2009 full year results announcement media€¦ · final dividend fully franked 25 cps up 92% full...
TRANSCRIPT
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2009 Full Year Results Announcement
Media
Financial Year Ending 30 June 2009
19 August 2009
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Important Notice
This presentation does not constitute investment advice, or an inducement or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any securities in Origin, in any jurisdiction (including the USA). This presentation is for information purposes only, is in a summary form, and does not purport to be complete. This presentation does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any investor, potential investor or any other person. No investment decision should be made in reliance on this presentation. Independent financial and taxation advice should be sought before making any investment decision.
Certain statements in this presentation are in the nature of forward looking statements, including statements of current intention, statements of opinion and predictions as to possible future events. Such statements are not statements of fact and there can be no certainty of outcome in relation to the matters to which the statements relate. These forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors that could cause the actual outcomes to be materially different from the events or results expressed or implied by such statements. Those risks, uncertainties, assumptions and otherimportant factors are not all within the control of Origin and cannot be predicted by Origin and include changes in circumstances or events that may cause objectives to change as well as risks, circumstances and events specific to the industry, countries and markets in which Origin and its related bodies corporate, joint ventures and associated undertakings operate. They also includegeneral economic conditions, exchange rates, interest rates, the regulatory environment, competitive pressures, selling price, market demand and conditions in the financial markets which may cause objectives to change or may cause outcomes not to be realised. None of Origin or any of its respective subsidiaries, affiliates and associated companies (or any of their respective officers, employees or agents) (the "Relevant Persons") makes any representation, assurance or guarantee as to the accuracy or likelihood of fulfilment of any forward looking statement or any outcomes expressed or implied in any forward looking statements. In addition, statements about past performance are not necessarily indicative of future performance. The forward looking statements in this presentation reflect views held only at the date of this presentation. Subject to any continuing obligations under law or the ASX Listing Rules, Origin and the Relevant Persons disclaim any obligation or undertaking to disseminate after the date of this presentation any updates or revisions to any forward looking statements to reflect any change in expectations in relation to anyforward looking statements or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which such statements are based.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this presentation and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by Origin or any of the Relevant Persons in relation to it. In particular, Origin does not endorse, and is not responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information in this presentation relating to a third party.
All references to "$" are references to Australian dollars unless otherwise specified.
A reference to Contact is a reference to Contact Energy of New Zealand, a 51% subsidiary of Origin.
A reference to APLNG is a reference to Australia Pacific LNG Pty Limited, an incorporated joint venture that Origin holds a 50% interest in.
All comparative data is in relation to the prior corresponding period, 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2008, unless otherwise stated. Certain comparative amounts have been reclassified to conform with the current year’s presentation.
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Outline
1. Performance Highlights
2. Financial Review
3. Operational Review
4. Outlook
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1. Performance Highlights
Grant King, Managing Director
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Origin’s Statutory Profit for the full year of $6.9 billion was driven by ConocoPhillips’ investment for a 50% interest in Origin’s CSG assets…
