2010 update of GCOS IP in

support of UNFCCC Paul Mason and Stephan Bojinski

GCOS Steering CommitteeSeptember 2010

2010 Update of GCOS Implementation Plan

Draft considered at UNFCCC COP15 in Copenhagen

Open community review 13 November 2009 – 31 January 2010

450 comments received

One large expert meeting, 4 task team meetings

Finalized on 31 August 2010 and published

Submitted to UNFCCC for COP16

Document objectives as in 2004 ---but more fully dealt with

Characterise the state of the global climate system and its variability;

Monitor the forcing of the climate system, including both natural and anthropogenic contributions;

Support the attribution of the causes of climate change;

Support the prediction of global climate change;

Enable projection of global climate change information down to regional and local scales; and

Ensure the availability of information important in impact assessment and adaptation, and for the assessment of risk and vulnerability, including the characterisation of extreme events;

What is new and what should the Steering committee consider advice on? ECV list changes and challenges

Impacts, habitats and biodiversity

Additional focus on reference and super site networks

Engagement of national scale adaptation and impact needs

The need for GCOS to work efficiently and fairly with partner programmes and observing systems --- in seeking to progress an IP of increasing scope

Taking forwards a plan with major costs at a time of economic stress

Encouraging long term ecosystem records with monitoring to “climate” standards

GCOS Essential Climate Variables (50 ECVs)

Priority list of variables to be observed systematically Criteria:

Global observations feasible (practical, cost-effective) High impact on needs of UNFCCC, climate research (WCRP), climate change assessments (IPCC)

Domain Essential Climate Variables

Atmospheric(over land,sea andice)

Surface: Air temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure, Surface radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour.

Upper-air:Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties.

Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane, Other long-lived greenhouse gases, Ozone and Aerosol, supported by their precursors.

Oceanic

Surface: Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea Ice, Current, Ocean colour, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Phytoplankton

Sub-surface: Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Oxygen, Tracers.

Terrestrial

River discharge, Water use, Groundwater, Lakes, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Permafrost, Ice sheets, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Above-ground biomass, Soil carbon, Fire disturbance, Soil moisture.

Reference and super sites

Some quite specific networks eg GRUAN --- but collocation is key objective

The multi-community challenge of super sites

How to best deal with extra variables that are practical at such sites

A capacity building component

2010 Update of GCOS Implementation Plan: Cost estimates

Moving from 0.6B in 2004 to 2.5B in 2010?

Feedback from network operators gave cost increases c.f. 2004 figures of typically x2

Satellites also have extra missions including the addition of limb sounding missions

The national scale networks were not previously included.

The national scale “adaptation” and impact assessement networks Costs refer to developing countries achieving

developed country network densities

Networks are largely the basic meteorological, hydrological and coastal observations

How can and should GCOS work with partners to seek this very large level of improvement in developing countries

What planning document will and might follow

Satellite supplement update planned for Jan 2011

An in-situ equivalent would show balance eg re network densities and accuracies

Such a publication would need high observing system partner involvement