2009-01-26 cee valuation monitor

8/14/2019 2009-01-26 CEE Valuation Monitor

1/66

Weekly CEE Valuation Monitor

Prices as of

Source for all tables and charts:Company data, Factset, Reuters,Erste Bank

January 23, 2009


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Erste Group Research - Weekly CEE Valuation Monitor Page 2

Page

Banks 3

Basic Resources 8

Chemicals 11

Construction & Materials 13

Food & Beverages 17

Healthcare 22

Industrial Goods & Services 26

Insurance 30

Media 33

Oil & Gas 36

Personal & Household Goods 40

Real Estate 42

Retail & Distribution 46

Technology 51

Telecom 55

Travel & Tourism 58

Utilities 60

Contacts 63

Disclosures 65


3/66



Banks1/23/2009 Rep. Mcap Recommendation

Curr. Current Target

Company (EURmn) 1M 3M 6M 12M

Aik Banka AD Nis RSD 190 2,483.0 Under review 19.6% -31.5% -71.5% -76.6%Banca Transilvania RON 220 0.890 u.r. Accumulate -68.7% -71.5% -74.9% -81.2%Bank Pekao PLN 6,395 107.9 184.0 Hold -18.0% -15.9% -55.0% -54.1%BRD - Group SG RON 1,097 6.8 Accumulate -24.5% -29.6% -70.2% -69.9%BRE Bank PLN 935 139.5 410.0 Hold -33.7% -20.4% -73.6% -68.6%BZ WBK PLN 1,377 83.5 165.0 Hold -29.0% -24.6% -58.4% -61.0%FHB HUF 143 628.0 1,200.0 Hold -18.2% -11.8% -57.0% -62.6%Komercijalna Banka RSD 237 25,900.0 u.r. Reduce 8.0% -33.4% -67.2% -74.4%Komercni banka CZK 3,117 2,306.0 4,700.0 Accumulate -28.1% -22.5% -50.4% -33.4%OTP HUF 2,166 2,240.0 3,300.0 Hold -30.0% -20.7% -74.5% -73.1%PKO BP PLN 6,408 28.4 55.0 Accumulate -23.6% -6.5% -56.4% -45.0%Raiffeisen International EUR 2,159 14.0 30.0 Accumulate -29.0% -47.3% -83.6% -81.9%

Unicredit SpA EUR 16,714 - - - -24.9% -32.8% -68.4% -74.9%KBC Groupe SA EUR 4,664 - - - -41.9% -54.2% -81.9% -85.9%Svenska Handelsbanken AB SEK 5,405 - - - -21.1% -33.7% -46.4% -54.8%

Erste Group Bank AG EUR 3,249 - - - -30.7% -42.4% -75.7% -73.4%Societe Generale EUR 15,825 - - - -18.8% -39.4% -55.5% -60.5%

Euro Stoxx Banks 263,833 - - - -20.2% -38.2% -61.1% -65.5%

Price Performance (EUR terms)

(LC)

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010eAik Banka AD Nis 15.5 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4% 2.2% 2.3% 2.7%Banca Transilvania 15.7 1.5 2.2 1.7 4.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Bank Pekao 19.5 5.8 6.6 6.1 4.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 4.0% 10.3% 10.5% 13.2%BRD - Group SG 17.8 2.8 3.1 2.5 6.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 2.3% 14.2% 12.7% 15.4%

BRE Bank 22.1 3.1 3.4 3.5 4.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%BZ WBK 20.2 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1% 6.3% 8.4% 11.0%

FHB 22.9 5.2 5.4 5.4 3.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8%Komercijalna Banka 25.1 9.7 6.9 4.3 4.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Komercni banka 15.5 6.2 6.2 5.9 3.4 1.5 1.5 1.3 3.9% 9.6% 9.7% 10.1%OTP 11.0 1.5 4.4 4.9 2.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0% 7.5% 4.9% 4.5%

PKO BP 19.1 6.0 5.9 5.4 4.4 1.9 1.7 1.4 2.0% 6.6% 6.8% 7.4%Raiffeisen International 17.9 2.2 3.1 3.6 2.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%

Median CEE 18.5 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6% 5.0% 4.3% 4.6%Unicredit SpA 9.2 4.5 4.4 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 20.8% 0.0% 8.8% 10.8%

KBC Groupe SA 11.3 3.3 2.7 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 30.9% 0.0% 12.3% 14.4%Svenska Handelsbanken AB 8.3 6.0 6.2 5.8 1.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 16.5% 8.4% 9.2% 9.2%

Erste Group Bank AG 12.4 3.0 3.7 3.5 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 7.3% 7.3% 5.4% 6.3%Societe Generale 46.6 6.6 5.2 4.5 1.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 3.3% 4.1% 7.7% 9.7%Median 11.3 5.2 4.4 4.3 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 16.5% 4.1% 8.8% 9.7%

Euro Stoxx Banks 11.7 5.2 5.2 4.9 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 3.9% 5.3% 6.7% 7.5%CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc 64% -24% 3% 1% 134% 184% 163% 120% -96% 22% -51% -53%

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010eAik Banka AD Nis 19.3% 19.5% 18.6% 18.4% -16.6% -13.5% -14.4% -15.3% 9.3% 8.4% 7.5% 7.1%

Banca Transilvania 31.5% 35.0% 19.4% 20.5% -64.5% -62.0% -59.0% -57.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6%

Bank Pekao 17.8% 27.4% 24.4% 26.0% -50.5% -44.7% -43.4% -41.5% 2.8% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9%BRD - Group SG 39.8% 42.6% 32.1% 30.4% -45.8% -46.5% -46.2% -45.2% 4.6% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8%BRE Bank 23.7% 30.2% 23.9% 19.8% -60.5% -58.6% -55.8% -54.7% 2.0% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3%

BZ WBK 22.5% 23.6% 22.9% 22.0% -53.4% -56.7% -55.1% -54.3% 3.4% 3.9% 3.7% 3 .6%FHB 17.3% 20.4% 18.1% 16.6% -66.0% -56.2% -57.7% -58.6% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5%

Komercijalna Banka 17.8% 9.3% 11.5% 15.0% -75.1% -63.5% -58.5% -50.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.0% 4.0%Komercni banka 22.0% 25.6% 24.3% 23.5% -46.3% -45.8% -45.8% -46.1% 2.9% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0%OTP 24.9% 35.4% 11.0% 9.5% -53.1% -50.7% -55.1% -53.7% 5.6% 5.4% 5.0% 4.7%

PKO BP 25.8% 31.5% 29.9% 28.3% -54.8% -49.3% -46.3% -44.7% 4.3% 5.3% 4.8% 4 .6%Raiffeisen International 17.1% 15.4% 9.7% 7.7% -60.3% -60.4% -61.7% -61.7% 3.8% 3.9% 3.7% 3.7%

Median CEE 22.2% 26.5% 21.1% 20.2% -54.1% -53.4% -55.1% -51.8% 3.9% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7%Unicredit SpA 11.4% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% - - - - 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%

KBC Groupe SA 17.1% -4.6% 8.6% 10.9% - - - - 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3%Svenska Handelsbanken AB 14.6% 13.4% 11.7% 11.7% - - - - 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%

Erste Group Bank AG 14.0% 11.0% 8.6% 8.3% - - - - 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2%Societe Generale 3.7% 7.0% 8.3% 9.0% - - - - 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Median 14.0% 7.0% 8.6% 9.0% - - - - 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3%Euro Stoxx Banks 15.0% 8.8% 8.4% 8.4% - - - - 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc 58% 280% 147% 125% - - - - 226% 194% 177% 184%

P/BV Div yield

ROE Cost/income ratio Net interest margin

P/E


4/66



2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Aik Banka AD Nis 1.6% 30.3% 3.3% 14.6% 130.6% 21.6% 22.3% 30.0% 153% 140% 134% 129%

Banca Transilvania 163.6% 46.0% -32.5% 27.9% 66.5% 29.0% 24.6% 27.5% 86% 92% 94% 96%

Bank Pekao 17.9% 29.4% -12.6% 9.3% 127.1% 0.6% 10.1% 16.2% 83% 92% 98% 102%

BRD - Group SG 53.9% 27.2% -8.6% 21.4% 35.4% 19.1% 21.4% 29.1% 97% 96% 94% 97%BRE Bank 72.2% 58.9% -8.6% -0.9% 55.7% 13.2% 15.9% 19.3% 106% 113% 119% 122%

BZ WBK 29.7% 13.7% 1.0% 4.8% 44.8% 13.6% 16.4% 19.0% 82% 89% 94% 96%

FHB -27.1% 30.0% -3.5% 1.2% 15.8% 6.7% -0.7% 9.0% - - - -

Komercijalna Banka 205.7% -39.8% 40.6% 61.2% 86.4% 14.2% 19.5% 26.0% 84% 84% 87% 89%

Komercni banka 24.0% 24.0% 1.2% 4.2% 24.8% 18.9% 11.6% 13.9% 58% 63% 68% 72%

OTP 15.9% 64.5% -66.4% -10.1% 27.7% 13.5% -5.9% 4.8% 114% 120% 114% 114%

PKO BP 39.2% 38.6% 2.1% 8.9% 38.2% 8.7% 12.9% 16.9% 91% 98% 107% 114%

Raiffeisen International -30.0% 8.0% -28.4% -14% 40.0% 29.6% 6.0% 8.5% 121% 130% 123% 121%

Median CEE 67.3% -6.0% 6.2% 29.5% 44.8% 17.1% 8.3% 13.5% 94% 97% 102% 108%

Unicredit SpA 17.0% -55% 0.4% 2.5% 30.0% - - - - - - -

KBC Groupe SA -11.0% -123% -289.6% 21.4% 11.0% - - - - - - -

Svenska Handelsbanken AB 16.2% -45% -4.3% 6.9% 12.1% - - - - - - -

Erste Group Bank AG 26.9% -13.6% -17.4% 3.6% 17.4% - - - - - - -Societe Generale -82.8% 109% 25.9% 15.5% 14.2% - - - - - - -

Median -34.5% -58.6% 82.3% 13.5% 20.4% - - - - - - -

Euro Stoxx Banks -5.7% -63.1% 43.6% 15.1% 19.7% - - - - - - -

CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc -295% -90% -92% 119% 120% - - - - - - -

EPS growth (EUR) Customer loan growth (EUR) Loans/deposit ratio


5/66



AIK Banka latest

(RSD mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Net interest inc. 1,421.3 1,832.1 1,602.8 1,632.6 1,627.8 14.5%

Net provisions -752.8 349.7 -1,322.9 -1,029.9 -86.3 -88.5%

Net commissions 391.1 191.4 614.1 351.3 427.8 9.4%

Op. expenses -306.5 -478.4 -339.2 -383.2 n.a. n.a.Operating profit 1,052.4 2,224.3 1,264.0 1,100.1 1,100.1 4.5%

Pre-tax profit 1,052.4 2,224.3 1,264.0 1,100.1 1,828.9 73.8%

Net profit n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

CIR 14.5% 20.3% 11.6% 15.2% n.a. n.a.

Banca Transilvania latest

(RON mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Net interest inc. 103.2 174.0 141.4 142.7 153.0 48.3%

Net provisions -31.8 -12.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Net commissions 89.8 38.0 90.6 83.3 93.0 3.6%

Op. expenses -133.0 -157.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Operating profit 94.0 76.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Pre-tax profit 62.3 248.0 71.2 60.3 338.0 442.5%Net profit 54.0 207.0 62.2 49.3 285.0 427.8%

CIR 58.6% 67.4% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Bank Pekao latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007* 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Net interest inc. 1,101.0 847.7 1,122.7 1,142.4 1,134.9 3.1%

Net provisions -78.0 -44.7 -50.3 -71.6 -37.6 -51.8%

Net commissions 756.5 556.3 610.9 618.7 559.2 -26.1%

Op. expenses -923.5 -862.4 -929.2 -964.4 -944.8 2.3%

Operating profit 1,091.9 672.9 1,361.3 990.5 1,027.6 -5.9%

Pre-tax profit 1,128.7 672.9 1,398.7 1,021.3 1,052.1 -6.8%

Net profit 932.6 561.8 1,137.5 829.7 841.4 -9.8%

NIM 3.52% 3.39% 3.64% 3.74% 3.65% 0.13%p

BRD GSG latest

(RON mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Net interest inc. 285.0 400.0 321.0 313.0 325.0 14.0%

Net provisions -68.0 -135.0 -62.0 -89.0 -75.0 10.3%

Net commissions 256.0 308.0 283.0 305.0 316.0 23.4%

Op. expenses -257.0 -360.0 -308.0 -324.0 n.a. n.a.

Operating profit 318.0 279.0 320.0 299.0 n.a. n.a.

Pre-tax profit 318.0 279.0 320.0 299.0 628.0 97.5%

Net profit 265.0 235.0 259.0 256.0 524.0 97.7%

CIR 40.0% 45.6% 44.6% 45.5% n.a. n.a.

