2 keynesian and monetarist views on the german unemployment problem

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Keynesi an and Monetarist Views on the German Unemployment Problem As argued in the introduction, persistently high unemployment rates in Germany have led to a lasting controversy on the causes of unemployment and the appro priate policy response. The opposing viewpoints, and in particular the public ex changes on these issues, have often been based either on Keynesian or on mone tarist theories of business cycle fluctuations, leading to very different conclusions regarding the causes and the cure of the unemployment problem. Since this debate is going on since 30 years and is nowhere near a conclusion, this chapter attempts to take stock and offers a review of the arguments exchanged between both sides. A major contribution of this chapter is the new empirical evidence on the Phillips curve relation in Germany. This relation is central to the controversy between the two schools of thought because the slope of the curve is a key parameter determining whether demand policies can have a lasting impact on real variables like the unemployment rate. Since Keynesians and monetarists sharply disagree on this parameter for theoretical grounds, this chapter estimates the Phillips curve using both a Keynesian and a monetarist identification scheme. In addition, the role of demand and supply shocks for fluctuations in unemployment and inflation is investigated using the historical decomposition technique. This serves to explore empirically the explanations offered by the two Phillips curve models regarding the causes of the secular increase in unemployment over the past 30 years. The chapter is organized as follows. Section 2.1 offers a general introduction into the Keynesian and monetarist views on unemployment and inflation. Par ticular attention is paid to the role of demand management policies in the two paradigms for the stabilization of the real economy, since this is of central impor tance to the policy debate. This section contains also a discussion of the NAIRU concept, which modifies the traditional Keynesian view in some important aspects. Section 2.2 contains the empirical evidence on the Phillips curve in Ger many. Before presenting the estimates of the slope of the Keynesian and mone tarist Phillips curves, this section shows that at the business cycle frequency a stable Phillips curve relation is supported by the data. Next, it provides an intro duction into the econometric technique used for testing the slope of the Phillips curve and discusses the identification of the Phillips curve models. Having esti mated these models, the results for the Keynesian and monetarist Phillips curves

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