2008* embraer day apresentação aviação comercial
TRANSCRIPT
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Embraer Day 2008 - November 07th, 2008Embraer Day 2008 - November 07th, 2008
Airline Market & Embraer Programs OverviewAirline Market & Embraer Programs Overview
Mauro KernExecutive Vice President
Airline Market
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our market.
The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,” “intends,”“expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements.
Forward Looking Statement
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Contents
� Air Transport Industry Review
� RJ50 & the ERJ145 Family
� 70 to 120-seat Market & the E-Jets
� Competitive Scenario
� New Embraer Market Outlook 2009-2028
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Financial crisis?
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Short-term Economic Scenario - USA
Source: Wall Street Journal (Oct/08)
• Recession / Slowdown in the USA economy is a REAL FACT
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2006-Q
1
2006-Q
2
2006-Q
3
2006-Q
4
2007-Q
1
2007-Q
2
2007-Q
3
2007-Q
4
2008-Q
1
2008-Q
2
2008-Q
3
2008-Q
4
2009-Q
1
2009-Q
2
Real USA GDP (Quarter over Quarter % Growth)
Recession
Probability
in the USA:
89%
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Short-term Economic Scenario - World
Source: Global Insight (Oct/08)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2007-Q
1
2007-Q
2
2007-Q
3
2007-Q
4
2008-Q
1
2008-Q
2
2008-Q
3
2008-Q
4
2009-Q
1
2009-Q
2
2009-Q
3
2009-Q
4
2010-Q
1
2010-Q
2
2010-Q
3
2010-Q
4
Emerging Markets
Developing Coutries
World
USA
Europe
Real GDP Growth by Quarter (% change from year earlier)
• USA recession / slowdown putting pressure on world economies
• Emerging and developing countries supporting world economy growth
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Source: Global Insight (Oct/08)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
European Union USA Emerging Markets Developing Countries World
1999-2008 2009-2018 2009-2028
Long-term Economic Scenario - World
• Emerging and developing markets sustaining long-term economic scenario
Average Annual Real GDP Growth (%)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
World Real GDP Share (Measured in Yr2000 US$ PPP)
• And leading the future GDP share
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1998 2008 2018 2028 2038
Other AdvancedEconomies
USA
European Union
DevelopingCountries
Emerging Markets
Source: Global Insight (Oct/08)
Long-term Economic Scenario - World
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Backlog Evolution
Source: Embraer Emerging Countries include Brazil, Russia, India, China and Eastern Europe.
• North America & Europe share decreased
from 91% in 2005 to 51% in Sep/2008
71%
28%
20%
23%
8%
20%
1%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 Sep/2008
% o
f T
ota
l E-J
ets
Ba
ck
log
Emerging Countries
RoW
Europe
North America
322 Acft 409 Acft
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Air Transport Industry Cycles
Source: IATA
Air Travel Demand
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
jan
/06
mar/
06
mai/06
jul/06
set/
06
no
v/0
6
jan
/07
mar/
07
mai/07
jul/07
set/
07
no
v/0
7
jan
/08
mar/
08
mai/08
jul/08
sep
/08
World RPK Growth (%)
• Air travel demand is decreasing in the last months, outpacing capacity cuts
RegionJul-
Sep/08Sep/08
Africa -4.5 -7.8
Asia Pacific -3.5 -6.8
Europe 0.8 -0.5
Latin America 7.2 1.7
Middle East 2.3 -2.8
North America 2.8 -0.9
World 0.1 -2.9
Regional RPK Growth (%)
5.9% per year 7.4% per year 3.6% per year
(% change from year earlier)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Air Transport Industry Cycles
Source: ICAO and Embraer
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
F
RPK GDP
• Despite world economic crisis, air travel demand remains growing
2n
d O
il C
risis
Iraq
War
Sep
, 11th
1s
t O
il C
risis
World Economy vs. Air Transport Growth
World Real GDP & RPK (Index 1970=100)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Crude Oil & Fuel Price Evolution
Source: EIA - Energy Information Agency
PeriodCrude Oil (US$/bar)
Jet Fuel (US$/gal)
2000 30.38 0.91
2001 25.98 0.74
2002 26.18 0.71
2003 31.08 0.87
2004 41.51 1.20
2005 56.64 1.72
2006 66.05 1.95
2007 72.34 2.17
Jan-Sep/08 113.31 3.39
Oct/08 82.56 2.59
28/Oct/08 62.80 2.13
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
135
150
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.0
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Cru
de O
il (U
S$/b
arr
el)
Jet F
uel (U
S$ /G
allo
n)
Jet Fuel Crude Oil
Oct-
08
• Short-mid term: losses due to hedge contracts, but benefit from lower prices.