BRE Bank latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/yNet interest inc. 267.8 291.1 315.3 326.9 364.0 35.9%

Net provisions -34.8 -36.2 -22.2 -45.6 -70.8 103.5%

Net commissions 139.0 135.7 150.4 155.0 147.2 5.9%

Op. expenses -313.8 -437.0 -422.5 -388.2 -377.0 20.1%

Operating profit 219.2 204.7 284.6 219.8 260.2 18.7%

Pre-tax profit 219.2 204.7 427.6 293.4 260.2 18.7%

Net profit 164.3 142.0 350.8 289.5 202.5 23.3%

NIM 2.13% 2.16% 2.16% 2.09% 2.20% 0.07%p

52 weeks

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Aik Banka AD NisBELEX 15 (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)

52 weeks

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80

100

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220

Bank PekaoWIG 20 (Rebased)

DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)

52 weeks

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24

BRD - Group SGBET (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)

52 weeks

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BRE Bank WIG 20 (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)

52 weeks

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Banca TransilvaniaBET (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)


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BZ WBK latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Net interest inc. 329.0 363.6 375.7 401.4 429.5 30.6%

Net provisions -21.5 -6.8 -6.0 -13.9 -43.8 103.4%

Net commissions 387.9 401.4 349.3 363.3 343.8 -11.4%

Op. expenses -383.0 -496.0 -405.9 -440.1 -431.5 12.7%Operating profit 343.5 269.2 348.6 439.5 343.3 -0.1%

Pre-tax profit 343.5 269.2 348.5 439.5 342.2 -0.4%

Net profit 225.7 170.4 243.1 324.4 247.1 9.5%

NIM 3.57% 3.65% 3.49% 3.49% 3.59% 0.02%p

FHB latest

(HUF mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Net interest inc. 4,150 4,035 4,137 4,102 4,243 2.2%

Net provisions -130 -285 -205 -441 -244 88.2%

Net commissions 184 819 469 424 429 133.6%

Op. expenses -3,399 -3,935 -3,042 -3,054 -3,025 -11.0%

Operating profit 1,455 1,810 3,232 1,722 2,471 69.9%

Pre-tax profit 1,455 1,810 3,232 1,722 2,471 69.9%Net profit 1,320 1,209 2,326 1,134 1,601 21.3%

NIM 2.83% 2.67% 2.64% 2.59% 2.61% -0.22%p

Komercijalna banka latest

(RSD mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Net interest inc. 1,361.3 1,179.9 1,388.0 1,543.8 1,532.2 12.6%

Net provisions -246.6 1,585.9 -94.0 -125.8 256.0 n.a.

Net commissions 721.4 742.0 725.0 765.2 734.9 1.9%

Op. expenses -1,602.2 -2,168.2 -1,717.0 -1,757.2 n.a. n.a.

Operating profit 409.9 1,604.0 401.0 879.6 786.3 91.8%

Pre-tax profit 409.9 1,604.0 401.0 879.6 786.3 91.8%

Net profit n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

CIR 70.9% 99.2% 77.7% 63.6% n.a. n.a.

Komercni banka latest

(CZK mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Net interest inc. 4,781 4,971 5,074 5,236 5,276 10.4%

Net provisions -267 -281 -458 -452 -729 173.0%

Net commissions 2,296 2,428 1,954 2,105 1,989 -13.4%

Op. expenses -3,414 -3,585 -3,569 -3,636 -3,456 1.2%


Pre-tax profit 3,608 3,948 3,747 4,171 4,271 18.4%

Net profit 2,864 3,064 3,021 3,391 3,461 20.8%

NIM 2.98% 3.04% 3.03% 3.09% 3.09% 0.12%p

OTP Bank latest

(HUF mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/yNet interest inc. 111,810 114,713 117,873 123,994 130,007 16.3%

Net provisions -8,132 -16,663 -12,279 -15,836 -17,247 112.1%

Net commissions 33,641 38,433 34,202 34,562 34,851 3.6%

Op. expenses -84,677 -99,687 -89,114 -93,686 -96,069 13.5%


Pre-tax profit 66,936 59,063 67,790 85,018 168,668 152.0%

Net profit 55,751 50,932 55,335 63,933 50,105 -10.1%

NIM 5.47% 5.34% 5.41% 5.57% 5.68% 0.21%p

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BZ WBK WIG 20 (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)

52 weeks

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FHB BUX (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)

52 weeks

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Komercni banka PX (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)

52 weeks

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Komercijalna BankaBELEX 15 (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)

52 weeks

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OTP BUX (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)


7/66



PKO BP latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Net interest inc. 1,208.9 1,313.7 1,427.3 1,487.2 1,591.6 31.7%

Net provisions -25.3 80.6 -26.8 -149.9 -251.3 895.1%

Net commissions 607.5 612.7 590.8 581.4 594.2 -2.2%

Op. expenses -1,000.3 -1,190.5 -947.9 -1,062.1 -1,159.0 15.9%Operating profit 928.6 1,066.6 1,186.7 1,147.4 114.8 -87.6%

Pre-tax profit 928.6 1,066.6 1,190.0 1,160.9 1,117.2 20.3%

Net profit 745.3 874.8 951.2 897.2 904.2 21.3%

NIM 4.59% 4.83% 5.13% 5.14% 5.31% 0.72%p

Raiffeisen International latest

(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Net interest inc. 625.0 715.1 711.1 786.5 844.1 35.1%

Net provisions -88.8 -114.9 -93.0 -108.3 -164.2 84.9%

Net commissions 322.8 354.8 330.8 372.0 394.9 22.3%

Op. expenses -535.0 -646.3 -584.4 -665.5 -689.7 28.9%

Operating profit 346.8 284.2 369.6 473.1 418.3 20.6%

Pre-tax profit 346.8 284.2 369.6 473.1 418.3 20.6%Net profit 224.3 215.6 254.4 311.3 295.8 31.9%

NIM 3.84% 4.08% 3.81% 4.00% 4.02% 0.18%p

52 weeks

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15

20

2530

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PKO BP WIG 20 (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)

52 weeks

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5060

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90

100110120

Raiffeisen InternationalATX (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Banks (Rebased)


8/66



Basic Resources

1/23/2009 Rep. Mcap Recommendation


Company (EURmn) 1M 3M 6M 12MKGHM PLN 1,243 27.5 74.0 Hold -7.3% 7.9% -75.8% -73.7%

Mayr-Melnhof EUR 1,100 50.0 57.0 Hold 1.4% 0.6% -12.9% -23.7%

RHI EUR 446 11.9 19.0 Buy 9.2% -26.1% -60.3% -49.0%

Teak Holz Int. EUR 16 2.6 4.5 Accumulate -0.8% -33.2% -48.2% -62.4%

voestalpine EUR 2,301 14.5 u.r. Accumulate -3.2% -12.7% -66.2% -65.6%

Sub Steel 25,731 - - - - - - -

Sub Metals & Mining 172,871 - - - - - - -

Sub Pulp & Paper 8,996 - - - - - - -

Total Peer Group 207,598 - - - - - - -

EuroStoxx Basic Resources - 57,248 - - - -5.6% -11.7% -59.7% -51.0%


(LC)

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010eKGHM 5.9 1.6 2.5 2.8 5.5 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

Mayr-Melnhof 14.2 11.0 12.0 10.2 8.1 5.7 5.9 5.3 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.0

RHI 9.1 3.4 7.7 8.0 7.0 2.6 4.7 4.6 13.2 2.1 1.6 1.3

Teak Holz Int. 2.5 7.4 2.4 1.0 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1

voestalpine 9.7 3.1 3.8 3.8 4.0 1.5 1.9 1.8 2.3 0.7 0.6 0.6

Median CEE 9.1 3.4 3.8 3.8 5.5 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.3 0.7 0.6 0.6

Median Sub Steel 3.8 3.7 7.2 5.8 2.8 2.6 4.3 3.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7

Median Sub Metals & Mining 4.7 6.4 8.5 7.9 3.4 4.5 4.3 4.4 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.7

Median Sub Pulp & Paper 7.4 17.3 13.1 13.0 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5Median Total Peer Group 4.8 6.4 8.7 8.6 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7

EuroStoxx Basic Resources 10.5 4.8 8.4 6.4 7.4 3.4 3.8 3.6 1.9 0.6 0.6 0.6

CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc 91% -47% -57% -56% 62% -61% -53% -46% 183% -9% -14% -14%

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

KGHM 1.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 3.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 8.1% 30.2% 18.2% 16.0%

Mayr-Melnhof 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 6.1 4.3 4.2 3.6 2.3% 3.6% 3.8% 4.0%

RHI 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 8.1 4.7 6.6 6.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0%

Teak Holz Int. 336.8 68.4 5.4 7.1 n.m. n.m. 26.4 356.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

voestalpine 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 6.9 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.8% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5%Median CEE 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 6.1 3.8 4.2 4.1 2.3% 3.6% 3.8% 4.0%

Median Sub Steel 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 5.9 2.7 3.2 2.8 7.9% 7.9% 5.9% 6.0%

Median Sub Metals & Mining 2.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 7.8 4.6 5.4 4.8 4.9% 4.5% 4.0% 3 .6%

Median Sub Pulp & Paper 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 7.0 6.8 5.7 5.2 10.1% 5.5% 5.5% 5.7%Median Total Peer Group 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 7.6 4.9 5.4 4.8 5.9% 5.2% 4.5% 4.7%

EuroStoxx Basic Resources 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 6.4 3.5 4.5 3.9 4.2% 5.6% 5.6% 5.9%

CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc 3% -1% -7% -7% -20% -22% -21% -15% -61% -31% -15% -15%

P/CE P/BV

EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Dividend yield

P/E


9/66



2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

KGHM 41.9% 34.4% 30.0% 28.9% 31.2% 24.5% 20.2% 19.0% 44.0% 31.7% 20.9% 17.8%

Mayr-Melnhof 14.9% 13.1% 12.4% 13.2% 6.7% 5.6% 5.2% 5.9% 13.2% 10.6% 9.4% 10.3%

RHI 14.5% 15.0% 10.8% 10.5% 7.5% 8.5% 4.4% 4.3% - 86.9% 23.6% 18.3%

Teak Holz Int. - -828% 20.6% 2.0% 8544% 540% 129.1% 378.3% - 2.0% 5.9% 12.7%

voestalpine 17.5% 17.0% 15.4% 15.2% 7.4% 6.9% 5.9% 5.9% 24.5% 23.2% 16.9% 15.4%

Median CEE 14.9% 15.0% 15.4% 13.2% 7.5% 8.5% 5.9% 5.9% 18.8% 23.2% 16.9% 15.4%

Median Sub Steel 20.2% 18.6% 13.6% 16.0% 9.6% 8.7% 6.0% 7.2% 22.4% 19.9% 9.6% 11.2%

Median Sub Metals & Mining 16.4% 16.0% 13.0% - 12.2% 7.0% 5.7% 6.2% 23.3% 15.6% 8.6% 9.8%

Median Sub Pulp & Paper 14.9% 11.9% 13.5% 13.4% 0.5% 1.4% 3.0% 3.0% 7.8% 4.0% 4.3% 4.3%

Median Total Peer Group 16.6% 14.4% 13.3% 13.3% 9.4% 6.8% 5.1% 5.8% 21.7% 15.9% 8.2% 9.9%

EuroStoxx Basic Resources 15.5% 14.7% 13.4% 14.5% 8.9% 6.3% 4.2% 5.1% 18.4% 19.2% 9.4% 10.2%

CEE to Peer, ppt -1.7 0.6 2.1 -0.1 -2.0 1.7 0.8 0.0 -2.8 7.3 8.7 5.6

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

KGHM 15.6% -19.3% -31.2% - 15.2% -22.7% -35.1% -

Mayr-Melnhof 7.6% -10.7% -5.9% 9.6% 8.9% -13.1% -7.9% 17.0%

RHI 20.1% 11.5% -36.5% -5.3% -47.3% 13.9% -55.5% -4.4%

Teak Holz Int. - - - -92% - - - 136.2%voestalpine 35.2% 11.8% -11.4% -1.4% -5.9% 4.2% -18.6% -0.7%

CEE total 24.2% -1.3% -18.6% -3% 6.3% -19.3% -22.3% 13.8%

Median Sub Steel 8.3% -7.7% -28.5% 14.5% 55.9% 0.4% -51.8% 18.8%

Median Sub Metals & Mining -2.7% 14.2% -5.4% -1.1% -4.8% -2.8% -28.7% 21.3%

Median Sub Pulp & Paper -3.4% -27.0% 4.9% 2.3% 7.8% -54.0% 34.7% 7.0%

Peer Group total -1.0% 7.9% -8.5% 0.9% 27.1% -2.8% -42.6% 19.3%

EuroStoxx Basic Resources 6.7% 12.9% -35.1% 16.1% 40.1% 5.3% -50.4% 19.8%

CEE to Peer, ppt 25.1 -9.2 -10.1 -3.6 -20.8 -16.5 20.3 -5.5

EBITDA margin Net margin ROE

EBITDA growth (EUR) EPS growth (EUR)


