2005 Residential Heating & Fuel Type Survey Results

ERCOT Load ProfilingPresentation to PWG

October 26, 2005

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Residential Heating & Fuel Type SurveyResidential Heating & Fuel Type Survey

Objective:

Develop a more accurate algorithm to predict presence and use of electric heat for residential customers and collect data to support analysis to potentially develop new profile types

Design: 41,000 bilingual survey forms (including pilot) mailed Stratified by Weather Zone and Profile Type

—2,563 RESHIWR per Weather Zone—2,562 RESLOWR per Weather Zone

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Residential Survey ResultsResidential Survey Results (including Pilot)(including Pilot)

Response 4,669 responses as of 09/30/2005 11.4% response rate

Phone Calls Generated 68 calls received (ERCOT provided ‘800’ number) Frequent Questions/Comments

— More info about survey— Wrong name to address matching— Electric account set up— Complaints regarding electric service

Budget $38,772 actual cost ($50,000 was the approved budget) included

— Market Researcher— Name to Address Service— ‘800’ number— Post Office services— Postage— Misc (ex., mileage)

Savings resulted largely from ERCOT obtaining & using a temporary PO Box & Business Reply Mail account

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The following slides represent responses received from the ERCOT 2005 Heating and Fuel Type Survey. Responses are unvalidated. Survey Questions

1. What classification (Dwelling type) best fits this address?

2. What is the primary type of home heating used at this residence?

3. If you replied “electricity” to question 2, is your heating system a heat pump?

4. What type of air conditioning is used at this residence?

5. Have you added central electric cooling or heating in the last 2 years?

6. What is the approximate square footage of living space in your residence?

7. What is the approximate age of your residence?

8. What fuel does the water heating system for this residence use?

Residential Heating & Fuel Type SurveyResidential Heating & Fuel Type Survey

5

Responses by WZone/Profile TypeResponses by WZone/Profile Type

8.5% 12.6% 10.5% 9.9% 13.6% 11.3% 10.6% 14.1%Responses / Mailed

by WZone

Num ber of Survey Responses by WZone & Profile Type

371LOWR275

LOWR

325LOWR

365LOWR303

LOWR

309LOWR

355LOWR262

LOWR

350HIWR

268HIWR

252HIWR

333HIWR

205HIWR

231HIWR

289HIWR

176HIWR

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST

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Q1 – Dwelling TypeQ1 – Dwelling Type

Percent of Dwelling Classification by Profile Type

77%

58%65%

57% 60%

71% 70%63% 66%

3%

4%

4%

3%

3% 5%

4%3%

17%

34%28%

36%33%

21% 24%

31% 27%

4% 3% 5% 4% 4%

2%

3%3% 3%1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST ERCOT

Multi Fam.HIWR

Single Fam.HIWR

Multi Fam.LOWR

Single Fam.LOWR

Single Family Multi Family Single Family Multi FamilyCOAST 76.8% 3.4% 16.9% 2.9%EAST 58.1% 4.0% 33.8% 4.1%FWEST 64.8% 4.0% 27.8% 3.4%NCENT 56.6% 2.1% 36.1% 5.2%NORTH 60.1% 3.5% 33.3% 3.1%SCENT 71.5% 3.0% 21.4% 4.2%SOUTH 69.9% 5.2% 24.0% 0.9%WEST 62.8% 3.8% 30.9% 2.6%ERCOT 66.0% 3.1% 27.2% 3.7%

RESLOWR RESHIWRDwelling Classification

ERCOT 2005 Residential Survey Results

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Q2 – Primary Home HeatQ2 – Primary Home Heat

Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Other/Not Sure

Overall - Percent of Home Heat Type(RESLOWR & RESHIWR)

36.0%

52.2%

36.5%

51.4%

41.6% 44.9%

69.6%

46.7% 46.9%

62.5%

47.5%

62.7%

47.7%

57.3%54.8%

29.2%

52.2% 52.0%

0.35% 0.80% 0.98% 1.02% 0.33% 1.19% 1.18% 1.14%1.45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST ERCOT

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Q2 – Primary Home HeatQ2 – Primary Home Heat

Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Other/Not Sure

RESLOWR Respondents - Percent of Home Heat Type

25%31%

21%26%

19%

31%

63%

30% 30%

74%68%

78%73%

80%

69%

35%

68% 69%

1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2%0.6% 0.3% 1.3%1.5%1.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST ERCOT

RESHIWR Respondents - Percent of Home Heat Type

81%87%

71%

88%81%

86% 89%79%

85%

29%20%

1.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 0.9%

14%11%13%18%11%13%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST ERCOT

By Profile TypeBy Profile Type

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Q3 – If Electricity, is it a Heat Pump?Q3 – If Electricity, is it a Heat Pump?

Electric Heat RespondentsPercent of Heat Pumps by Profile Type

10.2% 12.1%7.3% 6.8% 10.0%

17.9% 16.9%13.1% 10.0%

5.3%

21.3%

16.6% 17.3%

30.4% 16.7%

6.8%

24.6%

13.0%

84.5%

66.6%

76.0% 76.0%

59.5%65.4%

76.3%

62.3%

77.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST ERCOT

No/Not SureLOWR &HIWR

Heat PumpHIWR

Heat PumpLOWR

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Heat Pump/Age of ResidenceHeat Pump/Age of Residence

Heat Pump RespondentsPercent of Age of Residence

5.6%

27.4%

46.6%

20.4%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years

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Q4 – Air Conditioning TypeQ4 – Air Conditioning Type

Central Window/Wall Evaporative Other None Not SureCOAST 96.9% 6.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%EAST 86.2% 22.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3%FWEST 81.6% 19.1% 10.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0%NCENT 91.1% 13.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7%NORTH 78.1% 28.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%SCENT 93.2% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%SOUTH 76.7% 26.5% 0.4% 0.4% 2.9% 0.0%WEST 80.6% 22.6% 3.2% 0.3% 1.6% 0.0%ERCOT 90.9% 13.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%

Central Window/Wall Evaporative Other None Not SureCOAST 91.5% 10.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%EAST 89.6% 19.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0%FWEST 87.0% 16.9% 8.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0%NCENT 94.1% 11.7% 0.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0%NORTH 89.2% 17.4% 0.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%SCENT 90.9% 15.9% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4%SOUTH 83.2% 21.3% 0.0% 1.1% 1.5% 0.4%WEST 87.4% 16.6% 1.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0%ERCOT 91.8% 13.0% 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2%

RESHIWR

RESLOWR

ERCOT 2005 Residential Survey ResultsAir Conditioning Type

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Central Air Conditioning/Window WallCentral Air Conditioning/Window Wall

Window/Wall – No Central ACCentral AC – No Window/Wall Central AC & Window/Wall

Central AC / Window Wall AC

92.8%

79.1% 80.5%87.5%

75.1%

86.4%

74.2%78.9%

87.0%

3.8%

8.9% 9.5%

5.8%

7.8%

7.1%

5.9%

6.6%

5.4%

3.4%

12.0% 10.1% 6.7%

17.1%

6.4%

19.9%14.5%

7.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST ERCOT

13Evap. Cooler – No Central ACCentral AC – No Evap. Cooler Central AC & Evap. Cooler

Central Air Conditioning/EvaporativeCentral Air Conditioning/Evaporative

Central AC / Evaporative Coolers

99.6% 100.0%

89.3%

100.0%99.3%

100.0% 99.6%

96.8%

99.4%

0.1%

0.1%

0.8%

10.5%

0.6%

2.4%0.2%0.4%0.3%

0.1%0.4%

85%

87%

89%

91%

93%

95%

97%

99%

COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST ERCOT

14Evap. Cooler – No Window WallWindow Wall – No Evap. Cooler Window Wall & Evap. Cooler

Window Wall AC/EvaporativeWindow Wall AC/Evaporative

Window Wall AC / Evaporative

94.4%

100.0%

60.4%

100.0%97.7%

100.0% 98.9%

88.1%

95.9%

11.6%

5.6%

28.0%

1.8% 1.1%

10.7%

3.4%

0.7%0.4%

1.3%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

COAST EAST FWEST NCENT NORTH SCENT SOUTH WEST ERCOT

15

BOO!

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Q5 – Added Central Elec. Cooling/HeatingQ5 – Added Central Elec. Cooling/Heating

Cooling Heating Both No Not SureCOAST 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 96.2% 1.1%EAST 4.8% 2.0% 1.7% 93.2% 0.6%FWEST 5.8% 2.6% 1.9% 91.6% 0.6%NCENT 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 93.4% 1.7%NORTH 4.4% 1.6% 1.6% 93.2% 0.3%SCENT 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 94.2% 1.8%SOUTH 8.0% 3.6% 3.3% 88.4% 1.5%WEST 5.1% 2.2% 1.6% 91.6% 0.8%ERCOT 3.3% 1.0% 0.9% 93.9% 1.3%

Cooling Heating Both No Not SureCOAST 3.4% 2.3% 1.7% 93.8% 1.7%EAST 2.4% 1.7% 1.4% 94.8% 1.4%FWEST 6.1% 2.2% 1.7% 90.5% 2.2%NCENT 6.3% 2.9% 2.9% 90.2% 2.4%NORTH 4.2% 3.0% 2.4% 94.9% 0.6%SCENT 4.4% 2.8% 2.8% 92.5% 2.4%SOUTH 6.3% 5.2% 4.5% 91.0% 1.1%WEST 5.4% 2.9% 2.6% 92.3% 1.1%ERCOT 5.4% 2.9% 2.6% 91.6% 2.0%

ERCOT 2005 Residential Survey ResultsAdded Central Electric Cooling or Heating (last 2 years)

RESLOWR

RESHIWR

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Q6 – Sq. Footage of Living SpaceQ6 – Sq. Footage of Living Space

Less 1,000 2,001 Greater Notthan 1,000 to 2,000 to 3,000 than 3,000 Sure

COAST 4.7% 39.5% 36.4% 15.9% 3.5%EAST 7.0% 49.3% 25.4% 7.3% 11.0%FWEST 10.4% 43.8% 25.0% 10.7% 10.1%NCENT 7.0% 42.7% 30.8% 15.2% 4.3%NORTH 12.1% 53.4% 17.9% 3.6% 12.9%SCENT 5.9% 51.2% 27.5% 10.2% 5.2%SOUTH 14.7% 52.0% 18.7% 2.2% 12.5%WEST 13.6% 53.1% 20.6% 4.6% 8.1%ERCOT 7.3% 43.4% 30.7% 13.0% 5.6%

Less 1,000 2,001 Greater Notthan 1,000 to 2,000 to 3,000 than 3,000 Sure

COAST 16.6% 54.9% 17.7% 5.7% 5.1%EAST 14.2% 50.3% 21.5% 7.6% 6.3%FWEST 11.7% 47.8% 27.4% 6.1% 7.0%NCENT 10.8% 62.6% 19.7% 3.4% 3.4%NORTH 12.3% 54.4% 23.4% 3.9% 6.0%SCENT 18.8% 48.0% 22.0% 4.8% 6.4%SOUTH 15.7% 54.4% 17.6% 4.6% 7.7%WEST 13.2% 53.2% 19.3% 6.0% 8.3%ERCOT 13.0% 58.4% 19.5% 4.4% 4.7%

Approximate Square Footage of Living Space

RESLOWR

RESHIWR

ERCOT 2005 Residential Survey Results

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Q7 – Age of ResidenceQ7 – Age of Residence

Less than More Not5 years 5 to 15 16 to 30 than 30 Sure

COAST 7.3% 22.9% 35.9% 34.0% 0.0%EAST 2.5% 13.5% 30.1% 50.1% 3.4%FWEST 2.9% 10.4% 22.7% 60.5% 3.6%NCENT 5.6% 22.4% 28.4% 42.2% 1.3%NORTH 1.1% 7.9% 24.4% 63.0% 3.6%SCENT 6.5% 42.2% 30.5% 19.1% 1.8%SOUTH 3.6% 21.1% 29.1% 43.6% 2.5%WEST 1.9% 10.8% 29.9% 53.1% 4.0%ERCOT 5.7% 21.6% 31.4% 40.1% 1.2%

Less than More Not5 years 5 to 15 16 to 30 than 30 Sure

COAST 5.1% 13.1% 46.6% 29.5% 5.7%EAST 4.2% 24.9% 37.7% 27.0% 6.2%FWEST 1.3% 8.2% 39.0% 45.9% 5.6%NCENT 5.9% 19.5% 44.4% 25.4% 4.9%NORTH 2.1% 15.0% 45.0% 35.1% 2.7%SCENT 6.0% 29.0% 38.9% 21.4% 4.4%SOUTH 4.9% 25.7% 31.3% 36.6% 1.5%WEST 1.7% 17.1% 38.9% 39.7% 2.6%ERCOT 5.2% 18.4% 43.1% 28.6% 4.7%

