2010 digital trends, ideas and technologies (part 1)

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Digital Trends for 2010 based around 4 themes including: Real-time, Won't believe the hype, Good cause/Cause Good and Developing a Playful Side. David J Carr, Digital Strategy Director, Chemistry Communications

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

(plus a few digressions)

[Part 1]

Page 2: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

a quick pinch of salt...But first

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”

Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

“There’s no chance the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”Steve Ballmer, MSFT CEO 2007

“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.”

Popular Mechanics, forecasting the march of science, 1949

“There is no reason anyone wouldwant a computer in their home.”Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. 1977

Page 3: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
Page 4: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

(REAL)time

now. live.&

#1

Page 5: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

(REAL)time

now. live.&

#1

Page 6: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

So what is happening now?

Lots of people are talking

about... Real-time streams,

Real-time search,

Real-time expectations.

why?

Page 7: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

19% of internet

users now say they use Twitter

or another service to share

updates about themselves,

or to see updates about others.

27.3 million tweets

per day with an annual run

rate of 10 billion tweets

40 million Facebook

status updates a day from a

350 million-plus audience.

800 million

status updates a month by

Yahoo Mail And IM Users

Sources: Pew Internet And American Life Project, Facebook, Yahoo, Pingdom

Ages of online adults

18-24 who have used

Twitter or updated

a status online

18–24

25–34

35–44

45–54

55–64

+65

19%

20%10%

5%

4%

2%

Page 8: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Technology means we’ve never

been more aware that there’s a

lot of things happening now.

And we’re actively contributing

Page 9: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

People using technology to share what they do, buy, think, and watch“live-streams”

...creating more and more information.How are we dealing with it?

Page 10: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

No, it’s not a joke. “The GScreen Spacebook was designed to help you get more done in a mobile environment”

?Maybe not...

More seriously,

Real-time search.

we’re looking to practically integrate the increasing infomation overload into our lives via technology filters like

? "Phantom vibration syndrome."

— the feeling when you answer your

vibrating mobile, only to find it

never vibrated at all. (Neuroplasticity)

Getting help for

a digression

Page 11: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

What is so different about real-time search v. normal search?

How are people already approaching real-time search?

o Bing & Google are already integrating Twitter & Updates into their search results, Yahoo is putting them on the homepage, even MSN linking Facebook, Twitter & Live.

o “We don’t know enough about what kinds of queries people would issue against real-time data to know how monetizable it is.” Marissa Mayer, Google

o Relevancy is important, but timeliness is the essential part.

o It is getting an idea of what people are talking about or interested in now.

o 40.55% of the tweets are phatic

o 37.55% are conversational

o 8.7% have "pass along value"

o 5.85% are self-promotional

o 3.75% are spam

o 3.6% are news.

o The potential is to combine: - on-the-spot peer reviews - recommendations - discovery - offers and time sensitive calls to action - social media connections/referrals - instant information updates.

BU

T...

Page 12: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

And people are exploring new(ish) tools

Mentionmap maps the topicsof conversation heating up in your social graph.

Page 13: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

With new ways of converting noise to knowledge.

Ellendale uses Freebase and other information sources to create a “semantic analysis of the real-time web.”

Page 14: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Practical approaches to search and other real-time trends...

Temporal cues in your search query determine the relevance of time and change the priority of your resultse.g. If you search for “snow conditions at your favorite ski resort, you’ll find updates from other users who are there and sharing the latest and greatest information.”

Real-time online collaboration

o A Business benefit of the real-time trend.

o Part of the shift from batch analytics and waterfall processes, to real-time analytics and agile processes.

o Using Google Wave and add-ons like SAP’s Gravity.

o Enable groups of people to collaborate on projects without the cost or infrastructure investment of a Sharepoint-type solution.

Sources: Top 15 Technology trends for Enterprise Architects to watch, Forrester; Google

Page 15: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Real-time customer

service

o Visible staff involvement in problem resolution.

o Reacting and responding to questions and issues quickly and transparently, #twelpforce: 13,000 queries in the first two months.

o Engaging in real human conversations.

Page 16: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

“Please hide/remove the customer-service number.”

