2011world food outlook

8/3/2019 2011world Food Outlook

1/119

Food Outlook Global Market Analysis

global information and early warning system on food and agricultureGIEWS

International prices of most agricultural commodities have increased in recentmonths, some sharply. The FAO Food Price index has gained 34 points since theprevious Food Outlook report in June, averaging 197 points in October, only 16points short from its peak in June 2008. The upward movements of prices wereconnected with several factors, the most important of which were a worseningof the outlook for crops in key producing countries, which is likely to require largedraw downs of stocks and result in tighter global supply and demand balances in

2010/11. Another leading factor has been the weakening of the United States Dollar(US Dollar) from mid-September, which continues to sustain the prices of nearly allagricultural and non-agricultural traded commodities. The increase in internationalprices of food commodities, all of which accruing in the second half of 2010, isboosting the overall food import bill in 2010 closer to the peak reached in 2008.

The pressure on prices to rise was rst felt in the cereal market, most notablyfor wheat and barley, in August. This prompted FAO to call for an extraordinarymeeting on 24 September 2010 to discuss the underlying causes and possibleremedies. The meeting clearly identied the importance of reliable and up-to-date information on crop supply and demand to cope with unexpecteddevelopments in world markets. More transparency and a better understandingof the role of commodity futures markets and government responses were alsoviewed as necessary to address price volatility. The full report of the meeting isincluded in the Special Feature section of this issue of Food Outlook.

Amid fears of a repeat of the price surge experienced in 2008, FAO expectssupplies of major food crops in 2010/11 to be more adequate than two yearsago, mainly because of much larger reserves. The fact that supplies of rice,wheat and white maize, the most important staple food crops in many vulnerablecountries, are also more ample lessens the risk of a repeat of the 2007/08 crisisin the current season. Nonetheless, following a series of unexpected downwardrevisions to crop forecasts in several major producing countries, world prices

have risen alarmingly and at a much faster pace than in 2007/08.

Attention is now turning to plantings for the next (2011/12) marketing season.Given the expectation of falling global inventories, the size of next years cropswill be critical in setting the tone for stability in international markets. Formajor cereals, production must expand substantially to meet utilization and toreconstitute world reserves and farmers are likely to respond to the prevailingstrong prices by expanding plantings. Cereals, however, may not be the onlycrops farmers will be trying to produce more of, as rising prices have also madeother commodities attractive to grow, from soybeans to sugar and cotton.This could limit individual crop production responses to levels that would beinsufcient to alleviate market tightness. Against this backdrop, consumers mayhave little choice but to pay higher prices for their food. With the pressure onworld prices of most commodities not abating, the international communitymust remain vigilant against further supply shocks in 2011 and be prepared.

Market summaries 3-12

Market assessments 13-60Cereals 12Wheat 13Coarse grains 19Rice 24Cassava 30Oilseeds, oils and meals 36Sugar 43Meat and meat products 47Milk and milk products 51Fish and shery products 54

Special features 61-69 Wheat Rust: A growing threatto world food security 61Strengthening market signalsfor global price discovery 63 Report of the ExtraordinaryIntersessional Meeting of theIntergovernmental Groups onGrains and Rice 68

Statistical appendix tables 70-105

Market indicators 106-118Developments in the futures 106Ocean freight rates 111Implied volatilities 112Food import bills 114

The FAO price indices 116

TABLE OF CONTENTS

100

170

240

310

380

2009 2010

2002-2004=100

Dairy

Oils & Fats

Cereals

Sugar

Meat

OSAJJMAMFJDNO

FAO Food Price Indices(October 2009 - October 2010)


2/119

The Food Outlook report is a product of the FAO Trade and Markets Division. It is written by a team of economists, whose namesand contacts appear under their respective market summary contributions. The report beneted from research support by manystaff, namely, Claudio Cerquiglini, Julie Claro, Barbara Ferraiolo, Berardina Forzinetti, David Mancini, Patrizia Mascian, MarcoMilo, Shirley Mustafa, Fiorella Picchioni, Turan Rahimzadeh, Barbara Senfter and Stefania Vannuccini.

Special thanks go to Rita Ashton for compiling the report and overall administrative support, as well as to Claudio Cerquiglini,for preparing the charts and statistical tables. Additionally, the team is grateful to Adrianna Gabrielli and Nancy Hart for theireditorial assistance.