Statutory Profit $6,941 million up 1243%
Statutory Earnings per Share 791 cps up 1241%
Underlying Profit $530 million up 20%
Underlying Earnings per Share 60 cps up 19%
Final dividend fully franked 25 cps up 92%
Full year dividend fully franked 50 cps steady(1)
… which was also the main contributing factor to a 20% increase in Origin’s Underlying Profit to $530 million
(1) Compared to the 2008 Full Year Dividend declared in August 2008 and including the 25 cps Additional Dividend that was declared in October 2008
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Origin is now in a strong position to continue to grow and develop its business with access to cash and undrawn committed debt facilities of $5.3 billion and substantial additional balance sheet capacity
Source: Origin
Underlying financing costs for the year reduced by $188m to $32 million as a result of the reduction in debt and significant cash balance following the APLNG transaction
Adjusted Net Cash(1)
Adjusted Gross Debt
Cash
UndrawnCommitted
Debt Facilities
Available Funding Capacity
As at 30 June 2009
(1) Net Cash excluding mark to market adjustments on debtNote: All amounts exclude Contact Energy
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Origin’s EBITDAF declined 8% to $1,219 million, primarily due to reduced contribution from Contact, down $125 million on the prior year
In the balance of Origin’s business EBITDAF increased with the reduction in contribution from Retail more than offset by the significant increase in Generation
• Safety performance deteriorated as the Total Reportable Incident Frequency Rate increased by 7% to 9.1
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Origin’s ongoing target has been average underlying earnings growth of 10% to 15%
• Compound annual growth rates to date of:
– EBITDAF: 19%
– Underlying Profit: 23%
– Underlying Earnings Per Share: 17%
This result continues Origin’s consistent track record of growthSource: Origin
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… Origin continues to invest to grow its existing business through the completion of current projects, acquisitions and commitment to new development projects
• $1,207 million in generation including Darling Downs, Mortlake and Uranquinty Power Stations and Cullerin Range Wind Farm
• $597 million in Exploration and Production assets including CSG, Kupe and Darling Downs Pipeline
• $415 million invested by Contact in New Zealand
• $126 million on Retail projects and assets
• Acquisition of CSG exploration permit ATP 788P for $660 million was completed after 30 June 2009
• Origin has also secured a number of contract positions including long term off take from the Waubra Wind Farm and Osborne cogeneration plant and long term capacity on the South West Queensland gas pipeline
With total capital expenditure up 39% to $2.3 billion(1) for the year…
(1) Does not include ATP 788P, which was acquired for $660 million, as the transaction was completed after 30 June 2009
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2. Financial Review
Karen Moses, Executive Director Finance & Strategy
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Financial Highlights
Revenue $8,042 million down 3%
EBITDAF $1,219 million down 8%
Statutory Profit $6,941 million up 1243%
Underlying Profit $530 million up 20%
EPS – Statutory 791 cps up 1241%
EPS – Underlying 60 cps up 19%
Group OCAT $797 million down 9%
Free cash flow per share 76 cps up 7%
Capital Expenditure $2,345 million up 39%
Underlying Financing Costs $32 million down 85%
Origin Cash on Deposit(1) $3,751 million
Origin Undrawn Debt Facilities(2) $1,556 million
(1) Excluding Contact(2) Excluding Contact and bank guarantees
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Profit & Loss – Reconciliation of Statutory and Underlying
($ million) Jun 09 Jun 08 Change
Statutory NPAT 6,941 517 1243%
Significant items after tax
Net Impact of APLNG Transaction 6,724 -
Impairment of assets (218) -
Changes in fair value of financial instruments (114) (63)
Asset sales - 154
Other 19 (17)
Total significant items after tax 6,411 74
Underlying NPAT 530 443 20%
Underlying EPS 60 cps 51 cps 19%
The net impact of the APLNG Transaction of $6,724 million comprises:
• A significant pre-tax accounting gain of $7,385 million on dilution of Origin’s interest in APLNG. This gain is subject to a tax expense of $707 million resulting in an after tax gain of $6,678 million
