2nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005

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BINCASTS: BGS Index Nowcasts and Forecasts Alan Thomson and Ellen Clarke, BGS, Edinburgh

SDA ObjectivesThere appears to be a consistent (even increasing?) demand for near real time proxies and forecasts of ‘common’ geomagnetic indices, for space weather applications, and for other studies.

This SDA is therefore designed to make available BGS forecasts and near real time estimates of ‘common’ geomagnetic and solar indices, for academic and other communities, and to make use of BGS real time data capabilities to provide the highest accuracy in index estimates.

BINCASTS is not a package as such, but a collection of data and plots found at www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk

Need to integrate these index data with

2nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005

© NERC All rights reserved

BINCASTS: User Survey and NeedsNo survey of the user community was done: data were solicited by ESA for SWENET.

Some History:In the 1990s ESOC commissioned 1-27 day forecasts of Ap, F10.7 & solar cycle predictions of smoothed monthly Sunspot number, F10.7, Ap, Aa.

Forecast software was written >10 years ago and only recently updated (on request from ESOC) to include a 1-3 day neural network forecasts of Ap.

Nowcasts:

Daily Aaest, 3-hourly aaest, daily Apest, 3-hourly apest,  

Forecasts:

Daily solar radio flux F10.7, geomagnetic Apest index and DRX index (the daily average of

hourly range in the north component of the field in the UK) all for 1-27 days ahead.

Solar cycle forecasts of monthly F10.7, Apest, Aa and Sunspot number.

2nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005

© NERC All rights reserved

BINCASTS: User Satisfaction SurveyFor the community to decide!

Do you need more, or different indices and forecasts?

Are you happy with the near-real time aspects and the quality?

NB: we do not keep a detailed list of user ‘types’ or names, but no commercial access is allowed.

BGS indices and forecasts access 1988-2005

User requests to BGS

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Web Based Delivery

User Login to Menu-Driven System

Nowcasts (Magnetic Indices)

2nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005

© NERC All rights reserved

BINCASTS: ‘Business Plan’BGS is committed long term to near real time operations, e.g.

> We are a World Data Centre for geomagnetism

> We have good working relationships and data access to observatories that contribute to IAGA indices and to INTERMAGNET

> These data products are free to non-commercial users (since a UK public service commitment), at annual staff cost ~5keuro

Forecast and nowcast data will be maintained for the foreseeable future

> can integrate with other data providers if asked

> can develop new proxy indices if there is a need.

We encourage the advertising of these data and feedback: ecla@bgs.ac.uk Real time estimated Ap/ap

2nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005

© NERC All rights reserved

BINCASTS: Prospects for Improvements

Daily 1-27 day Ap and DRX forecasts

The community is encouraged to suggest developments that would keep system ‘attractive’ to users:

- Range indices, dB/dt, … for GIC applications – commercial?

We will continue to make our proxy indices as close as possible to official IAGA endorsed versions.

We will work with other ‘index institutes’ for the benefit of the space weather community.

- INTERMAGNET has begun developments towards real-time operations