CALAFCO 2007 Annual ConferenceCALAFCO 2007 Annual Conference

SUSTAINABILITYSUSTAINABILITYLAFCO’s Role in Meeting the ChallengeLAFCO’s Role in Meeting the Challenge

Wednesday, August 29, 2007Wednesday, August 29, 2007Hyatt Regency, SacramentoHyatt Regency, Sacramento

2007 California Water 2007 California Water DevelopmentsDevelopments

““Our Challenged Water Our Challenged Water Resources – A Serious Look Resources – A Serious Look

at Sustainability”at Sustainability”

Workshop Overview – Part IWorkshop Overview – Part I• Landmark decisions –

affecting water resources• Implications to Southern

California, Bay-Delta, source areas (Sierra Nevada)

• Potential Challenges and Strategies

• Climate change

Workshop Overview – Part IIWorkshop Overview – Part II• CKH guidance• Water determinations• Metrics used• Compatibility with

State/federal laws• Flexibility and Liability• Adaptive Management

Re-Cap of California HydrologyRe-Cap of California Hydrology• Two-thirds of

precipitation in the Sierra and north

• Two-thirds of demand in south

• Majority precipitation in November-March

• Majority of demand in March-November

Re-Cap of Re-Cap of CaliforniaCalifornia Hydrology Hydrology

• Allocation and timing challenge

• Convergence of Sacramento – San Joaquin rivers

• Delta sensitivity

Delta Delta SensitivitySensitivity

• Maintain Delta ecosystem health

• Delta smelt• Salmon/steelhead

migration• Water quality

objectives• Water deliveries

2007 Federal/State Events2007 Federal/State Events

• State Pumps shut down for 9 days in June• Federal Pumps shut down this summer• CVP-OCAP challenged

– USFWS Biological Opinion for Delta Smelt– NOAA Biological Opinion for Salmon/Steelhead

• DMC Intertie/SDIP challenged • Governor’s Delta Vision Committee (E.O. S-17-

6)

2007 Federal/State Events (cont.)2007 Federal/State Events (cont.)

• Bay-Delta Conservation Program/Plan• Revisit – Peripheral Canal• DWR – Drought Preparedness Workshops• California Water Plan Update 2009• CVRWQCB – understaffed by one-third

Other DevelopmentsOther Developments• Westlands Water District – 1 MAF entitlement

transfer

• Quantification Settlement Agreement (QSA) - Imperial Irrigation District/Coachella Valley Water District – Colorado River

• Ninth Circuit Court – Columbia River – take “recovery” into account on jeopardy determinations under the federal ESA

Legislative DevelopmentsLegislative Developments

• AB 32 – Global Warming Solutions Act

• SB 59 - Reliable Water Supply Bond Act– Sites and Temperance Flat reservoirs

• AB 224 – Climate Change and Water Resource Protection Act– DWR to include climate change in all reports required

under the Water Code

Legislative Developments (cont.)Legislative Developments (cont.)

• SB 27 – Sacramento/San Joaquin River Delta, Clean Drinking Water, Water Supply Security and Environmental Improvement Act of 2008

• SB 732 – Prop 84 Bonds – fund projects related to water quality, flood control, waterway protection and climate change

• AB 1066 – Ocean Council – sea level rise information to OPR

• AB 1404 – joint water diversion and use reporting database

Current ConditionsCurrent Conditions

• “Critically Dry-Year” in the San Joaquin R. watershed• “Dry-Year” in the Sacramento R. watershed• Reservoir inflows low• Reservoir storages low – potential for low carryover• Depleted reservoir coldwater pools• Potential hydropower bypasses• Emergency purchases/transfers• Moratoriums on new services

Mid-August 2007 StatusMid-August 2007 StatusSTORAGE IN MAJOR RESERVOIRS IN THOUSAND OF ACRE-FEET

Reservoir Capacity 15 Yr Ave. WY 2006 WY 2007 % of 15-Yr Ave.