• A net after tax gain of $46 million arising from the unwinding of the discount on the payables by Origin and receivables held within APLNG relating to contractually agreed investment from its shareholders
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Origin’s EBITDAF declined 8% to $1,219 million, primarily due to reduced contribution from Contact, down $125 million on the prior year
Segments ($ million) Jun 09 Jun 08 ChangeExploration & Production 264 266 (2)Generation 107 65 42Retail 479 499 (20)Contact Energy 369 494 (125)Total 1,219 1,324 (105)
• EBITDAF: Now includes the EBITDAF contribution from equity accounted investees. The segment results for June 2008 have been restated on this basis
• E&P: Record annual production and steady result despite the dilution of Origin’s CSG interests and lower oil and condensate prices
• Generation: Initial contributions from the Uranquinty Power Station and the Quarantine Power Station expansion
• Retail: Under recovery of costs primarily due to QCA’s initial FY09 benchmark tariff decision
• Contact: Unusual combination of weather events and transmission constraints that led to a significantly reduced net contribution from electricity and higher gas supply costs
In the balance of Origin’s business EBITDAF increased with the reduction in contribution from Retail more than offset by the significant increase in Generation
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Underlying Financing Costs for the year reduced by $188 million to $32 million as a result of the reduction in debt and significant cash balance following the APLNG transaction
($ million) Jun 09 Jun 08Interest Revenue 137 9
Interest Expense (169) (229)
Underlying Financing Costs (32) (220)Unwinding of discounted liability payable to APLNG (significant item) (140) -
Net Financing Costs (172) (220)Financing Costs Capitalised 120 55
Weighted average interest rate on borrowings 6.9% 7.7%
• Origin’s average interest rate on drawn debt as at June includes Contact’s debt and comprises an average of Australian dollar, NZ dollar and US dollar debt
• Over the period to June 2010, 57% of Origin’s and Contact’s debt obligations are hedged at an average rate of 6.8% including funding margin. These hedging arrangements roll off over the next five years
• Origin’s cash balance has been invested with the major domestic banks. Of this amount, $2.0 billion has been invested with maturities between December 2009 and June 2010 at an average rate of 4.1%
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Capital Expenditure
($ million) Jun 09 Jun 08Stay-in-business 209 178
Growth
Exploration & Production 541 714
Generation 1,029 484
Retail 84 72
Contact Energy 318 128
Total capital expenditure 2,181 1,576
Acquisitions (net of cash) 165 109
Capex including acquisitions 2,345 1,685
• Growth capex has risen with the development of several Generation projects, CSG (pre-completion of the APLNG transaction), Kupe, Retail systems and development by Contact of power station and geothermal assets
• Acquisitions predominantly reflects the net consideration for Uranquinty which was acquired in July 2008 for a fully constructed enterprise value of $700 million (comprising net $126 million cash paid on acquisition, future capital expenditure to commissioning date of $139 million recorded as growth capital expenditure and assumption of existing debt facilities and obligations)
• The acquisition of CSG exploration permit ATP 788P for $660 million was not completed during the period and is therefore not included in these figures
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Operating Cash Flow
($ million) Jun 09 Jun 08
EBITDAF 1,219 1,324
Change in working capital (103) (176)
Stay-in-business capex (209) (178)
Book value of assets sold - 26
Other 10 22
Tax paid (120) (143)
Group OCAT 797 875
Net interest paid (136) (253)
Free cash flow 661 622
Productive Capital(1) 7,256 6,516
Group OCAT Ratio(2) 10.4% 12.3%
(1) Productive Capital is funds employed excluding capital work in progress and including 50% of APLNG(2) Group OCAT Ratio = (OCAT – interest tax shield)/Productive Capital
• Group OCAT decreased by 9% to $797 million, mainly due to lower EBITDAF in Contact, an increase in stay-in-business capex in the Exploration & Production and Generation businesses and proceeds from the sale of the Newstead site in 2008
