2010 Primary Season 2010 Primary Season RecapRecap

An HEG Presentationwww.hegllc.org

OverviewOverview

The 2010 Primary election was a high profile election that featured several current or former elected officials running for a different office

The Gubernatorial Campaign featured a total of 14 candidates, 7 for each party

Due to the similarities in experience and number of candidates on both sides, this Primary can be viewed as a solid predictor of the General Election, all things equal

July 20July 20thth Gubernatorial Election Gubernatorial Election1,075,966 ballots were cast in the

Gubernatorial campaigns across parties680,499 or 63.2% of these ballots were

Republican395,467 or 36.8% of these ballots were

DemocratDemocratic performance was 58.1% that

of Republican

July 20July 20thth Senate Election Senate Election910,683 persons voted in the election for

the US Senate. 558,298 or 61.3% voted on the

Republican ballot 352,385 or 38.7% voted on the Democrat

ballotDemocratic performance was 63.1% that

of Republicans

August 10August 10thth Primary Runoff Primary Runoff

There were four statewide offices with a Primary Runoff on the Republican ballot (Governor, Attorney General, Insurance Commissioner and Public Service Commissioner) and one on the Democratic ballot

August 10August 10thth Primary Runoff- Notes Primary Runoff- NotesEvery Republican statewide office in the

Runoff had a higher turnout than any Democratic statewide race in the Primary.

679,471 votes were cast in the two statewide elections with the highest turnout (Republican Governor and Democratic SOS)

85.1% of the turnout voted in the Republican Primary, 14.9% in the Democratic

The FulcrumThe Fulcrum The table below looks at the Primary

turnout in the 13 counties with 50,000 or more African Americans (2000 Census)

County Republican Ballots Democratic Ballots Difference (R to D) RegionCobb 60529 23164 37365 Metro AtlantaClayton 4775 19343 -14568DeKalb 23513 59076 -35563Fulton 42407 53944 -11537Gwinnett 60278 17479 42799Bibb 9423 10318 -895 Middle GeorgiaBaldwin 2072 2667 -595Dougherty 3686 8946 -5260Hancock 70 2222 -2152Lowndes 5154 2946 2208Chatham 16725 11342 5383 CoastalRichmond 6852 7798 -946Muscogee 6125 6993 -868 SouthernTotal 241609 226238 15371

The Fulcrum Primary RunoffThe Fulcrum Primary Runoff The table below looks at the Primary

Runoff turnout in the 13 counties with 50,000 or more African Americans (2000 Census)

County Republican Ballots Democratic Ballots Difference (R to D) RegionCobb 54898 4157 50741Clayton 4021 5109 -1088DeKalb 20721 14215 6506Fulton 40460 16841 23619Gwinnett 55270 3119 52151Bibb 6631 2312 4319Baldwin 1653 654 999Dougherty 2606 2639 -33Hancock 61 1345 -1284Lowndes 4488 711 3777Chatham 11305 2664 8641 CoastalRichmond 6638 2200 4438Muscogee 5136 2283 2853 SouthernTotal 213888 58249 155639

Metro Atlanta

Middle Georgia

ObservationsObservationsMore Republican ballots were cast than

Democratic ones in these key counties in both elections

These counties only represented 35.5% of the Republican ballots cast in the Primary while they represented more than half (57.2%) of all the Democratic ballots cast.

These counties represented 36.9% of Republican ballots in the runoff, while they again represented more than half (57.85%) of all Democratic ballots.

ConclusionsConclusionsGiven the politically polarized

environment and the various partisan approaches, there will be only a few swing voters

The races therefore will focus simply on turnout. Given both the Primary and the Primary Runoff numbers, Republican candidates will be heavily favored to win every statewide election.

RecommendationsRecommendations

TurnoutGwinnett County will be a key in the

election (http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/deal-handel-battle-till-

589315.html)

Democrats must increase turnout in the targeted counties. Key task: Turnout

Republicans must maintain the relative performance in the key counties. Key task: Suppression

CitationsCitationsPrimary Election Turnout (overall and by county):

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/

Population Data: http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/GCTTable?_bm=n&_lang=en&mt_name=DEC_2000_PL_U_GCTPL_ST2&format=ST-2&_box_head_nbr=GCT-PL&ds_name=DEC_2000_PL_U&geo_id=04000US13