2004 crop production considerations todd vagts isu extension crop field specialist
TRANSCRIPT
2004 Crop Production Considerations
Todd VagtsISU Extension Crop Field Specialist
Todd Vagts
Talking Points
• Rotation changes?• Corn – Soybean Yield Comparisons
– Soybean Yield Plateau?
• Pest Considerations– Soybean– Corn
Todd Vagts
The Rotation Decision?
• Traditional Corn-Soybean• Corn-Corn-Soybean• Continuous Corn
• Problems and Considerations
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Why Corn-Bean Rotation
• Higher Yields (?)– Rotation Effect…
• Lower fertilizer costs (?)• Less pest problems (?)
– Weeds, insects, disease
• Less crop residue to manage• Farm program (?)
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Corn Yield - % of Corn-Soybean RotationIA Studies
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
23-Yr Data Set Last 4-YR Data Set
Co
rn G
rain
Yie
ld%
of
Co
rn-S
oyb
ean
Ro
tati
on
Corn-Soybean
Corn (1st Yr)
Corn (2nd Yr)
Continuos Corn
-10% -7%
(1998-01)
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Corn Yield - % of Corn-Soybean RotationIA Studies
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
23-Yr Data Set Last 4-YR Data Set
Co
rn G
rain
Yie
ld%
of
Co
rn-S
oyb
ean
Ro
tati
on
Corn-Soybean
Corn (1st Yr)
Corn (2nd Yr)
Continuos Corn
CS | C (1) | C (2) | CC CS | C (1) | C (2) | CC
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Corn Yield - % of Corn-Soybean RotationMN-WI Studies
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
Corn-Soybean
Corn (1st Yr) Corn (2nd Yr) ContinuosCorn
Co
rn G
rain
Yie
ld%
of
Co
rn-S
oyb
ean
Ro
tati
on
-9%
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Corn Yield - % of Corn-Soybean RotationMN-WI Studies
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
Corn-S
oybe
an
Corn (1
st Yr)
Corn (2
nd Y
r)
Continu
os C
orn
Co
rn G
rain
Yie
ld%
of
Co
rn-S
oyb
ean
Ro
tati
on
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2nd Year Corn
• Potential 7 to 10 percent yield reduction compared to 1st year corn
• Additional 2 to 4 percent yield reduction with 3 or more years of corn
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Soybean Yield - % of Soybean-Corn RotationIA Studies
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
23-YR Last 4-YR
% o
f S
oyb
ean
-Co
rn R
ota
tio
n
So
ybea
n Y
ield
Soy-Corn
Soy-Corn-Corn
Continuous Soy
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Rotation Yield Gains and Losses
• 2nd Year Corn– 8% Yield reduction X (149 bu/A) = 11.9
bu• 11.9 bu/A X $2.48 = $28.56 (Disadvantage)
• Soybean following 2nd Year Corn– 6% Yield Increase X (43.9 bu/A) = 2.6 bu
• 2.6 bu/A X $6.04 = $15.70 (Advantage)
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Costs to Corn-on-Corn2nd year corn and 3rd year soybean
Corn Yield Reduction Soybean Yield Gain
-$28.56 + $15.70
= -$12.86
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Nutrient Requirements
Nutrient Balance Summary
Rotation N (lb/yr) P2O5 (lb/yr) K2O (lb/yr)Corn/Soybean 63 53 66Corn/Corn/Soybean 91 58 59Corn/Corn/Corn/Soybean 119 56 58Continuous Corn 169 58 46
Nutrient Balance Summary
Rotation N P2O5 K2OCorn/Soybean 0% 0% 0%Corn/Corn/Soybean 145% 108% 89%Corn/Corn/Corn/Soybean 190% 106% 87%Continuous Corn 270% 108% 70%
% of Corn/Soybean
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Nutrient Costs
Nutrient Balance Cost Summary
Rotation Cost/Yr % IncreaseCorn/Soybean $28 0%Corn/Corn/Soybean $34 120%Corn/Corn/Corn/Soybean $39 139%Continuous Corn $48 171%
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Costs to Corn-on-Corn2nd year corn and 3rd year soybean
Corn Yield Reduction Soybean Yield Gain Fertilizer Cost
-$28.56 + $15.70 + -$12.00 (2 years)
= -$24.86 (2 year)
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Yield and Rotation
• Yield benefit to rotation most evident in lower yield environments (25%)– Yield benefit declines under high yield
environments for both corn and soybean (15% or less)
• Corn-Soybean rotation maximizes corn yield but not soybean yield
– The Corn Soybean Rotation Effect, Joe Laurer Paul Porter and Ed Oplinger. University of Wisconsin.