“Our requirement is the reduce calls to the call-centre.”

“We want people to self-serve.”

a digression

And yet

Page 17: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

@Corp

@Someone

DM @Someone

[email protected]

0800 000 000

Immediate/auto response & then hand-over aknowledgement

Inquiry/monitoring

TechSupportHR

CEO

Marketing Customer Service

ROUTE TO CORRECT DEPARTM

ENT

ASS

IGN TO NAMED HANDLER TO RESPOND IN APPROPRIATE M

EDIU

M

Empowered decision-making,training & investment.

Page 18: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Things happen in real-time but can stick around for a long time.

Over a month later the SERP results for “Vodafone & Twitter” are dominated by the news story, not product information.

Page 19: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Rea

l-time d

ialo

gu

e ca

mpaig

ns

Page 20: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Aggregating opinion & newsworthy content to improve coverage of real time events.

Page 21: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
Page 22: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
Page 23: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Brands stimulating and aggregating streams of relevant conversations and associated content.

Platforms for entering and harnessing the

dialogue that is already happening.

BRANDDESTINATION

FLASHMICROSITE

NDNAT

FLAMIC

*

* Destination always implied a

finite end without next steps,

a bit like the term “end-user”

Page 24: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Time sensitive offers designed for life-streams o Integrated into real-time experience with a sense of NOW.

o Urgency because traditional marketing campaigns (like TV progs) now can be filtered and time shifted (and even forgotten as our content collection piles up).

NB: Facebook have changed the rules...again.

Page 25: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Time sensitive offers designed for life-streams? ?

o Integrated into real-time experience with a sense of NOW.

o Urgency because traditional marketing campaigns (like TV progs) now can be filtered and time shifted (and even forgotten as our content collection piles up).

NB: Facebook have changed the rules...again.

Time sensidesigned fo?ddo Integrated into real-ti

o Urgency because trad(like TV progs) now can(and even forgotten as o

NB: Facebook have changed th

But value needs to be long-term or we create “a community of jaded fans who are only interested in the next coupon”.

iimmmmmmmmmmmmmmmee experience with a sense of NOW.

iitttttttiiiiiiiooonal marketing campaigns n bbbbbbbbbbbbeee filtered and time shifted oouuuuuuuuuuuurrrrr content collection piles up).

heee rrrrrrrrrruuuuuuuuuulllllllllleeeeeeeessssssss.........aaaaaaaagggggggggaaaaaaaaiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnn...

Peak of interest with a sharp fall.

Page 26: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

“The next phase of media, I’ve been thinking, will be after the page and after the site. Media can’t expect us to go to it all the time. Media has to come to us. Media must insinuate itself into our streams.”

Jeff Jarvis

Page 27: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Real-time eCommerce

o As retailers move closer to real-time inventory management, it increases the possibility of more widespread dynamic demand led pricing.

o Consumers can be alerted about price changes as they happen.

o They can even group together to negotiate bulk discounts.

Page 28: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

What does it means for the site owners?

More time on site but fewer page views.

Advertising analytics nightmare.8 hours = 1 pageview but 100’s of opportunities to see an ad? How can you tell which story in the stream was read and which was missed?

Decreased server costs with fewer page refreshes and DB calls as sites move from polling to real-time push.

Source: Ted Roden New York Times

Page 29: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

“a clothing retailer could identify a spike in positive chat about a celebrity that is wearing one of their apparel items, and could immediately feature that piece of clothing on their homepage and launch campaigns to a targeted audience interested in that celebrity and lifestyle. This allows the retailer to immediately maximize the new revenue opportunity, and deliver more engaging, relevant content to its customer base.”

Real-timeinsight.

The e-commerce opportunity?

Page 30: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

PubSubHubbub (PuSH) real-time syndication protocol.

FASTER, COMPUTATIONALLY EFFICIENT AND A WAY FOR SMALL PUBLISHERS TO GET INTO GOOGLE RESULTS IN REAL-TIME.

WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF US?

Publisher

Hub

Subscriber

Page 31: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
Page 32: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

If you tap into a “live-stream” of first or second hand experiences and thoughts, how can control the flow and tell

what is relevant?