• Productive Capital increased by 11%, primarily due to the acquisition of the Uranquinty Power Station
• Both Group OCAT and Productive Capital include Origin’s 50% share of APLNG• CAPWIP (which is excluded from Productive Capital) includes major projects such as Kupe,
Darling Downs Power Station, Mortlake Power Station and Contact generation projects
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Origin is now in a strong position to continue to grow and develop its business with access to cash and undrawn committed debt facilities of $5.3 billion and substantial additional balance sheet capacity
Source: Origin
Adjusted Net Cash
Adjusted Net Debt
as at 30 June 2008(1)
Non-Cash FX Im
pact
Uranquinty
Acquisition(2)
Capex &
Other
Acquisitions
Operating Cash &
Interest Paid
APLNG
Receipts
Share Issue/Buyback &
Dividends
Adjusted Net Cash
as at 30 June 2009(1)
Adjusted Gross Debt
Cash
Undrawn Committed Debt Facilities
Available Funding Capacity
As at 30 June 2009
(1) Net Cash/(Debt) excluding mark to market adjustments on debt(2) Uranquinty acquisition includes debt assumed on acquisitionNote: All amounts exclude Contact Energy
Capex and acquisitions in the second half of around $900 millionwere mainly financed from cash and undrawn debt facilities
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Debt Maturity Profile
Source: OriginNote: Excluding Contact
• Origin’s gross cash position is $3.7 billion
• Future capital expenditure commitments, including APLNG and maturing debt obligations, are covered for the next 3 years by future cash flow and the current cash position
• Beyond the next 3 years, APLNG capital expenditure can be covered by “rolling” existing debt facilities forward
• Debt maturity profile continues to be prudently managed
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Origin Dividends History
2 56 7 9
10 124 3
57 8
911
13
25
25
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09
100% 100% 40% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
cent
s pe
r sh
are
Dec Half Jun Half Additional
Franking
… consistent with the previously announced intention to rebase dividends at 50 cps annually and target a higher payout ratio of at least 60% of Underlying Profit
A fully franked final dividend of 25 cps, up 92% on the prior year, has been declared taking the full year dividend to 50 cps…
• Ex-dividend date 25 August 2009
• Date of record 31 August 2009
• Payable 23 September 2009
• Dividend payout ratio of 83% of Underlying EPS, or 6% of Statutory EPS
• Following completion of the APLNG transaction, Origin declared an additional fully franked dividend of 25 cps in October 2008
• Origin also undertook an on market buyback of shares. The buyback was terminated in February 2009 after Origin had purchased 12.1 million shares for a total consideration of $195 million
• Dividend Reinvestment Plan was subsequently reinstated on 29 June 2009 without a discount and will apply to this final dividendSource: Origin
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3. Operational Review
Grant King, Managing Director
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Exploration & Production
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Revenue EBITDAF Capex** Does not include acquisitions
Tot
al R
even
ue &
EBI
TD
AF (
$m)
0
110
220
330
440
550
660
770
CAPE
X ($
m)
Jun-09Jun-08
Exploration & Production: Record production with a substantial increase in APLNG’s CSG reserves…
• EBITDAF of $264m was similar to the prior year with full year contribution from production assets in the Otway and Taranaki Basins offsetting the dilution of CSG interests following the APLNG transaction and lower realised liquids prices
• APLNG transaction completed establishing 50:50 CSG to LNG joint venture with ConocoPhillips
• APLNG appraisal activities over the year increased reserves by around 2,500 PJe to 7,265 PJe (2P) and 12,627 PJe (3P)(1)
• Kupe Gas Project is nearing completion and Origin is expecting to open the wells and bring raw gas ashore in the December Quarter 2009
• Acquired additional CSG exploration interests that are expected to provide Origin over 1,000 PJ of 3P reserves
• Commencing a significant offshore exploration programme targeting substantial reserve increases near domestic markets in Australia and New Zealand
… which offset the impact of the dilution through the APLNG transaction on Origin’s CSG interests(1) APLNG’s interest, Origin has a 50% interest in APLNG.
