2011-09-14 risk management and operational consequences...ltc einar eliassen. 2011-09-14 risk...

2011-09-14 Risk Management and operational consequences

1Ref: for example project title / unit / yyyy.mm.dd 12011-09-14 Risk assessment and operational consequences

LTC Einar Eliassen

22011-09-14 Risk assessment and operational consequences

PRESENTATION AIM

The overall aim of this presentation is to contribute to effective risk management during operations.


during operations.

SCOPE• Explain the principles of Risk

Management (RM).• Describe the RM cycle.• Understand the RM ‘rules’.


• Understand the RM ‘rules’.• Describe important inputs to assess risk

“on the road”/traffic safety.• Understand consequences of inadequate

RM

AGENDA• INTRODUCTION.• RISK MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES.• RISK MANAGEMENT CYCLE “THE FIVE STEPS”

– IDENTIFY RISKS– ASSESS RISKS


– ASSESS RISKS– DEVELOP PLANS– IMPLEMENT CONTROLS– MONITOR SITUATION.

• RISK MANAGEMENT RULES.• ASSESSING RISKS IN TRAFFIC,

CONSEQUENCES OF INADEQUATE RM• SUMMARY.

BACKGROUND - MODEL

Management

Foundation

for

errors

Mistakes/

errors

Organizational

factors

Individual / team actions

BarriersWork tasks procedures


decisions

Organizational

processes

Foundation

for

violation

of rules

Violation of

rules

Protective systems/equip-ment etc.

Maintenance, org, facilities

Recourses, knowledge/skills, latent errors

SAFETY ROLE IN RISK MANAGEMENT

• It is usually the responsibility of the G3 or S3 to integrate risk management procedures into every operation.

• It is a five step process which starts in the


• It is a five step process which starts in the planning phase and continues through the process.

• It is the commander’s responsibilities to execute your risk management activities.

SAFETY ROLE IN RISK MANAGEMENT

Commanders:

• Ensure battle operating systems function to standard in order to prevent human error, material failures, and reduce adverse.


failures, and reduce adverse.

• Environmental effects.• Establish risk management policy with realistic

objectives and priorities.

• Ensure integration of risk management into plans and execution of all operations.

SAFETY ROLE IN RISK MANAGEMENT• Make risk decisions at the appropriate level.• Select and enforce control measures for the most

severe and probable hazards.

• Evaluate the effects of control measures in reducing


• Evaluate the effects of control measures in reducing risks.

• Determine the effectiveness of control measures and make necessary changes to guidance and controls. ensure that changes are fed back to subordinates as guidance for future missions and SOP’s.

SAFETY ROLE IN RISK MANAGEMENTThe unit safety officers responsibility is to:• Assist unit personnel in the conduct of risk

management.

• Conduct training in the practice of risk


• Conduct training in the practice of risk management.

• Review risk management applications for lessons learned and improvements.


DON’T TAKE

UNNECESSARY

CHANCES

WHY RISK ASSESSMENT?


PRINCIPLES (1)

What is Risk Management? • Risk Management is a logic-based, common

sense approach to– making decisions regarding the occurrence and


– making decisions regarding the occurrence and possible outcomes of future adverse events.

• Useful decision tool

PRINCIPLES (2)

Why use Risk Management?• It promotes a proactive approach to managing

risks rather than a reactive response or crisis/consequence management.


• Risk Management enables key decision makers to maximise operational capabilities while minimising the risk to the success of the operation

• Should be driven by the situation NOT the individual!

PRINCIPLES (3)

When to use Risk Management?

• Whenever the consequence of failure or risk to individuals is unacceptable.


Risk Management is not a science; it does not provi de leaders with a precise course of action but it is however a n important decision support tool that can be fully integrated into standard planning procedures.

individuals is unacceptable.• Singular unusual, complex or dangerous event?• Dangerous or complex process or activity that extends

over a long period of time.

THE CHALLENGING BALANCE


SafetyRisk

Risk assessments

Standards, manuals, regulations, rules, SOPs etc

THE RISK MANAGEMENT CYCLE

Identify Risks

(STEP 1) Assess Monitor


Assess Risks

(STEP 2)

Develop Plans

(STEP 3)

Implement Controls(STEP 4)

Monitor Situation(STEP 5)

STEP 1 – IDENTIFY RISKS

Techniques:

Key decision makers and participants must look to i dentify any events or conditions that may impact and reduce the capabi lity to accomplish the assigned tasks or that might impair or prevent the desired objectives being reached


• Brainstorming• Risk Interviews• Expert Opinion• Historical Analysis• Personal Experience• Wide level of input• Common understanding of

issues

STEP 2 – ASSESS RISKS (1)

Mishap probabilityLikely Probably May Unlikely

4 3 2 1

EXAMPLE


4 3 2 1

Severity

Critical 4 EXTREME HIGH MED

Serious 3 HIGH MED MED

Moderate 2 HIGH MEDLOW

Minor 1 MED MED

STEP 2 – ASSESS RISKS (2)

Decide the scores then rate the Risks as follows:• GREENGREEN – The risk is manageable within current means and capabilities, no further action required.


capabilities, no further action required.• AMBERAMBER –– The risk is manageable within current means and capabilities, but must be continually monitored.• REDRED – The probability or the impact are too high. Action must be taken to either reduce the probability of occurrenc e or the likely impact.• BLACKBLACK – The risk has both a probability that is too high a nd impact which is too great. Action must be taken to both re duce the probability of occurrence and the likely impact.

