Missouri Yields Compared to National

Macon Average Basis By Month

Average Futures By Month

Ending Stocks Ending Stocks Yield MO MO

Year U.S. Yield final beginning est MO Yield US / MO diff. N/C district N/E district NC/NE diff.

2003 142 1087 759 111 31 110 68 42

2004 160 958 1350 162 -2 162 169 -7

2005 148 2113 1690 111 37 110 68 42

2006 149 1967 2219 138 11 147 137 10

2007 151 1304 996 140 11 136 136 0

2008 153 1624 1997 144 9 136 137 -1

2009 164 1673 1088 166 -2 144 149 -5

2010 153 1708 1672 145 8 104 106 16

2011 147 1128 902 114 33 120 104 16

2012 123 989 866 75 48 59 45 14

2013 159 821 619 136 23 116 123 -7

2014 171 1855 1232 181 -10 181 188 -7

2015 168 1731 1808 142 26 140 124 -7

2016 175 1738 2008 163 12 169 170 1

BASIS

Month 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average Range

January -$0.04 -$0.08 -$0.02 -$0.21 -$0.28 -$0.17 -$0.32 -$0.27 -$0.08 $0.33 $0.03 -$0.33 $0.01 -$0.22 -$0.12 $0.66

February -$0.03 -$0.15 -$0.08 -$0.18 -$0.29 $0.04 -$0.24 -$0.26 -$0.09 $0.37 $0.00 -$0.19 -$0.02 -$0.25 -$0.10 $0.63

March -$0.08 -$0.14 -$0.12 -$0.25 -$0.40 -$0.05 -$0.25 -$0.24 $0.02 $0.37 -$0.17 -$0.29 -$0.08 -$0.25 -$0.14 $0.77

April -$0.02 -$0.11 -$0.15 -$0.11 -$0.47 -$0.21 -$0.12 -$0.15 $0.17 $0.47 -$0.15 -$0.28 -$0.14 -$0.14 -$0.10 $0.94

May $0.02 -$0.10 -$0.23 $0.06 -$0.53 -$0.21 -$0.22 -$0.08 $0.43 $0.54 -$0.12 -$0.17 -$0.18 -$0.06 $1.07

June -$0.05 -$0.19 -$0.18 $0.07 -$0.51 -$0.15 -$0.19 $0.00 $0.60 $0.85 $0.06 -$0.18 -$0.25 -$0.01 $1.36

July -$0.04 -$0.22 -$0.21 $0.04 -$0.40 -$0.01 -$0.28 $0.34 $0.06 $1.49 $0.07 -$0.24 -$0.21 $0.03 $1.89

August -$0.04 -$0.07 -$0.17 -$0.03 -$0.14 -$0.09 -$0.33 $0.11 $0.00 $0.73 -$0.06 -$0.16 -$0.31 -$0.04 $0.90

September -$0.21 -$0.26 -$0.28 -$0.33 -$0.29 -$0.20 -$0.51 -$0.22 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.16 -$0.26 -$0.43 -$0.24 $0.50

October -$0.28 -$0.19 -$0.26 -$0.20 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.44 -$0.08 $0.20 -$0.17 -$0.54 -$0.20 -$0.37 -$0.22 $0.74

November -$0.17 $0.03 -$0.13 -$0.16 -$0.16 -$0.20 -$0.29 -$0.08 $0.27 -$0.01 -$0.45 -$0.02 -$0.35 -$0.13 $0.72

December -$0.18 -$0.01 -$0.20 -$0.28 -$0.23 -$0.36 -$0.24 -$0.10 $0.20 -$0.01 -$0.40 -$0.03 -$0.30 -$0.16 $0.60

FUTURES 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average Range

January $2.67 $2.00 $2.13 $3.91 $4.88 $3.91 $3.86 $6.35 $6.28 $7.14 $4.27 $3.89 $3.63 $3.61 $4.22 5.14

February $2.83 $2.08 $2.23 $4.12 $5.17 $3.63 $3.63 $6.93 $6.40 $7.04 $4.46 $3.84 $3.63 $3.69 $4.26 4.96

March $3.06 $2.17 $2.28 $4.07 $5.53 $3.80 $3.68 $6.89 $6.49 $7.15 $4.84 $3.86 $3.63 $3.66 $4.36 4.98

April $3.16 $2.12 $2.37 $3.62 $5.93 $4.21 $3.54 $7.50 $6.30 $6.30 $5.01 $3.75 $3.73 $3.63 $4.37 5.38

May $3.02 $2.12 $2.50 $3.74 $6.03 $4.21 $3.66 $7.25 $6.01 $6.50 $4.89 $3.61 $3.93 $4.42 5.13

June $2.86 $2.22 $2.38 $3.81 $6.98 $4.14 $3.48 $7.21 $5.83 $6.25 $4.48 $3.64 $4.12 $4.41 4.99

July $2.37 $2.40 $2.49 $3.30 $6.51 $3.27 $3.78 $6.68 $7.59 $5.28 $3.80 $4.12 $3.46 $4.23 5.22

August $2.25 $2.16 $2.30 $3.31 $5.52 $3.27 $4.10 $7.16 $8.09 $4.81 $3.59 $3.68 $3.24 $4.11 5.93