• Mid-long term: oil price projections ranging from 80-130 USD/barrel.
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
-6.7
1.61.2
0.2
-0.1-0.4
-4.1
-2.6
1.8
0.80.2
-0.2 -0.4 -0.5
2.8
2.1
0.90.3
-0.1-0.4
5.6
-5.0
0.3 0.3 0.2
-0.3-0.7
-5.2
-4.0
0.0 0.1 0.2
-0.2 -0.3
-4.1
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
North America Europe Asia-Pacific Middle East Latin America Africa Global
2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009F
Industry net profits
Significant losses continue into 2009.
Source: IATA Economics Sep/08 (ICAO data to 2007 and IATA Forecast 2008-2009)
Values in US$ Billion
Global and US net results includes restructuring costs and excludes United Airlines ‘fresh-start’ accounting losses and gains
IATA Fuel Price Assumption: 2008=$122/b and 2009=110/b
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
US Airlines – Foreseeable better results ahead
11.712.6
13.5 13.213.5
10.9
RASM (¢) CASM (¢) RASM (¢) CASM (¢) RASM (¢) CASM (¢)
Source: Airlines (American, Continental, Delta, NWA, United, US Airways, Southwest, JetBlue, Airtran, Alaska); * Excluding Goodwill Impairment;
Others
Pax Revenue
Others
Fuel
Others
Pax Revenue
Others
Others
Fuel
2007 (9M) 2008 (9M) 2009F (9M)
Op. Margin
6.6%6.6%
$5.1 Bi$5.1 Bi
Op. Margin
--7.4%7.4%
($6.2 Bi)($6.2 Bi)
Oil Price (Barrel)
$66Oil Price (Barrel)
$113Oil Price (Barrel)
$90
Fuel
Pax Revenue
Others
Op. Margin
2.3%2.3%
$1.8 Bi$1.8 Bi
� Average Oil Prices on 9M2009: US$ 90/barrel
� ASM reduction: -10%
� RPM reduction: -8%
� Yield increase (fare): 5%
� Other Revenues per ASM growth: 10%
� Other Expenses growth: 8%
Assumptions - Jan-Sep/2009
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
US Airlines – Foreseeable better results ahead
Source: Airlines (American, Continental, Delta, NWA, United, US Airways, Southwest, JetBlue, Airtran, Alaska); * Excluding Goodwill Impairment;
� Bloomberg 10/27: “Analysts say the 10 biggest U.S. airlines are poised for a turnaround beginning this quarter. The combination of cheaper fuel and deep capacity cuts
should allow the carriers to profit no matter what happens with the broader economy. Michael Derchin,
FTN Midwest Research Securities, projects $5 billion in profits for the top 10 US airlines next
year.”
�Morgan Stanley 10/28: “We believe that falling fuel prices and nearly unprecedented
domestic capacity cuts have laid the foundation for a movement toward mid-cycle
margins in ’09.”
� Scott Kirby, US Airways Pres: “It would take a truly unprecedented decline in demand to overcome the impact of oil… if we exclude the impact of hedging, to
produce the same results in 2009 as we produced in 2008, revenue would need to decline by 22%... with the exception of 9/11, nothing like that has happened in the history of the airline industry”
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
What can we expect?
• Continuous world air transport demand growth despite current
economic slowdown ���� ~ 3% in 2008 and 2009
• More consolidation, merges and less start-ups
• Additional capacity cuts, fare increases and demand slowdown
• Additional quest for efficiency: cost cuts, higher LFs and higher
aircraft utilization
• Early retirement of older jets
• Better match of aircraft capacity to a lower demand
• Limited aircraft financing in 2009
RJ50 Market
&
ERJ 145 Family
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
ERJ 145 Family Order Book
(September, 30th 2008)
DeliveriesFirm
Backlog
ERJ 135 108 0
ERJ 140 74 0
ERJ 145 693 40
Total 875 40
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Source: Back (Dec/07)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 >30
Age (Years)
Nu
mb
er
of
Air
cra
ft
2,050 Jets (average age: 9 years)
RegionNumber
of Aircraft
%Average
Age (years)
North America 1,422 70% 7
Latin America 49 2% 7
Europe 268 13% 8
Russia & CIS 185 9% 32
Africa & MEast 27 1% 15
Asia Pacific 24 1% 9
China 75 4% 6
World 2,050 9
Fleet Age Profile (30-60 seats)
• Young fleet not requiring replacement in the short-medium term,
(except Russia/CIS fleet)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Source: BACK Aviation (Operator Category: Scheduled Airline, Non Scheduled, Leasing and Financial Institution; Status: In Storage and Temporarily Inactive)
44
38
28
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 26/Oct/08
Nu
mb
er
of
Air
cra
ft
Jet Aircraft (Western Built)
Parked Aircraft (30-60 seats)
• Parked RJ50 fleet increasing due to high fuel prices in the last months.
• Reduced fuel prices bringing some relief to RJ50 short-haul operations.
FairchildDO328
Bombardier
CRJs 100/200/440
Embraer36 ERJ-135
8 ERJ-145
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
RJ50 – Importance to the Air Transport System
• Feeding system is vital for Airline´s Success
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
20062003
Source: CAAC
RJ50 Evolution on Non-Traditional Markets
China´́́́s RJ aviation is growing at slower pace but has huge potential
196 Markets - 45 A/C 223 Markets - 61 A/C
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
USA
Europe
China
30-120 Seats
120-210 Seatsunbalanced jet fleet
11%
33%
42%
% of Fleet
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
RJ50 Market Opportunities – CIS
Yakovlev Yak-40 30-seat jet
Aircraft in service
Scheduled Airlines: 175Non-Scheduled Airlines: 110
285 Yak-40s (average age: 33 years)
Tupolev Tu-134 70-seat jet
Aircraft in service
Scheduled Airlines: 134Non-Scheduled Airlines: 37
171 Tu-134s (average age: 30 years)
Source: BACK (Jun/08)
• 456 aircraft requiring replacement
• Replacement already started: Dniproavia’s ERJ145
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
New Pre-Owned ERJs Operators
• More than 120 used ERJs transactions since 2000
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
ERJ-145 Residual Value @ 12years
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
10,00
2002
Q4
2003
Q1
2003
Q2
2003
Q3
2003
Q4
2004
Q1
2004
Q2
2004
Q3
2004
Q4
2005
Q1
2005
Q2
2005
Q3
2005
Q4
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
US
$ M
illi
on
s
ERJ-145
CRJ-200
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
RJ50 Market Trends
• RJ50 feeder is fundamental to support US hub and spoke system
• Potential US removal of around 300 RJ50s in five years in a
US$125/oil barrel scenario, tending to decrease due to current
lower fuel price
• US Regionals trend towards high capacity aircraft (75 seater) due to
scope clause relaxation
• China needs RJ50s to achieve a better fleet capacity balance
• Secondary markets will keep expanding – used RJ50s moving to
CIS, Mexico, Africa and South America
70 to 120-seat
Jet Market
&
the E-Jets
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Family Order Book
Firm Orders
Options DeliveriesFirm
Backlog
EMBRAER 170 187 100 143 44
EMBRAER 175 134 173 100 34
EMBRAER 190 434 460 181 253
EMBRAER 195 110 80 22 88
Total 865 813 446 419(September, 30th 2008)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Worldwide Distribution
• Growing and diversified customer-base across five continents.
• Increased presence in emerging markets with established carriers.
Customers Firm Orders
Source: Embraer (Sep/08)
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Source: Embraer
Deliveries
1 2 3 4 9 14 19 29 45 53Customers/Operators
E-Jets Customer Base Evolution
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Family - Efficiency to all Business Models
Source: Embraer (Sep/08 ; Sirte Oil, GECAS and Jetscape not presented)
Regional Network Low Cost
Charter
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
26% of 61-120 fleet
(666 acft) with more
than 20 years
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 >35
Age (Years)
Nu
mb
er
of
Air
cra
ft
Source: BACK (Dec/07)
World Fleet Age Profile (61-120 seats): 2,582 jets / 14 years average age
Region # Acft.Avg. Age
North America 884 8
Latin America 305 22
Europe 655 11
Russia & CIS 272 24
Africa 143 22
Middle East 79 13
Asia Pacific 215 19
China 29 9
World 2,582 14
• Nearly 700 aircraft (26% of fleet) need replacement in the coming years
• Retirement cycle may be antecipated due to fuel costs and environment
Market Opportunities - Replacement
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
500 nm Sector, Full Pax, Network Environment (3,200 annual BH), Jet Fuel Price $3.00/gallon
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Additional Fuel Burn (%) vs. E190
Ad
dit
ion
al A
nn
ua
l C
os
t (U
S$
-
tho
us
an
ds
) V
s. E
19
0
E195
717
F100
737-500
737-300
DC-9-30
MD-87
Fuel & Maintenance Cost Savings vs. Older Jets
E190/195 can offer up to US$ 2.7 million yearly fuel savings and up to
US$ 1.2 million maintenance cost savings
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
27%42%
26%
8%
7%
6%
51%
42%
53%
14% 8% 15%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
North America Europe World
% o
f T
ota
l E
-Je
ts M
ark
ets
Natural Growth Direct Replacement Right-sizing New Markets
E-Jets Deployment
Source: Back (4Q07), Embraer
• 53% of E-Jets operations: right-sizing of narrowbody services
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Source: Back (4Q07), Embraer
E-Jets Deployment - North America
Sep/08 Deliveries Backlog
15 E175
45 E190
36 E190 69 E190
30 E175 6 E175
24 E190 18 E190
76 E170
43 E175
11 E175
E-Jets 269 104
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Right-sized NB Markets - North America
Source: OAG (Oct/08)
Markets operated by A320, 737 and MD families in 2003 that are currently operated by E-Jets.
NUMBER OF E-JETS MARKETS: 363
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Deployment - Europe/CIS
Sep/08 Deliveries Backlog
1 E190
6 E170
10 E195
2 E170
10 E170 8 E190
5 E190
3 E190 5 E190
13 E195 1 E195
10 E190
10 E1706 E175
12 E175
18 E19012 E195
1 E195 2 E195
5 E190
1 E1706 E190
8 E170 5 E190
1 E195 5 E195
E-Jets 67 99 Source: Back (4Q07), Embraer
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Right-sized NB Markets - Europe
Source: OAG (Oct/08)
Markets operated by A320, 737 and MD families in 2003 that are currently operated by E-Jets.