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Calhoun County Soybean and Corn Yields
Comparison
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5-Year Average Soybean Yield
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5 Year Average Yield
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Year: 2001
County Acres Yield State Rank County Acres Yield State RankScott 82,000 53.6 1 Scott 106,000 173.6 1Benton 169,000 50.6 2 Cedar 138,000 172.7 2Sioux 194,000 50.5 3 Delaware 160,000 169.3 3Sac 150,000 48.0 16 Webster 186,000 154.3 20Crawford 159,000 47.9 18 Sac 153,000 152.7 25Cherokee 141,000 47.9 19 Ida 112,000 146.2 40Ida 108,000 47.6 22 Buena Vista 159,000 144.4 47Buena Vista 158,000 46.5 26 Calhoun 165,000 144.2 48Carroll 145,000 46.3 28 Carroll 160,000 142.7 54Calhoun 167,000 43.7 46 Greene 156,000 140.7 57Webster 184,000 43.4 50 Crawford 174,000 137.6 65Pocahontas 168,000 42.5 59 Pocahontas 169,000 135.3 69Greene 154,000 42.1 64
STATE 44.0 STATE 146.0
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Year: 2002
County Acres Yield State Rank County Acres Yield State RankCherokee 133,000 58.0 1 Scott 107,000 186.9 1Clayton 47,400 54.9 2 Cedar 143,500 184.7 2Dubuque 36,700 54.5 3 Tama 157,000 184.7 3Sac 140,000 54.4 4 Webster 183,500 177.1 21Ida 103,400 52.9 12 Calhoun 162,500 171.7 34Buena Vista 145,900 52.1 16 Sac 156,000 169.9 46Carroll 137,900 52.1 17 Crawford 175,000 168.1 48Calhoun 151,900 51.2 20 Greene 155,500 167.2 49Crawford 154,700 50.5 25 Ida 111,000 167.0 50Webster 173,500 50.0 28 Carroll 153,500 164.6 55Pocahontas 155,800 48.9 42 Buena Vista 158,000 160.8 61Greene 145,900 48.5 45 Pocahontas 168,500 160.2 62
State 48.0 State 165.0
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Greater Advantage to Corn“High corn yields relative to soybean yields”
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Yield Trends 1971 - 02Corn and Soybean Yield
y = 1.7036x + 91.609
y = 0.4552x + 31.0950
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Bu
/Ac
re
Corn and Soybean Yield
y = 1.6628x + 96.186
y = 0.4602x + 31.5310
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Bu
/Ac
re
Iowa Calhoun County
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Yield Trend - 1997 - 02
Corn and Soybean Yield
y = 3.8x + 134.53
y = -0.0857x + 45.9670
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Bu
/Ac
re
Corn and Soybean Yield
y = 0.9171x + 139.77
y = 1.02x + 40.5130
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002B
u/A
cre
Iowa Calhoun County
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Corn and Soybean Yield
y = 3.8x + 134.53
y = -0.0857x + 45.9670
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Bu
/Ac
reCorn and Soybean Yield
y = 5.4857x + 101.13
y = 0.9571x + 36.5670
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
Bu
/Ac
re
Corn and Soybean Yield
y = 5.2286x + 95.533
y = 0.3857x + 36.233
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
Bu
/Ac
re
6-Year Yield Trends Iowa1997 – 021987 – 921977 - 82
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Corn and Soybean Yield
y = 0.9171x + 139.77
y = 1.02x + 40.5130
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Bu
/Ac
reCorn and Soybean Yield
y = -3.8629x + 143.05
y = -0.1886x + 42.1270
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
Bu
/Ac
re
Corn and Soybean Yield
y = 10.891x + 76.847
y = 0.7914x + 36.380
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
Bu
/Ac
re
6-Year Yield Trends Calhoun County1997 – 021987 – 921977 - 82
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Soybean Yield
y = 0.9714x + 38.767