Semantic personalisation of content -

filtering and showing only what is

relevant to you.

“The semantic web provides a

common framework that allows data

to be shared and reused across

application, enterprise and

community boundaries” (W3C). Recognise that the stream is

still data and “data is not the

truth” or insight.

MOST RECENT ≠ MOST MEANINGFUL

Don’t get hijacked by vocal

minority or “overly concerned”.

Page 33: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Content is rapidly pushed down the stream by

4,000 articles/videos a day.“Low quality”, high search visibility “farmed” content.

Source: Richard MacManus, RRW

Page 34: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

6

5

4

3

2

1

8

7

9

10

6

11

12

543 222222

11

now

next

over?

now

next

over?

The TiVo problem?Real-time risks focusing us too much on NOW and it is easy to miss things. What do we do with the stream in the long-term? We can be easily everwhelmed by piles of forgotten content from the day before yesterday. Real-time search tools are quick but don’t handle old results as well; while Google PageRank (link-based algorithms/citation analysis) is not necessarily the best approach to capturing real-time (often as yet unlinked) data.

Page 35: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

“Be the vehicle at the heart of the relationship,

an enabler (of services, content, utility, entertainment) and filter

(of noise, relevance, need) for customers.”

Behaviour & Role of brand.

Page 36: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Lots of people, saying lots of different things, all expecting a response, now. They’re waiting. How do you deal with

expectation culture?

Page 37: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

They’re even commenting on

your site whether you like it

(& have enabled it) or not.

Page 38: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Social business design,

a new business structure where customer

feedback is connected to business

processes “like a real-time focus group

combining technology, data and people”.

No compartmentalism of digital or PR,

advertising is about participating and

marketing is about designing products,

services and experiences.

CMO

Customer participation and design

Customer operations

Customer listening

Sources: David Armano, Dachis Group, Razorfish

Page 39: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Every action, launch etc. will create a

instant and visible digital reaction.

o PR needs to develop “public

relationships” in rapid response to

dialogue not just manage news outlets.

o Integrated into client organisations

as a combined communications and

customer relationship/service role?

Domino’s Pizza anyone?

Page 40: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Real-time has only limited applicability to someone sitting at a desk in front of a computer beyond news and dialogue,

where is the real benefit?

“Why don’t you switch off

your screen and do something

less boring instead?”

Page 41: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

honest.

Page 42: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop Internet Adoption iPhone + iTouch Users = 8x AOL Users 8 Quarters After Launch

AOL*

NTT docomo i-mode

iPhone + iTouch Netscape*

10

20

30

40

50

60

Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19

Quarters Since Launch

Su

bsc

ribe

rs (

MM

)

iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape

Desktop Internet

v 2.0 Launched 9/94

Mobile Internet

Launched 6/99

Mobile Internet

Launched 6/07

~57MM

~25MM

~7MM

Desktop Internet

Launched 12/94

~11MM

18.3 million unique mobile social network users.

65 million people use Facebook on a mobile device.

187% increase in mobile social network audience for YTD July ‘09.

Source: Mary M

eeker, Morgan Stanley, “Econom

y + Internet Trends”, October 2009; Neilsen Global M

obile – Strategies for Growth

Page 43: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Affordable contractsRemoved cost uncertainty

FLAT RATEPRICING

Higher speed, new technologyLocation Based Services

BETTERNETWORKS

Better choiceBetter GUIs, halo effect of iPhone

BETTERHANDSETS

Better choiceOptimised for mobile, influence

of Apps store & Market

BETTERCONTENT

Page 44: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

“The majority of the real-time search boom will be in its convergence with another rapidly growing industry, mobile computing.

[Offering people] real-time recommendations based on your current location using an application that aggregates information from real-time searches as well as social sites like Yelp and Urban Spoon...... local advertisements and “limited time” discounts on your mobile.”*

Social Periphery*Rob Diana

Page 45: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Physical objects in intelligent

environments

Brands as the filter and the enabler.

