7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

1/59

The ScienceBehind

the Stadium

Jack Moehle

Professor of Civil EngineeringDirector of the Pacific EarthquakeEngineering Research Center

Thanks toYousef Bozorgnia, PEERJonathan Bray, UC Berkeley

Craig Comartin, CDCDoug Dreger, UC BerkeleyDavid Friedman, Forell/ElsesserNick Sitar, UC BerkeleyDon Wells, GeomatrixUSGS

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

2/59

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

3/59

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

4/59

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

5/59

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

6/59

A project of this scale requireslots of planning and the abilityof react to uncertain events

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

7/59

Seismic upgrade timeline

1/05

1/07

1/06

1/08

1/09

Birgeneauannounces

plans

Big Game Temporaryinjunctionagainst

construction

Lawsuits

filed

J udgerules infavor of

UCB

Appealdenied

preliminarystudies

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

8/59

Steeped in controversy

Oakland Tribune,25 Sept. 1921

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

9/59

Memorial Stadium at StrawberryCanyon,

John Galen Howard, the Strawberry Canyon site, 1922

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

10/59

Strawberry Canyon, lookingsouth, 1915

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

11/59

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

12/59

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

13/59

Memorial Stadium open for Big

Game in 1923

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

14/59

View looking east, 1931

Bancroft Library

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

15/59

Strawberry Canyon

Doolin, Wells,Williams, 2004

CutFill

Creek

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

16/59

Creek offsets

Geomatrix

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

17/59

Strawberry Creekgeomorphic interpretation of 1897 topography

Geomatrix

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

18/59

Bay Area Faults (partial)

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

19/59

Offset curbs

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

20/59

Pavementcracks

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

21/59

Fault creep

curb offsets major cracks in culvertobserved in 1948,

1954, 1965, and 1999curb offsets

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

22/59

Fault creep

Rigid structure connectedto east side of fault

Rigid structure connectedto west side of fault

Expansion joints

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

23/59

Fault creep

Rigid structure connectedto east side of fault

Rigid structure connectedto west side of fault

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

24/59

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

25/59

Fault creep

Rigid structure connectedto east side of fault

Rigid structure connectedto west side of fault

offset

Forell/Elsesser

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

26/59

Where is the fault, andwhere isnt it?

Geomatrix, ca 2000

Footprint of SHPAC

CreepingTrace

Primary: 3-5 ft

Secondary:

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

27/59

Trenches and borings

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

28/59

Trenches through fault zone, southside

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

29/59

Trench at south sideTrench at south side Main traceMain trace

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

30/59

Trench at SAHPC

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

31/59

Trench at SAHPCTrench at SAHPC

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

32/59

North end of stadium

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

33/59

South end of stadium

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

34/59

Trench parties

Tailgate

parties

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

35/59

Probabili ty of a major

quake in the Bay Area

(M6.7 or greater) in the

next 30 years is 62%

USGS 2008

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

36/59

Douglas Dreger (UCB),

Shawn Larsen (LLNL)

Simulation of M7on Hayward Faultusing massivelyparallel computers

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

37/59

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

38/59

Earthquakes on Hayward fault

> On average, once every 140

years; last event 1868.> Maximum magnitude in the range

7.1 to 7.4

> Loss projections for M7

$170B 200,000 homeless

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

39/59

The solution CMS

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

40/59

Would the stadium be safer at theoriginal Ellsworth site?

Campbell and

Bozorgnia, 2008

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

41/59

Next to the fault is no worse thanat some distance, provided notilting

Turkey, 1999(Bozorgnia)

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

42/59

San Fernando, 1971

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

43/59

Taiwan, 1999(Sitar)

Straddling a fault can be achallenge

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

44/59

even in nature

Bray

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

45/59

Bray

Bunkers and other solid structures

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

46/59

Bunkers and other solid structures

Bray

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

47/59

The solution - SAHPC

Forell/Elsesser

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

48/59

The solution - SAHPC

Forell/Elsesser

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

49/59

The solution CMS

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

50/59

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

51/59

The solution CMS

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

52/59

The solution CMS

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

53/59

The solution CMS

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

54/59

The solution CMS

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

55/59

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

56/59

The solution CMS

Forell/Elsesser

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

57/59

The solution CMS

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

58/59

Whats ahead

7/30/2019 2008 the Science Behind the Stadium Presentation

59/59

Some closing thoughts

> The SCIENCE

> The RISK

> The LAW

> The MONEY

> The SCHEDULE

> The GAME