10/66



52 weeks

20

40

60

80

10 0

12 0

14 0

KGHMWIG 20 (Rebased)

DJ EURO STOXX Basic Resources (Rebased)

52 weeks

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

10 0

11 0

Mayr-MelnhofATX (Rebased)

DJ EURO STOXX Basic Resources (Rebased)

52 weeks

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

RHI ATX (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Bas ic Resources (Rebased)

52 weeks

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Teak Holz Int.ATX Prime (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Basic Resources (Rebased)

52 weeks

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

voestalpineATX (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Basic Resources (Rebased)

KGHM latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 y/y

Sales 3,411.0 2912.3 3,002.0 3,029.0 2,720.0 -20.3%

EBITDA 1,533.9 1095 1,284.0 1,143.0 1,012.0 -34.0%

EBIT 1,428.0 986.77 1,168.0 1,027.0 896.0 -37.3%

Net profit 1,162.9 791.68 982.7 832.0 718.0 -38.3%EBITDA margin 45.0% 37.6% 42.8% 37.7% 37.2%

EBIT margin 41.9% 33.9% 38.9% 33.9% 32.9%

Net margin 34.1% 27.2% 32.7% 27.5% 26.4%

Mayr-Melnhof latest

(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 455.2 444.5 452.9 442.1 443.8 -2.5%

EBITDA 67.7 60.8 62.3 59.4 52.0 -23.2%

EBIT 46.7 37.2 42.4 35.9 30.6 -34.5%

Net profit 32.9 24.7 27 27.3 22.4 -31.9%

EBITDA margin 14.9% 13.7% 13.8% 13.4% 11.7%

EBIT margin 10.3% 8.4% 9.4% 8.1% 6.9%

Net margin 7.2% 5.6% 6.0% 6.2% 5.0%

RHI latest

(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 367.10 386.70 394.60 415.00 414.10 12.8%

EBITDA 54.70 55.70 58.90 63.80 62.20 13.7%

EBIT 42.00 41.50 46.60 51.20 49.90 18.8%

Net profit 27.90 28.90 33.80 36.30 36.40 30.5%

EBITDA margin 14.9% 14.4% 14.9% 15.4% 15.0%

EBIT margin 11.4% 10.7% 11.8% 12.3% 12.1%

Net margin 7.6% 7.5% 8.6% 8.7% 8.8%

Teak Holz International latest

(EUR mn) 3Q06/07 4Q06/07 1Q07/08 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 y/ySales 0.08 -0.63 0.07 0.02 0.14 90.8%

EBITDA -1.80 23.21 -0.48 -0.40 -0.40 -77.5%

EBIT -1.81 23.19 -0.50 -0.44 -0.43 -76.0%

Net profit -1.82 23.30 -0.59 -0.56 -0.43 -76.5%

EBITDA margin - - - - -

EBIT margin - - - - -

Net margin - - - - -

voestalpine latest

(EUR mn) 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 4Q07/08 1Q08/09 2Q08/09 y/y

Sales 2,763.2 2,752.7 3,033.6 3,255.0 3,231.2 16.9%

EBITDA 498.90 455.90 474.60 542.60 600.80 20.4%

EBIT 302.20 258.10 278.00 357.70 427.80 41.6%

Net profit 193.50 163.00 121.30 217.50 257.60 33.1%

EBITDA margin 18.1% 16.6% 15.6% 16.7% 18.6%

EBIT margin 10.9% 9.4% 9.2% 11.0% 13.2%

Net margin 7.0% 5.9% 4.0% 6.7% 8.0%


11/66



Chemicals




PannErgy* HUF 51 700.0 1,559.0 Hold -8.9% -13.1% -52.1% -58.2%Pegas Nonwovens EUR 79 240.0 505.0 Hold -1.0% 1.4% -41.6% -66.2%

Synthos PLN 123 0.41 0.56 Hold -15.5% -45.3% -58.6% -69.1%

EuroStoxx Chemicals EUR 104,658 - - - -5.1% -7.1% -38.2% -32.7%


(LC)

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

PannErgy* 103.1 n.m. 69.6 49.1 24.3 11.4 12.2 11.7 2.6 1.0 1.1 1.0

Pegas Nonwovens 11.8 3.6 3.6 3.4 8.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.8 0.7 0.7 0.6

Synthos 3.7 2.9 13.9 15.3 2.9 1.6 3.0 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.4

Median CEE 11.8 n.m. 13.9 15.3 8.3 2.1 3.0 3.1 2.6 0.7 0.7 0.6

EuroStoxx Chemicals 6.8 6.3 8.1 7.4 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0

CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc 74% - 72% 107% 106% -52% -32% -25% 135% -30% -36% -38%

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

PannErgy* 2.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 45.5 10.0 11.3 10.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pegas Nonwovens 3.1 1.4 1.2 1.2 9.9 4.7 4.2 4.1 2.7% 9.8% 10.8% 11.9%

Synthos 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 13.3 2.0 3.1 3.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Median CEE 2.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 13.3 4.7 4.2 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EuroStoxx Chemicals 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.5 4.3 4.7 4.3 6% 7% 7% 7%

CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc 180% 74% 88% 83% 78% 10% -10% -5% -100% -100% -100% -100%

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

PannErgy* 6.1% 10.9% 10.7% 10.9% 2.6% 0.1% 1.5% 2.2% 2.9% 0.1% 1.6% 2.4%

Pegas Nonwovens 31.6% 28.6% 28.7% 28.4% 18.2% 15.0% 14.7% 15.3% 25.9% 22.1% 19.6% 18.6%

Synthos 8.3% 11.6% 10.1% 10.0% 26.4% 5.2% 1.7% 1.6% 45.9% 11.7% 2.5% 2.3%

Median CEE 8.3% 11.6% 10.7% 10.9% 18.2% 5.2% 1.7% 2.2% 25.9% 11.7% 2.5% 2.4%

EuroStoxx Chemicals 16.3% 15.8% 14.0% 15.0% 6.2% 5.7% 4.9% 5.5% 17.6% 17.0% 11.5% 11.6%

CEE to Peer, ppt -8.0 -4.2 -3.2 -4.1 11.9 -0.5 -3.2 -3.3 8.3 -5.3 -9.0 -9.2

2007 2007e 2008e 2009e 2006 2007e 2008e 2009e

PannErgy* -44.1% 73.6% -11.2% 2.5% -59.4% -97.6% 2099.7% 41.8%

Pegas Nonwovens -8.5% 10.0% 1.0% -0.6% 9.0% 0.1% -0.9% 4.4%

Synthos 5.2% 134.5% -43.3% -5.5% 396.7% -67.4% -78.9% -9.5%

CEE total -4.9% 73.6% -28.8% -3.0% 7.6% -5.0% -0.5% 4.9%

EuroStoxx Chemicals 8.9% 4.9% -8.4% 6.9% 20.6% 11.1% -14.3% 12.7%

CEE to Peer, ppt -13.8 68.7 -20.4 -9.9 -13.0 -16.1 13.8 -7.8

P/E P/CE P/BV




*PannErgy is in transition, changing its profile from a specialized chemicals company to alternative energy.


12/66



PannErgy latest

(HUF mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 3,407.0 3789 3,722.0 3,050.0 3,435.0 0.8%

EBITDA 213.0 312 528.0 331.0 474.0 122.5%

EBIT -61.0 20 257.0 68.0 209.0 n.a.

Net profit 627.0 -374 -599.0 -577.0 -539.0 n.a.

EBITDA margin 6.3% 8.2% 14.2% 10.9% 13.8%

EBIT margin -1.8% 0.5% 6.9% 2.2% 6.1%

Net margin 18.4% -9.9% -16.1% -18.9% -15.7%

Pegas Nowovens latest

(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 30.0 31.2 37.78 37.59 35.42 18.1%

EBITDA 9.3 8.3 10.48 10.48 9.74 4.7%

EBIT 6.2 5.1 6.41 6.41 5.39 -13.1%

Net profit 9.8 9.7 11.6 11.6 0.3 -97.2%

EBITDA margin 31.0% 26.6% 27.7% 27.9% 27.5%EBIT margin 20.7% 16.3% 17.0% 17.1% 15.2%

Net margin 32.7% 31.1% 30.6% 30.8% 0.8%

Synthos latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 646.22 555.96 725.71 718.94 731.12 13.1%

EBITDA 54.92 9.85 7 4.88 86.18 85.87 56.3%

EBIT 21.56 -22.99 43.39 53.90 56.04 159.9%

Net profit 406.63 33.19 32.97 54.42 41.68 -89.7%

EBITDA margin 8.5% 1.8% 10.3% 12.0% 11.7%

EBIT margin 3.3% -4.1% 6.0% 7.5% 7.7%

Net margin 62.9% 6.0% 4.5% 7.6% 5.7%

52 weeks

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

PannErgy BUX (Rebased) DJ STOXX Chemicals (Rebased)

52 weeks

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Pegas Nonwovens PX (Rebased) DJ STOXX Chemicals (Rebased)

52 weeks

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

Synthos WIG (Rebased) DJ STOXX Chemicals (Rebased)


13/66



Construction & Materials




Ceramika Nowa Gala PLN 34.0 2.6 6.0 Buy 4.6% -34.2% -45.6% -51.3%

Cersanit PLN 296.1 9.1 25.0 Buy -40.5% -37.0% -55.5% -72.4%

Koelner PLN 58.9 8.0 Under review -2.2% -14.4% -59.3% -79.1%

PBG S.A. PLN 585.6 192.9 305.0 Buy -9.4% -10.6% -40.4% -41.1%

Polimex PLN 259.3 2.5 5.7 Hold -21.0% -18.3% -65.9% -69.2%

STRABAG EUR 1,623.4 14.2 21.0 Hold -10.7% -11.0% -67.8% -62.2%

Wienerberger EUR 913.4 10.9 21.0 Accumulate -10.5% -17.3% -39.7% -65.0%

Sub Materials 25,356 - - - - - - -

Sub Construction 35,386 - - - - - - -

Total Peer Group 70,302 - - - - - - -

EuroStoxx Construction

Materials - 88,187 - - - -8.8% -0.5% -35.2% -45.3%


(LC)

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Ceramika Nowa Gala 18.4 5.2 5.5 5.3 9.3 2.8 3.0 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.7

Cersanit 38.7 6.6 6.2 5.5 21.4 4.0 3.9 3.6 5.3 0.9 0.9 0.7

Koelner 134.8 4.3 3.6 3.1 30.6 4.2 2.6 2.3 3.6 0.7 0.6 0.5

PBG S.A. 40.3 13.3 11.9 10.1 17.5 14.8 12.4 8.8 5.4 2.3 2.0 1.7

Polimex 40.3 7.7 7.0 5.6 56.9 14.0 14.6 9.7 4.0 1.0 0.9 0.8

STRABAG 23.7 6.2 8.3 11.1 8.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 1.9 0.5 0.5 0.5

Wienerberger 11.0 n.m. 6.4 4.8 5.7 5.2 2.5 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.4

Median CEE 38.7 6.2 6.4 5.5 17.5 4.2 3.0 3.0 3.6 0.7 0.7 0.7

Median Sub Materials 5.0 5.5 6.9 6.9 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6

Median Sub Construction 9.6 8.8 9.2 8.7 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.8 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3Median Total Peer Group 7.0 8.2 9.0 8.2 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7

EuroStoxx ConstructionMaterials 6.4 5.9 6.4 6.6 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7

CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc 452% -25% -29% -32% 322% 11% -21% -12% 324% -13% -21% 4%

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Ceramika Nowa Gala 2.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 11.7 3.1 3.4 3.2 1.7% 19.6% 18.4% 18.9%

Cersanit 3.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 17.3 4.9 4.9 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Koelner 2.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 24.0 4.6 4.0 3.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

PBG S.A. 3.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 33.3 9.0 8.3 7.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Polimex 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 39.9 11.1 10.5 8.4 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 2.0%

STRABAG 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 8.4 3.4 3.6 3.9 1.1% 5.6% 4.0% 3.3%

Wienerberger 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 7.9 6.0 6.4 5.6 3.8% 4.6% 6.9% 9.2%Median CEE 2.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 17.3 4.9 4.9 5.0 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 2.0%

Median Sub Materials 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 6.8 4.6 4.9 4.4 7.3% 7.1% 7.8% 7.5%

Median Sub Construction 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 8.3 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.5% 6.0% 6.1% 6.6%Median Total Peer Group 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 7.3 5.2 5.2 4.7 5.9% 6.1% 6.4% 6.7%


Materials 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 7.8 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.1% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6%

CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc 194% 14% 32% 51% 138% -7% -6% 6% -98% -92% -93% -70%

P/E P/CE P/BV



14/66



2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Ceramika Nowa Gala 24.4% 25.7% 25.3% 25.1% 10.6% 10.9% 11.4% 11.8% 9.4% 12.6% 12.6% 13.3%

Cersanit 22.3% 22.3% 23.1% 22.6% 8.3% 9.4% 10.7% 10.6% 15.0% 15.4% 14.3% 14.3%

Koelner 10.6% 12.7% 14.0% 14.1% 1.8% 6.2% 7.6% 8.2% 3.1% 16.1% 18.2% 18.3%

PBG S.A. 10.1% 12.6% 13.2% 13.6% 8.5% 8.3% 8.6% 8.6% 17.6% 18.7% 18.0% 18.2%Polimex 3.2% 3.0% 3.2% 3.6% 3.3% 3.0% 3.3% 3.7% 15.0% 12.5% 13.4% 15.4%

STRABAG 6.1% 6.1% 5.6% 5.6% 2.1% 2.3% 1.6% 1.2% 9.1% 8.9% 6.3% 4.5%

Wienerberger 22.2% 16.7% 17.0% 19.0% 11.9% -0.9% 7.6% 9.6% 14.1% -2.5% 7.0% 8.8%

Median CEE 10.6% 12.7% 14.0% 14.1% 8.3% 6.2% 7.6% 8.6% 14.1% 12.6% 13.4% 14.3%

Median Sub Materials 20.6% 17.6% 17.5% 16.8% 7.0% 6.4% 5.8% 6.1% 14.9% 11.5% 9.6% 8.6%

Median Sub Construction 7.7% 7.6% 7.5% 4.5% 4.3% 3.7% 3.7% 3.3% 19.5% 18.4% 15.4% 14.8%

Median Total Peer Group 13.6% 12.1% 11.7% 12.0% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 4.2% 16.1% 14.0% 11.8% 11.1%


Materials 15.5% 14.8% 14.3% 13.9% 7.3% 4.6% 4.5% 4.1% 18.1% 14.1% 12.1% 11.1%

CEE to Peer, ppt -3.0 0.6 2.3 2.1 3.2 1.6 3.1 4.4 -2.0 -1.4 1.7 3.2

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Ceramika Nowa Gala 36.4% 68.9% -13.1% -1.3% 25.3% 38.7% -5.9% 3.1%

Cersanit 55.9% 17.8% 2.4% 10.2% -14.8% 28.2% 7.5% 11.5%Koelner -10.1% 83.3% 9.4% 8.8% -79.7% 514% 21.0% 16.5%

PBG S.A. 58.9% 115.1% 13.4% 19.8% 71.9% 54.4% 12.2% 17.1%

Polimex 77.5% 26.0% 5.6% 24.3% 40.1% 23.4% 8.9% 26.3%

STRABAG 18.6% 26.7% 4.0% -6.8% -24.9% 12.7% -25.9% -25.4%

Wienerberger 16.4% -27.1% -2.6% 13.2% 17.5% - - 33.3%

CEE total 21.0% 7.2% 2.5% 2.7% 5.9% -27.4% 38.3% 11.2%

Median Sub Materials 10.1% -0.7% -7.0% 5.0% 35.2% -6.7% -19.4% 3.9%

Median Sub Construction 11.2% 5.7% -1.2% -6.0% 26.2% 16.3% -5.0% -4.3%

Median Total Peer Group 11.2% 1.2% -4.7% -0.1% 30.3% 3.0% -12.4% -0.4%


Materials 23.0% -0.2% -1.5% 0.9% 2.5% -15.2% -12.4% 4.6%

CEE to Peer, ppt 9.9 6.0 7.3 2.8 -24.5 -30.4 50.7 11.6




15/66



Ceramika Nowa Gala latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 40.06 39.90 44.50 52.00 55.70 39.0%

EBITDA 10.57 11.90 11.91 12.80 13.80 30.6%

EBIT 7.50 7.50 7.55 7.60 8.90 18.7%

Net profit 5.98 4.20 4.79 4.90 7.10 18.7%EBITDA margin 26.4% 29.8% 26.8% 24.6% 24.8%

EBIT margin 18.7% 18.8% 17.0% 14.6% 16.0%

Net margin 14.9% 10.5% 10.8% 9.4% 12.7%

Cersanit latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 394.40 353.84 374.40 400.90 414.20 5.0%

EBITDA 100.93 66.80 78.70 86.10 95.40 -5.5%

EBIT 78.31 42.44 53.90 64.10 70.00 -10.6%

Net profit 41.29 14.12 20.70 40.60 49.20 19.2%

EBITDA margin 25.6% 18.9% 21.0% 21.5% 23.0%

EBIT margin 19.9% 12.0% 14.4% 16.0% 16.9%

Net margin 10.5% 4.0% 5.5% 10.1% 11.9%

Koelner latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 167.70 135.10 155.3 163.20 173.10 3.2%

EBITDA 20.00 -2.60 19.5 9.20 19.90 -0.5%

EBIT 14.40 -6.80 13.7 3.80 13.40 -6.9%

Net profit 8.00 -20.30 3.4 -8.40 4.50 -43.8%

EBITDA margin 11.9% -1.9% 12.6% 5.6% 11.5%

EBIT margin 8.6% -5.0% 8.8% 2.3% 7.7%

Net margin 4.8% -15.0% 2.2% -5.1% 2.6%

PBG latest

(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/ySales 350.68 577.26 307.30 506.30 543.20 54.9%

EBITDA 31.71 55.15 29.80 62.10 69.00 117.6%

EBIT 23.81 44.95 20.60 51.50 57.80 142.8%

Net profit 21.49 39.48 20.70 26.40 34.50 60.5%

EBITDA margin 9.0% 9.6% 9.7% 12.3% 12.7%

EBIT margin 6.8% 7.8% 6.7% 10.2% 10.6%

Net margin 6.1% 6.8% 6.7% 5.2% 6.4%

Polimex latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 934.78 1253.49 920.72 1111.44 1086.00 16.2%

EBITDA 42.00 64.31 75.40 72.54 86.00 104.8%

EBIT 30.80 51.41 59.70 54.54 65.00 111.0%

Net profit 21.64 28.66 29.76 27.93 33.30 53.9%

EBITDA margin 4.5% 5.1% 8.2% 6.5% 7.9%

EBIT margin 3.3% 4.1% 6.5% 4.9% 6.0%

Net margin 2.3% 2.3% 3.2% 2.5% 3.1%

52 weeks

2, 0

2, 5

3, 0

3, 5

4, 0

4, 5

5, 0

5, 5

Ceramika Nowa Gala

WIG (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Construction & Material (Rebased)

52 weeks

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Cersanit

WIG (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Construction & Material (Rebased)

52 weeks

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

KoelnerWIG (Rebased)

DJ EURO STOXX Construction & Material (Rebased)

52 weeks

12 0

14 0

16 018 0

20 0

22 0

24 026 0

28 0

30 032 0

34 0

PBG S.A.WIG (Rebased)


52 weeks

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Pol imexWIG 20 (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Construction & Material (Rebased)


16/66



STRABAG latest

(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 2,814.2 3,017.7 1,762.7 3014.7 3537.1 25.7%

EBITDA 218.2 275.3 -62.3 192.4 261.2 19.7%

EBIT 149.9 184.1 -138.2 109.8 176.9 18.0%

Net profit 83.3 103.9 -81.2 82.3 113.9 36.7%EBITDA margin 7.8% 9.1% -3.5% 6.4% 7.4%

EBIT margin 5.3% 6.1% -7.8% 3.6% 5.0%

Net margin 3.0% 3.4% -4.6% 2.7% 3.2%

Wienerberger latest

(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 662.0 588.0 574.0 689.66 363.20 -45.1%

EBITDA 167.5 127.1 92.3 143.30 111.70 -33.3%

EBIT 117.8 68.8 42.6 87.58 51.40 -56.4%

Net profit 85.6 51.0 21.8 58.85 25.80 -69.9%

EBITDA margin 25.3% 21.6% 16.1% 20.8% 30.8%

EBIT margin 17.8% 11.7% 7.4% 12.7% 14.2%

Net margin 12.9% 8.7% 3.8% 8.5% 7.1%

52 weeks

10

15

2025

30

35

40

45

50

55

STRABAGATX (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Construction & Material (Rebased)

52 weeks

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

WienerbergerATX (Rebased)



17/66



Food & Beverages

1/23/2009 Rep. Mcap RecommendationCurr. Current Target


Agrana EUR 607.8 42.8 44.0 Hold 15.7% -3.2% -19.0% -36.6%Ambra PLN 9.0 1.6 2.5 Sell -10.7% -10.5% -71.2% -85.9%

CEDC USD 516.3 14.2 70.0 Hold -22.3% -29.5% -75.1% -69.2%

Duda PLN 22.7 1.0 4.2 Accumulate -19.7% -43.7% -78.9% -85.8%

Graal PLN 15.7 8.6 15.0 Hold 5.3% -19.5% -62.5% -76.3%

Jutrzenka PLN 53.0 1.6 2.4 Reduce -12.6% 5.4% -65.7% -78.8%

Pamapol PLN 11.6 2.2 4.9 Reduce -31.2% -44.2% -71.8% -83.7%

Podravka HRK 187.7 256.0 470.0 Accumulate -5.3% -17.5% -31.4% -46.1%

Davide Campari EUR 1,220 - - - -13.4% -9.4% -24.1% -27.2%

Remy Cointreau EUR 989 - - - -28.5% -23.8% -38.5% -46.3%

Finsbury Food Group Plc GBP 8 - - - 27.6% -68.9% -71.9% -83.9%

Donegal Creameries EUR 28 - - - 0.0% -34.1% -52.4% -53.3%

Nestle CHF 103,360 - - - -0.4% -8.8% -0.7% -9.4%

Kraft Foods USD 59,380 - - - 18.3% 5.3% 19.6% 10.6%Rieber & Son NOK 336 - - - 19.9% 0.3% -25.9% -32.2%

Laurent Perrier SA EUR 241 - - - -31.5% -37.6% -51.8% -63.2%

Total Peer Group 165,564 - - - - - - -

EuroStoxx Food & Beverages GBP 142,176 - - - 1.2% -1.3% -13.2% -25.4%


(LC)

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Agrana 15.9 n.m. 13.3 10.3 7.8 8.7 4.9 4.4 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7

Ambra 23.3 n.m. 275.1 19.5 14.1 n.m. 2.5 2.9 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.2

CEDC 28.0 4.4 3.7 3.1 24.8 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.9 0.5 0.4 0.4

Duda 14.2 2.5 2.9 3.0 8.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.2

Graal 16.1 4.5 5.3 5.0 8.6 1.6 2.6 2.5 1.5 0.3 0.3 0.3

Jutrzenka 40.8 10.4 9.0 8.7 9.7 3.0 4.1 4.0 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.2Pamapol 14.1 127.9 5.7 5.3 10.7 2.2 1.8 1.9 3.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

Podravka 150.8 42.7 24.6 20.0 15.2 5.6 5.0 4.6 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.7

Median CEE 19.7 4.4 5.7 5.3 10.2 2.3 2.6 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.3

Davide Campari 9.6 10.0 9.3 8.7 8.3 8.5 8.1 7.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0

Remy Cointreau 10.1 11.8 11.0 10.6 8.2 10.3 9.3 8.7 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0

Finsbury Food Group Plc 1.4 1.5 2.1 1.9 3.9 4.7 5.5 3.7 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.2

Donegal Creameries 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.0 7.6 8.0 5.2 4.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Nestle 16.1 13.4 12.8 11.8 12.7 10.4 9.5 8.7 3.3 2.5 2.5 2.1

Kraft Foods 18.0 16.4 14.3 13.2 14.4 13.0 11.0 9.4 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6

Rieber & Son 16.2 19.9 15.9 14.0 6.8 8.3 7.1 6.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.5

Laurent Perrier SA 7.0 10.6 10.0 9.2 6.8 9.2 9.5 8.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9

Median Peer Group 9.9 11.2 10.5 9.9 7.9 8.9 8.7 7.7 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0

EuroStoxx Food & Beverages 10.3 10.2 10.2 9.0 6.4 6.1 6.8 5.9 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc 100% -61% -46% -46% 29% -74% -70% -63% 27% -63% -70% -70%

P/CE P/BVP/E


18/66



2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Agrana 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 8.7 11.5 6.8 6.0 2.7% 2.3% 4.5% 4.7%

Ambra 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.4 11.7 13.0 6.6 7.5 1.2% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0%

CEDC 2.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 20.4 7.7 5.3 4.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Duda 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 12.9 4.2 4.4 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Graal 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 13.1 4.7 5.1 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Jutrzenka 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 14.4 5.9 4.9 4.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pamapol 2.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 21.5 6.4 5.2 5.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Podravka 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 14.4 7.8 6.8 6.3 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.3%

Median CEE 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 13.7 6.4 5.2 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Davide Campari 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.4 9.8 7.8 6.5 5.8 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9%

Remy Cointreau 3.3 2.5 1.9 1.8 15.4 12.8 9.1 8.4 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2%

Finsbury Food Group Plc 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 10.0 3.8 4.4 4.3 17.0% 14.2% 14.7% 14.7%

Donegal Creameries 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 7.9 4.3 4.1 3.6 5.2% 5.4% 5.7% 6.0%

Nestle 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.4 12.6 9.3 8.7 7.9 2.7% 3.3% 3.6% 3.9%

Kraft Foods 2.9 2.1 2.2 2.1 18.9 14.1 14.5 13.8 3.2% 3.6% 4.1% 4.2%

Rieber & Son 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 11.5 8.0 7.7 7.1 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.7%

Laurent Perrier SA 4.1 2.9 2.3 2.2 14.5 11.5 9.2 8.8 3.5% 2.5% 3.4% 3.6%Median Peer Group 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.4 12.0 8.6 8.2 7.5 3.3% 3.5% 3.8% 4.0%

EuroStoxx Food & Beverages 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 9.8 6.9 6.6 6.1 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.5%

CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc -49% -72% -69% -66% 14% -26% -37% -33% -100% -100% -100% -100%



19/66



2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Agrana 9.5% 5.3% 8.0% 8.6% 3.2% -0.5% 2.2% 2.8% 7.3% -1.1% 5.2% 6.5%

Ambra 9.8% 4.5% 5.1% 5.5% 5.6% -1.8% 0.7% 1.0% 10.7% -5.0% 0.1% 1.2%

CEDC 10.8% 11.7% 12.5% 12.9% 6.5% 9.0% 9.1% 9.7% 11.8% 14.3% 12.8% 12.9%

Duda 6.2% 6.7% 6.8% 6.4% 3.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 10.9% 7.5% 6.8% 6.4%Graal 10.1% 9.2% 8.4% 8.2% 4.8% 3.2% 2.8% 2.9% 11.1% 6.9% 6.2% 6.3%

Jutrzenka 6.5% 7.8% 9.6% 9.7% 1.9% 2.1% 3.5% 3.5% 4.6% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8%

Pamapol 11.3% 7.5% 9.4% 8.7% 12.4% -0.1% 2.0% 2.0% 28.8% 0.2% 5.4% 5.6%

Podravka 7.5% 8.9% 9.8% 10.0% 0.5% 0.9% 1.5% 1.8% 1.0% 1.6% 2.8% 3.4%

Median CEE 9.8% 7.8% 9.4% 8.7% 4.8% 2.1% 2.2% 2.8% 10.9% 2.6% 5.4% 6.3%

Davide Campari 23.3% 23.0% 22.9% 23.4% 13.1% 13.0% 13.2% 13.8% 14.5% 12.6% 12.2% 12.0%

Remy Cointreau 21.4% 19.5% 20.5% 21.3% 12.0% 11.4% 10.8% 10.6% 10.4% 8.8% 9.3% 9.5%

Finsbury Food Group Plc 6.6% 7.8% 6.3% 6.3% 3.1% 2.4% 2.1% 2.3% 11.7% 14.3% 34.2% 9.1%

Donegal Creameries 8.0% 7.7% 7.6% - 6.3% - - - 8.8% 8.1% 7.7% 8.1%

Nestle 16.6% 17.0% 17.4% 17.6% 9.9% 17.8% 9.7% 9.9% 20.4% 18.4% 19.2% 17.4%

Kraft Foods 15.6% 15.0% 15.2% 15.5% 7.0% 6.6% 6.7% 7.0% 10.6% 10.7% 11.3% 12.4%

Rieber & Son 10.6% 10.4% 10.6% 11.0% 3.6% 3.2% 3.5% 3.8% 9.8% 9.3% 10.1% 10.8%

Laurent Perrier SA 28.1% 25.0% 25.0% 25.1% 13.9% 11.0% 11.0% 11.2% 15.5% 9.6% 9.5% 9.8%Median Peer Group 16.1% 16.0% 16.3% 17.6% 8.4% 11.0% 9.7% 9.9% 11.1% 10.2% 10.7% 10.3%

EuroStoxx Food & Beverages 16.0% 16.2% 15.7% 15.5% 7.7% 6.8% 5.8% 5.2% 14.8% 14.0% 14.2% 14.2%

CEE to Peer, ppt -6.3 -8.3 -6.9 -8.8 -3.7 -8.9 -7.6 -7.2 -0.2 -7.6 -5.3 -4.0

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Agrana 2.3% -43.6% 55.5% 10.3% -6.6% -114% -595% 29.2%

Ambra 11.4% -46.3% 16.8% -8.1% -7.7% n.m. n.m. 1311%

CEDC 17.0% 54.4% 35.7% 15.7% 0.6% 78.3% 18.6% 19.3%

Duda 2.6% 26.6% -11.4% -5.5% -45.3% -36.6% -14.0% -3.0%

Graal 82.0% 17.0% -15.9% 1.3% 19.0% -29.0% -14.0% 4.2%

Jutrzenka -12.2% 55.2% 23.2% 3.3% -51.4% -25.7% 14.8% 4.0%

Pamapol 25.9% -9.8% 21.1% -2.3% 111.9% - - 6.9%

Podravka -22.0% 26.1% 13.6% 7.1% -69.7% 76.0% 73.8% 22.7%

CEE total 6.0% -3.8% 30.0% 10.1% -12.7% -42.3% 79.1% 16.9%

Davide Campari 5.8% -2.2% 4.0% 5.7% 6.9% -4.2% 7.1% 8.0%

Remy Cointreau 2.9% -11.7% 10.3% 7.2% -1.9% -13.8% 6.6% 4.6%

Finsbury Food Group Plc 63.3% 37.3% -8.2% 3.6% 6.1% -6.6% -29.3% 11.0%

Donegal Creameries 46.9% 0.7% -1.1% - 96.9% -2.6% -0.2% -

Nestle 9.0% 17.6% 4.3% 5.5% 13.6% 19.7% 4.9% 8.1%

Kraft Foods -14.8% 17.3% 11.7% 5.1% -15.4% 9.8% 14.7% 8.2%

Rieber & Son -6.4% -13.8% 15.8% 6.4% -28.4% -18.4% 24.9% 13.2%

Laurent Perrier SA 15.2% -26.0% 4.1% 7.3% 13.5% -33.9% 5.3% 8.8%

Peer Group total 1.5% -13.8% 11.6% 3.0% 23.3% 7.4% 4.3% 9.5%

EuroStoxx Food & Beverages 3.3% 11.9% 16.6% 7.8% 12.8% 2.0% 3.3% 12.1%

CEE to Peer, ppt 4.5 10.0 18.5 7.1 -36.0 -49.7 74.8 7.4




20/66



Agrana latest

(EUR mn) 2Q 2007 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 y/y

Sales 484.4 485.3 473.6 495.1 550.4 13.6%

EBITDA 40.6 55.9 51.9 32.9 -7.0 n.a.

EBIT 25.2 30.6 18.1 15.7 -25.9 n.a.

Net profit 18.3 13.3 14.8 8.0 -27.7 n.a.EBITDA margin 8.4% 11.5% 11.0% 6.6%

EBIT margin 5.2% 6.3% 3.8% 3.2%

Net margin 3.8% 2.7% 3.1% -

Ambra latest

(PLN mn) 1Q07/08 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 4Q07/08 1Q08/09 y/y

Sales 94.3 276.6 82.6 93.8 105.0 11.4%

EBITDA -0.1 42.7 -8.8 -9.1 5.3 n.a.

EBIT -3.0 39.8 -11.8 -12.2 2.3 n.a.

Net profit -6.6 21.8 -12.6 -11.3 -1.8 -72.7%

EBITDA margin -0.1% 15.4% -10.7% -9.7% 5.0%

EBIT margin -3.2% 14.4% -14.3% -13.0% 2.2%

Net margin -7.0% 7.9% -15.3% -12.0% -2%

CEDC latest

(USD mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 299.60 393.40 313.60 421.3 452.4 51.0%

EBITDA 30.90 48.30 28.70 50.2 57.1 84.8%

EBIT 28.40 45.60 25.50 42.8 52.8 85.9%

Net profit 17.00 45.30 18.50 46.8 0.7 -95.9%

EBITDA margin 10.3% 12.3% 9.2% 11.9% 12.6%

EBIT margin 9.5% 11.6% 8.1% 10.2% 11.7%

Net margin 5.7% 11.5% 5.9% 11.1% 0.2%

Duda latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/ySales 340.80 368.60 318.30 343.5 382.1 12.1%

EBITDA 18.00 21.20 20.10 24.0 22.5 25.0%

EBIT 10.60 13.00 12.10 16.0 13.8 30.2%

Net profit 7.30 5.20 5.60 8.1 8.7 19.2%

EBITDA margin 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% 7.0% 5.9%

EBIT margin 3.1% 3.5% 3.8% 4.7% 3.6%

Net margin 2.1% 1.4% 1.8% 2.4% 2.3%

Graal latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 84.30 95.40 91.10 87.3 89.1 5.7%

EBITDA 13.00 16.60 8.50 7.1 8.0 -38.5%

EBIT 10.50 13.00 5.10 5.1 4.3 -59.0%Net profit 5.00 8.80 3.10 2.3 1.7 n.m.

EBITDA margin 15.4% 17.4% 9.3% 8.1% 9.0%

EBIT margin 12.5% 13.6% 5.6% 5.8% 4.8%

Net margin 5.9% 9.2% 3.4% 2.6% 1.9%

Jutrzenka latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 122.80 145.90 118.90 118.8 140.9 14.7%

EBITDA 8.10 0.60 9.40 1.1 14.2 75.3%

EBIT 4.20 -4.40 4.30 -4.1 7.5 78.6%

Net profit 2.30 -5.70 1.70 -5.4 4.3 87.0%

EBITDA margin 6.6% 0.4% 7.9% 0.9% 10.1%

EBIT margin 3.4% -3.0% 3.6% -3.5% 5.3%Net margin 1.9% -3.9% 1.4% -4.5% 3.1%

52 weeks

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Agrana

ATX (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Food & Beverage (Rebased)

52 weeks

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Ambra

WIG (Rebased)

DJ EURO STOXX Food & Beverage (Rebased)

52 weeks

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

CEDCWIG (Rebased)


52 weeks

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Duda

WIG (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Food & Beverage (Rebased)

52 weeks

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

GraalWIG (Rebased)


52 weeks

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

JutrzenkaWIG (Rebased)



21/66



Pamapol latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 105.17 103.70 91.00 91.8 105.7 0.5%

EBITDA 12.21 15.80 7.40 3.7 7.5 -38.5%

EBIT 8.13 11.50 2.90 -0.8 2.8 -65.6%

Net profit 5.91 22.20 0.01 -3.7 -1.0 n.a.EBITDA margin 11.6% 15.2% 8.1% 4.0% 7.1%

EBIT margin 7.7% 11.1% 3.2% -0.9% 2.6%

Net margin 5.6% 21.4% 0.0% -4.0% -0.9%

Podravka latest

(HRK mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 941.71 906.41 784.12 924.83 980.63 4.1%

EBITDA 72.20 39.72 71.23 70.39 90.72 25.6%

EBIT 32.06 -0.27 34.13 31.50 51.30 60.0%

Net profit 11.54 -15.36 15.83 7.08 28.31 145.2%

EBITDA margin 7.7% 4.4% 9.1% 7.6% 9.3%

EBIT margin 3.4% 0.0% 4.4% 3.4% 5.2%

Net margin 1.2% -1.7% 2.0% 0.8% 2.9%

52 weeks

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

PamapolWIG (Rebased)


52 weeks

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Podravka

CROBEX (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Food & Beverage (Rebased)


22/66



Healthcare1/23/2009 Rep. Mcap Recommendation

Curr. Current TargetCompany (EURmn) 1M 3M 6M 12M

A&D Pharma EUR 75.0 2.3 3.2 Hold -24.5% -16.7% -2.2% -80.4%

Bioton PLN 138.3 0.20 Under review -2.4% -55.5% -66.5% -82.1%

Egis HUF 327.3 12,170.0 18,800.0 Buy 10.7% 16.2% -32.6% -38.9%

Intercell EUR 1,151.9 25.3 39.5 Buy 17.7% 21.9% -15.7% 12.4%

Krka EUR 1,906.3 53.8 118.5 Buy 16.9% -21.1% -40.9% -52.3%

Richter Gedeon HUF 1,905.5 29,600.0 38,770.0 Buy -2.9% 3.0% -26.6% -28.7%

Sanochemia EUR 25.2 2.5 Under review 2.5% -43.1% -61.2% -68.2%

Zentiva CZK 1,521.5 1,122.0 1,150.0 Hold -2.4% -7.5% -11.2% 27.5%

Teva Pharmaceutical ILS - 29,214 - - - 10.4% 3.2% 12.2% 8.0%

Mylan Inc. USD 2,604 - - - 26.8% 73.9% 1.0% -13.8%

Watson Pharmaceuticals USD 2,066 - - - 12.9% 16.4% 4.2% 10.1%

Stada Arzmeimittel AG EUR 1,086 - - - -0.1% -4.5% -60.4% -56.4%

Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc USD 5,630 - - - 9.9% 10.8% 21.3% 46.3%

Ranbaxy Laboratories INR - 1,251 - - - -6.6% 0.2% -59.0% -53.2%

Recordati EUR 777 - - - -9.2% 0.3% -19.2% -31.9%EuroStoxx Healthcare 116,670 - - - 5.8% 1.1% -13.0% -19.6%