Ideas must be “good enough to share”

On is off/Off is onas physical and

digital worlds fuse

Social networks

Blogs, UGC & niche sites

Global Services and Communities

Communities & forumsRFID &

NearField

Barcodes, QR codes and markers

Local networks of sensors and devices

GPS, location & bespoke

sensors

Dynamic communication based on action and relevance (Ambient awareness/Social Peripheral Vision)

Mobile & mixed media applications/tools

Social Periphery & Mobile Social Networks

Context & Location as filter

Content & relationships

as intelligence

by David J. Carr davidjcarr.wordpress.comBased on Nokia’s Mobile Gateway & Jyri Engestrom

Helping us plan for now and what’s next.

Page 46: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

From palm of your hand social feed integration as standard,

to 24hr location-based content streams and

documentaries (The Grid),

Page 47: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

to third-wave mobile applications and hardware extensions to monitor anything from our finances to our health and fitness.

Page 48: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

And even extending to e-readers and over2 million iPads*.

*sold in 2 months with 5,000 bespoke Apps available already.

Page 49: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Mobile computing, content AND context

sets up new battle lines to define the future.

With unexpected

victims.

And unexpected companies

playing catch-up.

VERSUS

VERSUSVERSUS

a digression

Page 50: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

What services and content can we deliver at the

content/context cross-section?

Chain-wide localised, product-specific and cost effective marketing when the inventory in more than 70 Adidas Outlet Stores varies from store to store – and so do the special offers. Or Tesco porting its Clubcard to phones and starting to make them smarter.

Page 51: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Even playful location-based social periphery tools.

Page 52: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Big brands and entertainment properties using the Foursquare platform.

Page 53: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
Page 54: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Augmented reality moving beyond

marketing gimmick.

Page 55: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

What do these tools mean for our relationships?

a digression

Page 56: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Can we challenge 150?

a digression

Page 57: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Geographical proximityGeographical proximity

Geographical proximityGeographical proximity

<150 (Dunbar’s number)Nu

mbe

r of R

elat

ions

hips

Num

ber o

f Rel

atio

nshi

ps

<150 (Dunbar’s number)

>150 >150

>150 >150

Pre-digital society: Closer, less diverse discussion networks, more geographically clustered?

Digitally-enabled society: More diverse discussion networks, more geographically spread?

Sources: Pew Internet And Am

erican Life Project,a digression

Page 58: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

a digression

Page 59: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Mobile & (REAL)time

More live experience

More timely informationMore connections

More opportunities to meet up in the real world

Page 60: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

(REAL)time

now. live.&

#1

Page 61: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

digital experiences we participate in and use, experiences that break out into the real world.

What’s helping this happen?

Page 62: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

From mobile phones to cars and tube tickets, in a world of cheap, fast & always on

Wi-Fi, an unconnected device is unusual.

On is off/Off is on.

More live interfaces with the

real world.

Page 63: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

“A year from now basically every new phone that’s sold will have [Near Field Communication]. It’s a two-way, bio-directional RFID communication link that makes this device work as a tag or as a reader.”

Sony Ericsson’s VP of systems architecture, Håkan Djuphammar

Page 64: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Balls?

Page 65: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

a digression

Arduino & Homemade hardware hacking

Page 66: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

These sensors, technologies and devices are helping brands move from messaging to

digitally-enabled, increasingly live, real-world experiences.

Page 67: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

The shift to digital experiences enables more shared “watercooler” moments...

Page 68: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

...access to “exclusive” live events...

Page 69: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

...and even the feeling of live and unfiltered brand engagement or consumer control.

Page 70: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

65.3% report a digital experience changing their perception of a brand

97.1% report that the digital experience

has influenced purchase

24% have produced digital content in order to

enter a contest

Source: Razorfish Feed

What influences do digital experiences have on consumers?

Page 71: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

= Engagement

Engagement = Quantity or Time

Engagement = Depth & Quality

Page 72: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

even extends to changing marketing from pure comms to creating

useful, useable & delightful services/products

a digression

Page 73: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

digital retail pos

...or enabling live, real-time responsive retail POS and outdoor.

Only16% of grocery shoppers use lists. 70% of people make

their product selection at the fixture.

a digressionSources: GM

A Report 2009, ACNielsen “Actionable Shopper Insights”

Page 74: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

(REAL)time

#1

Real, live experiences and engagement

beyond advertising.