ERCOT 2005 Residential Survey ResultsApproximate Age of the Residence

RESHIWR

RESLOWR

19Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Other/Not Sure

Primary Heat/Age of ResidencePrimary Heat/Age of Residence

ERCOT Age of Residence / Primary Heat

50.1% 52.4% 55.8%

33.2%

49.4% 45.8%43.8%

65.5%

0.5% 1.3%0.4%1.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years

20Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Other/Not Sure

Primary Heat/Age of ResidencePrimary Heat/Age of Residence

NCENTAge of Residence / Primary Heat

55.8% 57.9%65.0%

31.5%

44.2% 41.1%34.4%

67.4%

0.9% 0.6% 1.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years

COAST Age of Residence / Primary Heat

36.8% 34.1%40.5%

30.8%

63.2%62.4%

59.5%

67.4%

3.5% 1.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years

EAST Age of Residence / Primary Heat

61.1%

72.5%

60.9%

33.8%

38.9%

27.5%

38.6%

65.8%

0.5% 0.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years

FWESTAge of Residence / Primary Heat

48.2%41.6%

52.5%

25.5%

51.8%58.4%

47.5%

73.7%

0.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years

21Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Other/Not Sure

Primary Heat/Age of ResidencePrimary Heat/Age of Residence

WESTAge of Residence / Primary Heat

80.4%

67.1%

54.2%

34.5%

19.6%

31.5%

44.2%

64.9%

1.4% 1.7% 0.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years

SOUTHAge of Residence / Primary Heat

83.8% 87.1%80.3%

51.0%

9.3%12.9%

48.1%

6.9% 0.9% 0.9%

18.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years

SCENTAge of Residence / Primary Heat

65.8%

39.4%

53.9%

30.3%

34.2%

60.0%

45.8%

69.7%

0.6% 0.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years

NORTHAge of Residence / Primary Heat

76.2% 74.1%

57.2%

24.6%

23.8% 25.9%

41.7%

74.2%

1.1% 1.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Less than 5 years 5 to 15 years 16 to 30 years More than 30years

22

Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Solar Other/Not SureCOAST 23.5% 72.8% 0.0% 3.4%EAST 42.8% 55.0% 0.0% 2.2%FWEST 30.9% 67.1% 0.0% 2.0%NCENT 41.1% 55.9% 0.0% 3.0%NORTH 38.6% 60.7% 0.0% 0.7%SCENT 35.2% 61.1% 0.4% 3.0%SOUTH 56.1% 41.6% 0.0% 1.8%WEST 40.8% 57.7% 0.0% 1.2%ERCOT 36.0% 61.0% 0.0% 2.8%

Water Heating System Fuel Type

Overall - RESLOWR & RESHIWR

ERCOT 2005 Residential Survey Results

Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Solar Other/Not Sure Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Solar Other/Not SureCOAST 12.6% 84.4% 0.0% 2.7% COAST 67.6% 26.1% 0.0% 6.3%EAST 22.3% 75.5% 0.0% 2.3% EAST 76.5% 21.5% 0.0% 2.1%FWEST 16.5% 81.2% 0.0% 2.3% FWEST 62.8% 35.9% 0.0% 1.3%NCENT 14.5% 82.8% 0.0% 2.6% NCENT 79.0% 17.6% 0.0% 3.4%NORTH 16.2% 83.0% 0.0% 0.8% NORTH 77.8% 21.6% 0.0% 0.6%SCENT 22.2% 74.5% 0.3% 2.8% SCENT 73.4% 22.2% 0.8% 3.6%SOUTH 52.0% 45.5% 0.0% 2.2% SOUTH 68.7% 29.9% 0.0% 0.7%WEST 25.1% 73.6% 0.0% 0.8% WEST 72.0% 26.0% 0.0% 2.0%ERCOT 18.7% 78.6% 0.0% 2.5% ERCOT 74.6% 21.7% 0.0% 3.6%

RESLOWR RESHIWR

Q8 – Water Heating System Fuel TypeQ8 – Water Heating System Fuel Type

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Primary Heat/Water Heating System FuelPrimary Heat/Water Heating System Fuel

Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Solar Other/Not SureElectricity 70.1% 25.3% 0.0% 4.5%Natural/Bottled Gas 5.7% 93.8% 0.0% 0.5%Other/not sure 11.5% 34.7% 0.0% 53.8%

Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Solar Other/Not SureElectricity 49.3% 45.2% 0.0% 5.4%Natural/Bottled Gas 5.6% 93.8% 0.0% 0.5%Other/not sure 14.6% 25.6% 0.0% 59.8%

Electricity Natural/Bottled Gas Solar Other/Not SureElectricity 86.3% 9.8% 0.0% 3.9%Natural/Bottled Gas 6.9% 92.9% 0.0% 0.2%Other/not sure 3.2% 65.8% 0.0% 31.0%

ERCOT 2005 Residential Survey Results

Home Heat

Home Heat

Home Heat

Water Heating System Fuel

Water Heating System FuelOverall - RESLOWR & RESHIWR

RESLOWR

RESHIWRWater Heating System Fuel

Primary Heat to Water Heating System Fuel

24

Questions?