STEP 3 – DEVELOP PLANS (1)

•• ELIMINATEELIMINATE – Action is taken to ensure that either the

No operation or event will ever be risk free!Key decision makers must take steps to eliminate unnecessary risk or to at least take steps to manag e those risks that cannot be eliminated.


•• ELIMINATEELIMINATE – Action is taken to ensure that either the risk cannot happen or if it does it has no relevant impact.

•• REDUCEREDUCE – Action is taken to proactively reduce the probability of the risk occurring.

•• MITIGATEMITIGATE – Action is taken by putting plans in place that will lessen the impact of the risk if it does occur.

STEP 3 – DEVELOP PLANS (2)•• TRANSFERTRANSFER – If possible, the risk can be transferred to

somebody else who is better placed to either mitigate or accept the risk. Such transfer should not take place if there is NOT a confidence that the risk will be dealt with appropriately.


•• ACCEPTACCEPT – If the risk has a low rating GREEN/AMBER it maybe possible to accept the risk and take no further action. A risk may also be accepted if the action planned required to mitigate or transfer the risk has a greater impact than if the risk actually occurred

STEP 4 – IMPLEMENT CONTROLS

• Integrated into existing plans and training requirements.

Key decision makers must establish controls that eliminate, reduce risks or mitigate their effects.


requirements.• All staff (i.e. G-3, S-3) are aware of the

potential risks and the control measures of risks.

• When a countermeasure is implemented, care must be taken that new secondary risks are not created as a subsequence.

STEP 5 – MONITOR SITUATION

– Enforce controls and working practices

For successful implementation, regular reviews of t he current situation and associated risks are required .


– Review at regular intervals or after significant events

– Develop new plans and actions

– Implement them!

Inadequate Risk Management?


RISK MANAGEMENT RULES - SUMMARY

• Integrate Risk Management into the planning process.

• Make risk decisions at the appropriate level.


level.• Be proactive, not reactive, communicate,

think and plan ahead.• Accept no unnecessary risks.

BREAK


ASSESSING RISKS – ROAD SAFETY

• Safety management system is implemented• Use the same 5-step model as described:

– Step 1: Identify/look for hazards.– Step 2: Decide who might be harmed.


– Step 2: Decide who might be harmed.– Step 3: Evaluate the risk and decide whether

existing precautions are adequate or more should be done.

– Step 4: Record your findings.– Step 5: Review your assessment and revise it if

necessary.

EVALUATE THE RISKS (1)

• The driver– Competency -are you satisfied that your drivers

are competent and capable of doing their work in a way that is safe for them and other soldiers, officers and civilians?


soldiers, officers and civilians?– Training - are you satisfied that your drivers are

properly trained?– Fitness and health - are you satisfied that your

drivers are physically and mentally fit to drive safely and not put themselves or others at risk?

• The vehicle– Suitability - are you satisfied that vehicles are fit for the

purpose for which they are used?– Condition - are you satisfied that vehicles are

maintained in a safe and fit condition?– Safety equipment - are you satisfied that safety

EVALUATE THE RISKS (2)


– Safety equipment - are you satisfied that safety equipment is properly fitted and maintained?

– Safety critical information - Are you satisfied that drivers have access to information that will help them reduce risks?

– Ergonomic considerations - Are you satisfied that drivers’ health, and possibly safety, is not being put at risk, i.e. from inappropriate seating position or driving posture?

EVALUATE THE RISKS (3)• The operation

– Routes - do you plan routes thoroughly?– Scheduling - are operations schedules, plans etc

realistic?– Time - are you satisfied that sufficient time is allowed


– Time - are you satisfied that sufficient time is allowed to complete operations safely?

– Distance - are you satisfied that drivers will not be put at risk from fatigue caused by driving excessive distances without appropriate breaks?

– Weather conditions - are you satisfied that sufficient consideration is given to adverse weather conditions, such as snow or high winds, when planning operations?

OPERATIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF INADEQUATE RISK MANAGEMENT

• Accidents and mishaps will occur.• Reduced efficiency, waste of time, money and other

resources.• Operations will fail or be unsuccessful.• Days lost due to injury or failure.


• Days lost due to injury or failure.• Risk of work-related ill health.• Stress and reduced morale.• Increased need for investigation and paperwork.• Lost time due to work rescheduling.• Vehicles unserviceable.• Increased running costs due to inadequate driving

standards.

SUMMARY• Commanders initiative and commitment!• Integrate the RM-cycle in all planning

procedures.


procedures.• Train RM on appropriate levels.• Know the RM-principles and USE RM

whenever necessary!

2011-09-14 risk management and operational consequences...ltc einar eliassen. 2011-09-14 risk...

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