Real relationships and relevant information at the speed of now. &

Page 75: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

What could

mean for

our clients?

Page 76: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

o Audiences are mobile – we need to widen digital touch points and become the enabler & filter for people, - Help them now and help them plan for what they are doing next.

o To do this will require moving beyond a website-centric model to a distributed platform. - Enable customers to engage in the channel they prefer/have available and track them through fragmented journeys with a single identity - Serve only what’s relevant in current need state and location

o Customer feedback will be dynamic and real time – the crowd will express what it wants through its behaviour as well as communicating preferences and views. - An ‘open source’ approach should be considered, tailoring our propositions (function and content) to needs and feedback in real time

o Social CRM combining social listening tools with CRM systems tied back to company data to track influencer financial value and help us respond to their needs faster.

Page 77: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

o Customers will automatically connect with people they have something in common with, experiences are logged and shared automatically, so we’ll need to only serve up relevant content for people to make better decisions. - Personalise and aggregate their offers and promotions as part of shopping experience, make it easier for them to share a good deal and not to miss out - Deal expiry alerts in their streams, use networks to share trackable offer codes

o If everything is connected then there are increased engagement opportunities: but we need to design accordingly and appropriately.

o Can we extend communications to packaging/POS giving them a layer of digital information or utility?

o The increase in digital noise for people will mean that our brand will have a key role to carry the relationship. - Hard to compete for share of attention - Human reaction to mask out noise - We need to help them by making sure all interactions and communications have the value exchange firmly in their favour

Page 78: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

#2

& The trough isn’t that disillusioning.

The sky didn’t

fall

ff l l

Page 79: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

#2

The trough isn’t that disillusioning.

The sky didn’t

fall &

Page 80: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

“Intensifying solvency concerns about a number of the largest US-based and European financial institutions have pushed the global financial system to the brink of systemic meltdown.”

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, International Monetary Fund

12 October 2008

Page 81: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

'Spending cuts “could cause strikes on scale of 1970s”Daily Telegraph, 1 August

“Help ordinary people or we face a summer of turmoil”

Sunday Express, 1 March

Page 82: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-62006 2007 2008 2009

UK total weekly earnings growth: year on year

Source: ONS

Then this happened.

%

Christmas bonuses disappeared and wage growth turned

negative for 3 months as people “accepted reality”.

Then a cautious level of stability returned. The Chartered Institute of

Personnel & Development revised its unemployment predicitons for 2010 from

3.2m to 2.8m

Page 83: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Country / Region 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2009E 2010E

(2)

0.3%

China

USA 2.0% 0.4% -2.7% 1.5% 0.6%

Euro zone 2.7 0.7 -4.2 0.3 0.6 0.6

UK 2.6 0.7 -4.4 0.9 -0.2 0.7

13.0 9.0 8.5 9.0 1.0 0.5

India 9.4 7.3 5.4 6.4 0.0 -0.1

Russia 8.1 5.6 -7.5 1.5 -1.0 0.0

Brazil 5.7 5.1 -0.7 3.5 0.6 1.0

Developed Markets(1) 2.7 0.6 -3.4 1.3 0.4 0.7

Emerging Markets 8.3 6.0 1.7 5.1 0.2 0.4

World 5.2 3.0 -1.1 3.1 0.3 0.6

IMF Forecasts, 10/09Difference from 7/09

IMF Forecasts

Note: (1) IMF equivalent of “advanced economies”; (2) IMF equivalent of “emerging and developing economies”

Source: Mary Meeker, Morgan Stanley, “Economy + Internet Trends”, International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, 10/09.

Now-4.75

GDP Growth Forecasts even turned positive…but led by the new powerhouses of China and India.

Page 84: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

A competition to call time on the plummet.

Page 85: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Even if we might still be in the eye of the storm?

Uncertainty as we move into 2010 means we’re looking backwards more than forward.

And it is recent history that is our anchor.

Page 86: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

2009.A year of outrage...

Page 87: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

...serious moneyworries...

$4 trillion

(£2.75tn) The International

Monetary Fund (IMF)

estimate of losses from

the credit crunch.

