailable for ag

ricu

lture is to be properly categ

orized

and m

apped

to avoid chan

ces of in appropriate land-use choices.

•Probab

ilities of occurren

ce o

f ex

trem

e weather even

ts (droughts &

floods)

and their im

pacts on plant growth.

•The

impacts of

elev

ated

CO2 on plant

soil-w

ater balan

ces

and the

corresponding crop growth should be linked

.

•W

ater b

alan

ce for drought or flood p

rone regions in d

ifferent parts o

f the

world for ch

anging climatic conditions.

•The quality of global m

odeling projections is further improved

with suitab

le

modifications in the global circu

lation m

odels.

•The datab

ases for all the param

eters need to be strengthen

ed.

Futu

re thru

sts

Thank you