2005 01 fapm-racehorse - corn agronomycorn.agronomy.wisc.edu/extension/powerpoints/2005_01... ·...
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Betting The Farm On Racehorse Hybrids
Joe Lauer and Dale Hicks
University of Wisconsin and University of Minnesota
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu
Hybrid Stability
• What is it?
• Matching Hybrids to Conditions?
“Fix / Flex”Fix / Flex
“Offensive / Defensive”
“Racehorse / Workhorse”/
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu
Objectives
• Do racehorse hybrids exist?
• How risky are they?
• Should farmers buy them?
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu
Hybrid stability – Corn Breeders Definition
High
eld
Gra
in Y
ieH
ybrid
G
slope = 1 is a stable hybridshows a "minimum ofinteraction" with the environmentH environment(Eberhart and Russell)
Low Yields High YieldsLow
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu
Environmental Index
What is a racehorse hybrid?
HighR h
eld
Stableslope = 1
Racehorseslope > 1
Gra
in Y
ieH
ybrid
G
Workhorseslope < 1
H
Low Yields High YieldsLow
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu
Environmental Index
Ideally, we want above average hybrids … (Can we always operate above the line?)(Can we always operate above the line?)
High 1:1
eld
Gra
in Y
ie Ideal Workhorseslope < 1intercept > 0
Hyb
rid G
H
Ideal Racehorseslope > 1
Low Yields High YieldsLow
pintercept > 0
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu
Environmental Index
Data Sets For Stability Analysis
• Minnesota Corn Grower Hybrid Strip Tests2002 and 2003
1 to 6 locations per county
200 hybrids tested200 hybrids tested
Non-replicated at a location
Chose the high average and low yielding hybrids grown at 7 orChose the high, average, and low yielding hybrids grown at 7 or more locations
• Missouri 2003 Central TestsTop 10, average 10, and lowest 10 hybrids
5 locations
• Wide Area Tests (WI, IL, MI, NE, KS, IA, & PA)Highest 12 and Lowest 11 Hybrids
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu
30 to 380 Environments; 1997 - 2001
Materials and Methods
• Used SELECT data base which is comprised of University h b id t i l d tcorn hybrid trial data.
Total hybrids = 17,890
T t l li t 147 648Total replicate means = 147,648
Total plots = ~500,000 (442,944 to 590,592)
Ch h b id i 7 i• Chose hybrids grown in 7 or more environments Hybrids = 2563
Total replicate means = 51,397
Used 76% of original data set
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu
Data set matrix (1996-2003)All data derived from University trialsAll data derived from University trials
State First Year Last Year N
IA 1996 2001 21004
IL 1999 2001 5619
KS 1996 2001 4913
MI 1997 2001 5361MI 1997 2001 5361
MN 2001 2001 903
NE 1997 2001 5578
PA 1997 2001 3423
WI 1996 2003 15729
WY 1998 2001 88
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu
WY 1998 2001 88
220Yields of Hybrid Groups For A Range of Yield Levels
Minnesota Corn Growers County Plots 2002
200
220 Minnesota Corn Growers County Plots 2002
200
a) High Group b=.94, 182 bu/a180
d (b
u/a
A G b 74 174160
Yiel
d
Low Group b=.98, 166 bu/a
Avg Group b=.74, 174
140
p ,
120-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu
Deviation of Location Avg From All Locs Avg
Minnesota Corn Growers County Plots 2003205
Minnesota Corn Growers County Plots 2003
185High Group b= 94 184 bu/a
165
High Group b=.94, 184 bu/a
145Avg Group b=.93, 177 bu/a
125Low Group b=1.0, 171 bu/a
125
Environmental Index (Bu/A)-40 0 40
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu
275
Yields of Hybrid Groups For A Range of Yield LevelsCentral Missouri Corn Tests, 2003
250
275
225
High 10 Group b=0.99 179 bu/a
175
200
150
Avg Group b=1.0 163 bu/a
100
125
Low Group b=0.97 150 bu/a
75
70 45 30 15 0 15 30 45 70
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu
Deviation of Location Avg From All Locs Avg-70 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 70
Seven States Four Years 30 - 380 Locations240
210
A)
High Group b=0.99 174 Bu/A
180
ield
(Bu/
A
150
Yi
Low Group b=0.89 152 Bu/A
120
90-65 0 65
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu
Environmental Index (Bu/A)
Should a farmer grow a racehorse hybrid?
Predicted grain yield in EI
Hybrid class N % Slope Low Average High Range
Bu/EI Bu/A Bu/A Bu/A Bu/A
Racehorse 141 5.5 1.28 91 167 230 139
Id l R h 4 0 2 1 30 131 168 234 103Ideal Racehorse 4 0.2 1.30 131 168 234 103
Stable 2198 85.8 1.00 112 164 207 95
Workhorse 187 7.3 0.74 115 159 198 83
Ideal Workhorse 12 0.5 0.71 105 154 184 79
No relationship 21 0.8 --- 164 164 164 ---
T t l 2563 100
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu
Total 2563 100 --- --- --- --- ---
Conclusions
• Racehorse, Stable and Workhorse hybrids exist.Racehorse hybrids = 6% of hybrids tested
Stable hybrids = 86% of hybrids tested
W kh h b id 8% f h b id t t dWorkhorse hybrids = 8% of hybrids tested
• Racehorse hybrids are riskier than Stable or Workhorse hybridsWorkhorse hybrids.
Racehorse range = 138 bu/A
Stable range = 95 bu/AStable range = 95 bu/A
Workhorse range = 82 bu/A
In an “average” environment Racehorse and Stable hybrids are 8 g yand 5 bu/A better than Workhorse hybrids.
• “Ideal” racehorse and workhorse hybrids rarely i t
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu
exist.
Recommendations
• “A Good Yielding Hybrid is a Good Yielding Hybrid -Regardless of Environment Choose Good Ones ”Regardless of Environment. Choose Good Ones.
• Use multi-environment average dataBegin with trials in zone(s) nearest youBegin with trials in zone(s) nearest you
Compare hybrids with similar maturities
Use many years and locationsUse many years and locations
• Evaluate consistency of performanceCheck performance in other zones and locationsp
Check other reliable unbiased trials
Be wary of inconsistent performance.
You are taking a tremendous gamble if basing your hybrid
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu
selection decisions on 1 or 2 local test plots
The End of the Row – Questions? Thanks for your attention!Thanks for your attention!
Lauer © 1994-2005University of Wisconsin – Agronomyhttp://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu