2009 05 electric vehicles in apac – fad or reality frost & sullivan
TRANSCRIPT
Strategic Analysis of APAC Passenger Electric Vehicles Market: Fad or Reality?
Vijayendra Rao, Industry Manager
Automotive & Transportation
27th May 2009
© 2009 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost &
Sullivan.
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Focus Points
� Challenges and Solutions for EV Implementation
� Current Electric Vehicle Market Structure
� Product and Technology Roadmap
� Scenario Analysis for Electric Vehicles in APAC
� Market Breakdown By OEM and Type of Electric Vehicle
� Infrastructure and Business Model
� Opportunities in EV Market
� EV Customer Profile
� Conclusions and Recommendations
� Existing and Planned Powertrain Topics
� Q&A
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Challenges and Likely Solutions for EV Implementation – Infrastructure, Battery Costs, Standardisation are key challenges for EV implementation
Lack of infrastructure to introduce electric vehicles
High costs of batteries and Electric Vehicles
Battery technology is not advanced enough to promote EVswith higher range and top speed
EV Technology is not proven and consumers are wary of buying Electric Vehicles
Price of oil at present is hovering around 50$/barrel that is likely to act as barrier for EV commercialisation
Global economic crisis is likely to put some of EV projects in the back burner
Mass commercialisation, Standardisation and Leasing model is likely to solve this issue
OEMs, Governments are running test fleets to showcase consumers that EV technology is proven for longer viability
EV Technology is a medium-long term strategy rather than short term. In the coming years, Oil prices are likely to increase to up to 100-150$/barrel
Better Place has taken initiatives to set up charging, swapping stations in Australia, Japan and likely to penetrate other APAC markets.
Most OEMs and suppliers have realised that EVs are likely to be a future viable option and are not shunning any projects due to the crisis.
OEMs and Battery suppliers are working extensively to improve the range and top speed of EVs. BYD claims their EV e6 has range of 250 miles.
Electric Vehicle Market: Challenges and Solutions (APAC), 2008
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Current Electric Vehicle Market Structure – Conglomeration of OEMs, Electric Utilities, Government, Battery Manufacturers required for increased electric vehicle penetration
Could work to improve charging time and safety
Infrastruct
ure
supplier
Key Responsibility:
Development of Charging Infrastructure
Key Responsibility:
Promotion of EV use
UtilitiesOthers: e.g. Project
Better PlaceOEMs
Battery Manufacturers
GovernmentCharging Station Manufacturers
Integrators to create partnerships with Utilities, OEMs
and Government
Subsidies for
EV purchase
and
investment in
R&D to
reduce
emissions
Lower fuel
dependency by
expanding the
use of
renewable
energy sourcesSupplies
infrastructure to
distribute their
energy
Cooperation to simultaneously promote EV use and electricity as a fuel
Development of
performing
batteries
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Product and Technology Roadmap – OEMs and Suppliers are working towards increased driving range and lower charging times going forward
Driving Distance/charge-up to 60 kms
Charge Time – 6 to 8 hrs
Slow charging - onboard
Infr
astr
uctu
reP
erf
orm
an
ce
So
urce:
Fro
st
& S
ulliv
an
Up to 130 kms
Battery Capacity – up to 16kWh
Motor Power- Up to 70 kW
2005 2010 2015
Fast charging – mostly off board
Battery Swapping
200 + kms
< 1 hour < 30 minutes
Up to 50 kWh 50 kWh +
70 kW – 140 kW
Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle
Pro
du
cts
City Electric Vehicle
Range extended Electric Vehicle
6
0
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Conservative Frost & Sullivan Optimistic
Scenario Analysis – Mass commercialisation of electric vehicles is likely to happen during 2012-2013
Volumes doubling due to early market entrants
Volumes by Small OEMs- Identical in all 3 scenarios
So
urc
e: F
rost &
Su
lliva
n
Un
it S
hip
me
nts
(T
ho
us
an
ds
)
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Japan and China to be the biggest markets for Electric Vehicles in APAC
NEV Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle
CEV City Electric Vehicles
eREV/PHEV Extended Range/ Plug in Hybrid Electric VehiclesSource: Frost & Sullivan
20082015
650
~170K
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Japan China India Korea Australia Others
NEVs CEVs PHEVs
75%
21%
4%
Others include Malaysia, Singapore
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Infrastructure and Leasing Models in different APAC Regions – Conventional business model is likely to be successful in APAC except Australia
Country Infrastructure Business Model
With Better Place entering the Australian market and working closely with utility
companies and government, Australia is well positioned to provide infrastructure
to electric and plug-in hybrids in the coming years.
OEMs/ Distributors, Battery
Leasing, Battery+Car Leasing
OEMs and Government is working on pilot projects to provide infrastructure to
electric and plug-in hybrids. Better place is also setting up swapping stations for
long distance driving.