September $2.18 $2.10 $2.49 $3.59 $5.46 $3.25 $4.86 $7.04 $7.68 $4.62 $3.39 $3.79 $3.34 $4.14 5.58

October $2.05 $2.02 $3.04 $3.58 $4.13 $3.72 $5.49 $6.28 $7.50 $4.39 $3.46 $3.83 $3.50 $4.08 5.48

November $1.99 $1.93 $3.55 $3.81 $3.75 $3.91 $5.49 $6.28 $7.39 $4.23 $3.74 $3.66 $3.45 $4.09 5.46

December $2.05 $2.08 $3.75 $4.32 $3.69 $4.02 $5.94 $6.03 $7.20 $4.29 $4.03 $3.71 $3.54 $4.20 5.15

U.S. Carryout Compared to Futures Price

Crop Insurance Guarantees

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Projected 4.06 5.4 4.04 3.99 6.01 5.68 5.65 4.62 4.15 3.86 3.96

Harvest 3.82 4.13 3.9 5.52 6.32 7.5 4.39 3.49 3.83 3.49

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Projected 8.09 13.36 8.8 9.23 13.49 12.55 12.87 11.36 9.73 8.85 10.19

Harvest 9.75 10.36 9.66 11.63 12.14 15.39 12.87 9.65 8.91 9.75

Futures Spreads

Temperature and Yield Correlation

SPREADS Next Mo Diff Date

CH08 CK08 -0.1375 3/14/2008

CK08 CN08 -0.0650 5/14/2008

CN08 CU08 -0.0675 7/14/2008

CU08 CZ08 -0.1575 9/12/2008

CZ08 CH09 -0.1400 12/12/2008

CH09 CK09 -0.1350 3/13/2009

CK09 CN09 -0.0675 5/14/2009

CN09 CU09 0.1150 7/14/2009

CU09 CZ09 -0.1275 9/14/2009

CZ09 CH10 -0.1650 12/14/2009

CH10 CK10 -0.1025 3/12/2010

CK10 CN10 -0.0625 5/14/2010

CN10 CU10 -0.0900 7/14/2010

CU10 CZ10 -0.1700 9/14/2010

CZ10 CH11 -0.1275 12/14/2010

CH11 CK11 -0.0200 3/14/2011

CK11 CN11 -0.0300 5/13/2011

CN11 CU11 0.2575 7/14/2011

CU11 CZ11 -0.1125 9/14/2011

CZ11 CH12 -0.0075 12/14/2011

CH12 CK12 0.1075 3/14/2012

CK12 CN12 0.2500 5/14/2012

CN12 CU12 0.1525 7/13/2012

CU12 CZ12 -0.0450 9/14/2012

CZ12 CH13 -0.1200 12/14/2012

CH13 CK13 0.1625 3/14/2013

CK13 CN13 0.5425 5/14/2013

CN13 CU13 1.5600 7/12/2013

CU13 CZ13 -0.0900 9/13/2013

CZ13 CH14 -0.0500 12/13/2013

CH14 CK14 -0.1375 3/14/2014

CK14 CN14 -0.0075 5/14/2014

CN14 CU14 0.0875 7/14/2014

CU14 CZ14 0.0050 9/12/2014

CZ14 CH15 -0.1125 12/12/2014

CH15 CK15 -0.06 3/12/2015

CK15 CN15 -0.0375 5/1/2015

CN15 CU15 -0.08 6/15/2015

CU15 CZ15 -0.11 8/15/2015

CZ15 CH16 -0.06 12/14/2015

CH16 CK16 -0.04 3/14/2016

CK16 CN16 -0.035 5/1/2016

CN16 CU16 -0.05 6/20/2016

CU16 CZ16 -0.1 8/15/2016

CZ16 CH17 -0.11 12/1/2016

CH17 CK17 -0.07 3/14/2017

CK17 CN17 -0.075 4/28/2017

Quarterly Stocks

Corn Distribution

10 Year Macon Futures and Basis

Acreage Trends

Here’s a look at initial 17/18 carryout and price scenarios. I’ve made some fairly large adjustments to

my demand estimates, specifically in exports. I’ve got exports at 1.75B vs the USDA at 1.875B. Both

estimates are a substantial reduction vs the 2.225B this year. US export offers out of the Gulf and PNW

are 30-40 cpb higher than South American offers to Southeast Asia. In addition, rumors that Mexico has

already booked 120MM bushels out of Brazil for 17/18 crop year, which is a direct hit to US exports. I’ve

also got Feed & Residual at 38% of production, so as production increases/decreases, F&R moves in

tandem. USDA has reported F&R at approximately 38% of production on average for the past 3

years. Residual seems to be their contingency factor to eliminate fluctuations from huge yield

adjustments.

It’s going to take a sub 166 yield to bring the carryout below 2B bushels at 90MM planted acres. Based

on recent conversations with contacts in IL, sounds like there is already talk of switching to beans

when/if things dry out in the next week as crop insurance date deadline is looming for corn. This will

definitely be something to watch – losing IL acres has a substantial impact on national yield as those are

some of the highest yielding acres in the US.