2011 s i2011 spring flood outlookflood...
TRANSCRIPT
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2011 S i2011 Spring Flood OutlookFlood Outlook• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Manitoba Water StewardshipManitoba Water Stewardship
Jan 24, 2011
Hydrologic Forecast Centre
January 24, 2010
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Red River Comparison of 2011 and 1997 ConditionsRed River Comparison of 2011 and 1997 Conditions
2011 1997 Soil Moisture Index Extreme: 2nd Highest Since
1948 Moderate: Slightly Above Average
S C f Mid 70 100 H i t i 80 120 H i t i USASnow Cover as of Mid January
70 – 100 mm: Heaviest in USA
80 -120 mm: Heaviest in USA
Expected SWE in Early April
125 mm – Median 165 mm – Upper Decile
175 -225 mm
Soil Frost Moderate ModerateSoil Frost Moderate Moderate
Jan 22 Flow @ Emerson 4,000 cfs 900 cfs
Jan 22 Flow @ Headingly
3,000 cfs 460 cfs
Jan 22 Level @ James Av
5.9 feet 2.1 feet
River Ice Thickness (Sparse Data)
1.5 – 2.0 feet 1.5 – 2.0 feet
Melt Conditions Unknown Initial Melt in March; Rapid melt mid April
Shellmouth Reservoir; Jan 22nd
1398.80 feet 1395.32 feet
S i W th U k Bli dSpring Weather Conditions
Unknown Blizzard
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Red River Forecast Summary
Favourable weather conditions: Flood similar to 2001
Average weather conditions: Flood similar to 2009
Unfavourable weather conditions: Flood similar to 1997
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Pembina River Forecast Summary
Favourable weather conditions: Minor flooding
Average weather conditions: Flood similar to 1979
Unfavourable weather conditions: Flood higher than 2009g
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Roseau River Forecast Summary
Favourable weather conditions: Minor flooding
Average weather conditions: Flood similar to 2009
Unfavourable weather conditions: Flood similar to 2002
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Assiniboine River Forecast Summary
Favourable weather conditions: Minor flooding
Average weather conditions: Flooding from Millwood to Portage
Unfavourable weather conditions: Flooding fromShellmouth to Brandon similar to 1976 level or higherg
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Souris River Forecast Summary
Favourable weather conditions: Flooding similar to 2009
Average weather conditions: Flooding similar to 1974
Unfavourable weather conditions: Flooding greater than g g1974 but less than record flood of 1976
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Interlake and Eastern ManitobaFavourable weather conditions: Minor flooding in many areas
Average weather conditions: Overland flooding in most areasFlooding on Fisher River close to 2006Some flooding on Brokenhead, Whitemud, and Icelandic RiversRecord high levels on ShoalRecord high levels on Shoal Lakes
Unfavourable weather conditions: Flooding in most areas
Fisher River similar to 1986 floodSerious Shoal Lake flooding
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Westlake, Dauphin, The Pas Regions
F bl h di i Mi fl di i lFavourable weather conditions: Minor flooding in most low-lying areas
Average weather conditions: Flooding possible onAverage weather conditions: Flooding possible on many streams such as Whitemud, Turtle, Swan and Carrot Rivers as well Saskatchewan RiverSaskatchewan Riverat The Pas
Unfavourable weather conditions: Flooding likely on g ymany streams with near record flows and levels – 1974 or larger flood could occur at The Pas
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Detailed forecast (Text and Charts) available on the Manitoba Water
Stewardship website:
http://www.gov.mb.ca/waterstewardship/floodinfo/index.html