-
2P
3P
2C
3C
23
APLNG continues to grow its CSG reserves with significant reserves increases that demonstrate the size and quality of APLNG’s CSG resource…
APLNG’s Reserves (PJ) 30 Jun 2008 30 Jun 2009(1) Change Increase
2P Reserves 4,793 7,265 + 2,472 + 52%
3P Reserves 10,222 12,627 + 2,405 + 24%
Contingent Resource(2) 15,869 13,073 - 2,796 - 18%
(1) Reserves as at 30 June 2009 are shown net of CSG production for FY 2009(2) Contingent Resource shown as 2C at 30 June 2008 and 3C (which is inclusive of 2C) at 30 June 2009Note: Some of APLNG’s CSG reserves and resources are subject to reversionary rights.Refer to Origin’s 2009 Annual Reserves Report for further information
… with the scale and development capability to support a multipletrain LNG project
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APLNG is Australia’s largest producer of CSG, representing around one third of total CSG production…
Source: OriginNote: Includes APLNG’s Denison Trough conventional gas interests from 2009
… with production expected to almost double by 2011 to meet domestic contract requirements
• Production is 35% higher than last year at almost 60 PJ as new CSG production facilities are brought on line
• Production expected to exceed 100 PJ per annum by 2011 to meet domestic contract requirements
• Scalable, component based facilities are being developed to deliver economical and reliable capacity based on best practice activities and design
• Taloona Gas Plant completed and now operational
• Construction of the Talinga Gas Plant and development of Spring Gully Phase 6 has commenced
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APLNG is progressing well with the development of its CSG to LNGproject and has now selected a site at Gladstone for its downstream operations
Project remains on schedule for first LNG sales at the end of 2014
• APLNG has secured the Laird Point site on Curtis Island in the Port of Gladstone for its proposed CSG to LNG plant
• 230 hectare site that is well positioned for a world class multi train LNG development
• Environmental Impact Statement expected to be lodged in early 2010
• Final Investment Decision expected at the end of 2010
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Otway Gas Project provided its first full year contribution…
Top: Otway Gas Project (Source: Woodside Energy Ltd)Bottom: BassGas Project
(1) Represents Origin’s equity share of 2008/09 production
Otway Gas Project• 30.75% equity interest• Operating reliably at or around peak capacity during
high demand periods• Annual production(1) of 18 PJ of gas and 190,000 barrels
of liquids• Origin’s integrated business purchases around 48% of
the gas output under long term contracts• 2P reserves decreased by 22% following reserves
revisions to the Thylacine field by the project operator• Somerset prospect to be drilled this year
BassGas Project• 42.5% interest and operator• Annual production(1) of 8 PJ of gas and 310,000 barrels
of liquids• Production constraints limited output, facility now
back at normal operating levels• Origin’s integrated business purchases the entire gas
output from the project under long term contracts• Trefoil & Rockhopper prospects to be drilled this year
… and BassGas production has stabilised after facing production constraints in the first half
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In New Zealand, the Kupe Gas Project is nearing completion…
Kupe Gas Project• Construction of the offshore facilities, wells and
associated infrastructure is complete• Onshore production station near Hawera is nearing
completion• Expecting to open the wells and bring raw gas
ashore in the December Quarter 2009• Gross annual production expected to be around 20
PJ of sales gas together with over 2 million barrels of condensate and LPG
Ahuroa Gas Storage• Construction of gas injection facilities completed
with injection of sales gas being undertaken since December 2008
• Next stage of development involves installation of pipelines, larger compressors and additional wells and is expected to be approved by Contact shortly
• Project being developed by Origin on behalf of Contact Energy
• Expected to be operational in mid 2010
Kupe Gas Project onshore production facilities
… and development of the Ahuroa Gas Storage Project continues
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Bass BasinOrigin, as Operator of permits T/18P and T/44P, has secured the semi submersible rig “Kan Tan IV” to drill at least 3 wells including the appraisal well Trefoil 2 and exploration well Rockhopper 1. Drilling operations are expected to commence in Q3 2009.
Otway BasinWoodside, as Operator of permit T/34P, has secured the semi submersible rig “Ocean Patriot” to drill the exploration well Somerset-1 in late 2009/early 2010.
Northland BasinOrigin, as Operator of permit PEP 38619, has secured the semi submersible rig “Kan Tan IV”to drill the exploration wells Korimako 1 and Tarapunga 1. Drilling operations are expected to commence in Q1 2010.