Page 88: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

...global health scares and...

Page 89: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

...even a bit of euphoria.

But one year on and both the hype and honeymoon are fading memories.

How have we changed?

(remember that?)

Page 90: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

1. Denial

2. Anger

3. Bargaining4. Depression

5. Acceptance

Source: Kübler-Ross model

Firstly...

Page 91: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

We’re rebalancing.UK Household Saving Ratio

U.S Female, 47Resource Interactive research interviewsSecondly...

10%

8

6

4

2

0

-2200920082007200620052004

40%

are adding to emergency fund

“It has been a tremendous lesson in how to live within your means

and separate wants from needs.”

Page 92: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

“90% of the U.S. respondents said that their households had reduced spending as a result of the recession.

McKinsey Quarterly, March 2009

Page 93: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

of 18-29 year olds agree with the idea “My generation is being dealt an unfair blow because of this recession.”

a digression

Even if it was often their parents borrowing money to fuel a Generation Y spending spree.

It’s not all hairshirts and honest appraisals.

Source: Kelly Mooney, Resource Interactive; JWT 2009

Page 94: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

NASA

Kanye “I’m gonna let you finish” West

The nineties and the noughties promised us that everything would be

Page 95: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Now we won’t believe the hype or the promises,

because we know you have pay for it eventually.

Madoff

Page 96: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Eve

n t

he

pro

mis

es

of t

ech

nol

og

y ca

n f

alt

er.

“What's driving usage on the network... are things like video, or audio that keeps playing around the clock. And so we've got to get to those customers and have them recognise that they need to change their pattern, or there will be other things that they are going to have to do to reduce their usage.”

Ralph de la Vega, head of wireless at AT&T

Issues of trust & dependancy with the cloud. When Gmail went down in Feburary & September…Count the cost:

25m users, 33% affected; average of

$50 per hour lost productivity,

$415m per hour economic cost...

Page 97: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

But equally we won’t believe

because that didn’t come true either.

Page 98: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

We’ve changed our perspective to a more realistic view.

So, thirdly.

Page 99: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

#2 Deliver on our basic

promises. Creativity must

first deliver on usability,

utility and offers before

any “bells and whistles”.

#1 Less experimentation and

risk with money means we

must always, clearly show

people meaningful and

worthwhile value.

Page 100: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

61% want to be

able to scan bar codes and

access information on other

stores’ prices.

9% used a cellphone

to text message a friend about

a product while shopping.

Coupon sites have been the second-most-visited category on the Internet, behind job sites, for a year.

eMarketer May, 2009

Source: Business Week, HitW

ise, Quidco/YouGov, BIGresearch and Resource Interactive, August 2009

34% have looked

at an online review at least once

before making a purchase. 62% of UK

shoppers consult online

communities before buying.

Page 101: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Moms with teens said the internet...

Helped me save money through access to easier price comparisons, coupons, and deal alerts.

Helped me become a smarter shopper; product reviews and ratings, blogs and product information has helped me make more informed purchases..

Source: BIGresearch and Resource Interactive, August 2009

Page 102: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Halfof British consumers now buy on promotionbut it is not all about money off and discounts,

it’s about value.

Source: Mintel

Page 103: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

includes help with making purchase decisions and rediscovering lost skills so you don’t have to pay someone else to do it.

Page 104: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

If people appear to be asking more questions, but less trusting of advertising...

For businesses this means trust and transparency.

90% trust

recommendations from

the people they know.

70% trust

consumer opinions that

are posted online.

Sour

ce: N

eils

en, T

rust

in A

dver

tisin

g 20

09

Page 105: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

...but this has forced some brands to use technology and content to start talking in a less hyberbolic, more transparent and open, almost human way.

69% trust

editorial content!

70% trust

brand websites!

Sour

ce: N

eils

en, T

rust

in A

dver

tisin

g 20

09

For businesses this means trust and transparency.

Page 106: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

A new realism about technology and its effects.

Page 107: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

#2

The trough isn’t that disillusioning.

