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  • BROMLEY JOINT STRATEGIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT 2014

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    2. The Population of Bromley: Demography

    This chapter considers the population of Bromley and how demographic, social

    and environmental factors impact on the health and wellbeing of its residents

    and influence the needs and demands for health and social care services. It

    also considers the impact of estimated population changes in the future.

    Key Points

    The latest (2014) estimate of the resident population of Bromley is

    320,057, having risen by 21,775 since 2001.

    The resident population is expected to increase to 330,361 by 2018 and

    339,154 by 2023.

    Although the number of 0 to 4 year olds is projected to decrease by 2019

    to 21,016 and then to 20,825 by 2024, there has been an increase in the

    number of live births since 2002.

    The proportion of older people in Bromley (aged 65 and over) is

    expected to increase gradually from 17.74% of the population in 2014 to

    17.84% by 2019 and 18.28% by 2024.

    The pattern of population change in the different age groups is variable

    between wards, with some wards, such as Darwin, experiencing a large

    rise in the proportion of young people and others such as Biggin Hill

    experiencing a large rise in the proportion of over 75s.

    The latest (2014) GLA population projection estimates show that 17.34%

    of the population is made up of Black and minority ethnic (BME) groups;

    an increase from 8.4% in 2001.

    The BME group experiencing the greatest increase within Bromleys

    population is the Black African community, from 1.1% of the population in

    2001 to 4.7% of the population in 2024.

    What does this mean for Bromley residents and for children in Bromley

    The numbers of older people in Bromley are rising and health and social care provision needs to reflect the increased need.

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    Current Picture

    When looking at the information in this chapter, it is important to bear in mind

    that the boroughs demographic profile is heavily influenced by a large part of

    the borough being mainly rural. This means that areas in the south of the

    borough, such as Darwin and Biggin Hill, have small communities spread over

    a large rural area as compared to other, more densely populated areas such as

    the North West of the borough.

    Overall Description of Bromley

    Located in South-East London, Bromley is the largest London borough in the

    city. At approximately 150 square kilometres it is 30% larger than the next

    largest borough. It has over 45 conservation areas and a wide range of historic

    and listed buildings.

    Although Bromley is a relatively prosperous area, the communities within

    Bromley differ substantially. The North-East and North-West of the borough

    contend with similar issues (such as higher levels of deprivation and disease

    prevalence) to those found in the inner London Boroughs we border (Lambeth,

    Lewisham, Southwark, Greenwich), while in the South, the borough compares

    more with rural Kent and its issues.

    Bromley benefits from a good number of public parks and open spaces as well

    as sites of natural beauty and nature conservation.

    Figure 2. 1

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    Total Population

    The latest (2014) estimate of the resident population is 320,0571. This

    compares with 335,657 registered with GPs in the borough (January 2014)2.

    The borough council is responsible for providing services to its residents. While

    local health commissioners are responsible for providing services to all of those

    who are registered with a Bromley GP regardless of where they live, they also

    have a responsibility for the health of the boroughs residents at a population

    level.

    Whilst population figures are available from a number of sources, chiefly the

    office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Greater London Authority (GLA),

    this chapter has used the Greater London Authority (GLA) resident population

    as its basis.

    The population rose by 24,482 (8%) between 2001 and 2014. The main

    reasons for this increase are the increase of the number of births within the

    borough and migration of new entrants into the borough from Eastern Europe.

    There is some variation in the population structure between the wards. Cray

    Valley West has the highest proportion of young people and Copers Cope the

    lowest. Chislehurst has the highest proportion of over 75s and Penge & Cator

    the lowest (see table 2.1).

