2000 to 2013 population and components of change estimates for maryland

Planning.Maryland.gov

2000 TO 2013 POPULATION AND COMPONENTS OF CHANGE ESTIMATES

FOR MARYLAND

Presented to the State Data CenterAffiliates Meeting

June 12, 2014

Mark GoldsteinMaryland Department of Planning


• States - December of estimated year

• Counties - March following estimated year

• Municipalities – May following estimated year

• Age, race and gender - June following estimated year (states and counties)

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU’S ANNUAL POPULATION ESTIMATES (TYPICAL TIMELINE RELEASE)


• Cohort component methodology for states and counties Births & deaths - from administrative records

Net domestic migration (tax returns and Medicare records)

Net international migration – ACS data

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU’S ANNUAL POPULATION ESTIMATES (METHODOLOGY)


POPULATION CHANGE FOR MARYLAND


ESTIMATED ANNUAL TOTAL POPULATION CHANGE FOR MARYLAND*

2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/20130

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

63,65765,698

55,880

50,666

45,444

34,988

26,041

31,557

45,423

56,805

53,048

44,627 43,946

* Population change is for July 1 of ending and beginning years.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau population estimates


ESTIMATED ANNUAL PERCENT POPULATION CHANGE FOR MARYLAND AND THE U.S.*

2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/20130.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.20% 1.22%

1.03%

0.92%

0.82%

0.63%

0.46%

0.56%

0.80%

0.99%

0.92%

0.76% 0.75%

* Population percent change is for July 1 of ending and beginning years.

MarylandU.S.



COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE


BIRTHS IN MARYLAND

7/1/2000- 7/1/2001- 7/1/2002- 7/1/2003- 7/1/2004- 7/1/2005- 7/1/2006- 7/1/2007- 7/1/2008- 7/1/2009- 7/1/2010- 7/1/2011- 7/1/2012-7/1/2001 7/1/2002 7/1/2003 7/1/2004 7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 7/1/2010 7/1/2011 7/1/2012 7/1/2013

70,000

71,000

72,000

73,000

74,000

75,000

76,000

77,000

78,000

79,000

73,809

73,116

73,806

75,196

74,925

76,062

78,56978569

77959

75853

73960

73548

72970

73240



DEATHS IN MARYLAND

7/1/2000- 7/1/2001- 7/1/2002- 7/1/2003- 7/1/2004- 7/1/2005- 7/1/2006- 7/1/2007- 7/1/2008- 7/1/2009- 7/1/2010- 7/1/2011- 7/1/2012-7/1/2001 7/1/2002 7/1/2003 7/1/2004 7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 7/1/2010 7/1/2011 7/1/2012 7/1/2013

40,000

41,000

42,000

43,000

44,000

45,000

46,000

47,000

43,641

44,04243,854

44,13343,955

42,967

44,352

43,906

42,375

44,139

43,473

45,393

46,205



NET NATURAL INCREASE FOR MARYLAND

7/1/2000- 7/1/2001- 7/1/2002- 7/1/2003- 7/1/2004- 7/1/2005- 7/1/2006- 7/1/2007- 7/1/2008- 7/1/2009- 7/1/2010- 7/1/2011- 7/1/2012-7/1/2001 7/1/2002 7/1/2003 7/1/2004 7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 7/1/2010 7/1/2011 7/1/2012 7/1/2013

26,000

27,000

28,000

29,000

30,000

31,000

32,000

33,000

34,000

35,000

30,168

29,074

29,952

31,063 30,970

33,095

34,217 34053

33478

2982130075

27577

27035



ESTIMATED NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION FOR MARYLAND *

2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

8,641

12,107

5,345

-10,142-13,066

-27,530

-33,169

-29,200

-12,404

1,932 1,073

-7,877 -8,525

* Migration estimates are for July 1 between beginning and ending years.



MIGRATION BETWEEN MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

-450 -126-1,218

-3,070-4,337

-6,889-8,849

-7,361-5,379

-2,148-851 -601

12,302 12,246 12,18011,285 11,199 11,108 11,644 11,645 11,517 11,485 10,970 11,011

-12,752-12,372-13,398

-14,355-15,536

-17,997

-20,493-19,006

-16,896

-13,633-11,821-11,612

Net for MD (In - Out) From PA to MD From MD to PA


MEDIAN VALUE OF OWNER-OCCUPIED HOMES

York Franklin Lancaster Adams Washington Baltimore Harford Carroll Frederick$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