(LC)

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

A&D Pharma n.m. 30.0 11.0 6.6 n.m. 6.1 4.4 3.3 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.3

Bioton 89.8 25.1 12.8 8.6 51.8 9.8 7.6 5.8 2.8 0.6 0.6 0.5

Egis 23.5 5.8 7.6 6.8 12.7 3.8 4.6 4.4 1.7 0.7 0.8 0.7

Intercell 218.5 118.7 100.8 28.2 162.3 95.3 82.2 26.3 4.7 3.7 3.6 3.2

Krka 33.2 11.7 9.7 8.2 20.9 8.5 7.3 6.4 6.6 2.4 2.0 1.6

Richter Gedeon 23.1 11.9 11.3 10.0 14.4 7.8 7.5 6.8 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.3

Sanochemia n.m. 20.3 9.5 3.2 n.m. 5.0 3.8 2.1 1.8 0.4 0.4 0.4

Zentiva 27.4 24.9 17.7 13.8 13.8 12.2 10.2 8.5 3.4 3.4 3.0 2.5

Median CEE 25.5 22.6 11.2 8.4 14.1 8.2 7.4 6.1 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.0

Teva Pharmaceutical 20.2 16.0 14.7 11.8 28.7 17.9 13.7 12.1 2.9 2.4 2.0 1.7

Mylan Inc. 9.3 18.1 10.9 7.8 10.2 8.2 5.7 7.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9Watson Pharmaceuticals 21.1 13.7 12.1 11.5 8.0 8.5 8.1 8.0 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.0

Stada Arzmeimittel AG 8.2 9.0 8.0 7.1 5.3 6.0 5.1 4.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9

Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc 23.5 24.5 15.7 16.4 17.4 23.6 18.8 16.2 5.5 3.6 3.0 2.6

Ranbaxy Laboratories 8.9 711.6 16.3 10.7 6.4 48.8 10.1 7.2 2.3 1.4 1.2 1.1

Recordati 9.0 7.8 7.3 8.5 6.7 6.1 6.0 6.8 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4

Median Peer Group 9.3 16.0 12.1 10.7 8.0 8.5 8.1 7.2 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.1

EuroStoxx Healthcare 14.4 14.8 13.4 12.0 10.0 10.1 9.0 8.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.5

CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc 175% 41% -8% -22% 76% -4% -9% -15% 34% -28% -10% -10%

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

A&D Pharma 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 35.8 5.8 4.9 4.2 0.7% 0.7% 1.8% 3.0%

Bioton 10.9 2.3 2.4 2.1 24.3 8.4 8.1 6.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Egis 1.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 11.9 4.2 3.9 3.4 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0%

Intercell 17.3 18.5 9.9 6.2 272.3 -110.7 71.3 18.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Krka 5.8 2.1 1.8 1.5 19.0 7.1 6.0 5.2 0.7% 2.2% 2.7% 3.3%

Richter Gedeon 3.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 12.8 6.9 6.4 5.5 1.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.9%

Sanochemia 2.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 -48.5 2.6 1.7 0.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Zentiva 3.3 2.7 2.6 2.4 15.5 11.2 9.4 7.8 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3%

Median CEE 3.3 2.0 1.7 1.5 17.2 6.4 6.2 5.4 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.2%

Teva Pharmaceutical 4.2 3.1 2.8 2.4 13.5 11.1 10.7 8.2 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%

Mylan Inc. 3.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 11.6 7.6 6.0 5.6 1.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Watson Pharmaceuticals 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 6.7 5.8 5.0 4.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Stada Arzmeimittel AG 2.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 10.8 7.4 6.1 5.6 3.8% 3.8% 4.4% 5.1%

Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc 4.8 3.1 2.7 2.6 15.4 15.2 11.7 14.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Ranbaxy Laboratories 2.9 1.6 1.2 1.0 21.4 13.8 9.9 5.6 5.0% 3.6% 3.4% 3.9%

Recordati 2.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 8.7 5.2 4.5 4.8 5.8% 6.4% 6.8% 6.7%

Median Peer Group 2.9 1.6 1.2 1.1 11.6 7.6 6.1 5.6 1.4% 1.0% 1.1% 2.5%

EuroStoxx Healthcare 3.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 11.7 8.8 8.0 7.2 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5%

CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc 13% 20% 46% 37% 48% -16% 1% -5% -56% -23% -5% -53%

P/E P/CE P/BV



23/66



2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

A&D Pharma 3.8% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0% -2.0% 0.5% 1.1% 1.6% -3.2% 1.0% 2.7% 4.4%

Bioton 44.6% 27.7% 29.9% 29.9% 9.8% 4.7% 10.9% 14.4% 3.3% 2.3% 4.6% 6.6%

Egis 15.4% 16.7% 17.4% 18.2% 8.3% 14.5% 11.0% 11.8% 8.0% 12.7% 9.4% 10.5%

Intercell 6.4% -16.7% 13.9% 34.4% 9.4% 17.7% 11.7% 26.6% 2.9% 3.4% 3.6% 11.9%Krka 30.7% 30.2% 30.0% 29.8% 17.0% 17.2% 17.7% 18.1% 21.5% 22.1% 22.2% 21.9%

Richter Gedeon 25.2% 25.6% 26.1% 26.3% 15.2% 17.3% 17.4% 17.7% 11.3% 12.9% 13.2% 14.1%

Sanochemia -5.7% 13.8% 15.8% 20.5% -15.0% 3.7% 6.4% 12.5% -7.6% 2.1% 4.4% 12.1%

Zentiva 21.3% 24.1% 27.4% 30.4% 8.7% 8.5% 11.8% 14.3% 12.5% 14.1% 18.0% 20.1%

Median CEE 18.4% 20.4% 21.8% 28.1% 9.1% 11.5% 11.3% 14.3% 5.7% 8.0% 7.0% 12.0%

Teva Pharmaceutical 31.0% 28.0% 25.9% 29.7% 20.7% 20.8% 17.2% 20.1% 14.4% 15.0% 13.4% 14.7%

Mylan Inc. 28.8% 22.9% 24.7% 24.9% 12.8% 4.3% 6.0% 9.0% 9.9% 6.2% 8.9% 11.5%

Watson Pharmaceuticals 21.0% 21.8% 20.7% 20.7% 5.6% 9.2% 9.3% 9.5% 7.7% 11.1% 9.8% 9.0%

Stada Arzmeimittel AG 20.1% 17.4% 17.8% 18.3% 6.7% 6.1% 7.5% 8.0% 14.5% 12.2% 12.6% 13.0%

Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc 30.9% 20.6% 23.1% 17.9% 9.7% 11.3% 14.7% 14.8% 23.3% 14.7% 19.0% 16.0%

Ranbaxy Laboratories 13.5% 11.8% 12.0% 17.2% 11.4% -2.1% 7.0% 9.8% 26.2% 0.2% 7.6% 10.5%

Recordati 25.1% 25.0% 24.7% 23.0% 13.5% 14.4% 14.1% 12.7% 22.1% 22.3% 21.0% 16.8%

Median Peer Group 25.1% 21.8% 23.1% 20.7% 11.4% 9.2% 9.3% 9.8% 14.5% 12.2% 12.6% 13.0%EuroStoxx Healthcare 20.1% 20.5% 21.0% 22.2% 7.7% 10.6% 11.5% 9.7% 13.8% 13.5% 13.5% 13.4%

CEE to Peer, ppt -6.7 -1.4 -1.3 7.3 -2.4 2.3 2.0 4.6 -8.9 -4.2 -5.6 -1.0

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

A&D Pharma -42.9% 50.5% 24.9% 18.1% -147.4% -129.6% 172.1% 67.8%

Bioton 40.7% -13.9% 0.3% 15.9% -71.7% -34.6% 95.4% 50.1%

Egis -29.4% 14.1% 5.9% 8.5% -48.9% 85.1% -23.2% 11.2%

Intercell -123.3% -369.7% -254% 288.2% -127.5% 75.7% 17.7% 257.3%

Krka 21.0% 19.7% 16.9% 15.0% 18.7% 23.2% 20.9% 18.1%

Richter Gedeon -13.0% 7.5% 6.2% 12.1% -31.7% 20.9% 4.9% 13.6%

Sanochemia -132.2% -346.2% 38.4% 100.4% -252.6% -127.6% 112.4% 198.8%

Zentiva -13.0% 40.1% 16.3% 17.7% -34.5% 20.0% 41.0% 28.4%

CEE total -3.7% 17.3% 15.6% 19.1% -34.3% 44.6% 3.0% 20.8%

Teva Pharmaceutical -1.2% 14.3% 31.1% 24.6% -6.7% 26.4% 8.4% 25.0%

Mylan Inc. 42.1% 45.3% 30.9% 6.1% -23.6% -48.9% 65.9% 39.5%

Watson Pharmaceuticals 18.9% 9.9% 6.7% 4.1% 20.0% 53.5% 13.0% 5.8%

Stada Arzmeimittel AG 29.2% -6.3% 9.4% 9.8% 28.9% -9.2% 11.9% 12.4%

Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc - 21.1% 36.5% -24.0% -10.4% -4.4% 56.4% -4.7%

Ranbaxy Laboratories 6.0% -20.4% 17.3% 68.9% 52.7% -98.8% 4264.5% 52.4%

Recordati 9.6% 9.4% 5.4% -10.9% 15.3% 15.7% 6.3% -13.7%

Peer Group total 19.2% 15.4% 26.6% 14.1% 2.1% -1.0% 26.8% 10.3%

EuroStoxx Healthcare 5.8% 7.2% 7.3% 3.5% 12.7% 8.6% 9.8% 11.7%

CEE to Peer, ppt -23.0 1.9 -11.0 5.0 -36.4 45.6 -23.8 10.5




24/66



52 weeks

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

A&D Pharma

BET (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Health Care (Rebased)

52 weeks

0, 10, 2

0, 3

0, 40, 5

0, 6

0, 70, 8

0, 91, 0

1, 11, 2

Bioton

WIG 20 (Rebased)

DJ EURO STOXX Health Care (Rebased)

52 weeks

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

20.000

E gi s B U X ( R eb a se d ) D J E UR O S T OX X H ea l th C a re ( R eb as e d)

52 weeks

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

In tercel l ATX (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Heal th Care (Rebased)

52 weeks

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10 0

11 0

12 0

K r ka S BI ( R eb a se d ) D J E U RO S T OX X H e al t h C a re ( R eb a se d )

52 weeks

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

Richter Gedeon

BUX (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Health Care (Rebased)

A&D Pharma latest

(USD mn) 1H 2007 2H 2007 1H 2008 y/y

Sales 199.1 226.4 254.1 27.6%

EBITDA 16.5 -0.5 10.7 -35.1%

EBIT 13.2 -4.3 6.7 -48.9%

Net profit 11.9 -20.3 1.0 -92.0%EBITDA margin 8.3% -0.2% 4.2%

EBIT margin 6.6% -1.9% 2.7%

Net margin 6.0% -9.0% 0.4%

Bioton latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 89.4 69.8 90.7 75.0 67.4 -24.6%

EBITDA 25.6 12.8 44.7 -9.9 1.5 -94.3%

EBIT 21.3 7.6 38.8 -15.1 -4.4 n.a.

Net profit 10.3 -42.9 4.7 -23.0 -18.9 n.a.

EBITDA margin 28.7% 18.3% 49.3% -13.2% 2.2%

EBIT margin 23.8% 10.9% 42.8% -20.2% -6.5%

Net margin 11.5% -61.5% 5.2% -30.7% -28.0%

Egis latest

(HUF mn) 4Q06/07 1Q07/08 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 4Q07/08 y/y

Sales 23,067 24,527 24,206 23,000 24,275 5.2%

EBITDA 3,256 4,221 3,863 3,673 4,262 30.9%

EBIT 1,732 2,585 2,280 2,045 1,565 -9.6%

Net profit 2,483 2,792 3,053 2,231 5,883 136.9%

EBITDA margin 14.1% 17.2% 16.0% 16.0% 17.6%

EBIT margin 7.5% 10.5% 9.4% 8.9% 6.4%

Net margin 10.8% 11.4% 12.6% 9.7% 24.2%

Intercell latest

(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Revenues 7.4 40.8 8.6 9.0 7.6 3.6%

EBITDA -6.3 25.2 -4.7 -5.7 -7.9 25.6%

EBIT -6.8 24.7 -5.2 -6.2 -8.6 27.9%

Net profit -6.5 27.1 -4.6 -4.0 -5.1 -21.1%

EBITDA margin -85% 62% -54% -63% -103%

EBIT margin -92% 60% -60% -69% -113%

Net margin -88% 66% -54% -45% -67%

Krka latest

(EUR mn) 3Q2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 178.4 210.0 244.4 224.9 218.7 22.6%

EBITDA 59.2 62.4 78.8 62.9 61.0 3.1%

EBIT 45.2 46.8 62.7 45.7 43.3 -4.1%

Net profit 29.5 35.0 44.1 34.2 32.5 10.1%

EBITDA margin 33.2% 29.7% 32.3% 28.0% 27.9% -15.9%

EBIT margin 25.3% 22.3% 25.7% 20.3% 19.8%

Net margin 16.6% 16.7% 18.0% 15.2% 14.9%

Richter Gedeon latest

(HUF mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 56,519 56,320 57,026 57,808 56,534 0.0%

EBITDA 14,598 13,160 15,423 14,124 13,433 -8.0%

EBIT 9,737 7,742 10,096 9,182 8,512 -12.6%

Net profit 8,064 6,731 10,221 2,913 14,289 77.2%

EBITDA margin 25.8% 23.4% 27.0% 24.4% 23.8%

EBIT margin 17.2% 13.7% 17.7% 15.9% 15.1%

Net margin 14.3% 12.0% 17.9% 5.0% 25.3%


25/66



52 weeks

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

SanochemiaATX (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Health Care (Rebased)

52 weeks

40 0

50 0

60 0

70 0

80 0

90 0

1.000

1.100

1.200

Zentiva PX (Rebased) DJ EURO STOXX Health Care (Rebased)

Sanochemia latest

(EUR mn) 3Q06/07 4Q06/07 1Q07/08 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 y/y

Sales 6.8 5.4 6.3 6.2 8.0 19.0%

EBITDA 0.1 -4.9 -0.4 -0.2 1.3 1752.1%

EBIT -0.8 -5.9 -1.6 -1.4 0.1 n.a.

