2006* farnborough airshow apresentação aviação comercial

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  • 1. AIRLINE MARKET OUTLOOK Frederico Fleury Curado Executive Vice-President, Airline Market Farnborough 2006 Investors Meeting July 19th, 2006

2. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAERS WRITTEN CONSENT. This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our market. The words believes, may, will, estimates, continues, anticipates, intends, expects and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements. Forward Looking Statement 3. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAERS WRITTEN CONSENT. Q Airline Market Scenario and Trends Q Important Issues in the 30-120 Seat Segment: RJ 50: an intrinsic part of the air transportation system E-Jets: matching aircraft capacity to market demand Q Market Forecast Contents 4. Airline Market Scenario and Trends 5. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAERS WRITTEN CONSENT. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% China Asia Pacific Middle East Africa Russia & CIS Europe Latin America USA, Canada & Caribbean World RPK GDP Source: Global Insight and Embraer Positive World Economic Scenario 2006-2025 economic scenario is sustaining Air Travel Demand growth Projected Traffic and Economic Growth by Region (Average Annual Growth) 6. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAERS WRITTEN CONSENT. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 1995 1996 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006F 2007F Billion(RPK&ASK) 62% 64% 66% 68% 70% 72% 74% 76% 78% 80% %(LoadFactor) RPK ASK Load Factor Increased Air Travel Demand Traffic is recovering at strong growth rates but in another environment Source: ICAO - Contracting States - Scheduled Airlines 6.3% yoy 7.7% yoy 6.4% yoy 7. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAERS WRITTEN CONSENT. Revenue Environment World yields are improving, but trend in real terms remains low Source: ICAO (Contracting States - Scheduled Airlines), Global Insight (USA CPI Inflation) and IATA Economics World real yields in 2005 are 28% lower than 1994 values in an environment where LCCs pricing power is the main driver. 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005F 2006F 2007F Index(1994=100) World Nominal Yield World Real Yield (adj. for US inflation) 8. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAERS WRITTEN CONSENT. Financial Net Results Some improvement to profitability, projecting a healthier 2007 Source: IATA (Jun/06) Europe 2005 2006F 2007F 1.6 1.3 1.4 Values in US$ Billion 2005 2006F 2007F -0.4 -0.9 -0.6 Africa 2005 2006F 2007F -0.1 0.1 0.2 Latin America 2005 2006F 2007F 0.2 0.1 0.3 Middle East 2005 2006F 2007F 2.1 1.7 2.0 Asia Pacific 2005 2006F 2007F -3.2 -3.0 3.3 World 2005 2006F 2007F -6.7 -5.2 0.0 North America 9. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAERS WRITTEN CONSENT. End of Cheap Jet Fuel Lack of spare oil production capacity remains high price trend Source: EIA - Energy Industry Administration (Jun/06) 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 Jan05 Mar05 May05 Jul05 Sep05 Nov05 Jan06 Mar06 May06 Price(US$/Barrel) Crude Oil Jet Fuel 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 MillionsofBarrelperDay Capacity Demand Current jet fuel price 48% higher than Jan/05 For coming years oil barrel is expected to stay at US$60-70 level and jet fuel at US$1.70-1.90/gallon 10. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAERS WRITTEN CONSENT. Higher Competitive Environment LCC will keep capturing market share from Network carriers Source: Back Aviation and Embraer 76% 60% 19% 29% 11% 57% 31% 5% 12% 2000 2005 2010E Network LCC Regional USA Domestic RPM Intra Europe RPK 72% 65% 11% 19% 17% 16% 50% 34% 16% 2000 2005 2010E 11. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAERS WRITTEN CONSENT. LCC & Network Cost Convergence Operating Result (MM) Net Result (MM) Operating Margin (%) Net Margin (%) Operating Result (MM) Net Result (MM) Operating Margin (%) Net Margin (%) American $52 -$106 1,0% -2,0% -$44 -$171 -0,9% -3,6% Continental $11 -$66 0,4% -2,2% -$173 -$186 -6,9% -7,4% Delta -$485 -$2.069 -13,0% -55,6% -$957 -$1.071 -25,8% -28,9% Northwest -$15 -$1.104 -0,5% -38,2% -$301 -$529 -10,8% -18,9% United * -$168 $22.411 -3,8% - -$239 -$1.012 -6,1% -25,8% US Airways $125 $65 4,7% 2,5% $45 -$174 6,1% -23,7% ExpressJet $37 $24 9,2% 5,9% $39 $23 10,3% 6,2% Skywest $83 $35 11,2% 4,6% $34 $19 10,1% 5,5% Pinnacle $22 $13 10,4% 6,4% $20 $23 10,3% 12,0% Republic $48 $17 18,6% 6,6% $37 $15 17,4% 7,1% Southwest $98 $61 4,9% 3,0% $81 $59 4,9% 3,5% JetBlue -$25 -$32 -5,1% -6,5% $25 $6 6,7% 1,6% Alaska Group -$125 -$79 -17,0% -10,8% $27 -$81 4,2% -12,5% AirTran -$4 -$5 -1,1% -1,1% -$9 -$8 -3,2% -2,7% 1Q 20051Q 2006NetworkLCCRegional Airlines Source: Airlines (Total System: Domestic and International) * United: Net Result includes reorganization items (the discharge of claims and liabilities primarily relates to those unsecured claims arising during the bankruptcy process. United recognized a non-cashreorganization gain of $24.4 billion in the 1Q06). 12. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER AND SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT EMBRAERS WRITTEN CONSENT. 6,018 routes with less than two average daily frequency USA & Europe Average Daily Frequency by Route Routes operated exclusively by Jet Aircraft from 91 175 seats up to 2000 nm 34% 41% 17% 6% 2% 0 - 0,5 0,5 -

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