Pennsylvania coun-ties

Maryland coun-ties

Year 2000


MEDIAN VALUE OF OWNER-OCCUPIED HOMES

York Franklin Lancaster Adams Washington Baltimore Harford Carroll Frederick$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000


Maryland coun-ties

Year 2008

Year 2000


CHANGE IN MEDIAN VALUE OF OWNER-OCCUPIED HOMES: 2000 TO 2008

York Franklin Lancaster Adams Washington Baltimore Harford Carroll Frederick

$75,400

$90,200

$73,200

$112,200

$142,600

$158,400$169,300

$191,500$203,100


Maryland coun-ties


CHANGE IN MEDIAN VALUE OF OWNER-OCCUPIED HOMES: 2008 TO 2011

York Franklin Lancaster Adams Washington Baltimore Harford Carroll Frederick

-$10,400-$12,800

-$7,300

-$26,500

-$49,600

-$29,200

-$37,300-$33,500

-$67,200


Maryland coun-ties


ESTIMATED NET INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION FOR MARYLAND *

2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/20130

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

21,48620,010

15,408

21,393 21,14122,574

19,328 18,849

16,608 17,133

22,680

25,386 24,944

* Migration estimates are for July 1 between beginning and ending years.



JURISDICTION DATA


POPULATION CHANGE, 2012-2013

Allegany Baltimore City

Kent Talbot

Queen Anne's Garrett

Caroline Worcester Somerset

Dorchester Cecil

Carroll Wicomico

Washington St. Mary's

Harford Calvert

Frederick Charles Howard

Baltimore Anne Arundel

Prince George's Montgomery

-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000-348-313

-168-109

-2539495367106229354375501

640675790

1,8892,154

5,2245,333

5,5688,662

12,201

Top 2 = 50%Top 4 = 72%Top 5 = 80%


POPULATION CHANGE: APRIL 1, 2010 – JULY 2013

Allegany Caroline

Kent Garrett

Somerset Dorchester

Talbot Worcester

Carroll Queen Anne's

Cecil Baltimore City

Calvert Washington

Wicomico Harford

St. Mary's Charles

Frederick Howard

Baltimore Anne Arundel

Prince George's Montgomery

-10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000-1,566

-373-253-208-197

42149169430719805989

1,7472,1582,163

4,3894,482

6,3138,024

17,49518,06618,087

26,66144,900

Top 2 = 46%Top 4 = 69%Top 5 = 81%



SHARE OF STATEWIDE ANNUALPOPULATION CHANGE *

7/1/2000- 7/1/2001- 7/1/2002- 7/1/2003- 7/1/2004- 7/1/2005- 7/1/2006- 7/1/2007- 7/1/2008- 7/1/2009- 7/1/2010- 7/1/2011 7/1/20127/1/2001 7/1/2002 7/1/2003 7/1/2004 7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 7/1/2010 7/1/2011 7/1/2012- 7/1/2013-

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Inner Suburban Counties + Baltimore City Outer Suburban Counties Western MD + Eastern Shore* Inner Suburban = Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Montgomery and Prince George's. Outer Suburban = Carroll, Harford, Howard, Frederick, Calvert, Charles and St. Mary's. Western Maryland = Allegany, Garrett and Washington. Eastern Shore = Caroline, Ce -cil, Kent, Queen Anne's, Talbot, Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico and Worcester.



NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION ESTIMATES *

7/1/2000-

7/1/2001-

7/1/2002-

7/1/2003-

7/1/2004-

7/1/2005-

7/1/2006-

7/1/2007-

7/1/2008-

7/1/2009-

7/1/2010-

7/1/2011-

7/1/2012-

7/1/2001 7/1/2002 7/1/2003 7/1/2004 7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 7/1/2010 7/1/2011 7/1/2012 7/1/2013

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

Inner Suburban Counties & Baltimore City Outer Suburban Counties Western MD + Eastern Shore* Inner suburban = Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Montgomery and Prince George's. Outer suburban = Carroll, Harford, Howard, Frederick, Calvert, Charles and St. Mary's. Western Maryland = Allegany, Garrett & Washington. Eastern Shore = Caroline, Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne's, Talbot, Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico and Worcester. Source: U.S. Census Bureau estimates. Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, March 2014



NET INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION ESTIMATES *

7/1/2000-

7/1/2001-

7/1/2002-

7/1/2003-

7/1/2004-

7/1/2005-

7/1/2006-

7/1/2007-

7/1/2008-

7/1/2009-

7/1/2010-

7/1/2012 7/1/2012

7/1/2001 7/1/2002 7/1/2003 7/1/2004 7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 7/1/2010 7/1/2011 7/1/2011-