y = -0.0857x + 45.967
y = -0.0714x + 39.333
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Bu
/Ac
re
198519911997
Corn Yield
y = 3.8x + 134.53y = 3x + 115.67y = -2.7714x + 129.53
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1 2 3 4 5 6
Bu
/Ac
re
198519911997
Yield Trends for Iowa6 Year Increments
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Soybean Yield
y = 2.4886x + 35.04
y = 1.02x + 40.513
y = 0.04x + 40.793
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Bu
/Ac
re
1985
1991
1997
Corn Yield
y = 0.9171x + 139.77y = 4.7629x + 117.68
y = 4.2429x + 113.03
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1 2 3 4 5 6B
u/A
cre
198519911997
Yield Trends for Calhoun County6 Year Increments
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Have Soybean Yields Reached a Plateau?
• For Calhoun County, when compared to similar time periods in the past – No
• Answer is more difficult to determine for the state
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Economics
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Shift Acres from Beans to Corn?2/09/04
• Dec. corn futures $2.83
Less basis, N. Iowa 0.35
Harvest hedge price 2.48
• Nov. soybean futures $6.49
Less basis, N. Iowa 0.45
Harvest hedge price 6.04
R. WisnerISU Econ.
Todd Vagts
• Corn/soy: Harvest hedge price $2.48Less variable prod’n costs @ 149 bu./A. (5-Yr Ave. Yield Calhoun County) 1.21Net/bu. 1.27Net/A. over variable cost $189.23
• Corn/corn: Harvest hedge price $2.48Less variable prod’n costs @ 136 bu./A. (91% of C/S) 1.60Net/bu. 0.88Net/A. $119.68Corn, Corn, SB rotation
Returns to Corn Production
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• Corn/soy: Harvest hedge price $6.04Less variable prod’n costs @ 50 bu./A. 2.17Net/bu. 3.87
Net/A. $193.50
• Corn/soy: Harvest hedge price $6.04Less variable prod’n costs @ 38 bu./A. 2.86Net/bu. 3.18Net/A. (excludes aphid spraying cost) $120.84
Shift Acres from Beans to Corn?
Disease, Nematode, aphid problems
2/09/04
Todd Vagts
Economic Summary
• Return to corn– C/S Rotation
• $189 ($1.27/bu)
– C/C/S• $120 ($0.88/bu)
• Return to soybean– Low Yield
• $121 ($3.18/bu)
– High Yield• $194 ($3.87/bu)
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Other Factor to Consider
• Greater percentage of farm in one crop – increases risk
• Corn requires greater input expenses
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Pest Management Considerations
• Corn– Western Bean Cutworm– Grape colaspis
• Soybean– Soybean Aphid– Bean Leaf Beetle– Cyst Nematode– Soybean Rust (?)
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• Eggs: Small, whitish, clusters that turn purple prior to hatch
• Larvae: New larvae ¼” long and dark brown, lighten to pale brown as they mature. Full size is 1½”
• Adults: White band along most of the leading edges of forewings
LAR
VA
AD
ULT
EG
GS
Corn Pests –western bean cutworm
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• Injury:Different from other
cutworms; ear feeders
Economic damage may occur when multiple cutworms feed on an ear
Injury allows pathogensinto the ear
Corn Pests –western bean cutworm
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Corn Pests – western bean cutworm
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Pyrethroids (RUP) Ambush®* Asana® XL* Capture® 2EC Baythroid® 2E Mustang® Max Pounce® 3.2EC* Warrior®
Organophosphates (RUP) Lorsban® 4E Penncap-M®
Carbamates
Sevin® XLR Plus
See “Integrated Crop Management” (http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/) or product labels for correct application rates.