OEMs/Distributors, Battery
Swapping
There is no initiative either from government or any external agencies to set up
recharging stations in India. However, Hero Group (2-wheeler manufacturer) has
plans to set up recharging stations in India.
OEMs/ Distributors, Battery
Leasing
China has a great potential in terms of electric vehicles mainly due to availability
of raw materials, advanced motor technologies, competitive prices. However
there is no major initiative to set up recharging stations in China. There is a need
for government initiatives to drive the growth of EV Market in China.
OEMs/Distributors
South Korea is predominantly likely to adopt hybrid vehicles rather than electric
vehicles mainly due to the lack to infrastructure and no major initiative to set up
charging stations in South Korea.
OEMs/Distributors
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Electric Vehicle market to create opportunities and attractiveness for industries like telematics, mobile phones, fleet businesses
MediumLow High
Low
Medium
HighUtilities
Effort required to develop EV business
Po
ten
tial to
ge
ne
rate
re
ve
nu
e
Telematics
Coach Builders
Marketing
Leasing Businesses
Financial
Mobile Phone
Fleet Businesses
Telematics
Swap Stations
Service/ Dealership
Recycling
Insurance
: Size of the bubble represents the impact on EV market
Potential for businesses to enter
EV market with relatively low
investment; strategise to partner
with OEMs
New business opportunities for
Utilities and Innovative financial-
leasing firms- To be resilient
before it makes profits
Innovative model but due to
demographics it requires good EV
penetration and customer
utilization- to have high impact if
successful
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Battery Rejuvenation
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OWNERSHIP & MAIN USAGE• Driving the vehicle to work is his main priority
• Shopping during weekends.
FEEDBACK ON LEASING BATTERIES• Prefer to lease battery than source it directly
from manufacturer.
• Efforts to dispose and effect on environment key reasons
DEMOGRAPHICS• Male/female falling under the age group of 26-45
yrs
• Has a university degree
• Earning between $50K - $100K.
• Resides in Urban Area (Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney)
• Flat /semi-detached house residence
SUGGESTIONS ON EV IMPROVEMENT• Reliability and after-sales service
• Latest battery to aid in greater distance travelled
• Improved and increased access to charging stations
• Improved interior designs for greater experience
• Navigation tools to improve access to P-O- I*NEEDS
• Reliability, price and fuel economy were the most important issues considered while purchasing EV
• Improved charging capability, provision of fast charger kits and maintenance free motors were features that consumers would consider to boost chances of EV purchase
Male/Female (26-45 yrs)
MOTIVATING FACTORS• Contribution to environment
• Reduced fuel cost
• Savings on tax and other Govt subsidies
• Free from congestion charging
• Compact and ease in parking
EV Customer Profile – Private
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Strategic Conclusions and Recommendations – Factors such as Government support, technology standardisation and infrastructure are likely to make electric vehicles a long viable solution
Recommendations
Technology standardisation is very critical to mass market EV at a faster pace
Global economic downturn should not hamper OEMs market strategy in terms of EVs as EV is termed as medium-long term sustainable solution
OEMs, Suppliers, Utility Companies have to work closely to promote Electric Vehicles
OEMs have to push local governments for incentives, tax cuts to promote Electric Vehicles
Target Gen Y Customers as they are open to ideas in terms of battery leasing, swapping
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Research Titles Available to Date and Planned: Each Study is Average of 500 research hours
Already Published
1.Strategic Assessment of European Passenger Electric Vehicles Market - May 2008
2.Strategic Analysis of European Market for Electric Corner Modules - Oct 08
3.Strategic Analysis of Global Market for Fuel Cell Electric - Aug 2008
4.World Hybrid/Electric Vehicle Battery Markets -Jun 2008
5.Strategic Analysis of In Car Green Technologies - Jun 2008
6.Advances in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (Technical Insights)
7.Global Market Analysis of Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Dec 2007
8.European Consumers’ Attitudes & Perceptions Towards Sustainability, Environment
and Alternate Power-trains - Includes section on Electric Vehicles
Research in Progress
1.Strategic Review of New EV Business Models in the Automotive Industry – Q1, 2009
2.Analysis of Electric Vehicles Infrastructure for Automotive Applications in Europe and Revenue Generation Opportunities for
Utilities – Q1, 2009
3.Strategic Analysis of the Fleet Market Opportunity for Electric Vehicles in Europe – Q2, 2009
4.Asia Pacific Market Analysis for Electric Vehicles for Fleets and Private Consumer – Q1, 2009
5.North American Market for Electric Vehicles for Fleets and Private Consumer – Q2, 2009
6.VOC Study on EVs – Customers Interest in Electric Vehicles and Acceptability to New Business Models
7.The Generation Y Consumer: Future Vehicle and Features Choice and Brand Marketing Positioning Study – Consumer
Study to have section on EVs – Q2, 2009
Note: new titles and schedule is subject to change and is not guaranteed
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