    Figure 2. 2

    1 Source: GLA 2013 Round SHLAA Population Projections SYA

    2 Health and Social Care Information Centre

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    Figure 2. 3

    Table 2. 1: Age structure across the wards in Bromley, 2014

    Source: GLA 2013, Round Population Projections

    No % No %

    Bickley 3649 23.6 1626 10.5

    Biggin Hill 2363 23.0 732 7.1

    Bromley Common& Keston 4132 25.7 1374 8.5

    Bromley Town 4401 24.0 1166 6.4

    Chelsfield & Pratts Bottom 3503 23.6 1381 9.3

    Chislehurst 3515 22.9 1767 11.5

    Clock House 3929 24.5 876 5.5

    Copers Cope 2792 17.5 1334 8.4

    Cray Valley East 4304 27.1 1246 7.9

    Cray Valley West 4999 29.1 1270 7.4

    Crystal Palace 3029 23.5 451 3.5

    Darwin 1199 22.6 538 10.1

    Farnborough a& Crofton 3414 22.9 1926 12.9

    Hayes& Coney Hall 3941 24.1 1453 8.9

    Kelsey & Eden Park 3943 24.2 1536 9.4

    Mottingham &Chislehurst North 2842 27.6 708 6.9

    Orpington 3639 23.1 1779 11.3

    Penge & Cator 4629 25.8 739 4.1

    Petts Wood & Knoll 3153 22.5 1443 10.3

    Plaistow &Sundridge 3812 24.5 1142 7.3

    Shortlands 2267 22.4 1083 10.7

    West Wickham 3594 23.5 1601 10.5

    Bromley 77049 24.1 29185 9.1

    0-19 years 75+ years

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    The age distribution of people in Bromley is very similar to that for England as a

    whole, as illustrated in the population pyramids (Figures 2.4 and 2.5).

    Figure 2. 4

    Figure 2. 5

    Source: ONS 2012-based National Population Projections

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    Population Projections The population of Bromley is just over 320,000, and is projected to rise by 3.9%

    over the next 5 years. (Table 2.2).

    Table 2. 2

    Source: ONS Census 2011 and GLA 2013 Round SHLAA population projections, 2014

    * Working age =16 to 64y for males and females

    Post retirement = Over 64y males and females

    The number of 0 to 4 year olds has gradually been increasing since 2006 and

    will peak in 2017 (21,196) but will then begin to decrease again to 20,381 in

    2031.

    Figure 2. 6

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    Ward Population Projections

    Overall, there is a projected increase in residents across all wards in Bromley. Bromley Town and Darwin are expected to have the highest percentage increase in all wards in 2019 and 2024.

    Table 2. 3

    Source: GLA 2013 Round SHLAA population projections, 2014

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    Figure 2. 7

    The population of Bromley residents aged 75 years and over has been fairly

    stable, but is predicted to rise after 2019.

    Figure 2. 8

    The pattern of population change in the different age groups is not consistent

    between wards, with some wards experiencing a large rise in the proportion of

    young people and others experiencing a large rise in the population of over 75s.

    The largest reduction in the 0-4 year age group will be seen in Clock House

    (11%). For over 75s, the population is projected to increase and the largest

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    increase will be in Biggin Hill and Darwin (32% and 25% respectively) (Figures

    2.9 and 2.10).

    Figure 2. 9

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    Table 2.4

    Source: GLA, 2013 Round Population Projections

    Figure 2. 10

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    Table 2. 5

    GLA, 2013 Round Population Projections

    2014 2019 2024 2019 2024

    Bickley 1626 1685 1895 59 210

    Biggin Hill 732 963 1255 231 292

    Bromley Common & Keston 1374 1467 1704 93 237

    Bromley Town 1166 1198 1407 32 209

    Chelsfield & Pratts Bottom 1381 1541 1816 160 275

    Chislehurst 1767 1796 1981 29 185

    Clock House 876 897 1081 21 184

    Copers Cope 1334 1288 1440 -46 152

    Cray Valley East 1246 1330 1586 84 256

    Cray Valley West 1270 1330 1505 60 175

    Crystal Palace 451 478 591 27 113

    Darwin 538 672 860 134 188

    Farnborough & Crofton 1926 1957 2179 31 222

    Hayes & Coney Hall 1453 1546 1868 93 322

    Kelsey & Eden Park 1536 1564 1795 28 231

    Mottingham & Chislehurst North 708 729 832 21 103

    Orpington 1779 1891 2138 112 247

    Penge & Cator 739 805 982 66 177

    Petts Wood & Knoll 1443 1636 1975 193 339

    Plaistow & Sundridge 1142 1156 1306 14 150

    Shortlands 1083 1163 1401 80 238

    West Wickham 1601 1663 1999 62 336

    Bromley 29185 30774 35620 1589 4846

    75+ persons

    Population projections Change in numbers

  • BROMLEY JOINT STRATEGIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT 2014