In the coming year Origin has committed to a significant offshore exploration programme targeting substantial reserves increases near domestic markets in Australia and New Zealand
The initial 5 well program is expected to cost Origin around $100m, and may be extended to drill additional wells
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Origin has acquired ATP 788P, a highly prospective CSG exploration permit on the southerly extension of the Undulla Nose…
… adding to Origin’s domestic gas supply portfolio that also includes ownership of conventional gas reserves and contracts for purchases from third parties
(1) Based on 2P reserves as at 30 June 2009(2) APLNG has approximately another 1,100 PJ of gas contracted for sale to
third parties previously supplied by Origin(3) ATP 788P is expected to provide over 1,000 PJ of 3P reserves when booked
Gas Available for Domestic Energy Portfolio
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Origin EquityGas
ContractedFrom APLNG
ContractedFrom Third
Parties
ATP 788P 3PReserves
APLNGRamp-up
PJ
(1) (2) (3)
-
30
Vic27%
Qld66%
SA 6%
The expansion of the South West Queensland Pipeline will provide Origin with long term gas pipeline capacity to link its Eastern Australian portfolio…
• In June 2009 Origin entered into a conditional agreement with Epic Energy to underpin construction of new capacity on the South West Queensland Pipeline and QSN Link from Wallumbilla to Moomba
• Provides Origin with transportation capacity for up to 1,200 PJ of gas over 22 years from 2012, extension options over some capacity for up to a further 10 years and options to further expand capacity in the future
• Also includes long term capacity on the Moomba to Adelaide Pipeline
… providing Origin with increased flexibility in moving gas resources from Queensland to customers and power stations in southern Australia
Location of Origin’s Gas Resources
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Generation
-
32
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
Revenue EBITDAF Capex** Does not include acquisitions
Tot
al R
even
ue &
EBI
TDA
F ($
m)
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
CAP
EX (
$m)
Jun-09Jun-08
Generation: Peaking power station capacity has more than doubled in 2009…
• EBITDAF was $107 million, up 65% on last year, primarily due to the initial contribution of Uranquinty Power Station and expansion of the Quarantine Power Station
• Operating capacity more than doubled to 1,495 MW following completion of the Uranquinty peaking power station, expansion of the Quarantine peaking power station and completion of Cullerin Range Wind Farm
• Power station developments at Darling Downs, Mortlake and Mt Stuart, which are all progressing well, will add 1,306 MW of capacity
• Construction of the 192 MW Waubra wind farm is now complete with the off take fully contracted to Origin
• Acquisition of WindPower Pty Ltd secured portfolio of high quality wind development sites and enhanced Origin’s renewable power development capability
• Acquired 180 MW long term power purchase agreement with Osborne
• Extended outage at Worsley partially offset by an insurance claim for business interruption and repair costs
… with the acquisition of Uranquinty Power Station and completionof a number of generation developments significantly increasing Origin’s capacity contracted to its Retail business
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Origin continues to grow its Generation portfolio to meet its Retail requirements
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With the RET forecast to drive investment in intermittent renewable generation, additional competitively priced generation is needed to meet the balance of the market’s requirements…
• Significant new wind capacity expected to be developed to meet near term RET requirements, with Origin’s modelling suggesting over 6,000 MW of new wind capacity to be built in the market by 2020
• Intermittency of wind means that only 8% of installed capacity is available to meet maximum demand(1)
• Gas fired peaking generation is well placed to meet the balance of the market’s requirements
• With the addition of Uranquinty and expansion of Quarantine, Origin has more than doubled peaking capacity to 1,298 MW
• Mt Stuart expansion is due for completion in late 2009
• Capacity at Braemar 1 & 2 and Osborne secured under long term contracts that provide additional peaking capacity
• Permitted sites provide 1,670 MW of options for additional gas fired capacity
… Origin’s portfolio of gas fired peaking power stations is well placed to balance the intermittency of wind generation and fulfil demand growth in the market