NUMBER OF E-JETS MARKETS: 148
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Deployment - Middle East & Africa
Sep/08 Deliveries Backlog
15 E170
5 E195
2 E175
6 E170 6 E170
3 E170
2 E170
1 E1907 E170
2 E190
2 E190
2 E195 10 E190
1 E170
E-Jets 35 27Source: Back (4Q07), Embraer
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Sep/08 Deliveries Backlog
6 E190 44 E190
5 E170
10 E190
1 E170
8 E190
10 E170
6 E1901 E1901 E195
2 E170
3 E175
2 E170
1 E170
1 E1901 E190
1 E170
7 E170
1 E190 4 E190
E-Jets 36 79
E-Jets Deployment - Asia Pacific & China
Source: Back (4Q07), Embraer
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E-Jets Deployment - Latin America
Sep/08 Deliveries Backlog
4 E190 12 E190
8 E190 4 E190
1 E175
1 E190
5 E190
31 E195
20 E195
13 E190 2 E190
2 E170
2 E190 9 E190
2 E170
3 E190
5 E175
E-Jets 36 88Source: Back (4Q07), Embraer
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
E170/190
2006 2007 2008 2009
New Higher Thrust
Engine Version
CF34-10E7
HUD Repeater
+
LVTO 170 �
�
E-Jets Continuous Product Evolution
EFB
CAT III B 170
CAT III A Autoland190
CAT III HGS 195
CAT III A Autoland 175
CAT III HGS 190
Steep Approach 170
�
�“… (E-190 flightcrew) will be able to fly every approach the same way, in good weather and in bad, from the left seat or the right seat, to ILS-equipped runways or on non-precision approaches”Usto Schutz, JetBlue’s VP (E190 Program)
“… (E-190 flightcrew) will be able to fly every approach the same way, in good weather and in bad, from the left seat or the right seat, to ILS-equipped runways or on non-precision approaches”Usto Schutz, JetBlue’s VP (E190 Program)
�
�
�
ETOPS 190 (75’)�
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
2006 2007 2008 2009
• Steep Approach 190
• RNP < 0.1 / RAAS / ADSB
• CPDLC / Dual HF
• Slim Seats
E175 AR
…creating value to customers.
E-Jets Continuous Product Evolution…
ETOPS 190 (120’’)�
IFE Live TV E195
• 14000 ft TO/LAND
• 15 kts Tailwind E190
CAT IIIA Autoland 195
E170 AR
VHF Mode 2
�
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets SR & CR
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E170/175 Residual Value @ 12 years
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
10,00
11,00
12,00
13,00
2002
Q4
2003
Q1
2003
Q2
2003
Q3
2003
Q4
2004
Q1
2004
Q2
2004
Q3
2004
Q4
2005
Q1
2005
Q2
2005
Q3
2005
Q4
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
US
$ M
illi
on
s
Embraer 170
Embraer 175
CRJ-700
CRJ-900
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E190/195 Residual Value @ 12 years
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
9,00
10,00
11,00
12,00
13,00
14,00
15,00
16,00
2002
Q4
2003
Q1
2003
Q2
2003
Q3
2003
Q4
2004
Q1
2004
Q2
2004
Q3
2004
Q4
2005
Q1
2005
Q2
2005
Q3
2005
Q4
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
US
$ M
illi
on
s
Embraer 190
Embraer 195
B737-600
A318
Competitive
Scenario
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Market Share - World (61-120 seats)
40
24
38
232122
17
4646464444
25
32
2
32
3639
38
4442
33 34
57
911
100 100 99
60
28
17 16 16
4 4
1216
21
2930
36
98
45
6
25
2 2 10
20
40
60
80
100
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Sep-
08
(%)
Considering accumulated firm orders.
Embraer: 170/175/190/195 Sukhoi: Superjet 100
Bombardier: CRJ700/900/1000 AVIC I: ARJ-21
Airbus: A318 Antonov: An-148
Boeing: B737-600 Mitsubishi: MRJ90
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Backlog Evolution Comparison
Source: Embraer, Bombardier, ACAS
E-Jets have a strong competitive position
Source: Embraer, Bombardier, ACAS
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Competition: AVIC ARJ21-700 vs E175
Program Status:
• Current first flight planned for Nov/2008 (initially planned for Q4/2005)
• Current EIS announced for middle 2010 (initially planned for Q4/2006)
Competitive Positioning: ARJ21/700 vs E175
• Conventional concept
• Heavier design
• Higher fuel burn
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Competition: Sukhöi SSJ 100 vs E190
Program Status:
• First flight happened on May/08 (initially planned for middle 2005)
• Engine has not been certified yet
• Current EIS announced for Q3/2009 (initially planned for 2006)
Competitive Positioning: SSJ 100 vs E190
• Conventional concept, with higher risks.