Insecticides for western bean cutworm
*Mite risk
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• DescriptionHoney-brown leaf
beetle
Fine tan & brown lateral stripes on grooved wing covers
Larvae are small, “C”-shaped, grubs
Corn Pests – colaspis beetles
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Corn Pests – colaspis beetlesGrubs feed on roots
Above-ground symptoms may include stunting, wilting, purpling of the stem and leaves, and tip and leaf-edge browning
Damage extent unknown
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Soybean Aphid
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Where is it now?Spread of Soybean Aphid in the US,
2000-2003
• Spread to S & W continues
• Outbreaks in 2003 primarily in western half of NC states
• Treatment occurred in DE & MD in 2003
Slide from K. Ostlie, Data from R. Venette, unpublished data
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Soybean aphidDescription
– Very small, yellow aphid, 1/16 inch long
– Distinct black ‘tailpipe-like’ structures on end of
abdomen– Wingless and winged forms– Appear in colonies of adult
females and offspring– Females give birth to live
females
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(Buckthorn) (Soybean)
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How fast can a soybean aphid reproduce?
[data generated in the lab by Ragsdale et al., Univ. of Minnesota]
TempTemp68oF
77oF
86oF
95oF
LifeLifespan span (days)(days)
22
15
12
3 (die)
DoublingDoublingtime time (days)(days)
2
1.5
2
dead
TotalTotal# #
babiesbabies75
73
23
0
FirstFirstbabiesbabies
(# days)(# days) 7
5
5
--
Chris DiFonzo, Michigan State University
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10.8
45.4
2.8
7.6
33.7
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
Nodes
Pods/Plant
Seeds/Pod
Seed Wt.
Yield
% Reduction
Soybean Aphid Impacts on
Yield & Yield Components:
5 MN Fields in 2001
Slide from K. Ostlie, University of MN
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Sooty Mold
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Natural Enemy “Lag” TimeNatural Enemy “Lag” Time Spray Timing Critical – Aphid Resurgence Spray Timing Critical – Aphid Resurgence
FactorFactor
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
7/11 7/18 7/25 8/1 8/8 8/17 8/24 8/29 9/5
mea
n s
oybe
an a
phid
s pe
r pl
ant
0
20
40
60
80
100
nat
ura
l en
emie
s /
80
sw
eeps
soybean aphidHarmoniaOrius
LacewingNabis
Bob Ellingson and David Hogg, UW Entomology
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Product Performance & Canopy Distribution
Lorsban
Furadan
Pyrethroids
Volatile distribution through canopy.May “fume” into untreated check strips
Systemic, a.i. activity within plantin addition to contact activity
Cannot work its way through canopy beyond contact activity.
Coverage in closed canopy critical for efficacy against aphids at lower and inner locations on plant.
Eileen Cullen – UW Extension, Entomology
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Product Performance & Temperature
Lorsban
Furadan
Pyrethroids
Optimal performance at higher temps.(may increase “fuming” action)
Also relatively better at higher temp
Exhibits a Negative Temp Relationship:Works better under cool conditionsbelow 90oF.
Eileen Cullen – UW Extension, Entomology
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Product Performance & Residual
Lorsban
Furadan
Pyrethroids
Short residual, measured in days.
Longer residual than organophosphates.Some additional feeding exposure,due to systemic activity
Longest residual , 2 weeks or more
Eileen Cullen – UW Extension, Entomology
Todd Vagts
What to look for in 2004
• Look to areas of the northMN and Wisconsin
Areas with buckthorn and cooler temperatures
• Watch the weatherNorth Wind
Bring winged aphids in
Temperature Favorable environment for survival and
reproduction.