Source: Origin forecast based on NEMMCO’s SOO 2008 demand dataNotes: Excluding non renewable plant currently under construction
(1) 8% Contribution Factor for wind based upon NEMMCO’s SOO 2008 Summer Contribution Factors for Victoria and South Australia
Forecast Additional NEM Generation by Fuel Type to Meet Demand Growth
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Retail
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Retail: In a year of challenging operating conditions, higher revenues and increased gas margins have been offset by higher electricity costs not fully reflected in tariff increases
• Revenue was up 7% due to tariff increases in all markets but margin was down due to increased wholesale electricity costs and the Queensland Competition Authority’s initial tariff decision
• EBITDAF was $479 million, down 4% on last year
• Cost to serve increased due to higher costs in dealing with customers experiencing payment difficulties and systems upgrade and implementation costs
• Gas and electricity customer numbers remained steady
• Systems and process transformation and back office outsourcing program underway with Wipro
• Origin remains the clear market leader in green energy sales and its accredited green power customer base has grown to over 500,000 customers
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Revenue EBITDAF Capex** Does not include acquisitions
Tot
al R
even
ue (
$m)
0
80
160
240
320
400
480
560
EBIT
DAF
& C
APE
X ($
m)
Jun-09Jun-08
-
37
It had been expected that margin forgone as a result of the QCA’s initial tariff determination would be recovered through other initiatives…
Gas & Electricity Customers Jun 09 Jun 08 Change
Customer numbers (’000) 2,610 2,609 +1
EBITDAF / Sales 8.8% 9.9% -1.1%
Underlying EBIT / Sales 8.1% 9.2% -1.1%
$ Per Customer:
Gross Margin / Customer 296 299 -3
Opex / Customer (including Corporate Costs) 130 121 +9
EBITDAF / Customer 166 178 -12
… however, due to Retail operating conditions this was not the case, therefore full year margins are lower than last year
100% of Origin’s Corporate Costs have been allocated to Australian business segmentsCorporate costs of $71m have been allocated to the Gas and Electricity retail operations ($64m June 2008)
• EBITDAF margin primarily down due to QCA’s initial tariff determination
• Increase in operating costs primarily driven by bad debts and related activities and managing residual operational issues, including migration of Sun Retail accounts to Origin systems
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Churn increased in Origin’s principal markets and 454,000 new gas and electricity accounts were acquired to maintain customer numbers
Year End Customer Numbers
(000’s) Natural Gas Electricity Total
June 2008 880 1,729 2,609
Change -13 +14 +1
June 2009 867 1,743 2,610
• In Victoria, where price caps have been abolished, churn remains high and has significantly increased in electricity. Other markets have shown increasing or steady churn levels
• Steady customer numbers reflects Origin’s average churn rate of 17%• Origin now has around 335,000 electricity accounts established across New South Wales and
South Australia• Dual fuel customers have declined 2% to 874,000 primarily due to high churn in Victoria
Source: Origin based on various websites including VENCorp, NEMMCO, Gasmarketco & Company Information
% Churn: 12 Month Rolling Average
State Fuel June 08 Change June 09
Vic Electricity 23% + 4% 27%
Vic Gas 22% + 1% 23%
QLD Electricity 21% - 1% 20%
QLD Gas 5% + 7% 12%
SA Electricity 16% - 1% 15%
SA Gas 13% - 2% 11%
NSW Electricity 10% + 2% 12%
NSW Gas 5% - 1% 4%
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Origin is the clear leader in green energy sales…
… and offers a suite of innovative energy solutions in a period of emerging carbon policy
Market Share of GreenPower® Customers(1)
• Accredited green power customer base grew by 21% to 514,000 customers(2) (up from 423,000 at 30 June 2008)
• Origin’s residential products ranked 1, 2 and 3 by Total Environment Centre Green Energy Watch Review
• Origin continues to grow its solar installation business with activity now at over 1,000 installations per month
• Adelaide Solar City Project is progressing well with solar photovoltaic product offerings fully subscribed. Similar projects are underway in Central Victoria at Bendigo and Ballarat with Origin to install 300 kW grid connected solar farms at each location
(1) Source: National GreenPower Accreditation ProgramQuarterly Status Report 1 January to 31 March 2009
(2) Includes GreenPower electricity accounts and offset green gas accounts
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Contact Energy
