2010 midterm election
DESCRIPTION
2010 Midterm Election. What happened?. 2010 Midterm. 60+ GOP seat gain in US House 6 Seat GOP Gain in US Senate 11 state leg. Changed GOP; 7 Governors to GOP. RESULTS. 2010 Midterm. How interpret? Mandate for GOP programs? Referendum on Obama? Voters looking back in anger at economy?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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2010 Midterm ElectionWhat happened?
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2010 MidtermRESULTS
60+ GOP seat gain in US House
6 Seat GOP Gain in US Senate
11 state leg. Changed GOP; 7 Governors to GOP
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2010 MidtermWhat trends?
Does the Tea Party really exist?
How interpret?
◦Mandate for GOP programs?
◦Referendum on Obama?
◦Voters looking back in anger at economy?
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Electoral context different in Washington
Obama net negative nationally
Obama net positive in WA, CA, OR
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Electoral context different in Washington
Republican Favorability near par w/ Dems nationally
Republicans viewed far less favorably than Dems on West Coast
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Electoral context different in Washington
Your vote express support for Obama, opposition to Obama, or Obama not a factor
Graph shows “support Obama” + “not a factor” as No
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The economy, stupid. And health care. Outside of the west.
Economy dominant everywhere
Huge increase over 2006
Any year, voters punish incumbents
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Voter evaluations of the economy
201015% family situation
“better” (60% Dem) 9% natl economy
“excellent” or “good” (77% Dem)
37% economy “poor” (68% GOP)
200630% family situation
“better” (71% GOP)49% natl economy
“excellent” or “good” (70% GOP)
13% economy “poor” (85% Dem)
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Tea Party
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No such thing as a Tea Party
Republicans
◦92% strong disapprove Congress
◦94% vote GOP in House races
◦13% blame Bush for economy
◦Older, male, educated, affluent, registered GOP
“Tea Party”
◦90% strong disapprove Congress
◦92%◦5% blame Bush for
economy◦Older, male, affluent,
registered GOP◦Hands of social
programs
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No such thing as a Tea Party
Tea Party (?) 2010
◦ Older, affluent(-ish) voters angry at Obama about economy
◦ 12% under 30; 14% 30-39 (majority D)
◦ Only 3% first time voters 45% D, 43% R
2006, 2008
◦ Younger, less affluent voters angry at Bush about economy
◦ 18% under 30; 18% 30-39 (majority D)
◦ 11% first time voters in 2008 69% D, 30% R
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Mandate?
Most important issue facing the country today?
Afghanistan, immigration in single digits
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Mandate?
What is the highest priority for the new Congress?
40% “reduce deficit” (65% R)
37% “spend to create jobs” (68% D)
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Surge and Decline: President’s party gain ‘on year,’ Lose in midterm. Avg= 24 seat loss in midterm
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It Takes Seats to Lose Seats: 2010 looks like 1994, 1974,1946, 1938…. (but worse)
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Public opinion after elections2010 weakest of weak mandates
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Public opinion after elections2010 less about Obama than 1994 about Clinton, 2006 about Bush
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2010 MidtermWhy surge and decline?
◦Presidential elections higher turnout
◦Many voters mobilized by presidential elections stay home 2 years later
2010 ->40% 88 million2008 ->62% 133 million2006 ->40% 86 million2004 ->60% 124 million2002 ->40% 80 million2000 ->54% 107 million1998 ->38% 75 million
Not many voters changing their votes…it’s who shows up
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Marginal Dems Lost
Marginal seats = moderates
Dem more ‘cohesive’
GOP caucus also?
Greater polarization
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GOP Gains larger than ‘expected’
Forecasting models Under-predicted 2010 GOP gains
Why?
Economy, presidential approval, ‘generic ballot’ not enough◦ Turnout?◦ fundraising?
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A curious bit about pollingRepublican vote over-estimated in close Senate races
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How did 2010 play out West?
2010 Midterm in US 2010 Midterm in WA
The Economy East of Rockies, huge
GOP gains +6 GOP US Senate +55 GOP US House
Limited referendum on Obama Ltd. angst about health
care
The Economy◦ West of the Rockies,
different story No Senate change +6 GOP US House
◦ Referendum on economy Not much care about
health care
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Trends in WashingtonEvidence of slight GOP gain in Party Identification
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GOP Gains in WA State Leg.Not on par with 1994
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Steady decline in voter approvalWashington Poll data
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Decline of economy, rise of issueWashington Poll data…several D seats 2006 due to Iraq
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Least popular, most popularWashington Poll, 2010….few have heard of McKenna
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What about 2012?
Economic Recovery No Recovery
Presidents clobbered in midterm who won
◦ FDR 1940, ‘44◦ Truman 1948◦ Reagan 1984◦ Clinton 1996
Presidents (party) who lost
◦ IKE/GOP 1960◦ LBJ/Dems 1968◦ Carter/Dems 1980◦ Bush I 1992