Net profit -0.2 -6.5 -2.4 -2.2 0.9 n.a.EBITDA margin 1.1% -90.2% -6.6% -3.9% 16.4%

EBIT margin -12.4% -109% -25.3% -23% 1.3%

Net margin -3.5% -120% -37.7% -35% 11.8%

Zentiva latest

(CZK mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 4,330.7 5,543.0 4,379.0 4,611.3 4,106.6 -5.2%

EBITDA 697.6 1,263.9 1,146.7 1,084.5 1,135.9 62.8%

EBIT 350.0 709.6 809.6 554.1 803.7 129.6%

Net profit 231.5 349.7 469.7 363.3 258.9 11.9%

EBITDA margin 16.1% 22.8% 26.2% 23.5% 27.7%

EBIT margin 8.1% 12.8% 18.5% 12.0% 19.6%

Net margin 5.3% 6.3% 10.7% 7.9% 6.3%


26/66



Industrial Goods & Services1/23/2009 Rep. Mcap Recommendation

Curr. Current TargetCompany (EURmn) 1M 3M 6M 12MA-Tec EUR 171 6.5 11.6 Hold -6.3% -32.6% -57.1% -44.6%Andritz EUR 1,109 21.5 40.0 Buy 22.6% 14.4% -47.5% -33.3%Apator PLN 75 9.5 13.8 Buy -2.0% -4.1% -44.8% -60.6%Atlantska plovidba HRK 136 789.0 Under review 13.9% -17.7% -68.2% -71.6%CAToil EUR 94 1.9 2.3 Hold 6.1% -5.0% -76.2% -87.0%CWT EUR 41 2.1 1.2 Sell 50.7% -26.0% -75.8% -76.9%Palfinger EUR 305 8.6 12.7 Hold -7.5% -29.3% -53.4% -57.1%Pankl Racing EUR 49 12.7 17.6 Hold -10.6% -25.3% -58.4% -55.4%Rafako PLN 54 3.4 u.r. Under review 11.3% -31.6% -58.2% -65.9%SBO EUR 315 19.7 28.5 Hold -0.6% -30.6% -68.0% -54.9%Turbomecanica RON 6 0.071 0.080 Reduce -8.6% -46.7% -79.0% -89.1%Winterthur EUR 97 16.6 42.3 Accumulate -19.7% -40.9% -55.1% -52.1%Zumtobel EUR 250 5.6 8.0 Buy 7.9% -33.4% -56.5% -68.9%

EuroStoxx Industrial Goods

& Services - 187,850 - - - -10.0% -4.4% -42.9% -44.2%


(LC)

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

A-Tec 14.9 5.1 3.3 2.4 3.5 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.5 0.4 0.4 0.3Andritz 16.1 7.3 7.9 7.8 10.4 4.4 5.5 5.4 4.6 2.0 1.7 1.5Apator 25.7 7.1 8.2 8.5 19.0 5.0 5.6 5.9 5.5 1.7 1.7 1.6Atlantska plovidba 18.8 1.7 1.6 2.3 13.5 1.5 1.3 1.7 5.1 0.8 0.6 0.5CAToil 32.5 6.6 11.1 5.3 19.4 2.5 3.0 2.4 3.1 0.4 0.4 0.3CWT 101.1 n.m. 274.6 18.7 39.4 n.m. 8.2 6.1 3.7 0.9 0.8 0.8Palfinger 12.2 5.2 9.6 8.0 9.5 3.8 5.7 5.2 3.1 0.9 0.9 0.8Pankl Racing 18.9 8.4 12.8 11.9 9.2 3.5 4.0 4.0 2.3 0.7 0.7 0.7Rafako 54.9 9.6 7.8 6.1 n.m. 4.5 5.2 5.3 2.2 0.6 0.6 0.5SBO 20.4 5.3 6.0 8.5 15.3 3.8 4.2 5.2 5.1 1.3 1.2 1.1Turbomecanica 27.4 n.m. 10.4 5.3 13.2 n.m. 3.7 3.0 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Winterthur 10.9 5.3 5.2 4.5 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.0 0.7 0.6 0.6Zumtobel 9.4 4.4 27.5 18.3 8.9 2.0 5.3 4.6 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.5Median CEE 18.9 5.3 8.2 7.8 10.4 3.2 4.2 4.6 3.1 0.7 0.6 0.6

EuroStoxx Industrial

Goods & Services 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.8 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1

CEE to Peer, Prem/Dis 131% -33% 5% -1% 109% -37% -20% -10% 103% -46% -49% -50%

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

A-Tec 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 7.6 3.7 2.8 2.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Andritz 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 8.7 3.0 3.4 3.0 2.4% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6%Apator 2.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 15.9 4.9 5.1 5.3 2.0% 8.6% 7.9% 8.8%Atlantska plovidba 4.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 11.3 2.4 1.9 2.2 1.4% 14.4% 15.9% 10.7%CAToil 3.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 14.7 2.3 2.1 1.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%CWT 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 29.3 -24.8 11.7 9.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Palfinger 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 8.8 4.5 6.3 5.4 2.7% 6.4% 3.7% 4.4%Pankl Racing 1.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 9.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 1.6% 3.6% 2.3% 2.5%Rafako 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 22.0 4.6 4.0 3.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%SBO 3.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 11.4 3.5 3.5 4.0 1.6% 6.0% 5.3% 3.8%Turbomecanica 2.7 1.2 1.0 1.0 12.9 -15.6 7.0 6.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Winterthur 2.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 13.5 4.1 3.6 3.0 1.6% 3.8% 3.9% 4.4%Zumtobel 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 6.6 3.5 6.1 5.5 3.6% 8.9% 1.8% 2.7%Median CEE 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 11.4 3.5 4.0 4.0 1.6 3.8 2.3 2.7


Goods & Services 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 8.2 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.7% 5.2% 5.0% 4.9%

CEE to Peer, Prem/Dis 51% -4% 19% 14% 39% -31% -14% -13% -66% -27% -53% -45%

P/E P/CE P/BV



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2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

A-Tec 7.0% 4.3% 4.8% 5.5% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 2.3% 11.7% 8.3% 11.6% 14.4%Andritz 7.4% 7.8% 7.3% 7.2% 4.1% 4.5% 4.3% 4.3% 30.5% 29.3% 23.1% 20.8%Apator 17.9% 17.8% 18.4% 17.9% 11.1% 10.8% 10.7% 10.5% 23.1% 24.6% 20.9% 19.4%Atlantska plovidba 38.4% 52.3% 54.6% 43.2% 19.8% 37.0% 38.1% 25.2% 29.3% 54.8% 44.0% 23.7%CAToil 22.3% 18.6% 18.3% 19.6% 10.2% 5.2% 4.1% 6.8% 10.0% 5.9% 3.3% 6.6%CWT 3.5% -1.6% 3.6% 4.3% 0.6% -5.0% 0.1% 0.8% 4.4% -26.9% 0.3% 4.4%Palfinger 16.3% 13.2% 10.3% 11.1% 11.0% 7.8% 4.8% 5.6% 28.0% 19.2% 9.6% 10.9%Pankl Racing 17.3% 15.9% 14.8% 14.3% 8.3% 6.1% 4.0% 4.3% 12.9% 8.9% 5.6% 5.8%Rafako 3.1% 3.8% 4.8% 5.4% 1.1% 1.8% 2.6% 3.1% 4.1% 6.0% 7.7% 9.4%SBO 28.7% 29.3% 27.6% 24.2% 15.2% 15.3% 13.8% 11.3% 26.4% 27.4% 20.6% 13.3%Turbomecanica 20.6% -7.9% 14.1% 15.4% 8.2% -25.4% 3.1% 6.1% 8.0% -15.7% 2.6% 5.1%Winterthur 15.7% 18.8% 18.6% 18.6% 10.8% 8.1% 8.1% 8.8% 19.3% 14.0% 12.8% 13.2%Zumtobel 12.5% 10.7% 6.9% 7.5% 7.3% 4.6% 0.8% 1.3% 19.5% 10.8% 1.7% 2.6%Median CEE 16.3 13.2 14.1 14.3% 8.3% 5.2 4.1 5.6 19.3% 10.8% 9.6 10.9


Goods & Services 13.4% 13.5% 12.8% 12.7% 6.1% 7.2% 5.6% 5.6% 18.9% 18.7% 14.5% 13.7%

CEE to Peer, ppt 2.9 -0.3 1.3 1.6 2.2 -1.9 -1.5 0.0 0.4 -7.8 -4.9 -2.8

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

A-Tec 32.8% -17% 12.6% 16.1% -89.8% -16% 54.0% 40.0%Andritz 24.8% 14.1% -6.9% 0.9% 40.6% 14.1% -7.7% 1.9%Apator 3.4% 23.9% -9.8% -5.3% -5.0% 16.5% -13.3% -4.0%Atlantska plovidba 95.8% 74.7% 12.6% -20% 148.7% 140% 10.9% -33%CAToil 9.7% 1.3% -25.3% 34.7% -1.5% -37% -40.2% 107.9%CWT 2.1% -148.9% -299.5% 26.4% 9.5% -745.3% -101.0% 1370.9%Palfinger 25.1% -9.4% -31.2% 10.3% - -21% -45.9% 19.6%Pankl Racing 101.3% -2.7% -6.8% -4.3% -1481% -25% -34.4% 7.8%Rafako 16.3% 32.8% 8.7% 17.9% -70.1% 42.4% 23.1% 28.9%SBO 45.5% 24% -7.9% -23.4% 38.3% 23% -11.8% -28.6%Turbomecanica -6.8% -120% -312.2% 7.1% -47.3% -265% -114.3% 95.1%Winterthur 55.1% 71.3% 1.1% 6.1% 70.5% -18% 2.1% 14.8%Zumtobel 2.7% -20% -42.8% 4.8% -10.8% -39% -84.1% 50.2%

CEE total 26.0% 3.8% -7.9% 0.8% 19.7% 75.9% 6.6% -26.2%


Goods & Services 16.8% -1.9% 2.4% 1.1% 26.3% 9.6% -12.6% -4.4%

CEE to Peer, ppt 9.2 5.8 -10.3 -0.3 -6.5 66.4 19.1 -21.7




28/66



A-TEC latest

(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 622.7 771.7 781.4 841.0 767.0 23.2%

EBITDA 39.6 58.8 51.7 40.3 21.4 -46.0%

EBIT 28.9 45.2 39.2 27.2 8.9 -69.2%

Net profit 5.3 -13.8 25.0 21.2 -9.1 n.a.EBITDA margin 6.4% 7.6% 6.6% 4.8% 2.8%

EBIT margin 4.6% 5.9% 5.0% 3.2% 1.2%

Net margin 0.9% -1.8% 3.2% 2.5% -1.2%

Andritz latest

(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 763 983 751 899 889 16.5%

EBITDA 61.2 73.2 55.4 66.5 68.4 11.8%

EBIT 50.2 58 42.8 56 52.7 5.0%

Net profit 35 36.1 30.5 39.6 35.6 1.7%

EBITDA margin 8.0% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.7%

EBIT margin 6.6% 5.9% 5.7% 6.2% 5.9%

Net margin 4.6% 3.7% 4.1% 4.4% 4.0%

Apator latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 85.94 81.86 63.00 90.50 103.00 19.9%

EBITDA 16.31 12.83 8.40 17.80 18.20 11.6%

EBIT 13.12 9.55 5.20 14.30 17.10 30.4%

Net profit 10.84 7.63 -12.60 10.50 11.70 8.0%

EBITDA margin 19.0% 15.7% 13.3% 19.7% 17.7%

EBIT margin 15.3% 11.7% 8.3% 15.8% 16.6%

Net margin 12.6% 9.3% -20.0% 11.6% 11.4%

Atlanska plovidba latest

(HRK mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 405.58 339.62 473.73 416.67 682.26 68.2%

EBITDA 157.53 128.39 319.86 184.18 369.87 134.8%

EBIT 123.08 94.60 286.11 152.57 331.49 169.3%

Net profit 65.44 73.38 258.05 137.51 324.02 395.2%

EBITDA margin 38.8% 37.8% 67.5% 44.2% 54.2%

EBIT margin 30.3% 27.9% 60.4% 36.6% 48.6%

Net margin 16.1% 21.6% 54.5% 33.0% 47.5%

C.A.T.oil latest

(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 61.30 58.50 65.90 73.50 72.60 18.4%

EBITDA 15.60 7.00 7.30 17.30 16.80 7.7%

EBIT 12.40 2.80 2.20 11.60 10.70 -13.7%

Net profit 6.70 0.10 0.40 6.30 5.70 -14.9%

EBITDA margin 25.4% 12.0% 11.1% 23.5% 23.1%

EBIT margin 20.2% 4.8% 3.3% 15.8% 14.7%

Net margin 10.9% 0.2% 0.6% 8.6% 7.9%

CWT latest

(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 66.60 79.10 69.00 54.80 65.10 -2.3%

EBITDA 2.90 1.20 5.70 3.00 -12.00 n.a.