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Contact Energy: While earnings were significantly reduced due to a combination of extreme weather events and transmission constraints…
• EBITDAF was $369 million, down 25% on last year, primarily due to extreme hydro events in conjunction with transmission constraints between the North and South Islands and lower demand
• Contact is progressing the development of a number of geothermal and gas fired power projects to help mitigate future transmission risks and further enhance the flexibility of its generation portfolio
• Development of geothermal generation opportunities continues to be a key priority
• Contact has maintained dividends under its Profit Distribution Plan
• Contact has a strong balance sheet and is well positioned to support its growth project pipeline having undertaken a number of capital raising initiatives including a retail bond issue, new debt facilities and a Profit Distribution Plan0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
RevenueEBITDAF Capex** Does not include acquisitions
Tota
l Rev
enue
($m
)
0
90
180
270
360
450
540
630
EBIT
DAF
& C
APE
X ($
m)
Jun-09Jun-08
… the future for Contact remains positive with a number of growthprojects being developed to add flexibility and value to its portfolio
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42
4. Outlook
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43
A number of projects Origin has been developing are expected to make initial or significantly increased contributions to financial performance in the coming financial year
• Full year contribution from the Uranquinty and expanded Quarantine Power Stations
• Full year contribution from the recently completed Cullerin Range Wind Farm
• Continued development of domestic CSG production, which is expected to reach over 100 PJ per annum for APLNG by 2011
• Kupe Gas Project is nearing completion and Origin is expecting to open the wells and bring raw gas ashore in the December Quarter 2009
• Initial contribution from the expanded Mt Stuart Power Station from late 2009
• The Darling Downs Power Station is expected to be fully commissioned in the latter half of FY10
• The Retail business will benefit from the QCA’s final benchmark tariff decision which will result in underlying electricity costs being more appropriately reflected in the tariffs for FY10
• Origin expects increased contributions from Contact based on the presumption that weather in New Zealand will return to more normal levels
Based on these factors and current market conditions Origin is targeting an increase in Underlying Profit for FY10 of around 15% compared with the prior year
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Origin will continue to progress the development of several major projects in its existing business which are expected to make contributions in the years ahead
• Development of the 550 MW Mortlake Power Station which is due for completion in late 2010
• Continued development of domestic CSG production
• Projects under development by Contact including the Stratford peaking power station, the Ahuroa gas storage project and expansion of geothermal generation
• Origin has developed a substantial portfolio of renewable energy opportunities including wind, geothermal and solar photovoltaic energy. Passage of renewable energy legislation will generate substantial further investment in these areas
• APLNG is working effectively towards the development of a CSG to LNG project in Queensland
• Benefit from the active exploration program that will continue to target reserves near key domestic markets
With this range of opportunities before it, Origin continues to target ongoing growth in Underlying Profit averaging 10% to 15% per annum
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The past year has been challenging for financial markets and many companies have been severely constrained in accessing capital to fund their businesses…
Source: Origin
Adjusted Net Cash(1)
Adjusted Gross Debt Cash
Undrawn Committed
Debt Facilities
Available Funding Capacity
As at 30 June 2009
(1) Net Cash excluding mark to market adjustments on debtNote: All amounts exclude Contact Energy
With $5.3 billion in cash and undrawn committed debt facilities,Origin is able to fund the many opportunities it has to continue to grow and develop its business
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2009 Full Year Results Announcement
Financial Year Ending 30 June 2009
19 August 2009
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Further Information
Media
Lina MeleroGeneral Manager, Corporate CommunicationEmail: [email protected]: +61 2 8345 5217Mobile: + 61 4 27 017 798
Websitewww.originenergy.com.au