The sky didn’t

fall & ff l

l

Page 108: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

VISIBILITY

TIME

Peak of Inflated Expectations

Plateau of Productivity

Slope of Enlightenment

Trough of Disillusionment

Technology Trigger

Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards

Source: Gartner’s Hype Cycle

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“Label it and you can sell it.”- Anonymous

Remember “New Media”?

Page 111: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

The legacies of revolutions are sometimes more interesting and longer lasting.

Page 112: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Creativity

Just as

Social Media

Page 113: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
Page 114: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

“It’s real people having real conversations about real objects and ideas.”

Page 115: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

0 10 20 30

Stay in touch

Make plans with friends

Make new friends

Organise an event for a cause

Make new business contacts

Promote yourself or your work

Flirt

40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Teens

Adults

Why do people really use social networks?

But what about connecting with brands?

Sources: Pew Internet And Am

erican Life Project, Tara Hunt

Page 116: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Gurus sold a future of people worshipping brands by “friending” them and having “conversations”.

OK, but what about

connecting with

brands?

a digression

15,740 Social media experts, “gurus”,

“ninjas” & “superstars” on Twitter (+3.5x since May!)

Page 117: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Phew, there it is.

Yes 25.50%

No 74.50%

Have you ever followed a brand on Twitter?

Yes 40.10%

No 59.90%

Have you ever “friended” a brand on Facebook or MySpace?

Sources: Razorfish Feed ‘09, GigaTweet, Penn State, Perform

ics

5 million brand mentions

a day on Twitter, 150 million

brand mentions per month. 48% of those

who saw a brand mentioned

on Twitter did research on

that brand.

Page 118: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

But why? Offers. So what can we do?Source: Razorfish Feed ‘09

23.5%

43.5%

6.3%

22.7%

3.5%

0.4%

I am a current customer

Exclusive deals or offers

Other people I know are fans of the brand

Interesting or entertaining content

Other

Service, support, or product news

What is the primary reason you follow a brand on Twitter?

32.9%

36.9%

6.2%

18.2%

5.0%

0.7%

What is the primary reason you “friend” a brand?

I am a current customer

Exclusive deals or offers

Other people I know are fans of the brand

Interesting or entertaining content

Other

Service, support, or product news

Page 119: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

THEIR

BRAND

Page 120: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
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Their networks route aroundcensorship, gaps or blocks.

“People’s lives don’t revolve around your brand, they revolve around life.”

Mike Arauz

Get out of their way.

Page 122: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
Page 123: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Design our brands & services for desire paths.

Page 124: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Enable our commercial relationships in the context of their real relationships.

Page 125: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Practice true customer-centric behaviour, integrated into all business processes, not a silo or a channel, horizontal not vertical...

• You send customers to other websites.

• You measure how many peoplerefer their friends to you assuccess (Net Promoter Score).

• When budgets get tightened,you tighten operational costs.

• Your only customer servicepolicy is to do right by the customer.

• Your customers are doing thingswith your product you neverdreamed and are posting videos.

• Active influencers are adding you asfriends on social networks.

• You work with your competitorstowards better customerexperiences for all.

• You know you compete for yourcustomers’ attention with everyone.

8 Signs of Customer-centric Behaviour

Source: Tara Hunt

Page 126: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

...and throughout the entire consumer decision-making process.

On-going exposure

Start with a shortlist of brands/solutions

Increase in number of brands/solutions being considered. Attention paid to advertising, WOM & online research

with information gathering key

Consumer builds expectations based on experience to inform their next decision journey

Active & Passive LoyaltyActive Loyalty fuels advocacy but

Passive is a larger audience

Closure & the moment of decision

Source: McKinsey

Page 127: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Social program

development (strategy)

Social program

integration(operations)

Social program

management(execution)

Social program

measurement(analysis)

Page 128: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Send

Send

Blogs, UGC & niche sites

Enable, encourage

and optimise for sharing

Communities & forums

Social networks

Social networks & personalised content pages

Mobile and video sharing sites

Websites & email

Tools, widgets& apps

Videos & content

Ideas & assets

Tribe 1

Tribe 2

Tribe 3

Online ads, IM & promo links

Listen Understand Engage Measure, React & Respond

Use paid for media to additionally

stimulate and spread

Track results and optimise, monitor and

triage for react and respond conversations

Engage via tribes’ preferred platforms with

multiple interfaces

Create a relevant and interesting

Social Object

Segment target into tribes, give them something to join

Listen to what the target is doing in the real web

and social arena

And yes, social program management (execution) can be in the form of a campaign.