3/119

3

Unexpected production shortfalls driven by weatherevents negatively inuenced the outlook for globalcereal supply in the early months of the 2010/11marketing season from July to October. Rarelyhave markets exhibited this level of uncertainty andsudden turns in such a brief period of time. Worldcereal production this year, which is currently putat 2 216 million tonnes, is 2 percent below theprevious years level and, although it represents thethird largest crop on record, it is 63 million tonnesless than the forecast reported in the June 2010Food Outlook. Most of the downward revision,involving wheat and coarse grains, following cutsin production in major grain producing countriesin the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)and disappointing yields in the EU, Canada and theUnited States.

As production numbers were trimmed, policyresponses in the form of export restrictions bysome countries also contributed to anxiety inworld markets. International prices surged rapidly,renewing worries over the tightening cereal supply

and demand balance. In recent weeks, developmentsin other food markets and the slide in the US Dollarhave further underpinned cereal prices and volatility.

Against this background, the size of next yearsharvest becomes increasingly critical. For stocks tobe replenished and prices to return to more normallevels, large production expansions are needed in2011, especially for wheat and major coarse grains.

2008/09 2009/10estim.

2010/11fcast

Change2010/11

over2009/10

million tonnes %

WORLD BALANCE

Production 2 285.5 2 263.4 2 216.4 -2.1

Trade 2 281.3 273.6 267.3 -2.3

Total utilization 2 181.8 2 226.0 2 253.8 1.3

Food 1 027.6 1 040.5 1 056.6 1.5

Feed 758.0 761.1 764.0 0.4

Other uses 396.2 424.3 433.2 2.1

Ending stocks 520.4 552.4 512.5 -7.2

SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS

Per caput food consumption:

World (kg/year) 152.1 152.2 152.7 0.3

LIFDC (Kg/year)3 155.9 155.9 156.5 0.4

World stock-to-use ratio (%) 23.4 24.5 22.5

Major exporters stock-to-disappearance ratio (%)

17.8 17.7 14.9

FAO cereal price index(2002-2004=100)

2008 2009 2010Jan-Oct

Change: Jan-Oct 2010

over

Jan-Oct 2009%

238 174 173 -1

World cereal market at a glance 1

1 Rice in milled equivalent2 Trade data refer to exports based on a July/June marketing season for wheat andcoarse grains and on a January/December marketing season for rice3 Low-Income Food-Decit Countries

Cereal production, utilization and stocks

300

400

500

600

700

800

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

10/1108/0906/0704/0502/0300/01

Million tonnes Million tonnes

fcast

Stocks (right axis)

Production (left axis) Utilization (left axis)

Contact persons:

Abdolreza AbbassianPhone: +39-06-57053264E.mail: [email protected] RacionzerPhone: +39-06-57052853E.mail: [email protected]


4/119

4

World wheat markets have undergone majorturbulence in 2010/11, stemming largelyfrom unexpected production shortfalls due tounfavourable weather conditions in a number ofmajor producing countries, the CIS in particular.FAOs latest forecast for 2010 wheat productionstands at 648 million tonnes, which is 29 milliontonnes less than predicted in the June 2010 FoodOutlook. The bulk of this downward revisionreects a sharp fall in production in the RussianFederation and smaller than expected harvests inmany other countries which have offset improvedprospects for production in Argentina, Australiaand the United States.

Although global production in 2010 is setto decline by at least 5 percent from 2009,wheat stocks have proven sufcient to coverthis years decline in world output, especially inmajor exporting countries. World wheat closinginventories are forecast to fall to 181 milliontonnes, 10 percent below the 2010 level but still25 percent above the critically low level of 2008.

The tightening of the wheat supply and demandbalance gave rise to sharp price increases fromthe onset of the current season in July, withprices surging most during August, when theRussian Federation decided to ban exports. SinceSeptember, prices have remained rm, althoughbelow the peaks reached in August, supportedby the tighter supplies but also by the increase inmaize prices and the slide in the US Dollar.

Attention is now increasingly on productionprospects for 2011 but, with winter plantings inmajor producing countries of CIS lagging behindlast year and unfavourable weather hamperingearly crop development in the United States, pricesare expected to remain high and volatile for theremainder of the season.

2008/09 2009/10estim.