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Wind DirectionAverage Daily Wind Direction, 2003
0
90
180
270
360
Date
Win
d D
irec
tion
(D
aily
)
NW Wind
NE Wind
Average Daily Wind Direction, 2001
0
90
180
270
360
Date
Win
d D
irec
tion
(D
ay A
vera
ge)
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Average Temperature
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Date
Tem
per
atu
re
2003
2001
Temperature(Ames)
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IA Soybean Aphid Treatment Yield Response
Soybean Yield Response to Soybean Aphid Control(Outlier data points removed)
y = -0.4875x + 15.914
R2 = 0.4972
02468
1012141618
Treatment Day, August
Yie
ld A
dvan
tage
fro
m T
reat
men
t (b
u/A
)42 Data Points
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Threshold
- 250 aphids per plant250 aphids per plant
- assumes aphid numbers are on the increaseincrease
- provides a 7-day lead time (call in equipment, deal with weather delays)
- use through R4 (full-pod stage)
Cannot overemphasizeDROUGHT
Chris DiFonzo, Michigan State University
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82 Aphids
How Many Aphids?
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850 Aphids
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49 Aphids
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11 Aphids
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• Yellow or red; with or without four square marks on wing covers
• Always with a small, black triangle behind the head
• Soft and gray when adults first emerge
Bean leaf beetles
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• Key feature:
Small, black triangle behind head
Soybean Pests – bean leaf beetles
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Timing of Bean Leaf Beetle Generations
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
5/2
6
6/2
6/9
6/1
6
6/2
3
6/3
0
7/7
7/1
4
7/2
1
7/2
8
8/4
8/1
1
8/1
8
8/2
5
9/1 9/8
9/1
5
date
mea
n b
ean
leaf
bee
tles
Overwintering1st Generation
2nd Generation
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• Economic damage from pod feeding and by transmission of bean pod mottle virus
Soybean Pests – bean leaf beetles
L. Sweets
Pod Injury
Foliar symptoms
of virus
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Bean Leaf Beetle Population Trend
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
year
be
an le
af
be
etl
es /
50
s
we
eps
Highest abundance recorded in 14 years!
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Bean Leaf Beetle Management
Different strategies based on pest complex
A) Bean leaf beetle only
B) Bean leaf beetle + bean pod mottle virus
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Timing of Bean Leaf Beetle Generations
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
3505
/26
6/2
6/9
6/1
6
6/2
3
6/3
0
7/7
7/1
4
7/2
1
7/2
8
8/4
8/1
1
8/1
8
8/2
5
9/1 9/8
9/1
5
date
mea
n b
ean
leaf
bee
tles
Overwintering1st Generation
2nd Generation
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Insecticides for bean leaf beetle management
Pyrethroids (RUP) Ambush® 2EC* Asana® XL* Mustang Max®
Pounce® 3.2EC* Warrior®
Organophosphates Lorsban® 4E Penncap-M® (RUP)Carbamates Sevin® XLR Plus
See “Integrated Crop Management” (http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/), or product labels for correct application rates.
* Mite risk
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Soybean Cyst Nematode
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Soybean Rust
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Soybean Rust• Potential Yield Losses
– In countries in which soybean rust is an established problem, losses range from 10-80 percent. The severity of losses varies depending on susceptibility of the soybean variety, time of the growing season in which the rust becomes established in the field and weather conditions during the growing season.
• Management– Current management strategies are through the
use of resistant varieties and foliar fungicides applied during the growing season. Two to three fungicide applications may be necessary depending on disease severity.
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Soybean Rust• Hosts
– Soybean, kudzu, yellow sweet clover, medic, vetch, lupine, green and kidney bean, lime or butter bean and cowpea or black-eyed pea.
• Survival– Rust pathogens survive on living plant
material. It may be able to survive the winter months on hosts such as kudzu in the southern United States. Soybean rust spores could then be carried north on wind currents and by storms.
Todd Vagts
New Developments
• Section 18 approval for Gaucho (insecticide) on soybean seed– Bean leaf beetle– Soybean aphid