As long as it is “good enough to share”.

Page 129: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

100 social “agents” who reviewedFord’s new Fiesta through Twitter, blogs, video, and events

4.3 million YouTube views 500,000+ Flickr views3 million+ Twitter impression50,000 interested potential customers, 97% don’t own a Ford currently.

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“Crowdsourcing is a neologism for the act of taking tasks traditionally performed by an employee or contractor, and outsourcing them to a group of people or community, through an “open call” to a large group of people (a crowd) asking for contributions...The term has become popular with businesses, authors, and journalists as shorthand for the trend of leveraging the mass collaboration enabled by Web 2.0 technologies to achieve business goals.*

*Definition Crowdsourced from Wikipedia

What is Crowdsourcing?

Page 133: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

1Company has a problem.

2Company broadcasts problem online.

3Crowd asked to give solutions. 4

Crowd submits their solutions.

5Crowd vetsthe solutions, company gains advertising.

6Company rewards the winners and gains PR.

7Company owns winning (and non-winning) solutions.

8Company profits from increased profile and IP.

Source: Daren C. Brabham

One view of crowdsourcing “success”.

Page 134: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
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More sites, more crowds, more competitions,more innovation?

Page 137: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

The crowd without the expertise or the answer.

Individuals with the expertise & the answer.

Problem broadcast to an increasing number of people

Problem broadcast to an increasing number of people

Page 138: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

But Wikipedia is crowdsourcing and that works great?

Page 139: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

“The Trouble with of Crowdsourcing”

How do you keep a secret when someone’s life depends on it?

a digression

Page 140: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

“I find the term ‘crowdsourcing’ incredibly irritating. Any company that thinks it’s going to build a site by outsourcing all the work to its users not only disrespects the users but completely misunderstands what it should be doing. Your job is to provide a structure for your users to collaborate, and that takes a lot of work.”

“One of my rants is against the term ‘crowdsourcing’, which I think is a vile, vile way of looking at that world. This idea that a good business model is to get the public to do your work for free. That’s just crazy. It disrespects the people. It’s like you're trying to trick them into doing work for free.”

Jimmy Wales, founder of Wikipedia

Page 141: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Wikipedia is not a crowd, it is “a community… a dedicated group of a few hundred volunteers.”

A platform for collaboration...

Page 142: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

...thrive when “reputation (of participants) is a critical component of the service mechanism.

The reputation of participants will derive from the quantity (how much, how often) and quality (how useful) of their contributions.

Accreditation (of content) is provided by experts and by the community. Recent, relevant content regarded highly by participants with a good reputation becomes the most visible.”

Made by Many

Collaborative Platforms...

Page 143: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Be an advocate of them, so they become advocates of you.

Page 144: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

These “crowdsourcing” platforms can engage fans or create fans through discussion or consumer collaboration

but people can see throughmanipulation.(and yet another photo upload competition.)

Page 145: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Crowdsourcing support and marketing in return for low prices.

Page 146: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Crowdsourcing where a Streetview car can’t go. low prices.

Page 147: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Channeling your global fans’ passion to be part of something

larger and more engaging.(Sour, Hibi No Neiro)

Page 148: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Crowdsourcing ≠ something for nothing.

It’s a creating a platform to share value.

INDIVIDUALS SMALL GROUPS NETWORKS

A reason to share

A reason to share

Page 149: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

#2

& It’s not technology that’s exciting, it’s

the real reasons why you do it.

People need reasons to pay attention to

brands and extra value to restore lost trust.

Page 150: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

(plus a few digressions)

[Part 2]

Page 151: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

#3

Looking after what’s local.

Going beyond greenwash. &

Page 152: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

#4

↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A B Aor We’re all Playful.

Developing world leading the game. &

Page 153: 2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

Part 2 to follow...

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