2008 commercial gso demand forecast may 2008 chris kunstadter gwynne shotwell comstac technology...

2008 Commercial GSO Demand

Forecast

May 2008Chris KunstadterGwynne Shotwell

COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working [email protected]

[email protected]

Cover art by John Sloan/FAA

2008 Summary

Methodology / Realization Factor

Trends – Mass / Transponders

Operator Assessment

Macro Economics

Summary

2COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group2008 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast 5/16/2008

2008 GSO Summary

2008-2017 commercial GSO satellite and launch demand forecast increased by 1 from 2007

Average 21.8

Average 16.2


Report History

• Commercial GSO launch demand forecast Updated annually since 1993 Methodology has been consistent over time, with ongoing

enhancements to reflect industry evolution

• Update this year - smallest mass class was < 2,200 kg, now < 2,500 kg

10-year forecast horizon (2008-2017)

• 2008 report updates Realization factor Growth in satellite mass and transponders per satellite Industry developments that may affect demand Respondents’ views on factors affecting demand


Working Group Participation

Gwynne Shotwell SpaceX(2008 GSO Forecast Chair)

Beth King Lockheed Martin(2007 GSO Forecast Chair)

Dr. Alexander Liang Aerospace Corp.(T&IWG Chair)

John Sloan FAA AST

Darren Chambo Lockheed Martin

Lisa Hague Aerospace Corp.

Doug Howe / Josef Lore Boeing

Veronica Johnson / Greg Caudel ULA

David Keslow Orbital

Chris Kunstadter XL Insurance

Joanna Malvino / Bill Hayes /Kathy Shockey / Tom Monroe SS/L

Jennifer Miceli Tecolote Research / USAF / SMC / MV

Chris O’Connell Sea Launch

Chris Sanders P&W Rocketdyne


Forecast Data Request

• Ten-year GSO satellite launch demand requested from 92 organizations worldwide

• 29 inputs received (versus 22 last year) Comprehensive

• 6 US and 3 international satellite manufacturers / launch service providers (same as 2007)

Individual

• 20 demand inputs from satellite operators (increased from 13 last year)

• Questionnaire on factors affecting market demand 18 satellite operators responded to questions on how

various factors affected their plans to procure new satellites

• Up from 12 respondents in 2007


Forecast Methodology

• Near-term (2008-2010) mission model “Bottoms-up” by identified satellite Timing and likelihood of launches assessed

• Long-term (2011-2017) demand forecast Average of comprehensive domestic forecasts by mass

categories International input used as a cross check

• Only “addressable” commercial GSO satellites Defined as those open for internationally competitive launch

service procurement 2008 addressable launches includes the first Long March

launch (Palapa D) defined as addressable since 1997


Satellite and Launch Demand Forecast

Large increase in near-term demand from the 2007 forecast


Historical Forecast Comparison

2008 near-term forecast higher than 4 of 5 most recent forecasts


• The GSO forecast projects demand for satellite launches

• Several factors can affect the execution of a scheduled launch in a given year

Satellite issues Launch vehicle issues Manifesting & scheduling issues Funding Weather Regulatory delays

• A “realization factor” is based on an analysis of historical forecast vs. actual satellite launches for the first and second year of the forecast

No change in this methodology from last year 2007 actuals fell within realization range

Satellite Launch “Realization” vs. Demand


2007 Actual Satellites vs. Forecasted Demand

Reason for delay Planned Actual

23 18

Launch vehicle (3)• Thor 5, AMC 14 and Thuraya 3

Satellite / launch vehicle (1)• ICO-GEO 1

Satellite (1)• Star One C2

78% actual vs. forecast

Realization factor predicted 15-19 launches


Forecast With Realization

Since implementation of the realization factor, actual number of satellites launched has fallen within adjusted band


Forecast By Satellite Mass Class

Forecast indicates stability in satellites to be launched in two highest mass classes

Smallest satellite class increases in the near term, then decreases and stabilizes


Total and Average Satellite Mass Launched

Average satellite mass stabilizing at ~4,200 kg after peak of 4,500 kg in 2005


Spacecraft Trends: Transponders

Slight drop in average transponders launched per yearAn increase is expected in 2009


Satellite Operator Assessment

Significant Negative Impact

Some Negative Impact

No Effect

Some Positive Impact

Significant Positive Impact

Compared to 2007

Regional or global economic conditions 0% 33% 39% 28% 0%

Demand for satellite services 6% 11% 28% 33% 22%

Ability to compete with terrestrial services 6% 22% 61% 11% 0%

Availability of financing 11% 17% 44% 22% 6%

Availability of affordable insurance 0% 17% 56% 28% 0%

Consolidation of service providers 0% 6% 94% 0% 0%

Increasing satellite life times 0% 17% 72% 11% 0%

Availability of satellite systems that meet your requirements 0% 6% 44% 39% 11%

Reliability of satellite systems 0% 17% 44% 39% 0%

Availability of launch vehicles that meet your requirements 0% 11% 50% 33% 6%

Reliability of launch systems 0% 22% 39% 39% 0%

Ability to obtain required export licenses 6% 17% 56% 22% 0%

Ability to obtain required operating licenses 6% 22% 61% 11% 0%


Satellite Operator Assessment

• Only two areas are more negative than in last year’s survey Ability to compete with terrestrial services Ability to get required licensing

• Remaining are more positive than last year Economic conditions had less negative impact (watch item for next year) Demand for services Availability of financing Availability of affordable insurance (watch item for next year) Availability / reliability of launch vehicles Consolidation of service providers Increasing satellite lifetimes Availability of satellite systems to meet requirements Reliability of satellite systems Availability & reliability of launchers Ability to obtain required export licensing


Summary of Findings

• 2008 GSO demand forecast 2008-2017 average annual satellite demand of 21.8 per year (increase by 1

from 2007 forecast) 2008-2017 average annual launch demand of 16.2 per year (increase by 1

from 2007 forecast) 2008 satellite demand of 27, with a realization between 17 and 22

• More positive outlook from respondents than in 2007 Ability to compete with terrestrial services and licensing are the only areas

more negative than last year

• Growth in demand in coming years could be helped by DARS & MSS growth Hosted payloads New commercial launch competitors

• Economic conditions and recent launch failures may impact results in 2008-2009

2008 commercial gso demand forecast may 2008 chris kunstadter gwynne shotwell comstac technology...

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