Trinity 2,448 1,905 2,057 1,813 85Shasta 4,552 3,139 3,536 2,282 73Oroville 3,538 2,498 3,122 1,974 79Folsom 977 617 769 420 68New Melones

2,420 1,605 2,201 1,524 95

Fed. San Luis

966 265 440 82 31

Millerton 520 298 389 204 68Total CVP 11,360 7,530 9,003 5,921 79

Mid-August 2007 StatusMid-August 2007 StatusACCUMULATED INFLOW FOR WATER YEAR TO DATE IN THOUSANDS OF ACRE-

FEET

Reservoir Current WY 2007

DriestWY 1977

WettestWY 1983

15-Yr Ave. % of 15-YrAve.

Trinity 715 201 2,833 1,525 47

Shasta 3,673 2,301 10,376 6,227 59

Folsom 1,381 319 6,314 2,948 47

New Melones

535 0 2,668 1,173 46

Millerton 798 302 4,393 1,863 43

2007 Reservoir Projections2007 Reservoir ProjectionsProjected Reservoir Storage through September 2007 in Thousands of Acre-Feet

(Based on U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 90% EWA Water Operations Forecast)

Reservoir Capacity Sept Oct Nov Dec End of Year % of

FullTrinity 2,448 1,386 1,314 1,260 1,252 51

Shasta 4,552 1,908 1,896 1,866 1,999 43

Folsom 977 261 229 202 192 20

New Melones

2,420 1,409 1,410 1,422 1,434 59

San Luis 966 48 158 354 566 58

Ecosystem Trends – Delta SmeltEcosystem Trends – Delta Smelt

Ecosystem Trends – Delta Smelt, Ecosystem Trends – Delta Smelt, Longfin Smelt, and Striped BassLongfin Smelt, and Striped Bass

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The Bay InstituteBay-Delt Plan Periodic Review Issue: Delta OutflowJanuary 12, 2005

Ecosystem Trends – Winter-Run Ecosystem Trends – Winter-Run Chinook SalmonChinook Salmon

Ecosystem Trends – X2 Ecosystem Trends – X2 Upstream MigrationUpstream Migration

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Compared to pre-dam conditions (1930-1943)Compared to estimated unimpaired flow condition

The Bay InstituteBay-Delt Plan Periodic Review Issue: Delta OutflowJanuary 12, 2005

Where are we today?Where are we today?• Pelagic Organism

Decline (POD)• Unauthorized “take” at

the State pumps• CVP-OCAP uncertainty• Coldwater pool decline• Reduced deliveries to

southern California• Uncertain future

hydrology

Climate Change EffectsClimate Change Effects

Climate Change EffectsClimate Change Effects

Climate Change Effects - CaliforniaClimate Change Effects - California

What we are unsure of:

• Magnitude of change

• Temporal variability

• Spatial variability

Water Resource ImplicationsWater Resource Implications• Source area hydrology will likely change

(snowpack, rainfall, runoff, ET, GW recharge)• Water availability – total, spatial, seasonal• Increased water transfers/wheeling• New supplies• Supply capture balanced with flood control• Delta – will remain an important conveyance and

ecosystem component • Demands will continue to grow

What does this mean for LAFCo?What does this mean for LAFCo?

• Should acknowledge that: Should acknowledge that: – Water Supplies being Firmed Up– New Supplies being Explored– Difference between “paper” and “wet”

water– Transfers occurring between Agencies– Delivery Constraints– North-South “equation”

LAFCo MandatesLAFCo Mandates• LAFCo required to review timely availability LAFCo required to review timely availability

of adequate water supplies for any of adequate water supplies for any organization changeorganization change– Gov’t Code §56668k Water Code §65352.5Gov’t Code §56668k Water Code §65352.5

• LAFCo reviews extension of services outside LAFCo reviews extension of services outside of boundariesof boundaries– Gov’t Code §56133 (in vs. out of sphere) Gov’t Code §56133 (in vs. out of sphere)

– LAFCo reviews services to previously unserved LAFCo reviews services to previously unserved territory within unincorporated areasterritory within unincorporated areas

– Gov’t Code §56434Gov’t Code §56434

Water Supply AvailabilityWater Supply Availability• Surface Water• Groundwater• Recycled Water• Demand Reduction• Desalination

How real is the water supply?How real is the water supply?• “Safe Yield”

– Entitlement restrictions (contract, water right, third party agreement)

– Has it been “perfected”? Long-term or temporary– Shortage provisions– Constrained by storage capability– Constrained by reservoir operational rules– Shared beneficial uses (hydropower, recreation, etc.)– Seasonal use restrictions– Would it offset or delay other customers already

within the service area?