7/1/2013-

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Inner Suburban Counties & Baltimore City Outer Suburban Counties Western MD + Eastern Shore* Inner suburban = Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Montgomery and Prince George's. Outer suburban = Carroll, Harford, Howard, Frederick, Calvert, Charles and St. Mary's. Western Maryland = Allegany, Garrett & Washington. Eastern Shore = Caroline, Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne's, Talbot, Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico and Worcester. Source: U.S. Census Bureau estimates. Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, March 2014



ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE AND NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY

7/1/2000- 7/1/2001- 7/1/2002- 7/1/2003- 7/1/2004- 7/1/2005- 7/1/2006- 7/1/2007- 7/1/2008- 7/1/2009- 7/1/2010- 7/1/2011- 7/1/2012-7/1/2001 7/1/2002 7/1/2003 7/1/2004 7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 7/1/2010 7/1/2011 7/1/2012 7/1/2013

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

-2,525

-5,069

-8,759

-11,774-10,673

-12,808-11,461

-5,191

1,1021,961

682

-2,842-4,040

Net Domestic Migration Population Change



ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE AND NET DOMESTIC & INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION FOR MONTGOMERY

COUNTY

7/1/2000- 7/1/2001- 7/1/2002- 7/1/2003- 7/1/2004- 7/1/2005- 7/1/2006- 7/1/2007- 7/1/2008- 7/1/2009- 7/1/2010- 7/1/2011- 7/1/2012-7/1/2001 7/1/2002 7/1/2003 7/1/2004 7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 7/1/2010 7/1/2011 7/1/2012 7/1/2013

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

-2,525

-5,069

-8,759

-11,774-10,673

-12,808-11,461

-5,191

1,1021,961

682

-2,842-4,040

10,246 10,1439,130 9,340

10,154 10,2659,267 8,854

7,967 7,911 8,026 8,668 8,735

Net Domestic Migration Net International Migration Population Change



ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE AND NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION FOR PRINCE GEORGE’S COUNTY

7/1/2000- 7/1/2001- 7/1/2002- 7/1/2003- 7/1/2004- 7/1/2005- 7/1/2006- 7/1/2007- 7/1/2008- 7/1/2009- 7/1/2010- 7/1/2011- 7/1/2012-7/1/2001 7/1/2002 7/1/2003 7/1/2004 7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 7/1/2010 7/1/2011 7/1/2012 7/1/2013

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

144

-2,304-4,179

-6,296-7,633

-16,577 -17,047

-14,612

-7,794

-3,717 -3,486-5,058

-3,290




ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE AND NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION FOR CARROLL CO.

7/1/2000- 7/1/2001- 7/1/2002- 7/1/2003- 7/1/2004- 7/1/2005- 7/1/2006- 7/1/2007- 7/1/2008- 7/1/2009- 7/1/2010- 7/1/2011- 7/1/2012-7/1/2001 7/1/2002 7/1/2003 7/1/2004 7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 7/1/2010 7/1/2011 7/1/2012 7/1/2013

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2,169

3,524

3,110

2,183

1,1541,102

43

-244 -240

122

-264 -375

8




ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE AND NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION FOR CECIL CO.

7/1/2000- 7/1/2001- 7/1/2002- 7/1/2003- 7/1/2004- 7/1/2005- 7/1/2006- 7/1/2007- 7/1/2008- 7/1/2009- 7/1/2010- 7/1/2011- 7/1/2012-7/1/2001 7/1/2002 7/1/2003 7/1/2004 7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 7/1/2010 7/1/2011 7/1/2012 7/1/2013

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1,398 1,401

1,902 1,876

1,5111,386

19868 122

-36

80

-294-121




ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE AND NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY

7/1/2000- 7/1/2001- 7/1/2002- 7/1/2003- 7/1/2004- 7/1/2005- 7/1/2006- 7/1/2007- 7/1/2008- 7/1/2009- 7/1/2010- 7/1/2011- 7/1/2012-7/1/2001 7/1/2002 7/1/2003 7/1/2004 7/1/2005 7/1/2006 7/1/2007 7/1/2008 7/1/2009 7/1/2010 7/1/2011 7/1/2012 7/1/2013

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

617

1,288

1,608

2,0212,141

1,412

1,081

-103

-441

114

556

-162-44




• Growth trends & migration patterns are still being affected by the Great Recession and its aftermath

• Growth is more concentrated in Central MD jurisdictions, less in exurban/rural counties

• Net domestic migration has greatest impact on year-to-year population changes

SUMMARY

2000 to 2013 population and components of change estimates for maryland

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