EBIT 1.70 0.30 4.20 -0.70 -13.40 n.a.

Net profit 0.50 -0.80 2.30 -0.90 -15.50 n.a.

EBITDA margin 4.4% 1.5% 8.3% 5.5% -18.4%

EBIT margin 2.6% 0.4% 6.1% -1.3% -20.6%

Net margin 0.8% -1.0% 3.3% -1.6% -23.8%

52 weeks

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

A -T e cATX (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Indust r i a l Goods & Serv i ces (Rebased)

52 weeks

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Andritz

ATX (Rebased)

DJ EURO STOXX Industrial Goods & Services (Rebased)

52 weeks

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

ApatorWIG (Rebased)


52 weeks

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

CAToil

Prime All Share (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Industrial Goods & Services (Rebased)

52 weeks

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

CW T

ATX (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Industrial Goods & Services (Rebased)

52 weeks

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

Atlantska plovidbaC R O B E X (R e b a s e d )DJ STOXX Indust r i a l Goods & Serv i ces (Rebased)


29/66



Palfinger latest

(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 164.00 191.00 208.00 214.51 175.00 6.7%

EBITDA 28.30 29.00 34.30 34.91 21.10 -25.4%

EBIT 22.30 26.30 29.60 29.98 16.10 -27.8%

Net profit 15.50 19.40 22.30 20.38 9.00 -41.9%EBITDA margin 17.3% 15.2% 16.5% 16.3% 12.1%

EBIT margin 13.6% 13.8% 14.2% 14.0% 9.2%

Net margin 9.5% 10.2% 10.7% 9.5% 5.1%

Pankl Racing Systems latest

(EUR mn) 4Q06/07 1Q07/08 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 Q07/08p y/y

Sales 22.00 25.50 30.80 24.60 25.20 14.5%

EBITDA n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

EBIT 2.20 1.70 4.30 1.34 1.40 -36.4%

Net profit 2.00 1.10 2.60 0.95 n.a. n.a.

EBITDA margin n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

EBIT margin 10.0% 6.7% 14.0% 5.4% 5.6%

Net margin 9.1% 4.3% 8.4% 3.9% n.a.

Rafako latest

(PLN mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 294.93 325.99 274.40 301.90 294.60 -0.1%

EBITDA 8.12 15.64 10.00 16.10 8.30 2.2%

EBIT 4.90 11.77 6.60 12.20 4.40 -10.1%

Net profit 3.66 4.40 29.80 4.10 4.60 25.9%

EBITDA margin 2.8% 4.8% 3.6% 5.3% 2.8%

EBIT margin 1.7% 3.6% 2.4% 4.0% 1.5%

Net margin 1.2% 1.3% 10.9% 1.4% 1.6%

Schoeller Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment latest

(EUR mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/ySales 82.80 83.30 88.63 96.89 95.80 15.7%

EBITDA n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

EBIT 19.70 21.10 20.16 21.78 22.30 13.2%

Net profit 13.20 12.30 13.28 14.26 14.90 12.9%

EBITDA margin n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

EBIT margin 23.8% 25.3% 22.7% 22.5% 23.3%

Net margin 15.9% 14.8% 15.0% 14.7% 15.6%

Turbomecanica latest

(RON mn) 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 y/y

Sales 25.10 25.21 8.54 14.40 10.42 -58.5%

EBITDA 9.97 -1.18 -3.37 -1.68 -7.28 n.a.

EBIT 8.32 -2.20 -4.94 -3.25 -8.85 n.a.

Net profit 6.69 -3.26 -5.97 -4.18 -10.03 n.a.

EBITDA margin 39.7% -4.7% -39.5% -11.7% -69.8%

EBIT margin 33.1% -8.7% -57.9% -22.6% -84.9%

Net margin 26.6% -12.9% -69.9% -29.1% -96.2%

Winterthur latest

(EUR mn) HY1 06 HY2 06 HY1 07 HY2 07 HY1 08 y/y

Sales 42.87 43.54 49.20 108.70 113.83 165.6%

EBITDA 7.74 8.30 9.60 20.20 21.28 175.1%

EBIT 5.94 6.50 7.80 9.40 15.89 167.7%

Net profit 4.19 4.70 5.40 11.70 10.22 143.9%

EBITDA margin 18.0% 19.1% 19.5% 18.6% 18.7%

EBIT margin 13.8% 14.9% 15.9% 8.6% 14.0%

Net margin 9.8% 10.8% 11.0% 10.8% 9.0%

52 weeks

5

10

15

20

25

30

PalfingerATX (Rebased)


52 weeks

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Pankl Racing


52 weeks

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Rafako

WIG (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Industrial Goods & Services (Rebased)

52 weeks

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

SB O


52 weeks

0, 0

0, 1

0, 2

0, 30, 4

0, 5

0, 6

0, 7

Turbomecanica

BET (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Industrial Goods & Services (Rebased)

52 weeks

2025

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Winterthur

SMI (Rebased)DJ EURO STOXX Industrial Goods & Services (Rebased)


30/66



Zumtobel latest

(EUR mn) 1Q07/08 2Q07/08 3Q07/08 4Q07/08 1Q08/09 y/y

Sales 323.06 343.04 299.98 316.26 316.67 -2.0%

EBITDA 42.75 51.47 30.92 35.99 37.30 -12.7%

EBIT 32.68 42.00 21.27 25.91 27.00 -17.4%

Net profit 24.95 29.80 13.57 24.67 14.27 -42.8%EBITDA margin 13.2% 15.0% 10.3% 11.4% 11.8%

EBIT margin 10.1% 12.2% 7.1% 8.2% 8.5%

Net margin 7.7% 8.7% 4.5% 7.8% 4.5%

52 weeks

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Zumtobel



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Insurance

1/23/2009 Rep. Mcap RecommendationCurr. Current Target


Uniqa EUR 1,979 16.5 14.9 Reduce -8.6% 9.8% -6.9% -9.2%Vienna Insurance Group EUR 2,615 20.4 44.0 Buy -14.1% 7.5% -53.2% -58.1%

Allianz SE EUR 27,473 - - - -17.2% 0.2% -44.4% -50.1%

AXA SA EUR 23,821 - - - -23.9% -19.5% -39.7% -51.4%

Assicurazioni Generali SpA EUR 22,393 - - - -17.1% -19.3% -29.7% -45.0%

Mapfre SA EUR 5,682 - - - -15.2% -8.2% -33.9% -22.8%

Sampo Oyj EUR 6,658 - - - -7.5% -15.3% -25.9% -31.9%

EuroStoxx Insurance 147,458 - - - -17.2% -15.4% -46.2% -47.4%


(LC)

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Uniqa 10.1 18.7 11.7 7.8 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.1 20.1% 7.8% 12.2% 15.9%

Vienna Insurance Group 18.5 6.3 6.2 5.9 2.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 13.7% 12.8% 10.8% 10.7%

Median CEE 14.3 12.5 8.9 6.8 2.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 16.9% 10.3% 11.5% 13.3%

Allianz SE 3.4 18.9 5.4 4.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 16.9% 3.9% 12.3% 13.3%

AXA SA 4.1 6.4 5.5 4.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 12.5% 9.7% 10.4% 11.6%

Assicurazioni Generali

SpA 7.5 10.1 8.7 7.9 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 19.2% 16.7% 17.6% 18.3%

Mapfre SA 6.4 5.9 5.8 5.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 16.9% 17.6% 16.6% 16.3%

Sampo Oyj 9.6 10.1 8.5 8.1 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 9.2% 11.0% 12.4% 12.5%

Median Peer Group 6.4 10.1 5.8 5.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 16.9% 11.0% 12.4% 13.3%

EuroStoxx Insurance 5.7 8.0 6.2 5.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 14.5% 9.7% 10.6% 12.5%

CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc 122% 23% 54% 27% 146% 7% 3% 0% 0.3% -6.5% -6.9% 0.4%

2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Uniqa 1.4% 2.4% 1.8% 2.5% 7.5% 3.0% 4.8% 7.0% 5.5% 2.1% 3.3% 4.7%

Vienna Insurance Group 1 .5% 2.0% 5.4% 6 .4% 6.3% 6.7% 6.0% 5.6% 4.5% 4.8% 4.5% 4 .3%Median CEE 1.5% 2.2% 3.6% 4.4% 6.9% 4.8% 5.4% 6.3% 5.0% 3.5% 3.9% 4.5%

Allianz SE 9.1% 6.0% 7.4% 8.4% 11.3% 6.6% 7.9% 8.8% 7.8% 1.4% 5.4% 6.4%

AXA SA 10.5% 6.6% 8.2% 9.6% 8.6% 6.3% 7.0% 7.2% 6.1% 2.9% 4.5% 5.1%

Assicurazioni Generali Sp 5.7% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 7.3% 5.5% 6.3% 6.5% 4.5% 3.2% 3.7% 4.0%

Mapfre SA 6.3% 6.8% 6.8% 7.2% 12.9% 10.6% 10.7% 10.6% 6.9% 6.8% 6.7% 7.0%

Sampo Oyj 10.1% 8.9% 10.1% 10.1% 25.7% 21.8% 24.6% 24.8% 94.1% 17.2% 19.5% 19.4%

Median Peer Group 11.3% 6.6% 7.9% 8.8% 6.9% 3.2% 5.4% 6.4% 9.9% -32.7% 16.5% 9.5%

EuroStoxx Insurance 10.7% 6.3% 8.3% 9.1% 7.1% 3.4% 5.0% 5.7% 6.0% -42% 29.2% 10.5%

CEE to Peer, Prem/Disc -87% -67% -54% -49% 0% 51% 0% -2% -50% -111% -76% -53%

P/E P/BV ROE

Dividend yield EBT margin Net margin


32/66



2007 2008e 2009e 2010e 2007 2008e 2009e 2010e

Uniqa 7.0% 4.3% 4.8% 5.5% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 2.3%

Vienna Insurance Group 7.4% 7.8% 7.3% 7.2% 4.1% 4.5% 4.3% 4.3%

Median CEE 16.3% 13.2% 14.1% 14.3% 8.3% 5.2% 4.1% 5.6%

Allianz SE 12.1% -46% 21.1% 12.7% 6.7% -82% 248.0% 21.2%AXA SA 7.0% -29% 15.7% 8.4% 9.6% -35% 16.2% 19.2%

Assicurazioni Generali Sp 20.3% -21% 15.1% 8.9% 12.2% -26% 16.1% 10.1%

Mapfre SA 18.1% 7.7% 5.0% 3.7% 19.6% 8.9% 2.3% 7.7%

Sampo Oyj -28.0% -13% 15.8% 4.1% -28.9% -4.9% 19.7% 5.0%

Total Peer Group 9.9% -33% 16.5% 9.5% 5.0% -67% 108.1% 18.1%

EuroStoxx Insurance 6.0% -42% 29.2% 10.5% 7.7% -55% 63.3% 13.2%

CEE to Peer, ppt 10.3 55.7 -15.1 3.8 0.6 59.8 -59.1 -7.5

2005 2006 2007 2007* 2005 2006 2007 2007* 2005 2006 2007 2007*

Uniqa 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.8 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.2

Vienna Insurance Group 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.6 2.1 2.0 2.0 0.9

Median CEE 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.0

Allianz SE (Life) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 3.4 3.4 3.0 1.3 5.9 7.5 7.1 2.9AXA SA (Group) 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 2.2 1.8 1.7 0.7 5.2 4.8 4.8 2.0

Generali (Group) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 0.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Mapfre SA (Life) 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 2.5 2.6 3.5 2.9 7.0 7.8 11.1 9.2

Sampo Oyj (Life) 1.8 2.4 2.2 1

2009-01-26 cee valuation monitor

Documents