ExampleExample• Federal Water

“Shortage Policy”– 100,000 AFA M&I

Contract– Ave. Historical Use –

50,000 AFA– Maximum current

cutback – to 37,500 AFA (Dry Year)

– Maximum ultimate cutback – to 75,000 AFA

ExampleExample• Water Rights –

Terms and Conditions– Minimum bypass

flow requirement– Water right – 100 cfs– Fish bypass flows –

25 cfs (May-June)– Fish bypass flows –

35 cfs (May-June) in Dry Years

ExampleExample• Water Rights -

Recreational Flows– Water right of 500 cfs– Recreational flows –

no diversions upstream of Point (May-September)

– Requirement for increased releases during specific periods

ExampleExample• Water Rights – Need for

Implementation Approval

– 50,000 AFA water right

– Federal facilities required to take water

– Have yet to secure a federal Warren Act contract (wheeling agreement)

ExampleExample• Third Party

Agreements– e.g., Sacramento

Water Forum– 62,000 AFA total

entitlement– 54,900 AFA wet-year

diversion – 39,000 AFA voluntary

cutback in dry-years

ExampleExample• New Infrastructure

Improvement– Folsom Dam and

Reservoir – Joint Federal Project– FDS/FDR– New Flood

Encroachment Curve– Effects on long-term

carryover for Folsom water supply

ExampleExample• Changing Rules for

CVP/SWP and Delta Operations– Long-term prescriptions?– Exports– In-Delta standards– COA – Term 91 (balanced

conditions)– Accommodations for

flood control– Climate change effects

Can the supply be accessed?Can the supply be accessed?

• Is it in a readily accessible reservoir?• Are diversion/conveyance improvements

necessary?• Does adequate treatment capacity exist?• What is the status of the purveyor’s

distribution infrastructure?• Are there water quality concerns?

Other Issues?Other Issues?• Cross-county

coordination?• “First-come/First

Served” edict still appropriate?

• Prior rights?• By approving a certain

annexation; are we acceding to a water supply alternative with greater environmental effects?

What form of assurance is What form of assurance is appropriate?appropriate?

• Verbal commitment• “Will serve” letter• Development Agreement• Others?

Options for Water Supply and Options for Water Supply and Infrastructure VerificationInfrastructure Verification

• Accept as is…• Request explanation

and discussion• Defer to published

information• Perform internal

assessment• Seek third party

review

Are determinations perpetual?Are determinations perpetual?

• Are LAFCo determinations unchangeable?• What happens if:

– Water supply availability was over-estimated?– Water delivery proves unreliable?– Changes in federal/State regulations?– Current project shown to adversely affect

historic customers (e.g., WQ, reduced reliability)?

– Financing for required CIPs are delayed?

Can LAFCos Condition Can LAFCos Condition Approvals?Approvals?

• Could a LAFCo:– Require periodic monitoring and reporting?– Review established milestones – to re-verify facts?– Include Re-Opener clauses in agreements?– Amend certain Terms and Conditions of

Determinations?– Seek mitigative remedies?– Thereby: adopt Adaptive Management principles in

the discharge of duties under CKH?

Liability ConcernsLiability Concerns

• Who bears the burden of liability if:– Water supply information inadvertently

omitted important data?– New information proves a previous LAFCo

determination inaccurate?– It is shown that an approved delivery (through

annexation) could trigger adverse effects under federal law (e.g., Endangered Species Act)

Liability Concerns (cont.)Liability Concerns (cont.)– It is shown that an approved delivery (through

annexation) could trigger adverse effects to other existing residents?

– Project timing is delayed because certain approvals have not been secured by the water purveyor?

– Conveyance failure occurs?– Development project has to de-mobilize?

Open DiscussionsOpen Discussions

Follow-Up Actions?Follow-Up Actions?• Findings?• Recommendations?• CALAFCO?

THANK YOU!THANK YOU!

2007 California Water Developments

“Our Challenged Water Resources – A Serious Look at Sustainability”

Robert ShibataniConsulting Hydrologist and Water Industry Advisor

PBS&JRSShibatani@pbsj.com