• SSJ75: not competitive against E175 (SSJ100 shrink)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Competition: Mitsubishi MRJ 90 vs E175
Program Status:
• EIS announced for 2013
• Program is still in the early design phase
Competitive Positioning: MRJ 90 vs E175
• 3,500 kg heavier than E175
• Similar capacity of the E175 (92 seats @ 29” versus 86 seats @ 31”)
• Aft baggage compartment may cause CG balance problems as well as increases
baggage handling cost
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Competition: CSeries C110 vs E195
Program Status:
• First flight planned for 2012
• EIS announced for 2013
• Program launched without firm orders in place
Competitive Positioning: C110 vs E195
• 5,500 kg heavier than E195
• Higher drag due to cross section and wider engine nacelle
• Just 2% COC better than E195
• E195 offers positive NPV benefits for airlines and a mature product
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Projected Economic and Traffic Growth
Source: Global Insight and Embraer (Oct/08)
North America
AfricaLatin America
Middle East
World
Europe Russia / CIS
China
2.5% 3.5%
4.2% 6.0%
2.0% 4.2% 4.4% 6.1%
7.2% 7.7%
5.0% 5.5%
3.9% 6.2%
2.8% 5.2%
3.1% 4.9%
Asia Pacific
Growth by Region (2009-2028)
Projected world GDP growth around 3% in the next twenty years
sustaining nearly 5% annual increase in air transport demand
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Market Segment (Seats) 2009 – 2018 2019 - 2028 2009 - 2028
30 - 60 75 575 650
61 - 90 1,150 1,300 2,450
91 - 120 1,725 1,925 3,650
30 - 120 2,950 3,800 6,750
Embraer Market Forecast (2009-2028)
Main Driver
30-60 Mature market, low RJ50 demand in the short/mid term
61-90 75-seater as a natural growth for RJ50s
91-120Right-sizing of narrowbody operations, replacement of old & inefficient jets and airline expansion into mid-density markets
Projected Deliveries - Jets
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Embraer Market Forecast (2009-2028)
North
America
2,57038%
Latin
America
5408%
Europe
1,35020%
Russia / CIS
4557%
Africa
2303%
Middle East
2103% Asia
Pacific
5208%
China
87513%
6,750 new jets will be delivered in the 30 to 120-seat segment
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Embraer Market Forecast (2009-2028)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Jet 30-60 Jet 61-90 Jet 91-
120
Number of New Aircraft Deliveries - World
30,750
Aircraft
2019-2028
2009-2018
650 2,450 3,650
6,750
Source: Embraer
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Embraer Market Forecast (2009-2028)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
TP 30-60 TP 61-90 TP >90 Jet 30-60 Jet 61-90 Jet 91-
120
Number of New Aircraft Deliveries - World
30,750
Aircraft
2019-2028
2009-2018
650 1,400 1,000
3,050
650 2,450 3,650
6,750
Source: Embraer
T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d h e r e i n i s p r o p e r t y o f E m b r a e r a n d s h a l l n o t b e c o p i e d o r u s e d w i t h o u t E m b r a e r ´ s w r i t t e n c o n s e n t
Embraer Market Forecast (2009-2028)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
TP 30-60 TP 61-90 TP >90 Jet 30-60 Jet 61-90 Jet 91-
120
Jet 121-
145
Jet 146-
175
Jet 176-
210
Jet 211-
400
Jet >400
Number of New Aircraft Deliveries - World
30,750
Aircraft
2019-2028
2009-2018
650 1,400 1,000
3,050
650 2,450 3,650
6,750
4,300 8,000 2,350
14,650
5,400 900
6,300
Source: Embraer
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets around the world: 52 Airlines / 35 Countries
Thank You