2010/11fcast

Change2010/11

over2009/10

million tonnes %

WORLD BALANCE

Production 684.8 682.6 647.7 -5.1

Trade 1 139.1 128.1 121.0 -5.6

Total utilization 647.3 659.8 668.0 1.2

Food 453.3 461.0 467.1 1.3

Feed 120.7 122.3 125.0 2.2

Other uses 73.3 76.4 75.9 -0.7

Ending stocks 179.8 200.9 180.9 -9.9



World (kg/year) 67.1 67.4 67.5 0.1

LIFDC (Kg/year) 57.5 58.0 58.2 0.3


Major exporters stock-to-

disappearance ratio (%) 217.5 21.7 18.4

Wheat price index *(2002-2004=100)

2008 2009 2010Jan-Oct


over

Jan-Oct 2009%

235 154 159 2

World wheat market at a glance

* Derived from International Grains Council (IGC) Wheat Index1 Trade data refer to exports based on a common July/June marketing season2 Major exporters include Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU and the United States

Contact persons:

Abdolreza AbbassianPhone: +39-06-57053264E.mail: [email protected]

Paul RacionzerPhone: +39-06-57052853E.mail: [email protected]

Wheat production, utilization and stocks

100

150

200

250

300

500

550

600

650

700

10/1108/0906/0704/0502/0300/01


fcast

Stocks (right axis)



5/119

5

Contrary to early-season forecasts that pointed to anincrease in global output of coarse grains, the latestFAO forecast puts this years production at 1 102million tonnes, down 2 percent from 2009 and wellbelow the 2008 record. As the season for the 2010crops progressed, unfavourable weather conditionstook their toll in several major producing countries.In particular, barley in the Russian Federation andUkraine was severely affected by drought, whilemaize in the United States yielded considerably lessthan the bumper levels initially expected. While worldproduction would still be the third largest ever, it willnevertheless fall short of the anticipated utilizationof 1 126 million tonnes. This implies a considerabledrawdown of world inventories this season.

World coarse grain stocks are forecast to reach198 million tonnes by the close of seasons in 2011,down as much as 12 percent from their openinglevels. As a result, the world stocks-to-use ratiofor coarse grains could fall to 17.1 percent, downfrom 20 percent in 2010 but still above its low of15.2 percent in 2006/07. World trade is expected

to reach 116 million tonnes, up 1.2 percent fromthe previous season, with major exporters meetingmost of the anticipated increase in world exportsand countries in Asia and Europe accounting formost of the expansion in world imports.

This seasons tightening of the global supplyand demand balance of coarse grains is reectedin the sharp increases in international prices, withfeed barley and maize prices in October up 70and 40 percent, respectively, from October 2009.Considering that prices of coarse grains at this timeof the year, corresponding with the main harvestperiod in northern hemisphere, should normally beat their seasonal lows, there is a strong likelihoodthat prices may rise even further from these alreadyhigh levels.

World coarse grain market at a glance

2008/09 2009/10estim.

2010/11fcast

Change2010/11

over2009/10

million tonnes %

WORLD BALANCE

Production 1 142.4 1 125.2 1 102.0 -2.1

Trade 1 113.0 114.7 116.0 1.2


Food 192.2 191.5 195.6 2.1

Feed 625.0 626.6 626.8 0.0

Other uses 272.1 295.1 303.2 2.7

Ending stocks 216.5 225.3 198.4 -12.0



World (kg/year) 28.5 28.0 28.3 0.9

LIFDC (Kg/year) 29.4 28.7 29.1 1.3




FAO coarse grain price index(2002-2004=100)

2008 2009 2010Jan-Oct


overJan-Oct 2009

%

211 157 164 5

1 Trade data refer to exports based on a common July/June marketing season2 Major exporters include Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU and the United States

Coarse grain production, utilization and stocks

100

150

200

250

300

800

900

1000

1100

1200

10/1108/0906/0704/0502/0300/01


fcast

Stocks (right axis)


Contact persons:

Abdolreza AbbassianPhone: +39-06-57053264E.mail: [email protected]

Paul RacionzerPhone: +39-06-57052853E.mail: [email protected]


6/119

6

Prospects for rice production in 2010/11 havedeteriorated since the start of the season,following weather-related setbacks, includingsevere ood damage to crops in Asia, especiallyin Pakistan. Despite the setbacks, global riceoutput this season is forecast to reach a recordlevel, sufcient to cover world consumptionwithout the need to draw down reserves. Onthe contrary, the anticipated large world outputcould translate into a sizeable increase in 2011global rice carryover stocks to what would betheir highest level since 2002.

After several months of relative calm, importdemand gained vigour in the second part of2010, with Bangladesh and Indonesia becomingparticularly active buyers. As a result, theforecast for trade in 2010 has been raised to alevel that is 5 percent above 2009, with much ofthe yearly increase expected to be met throughlarger exports from the United States and VietNam. On the other hand, amid expectations ofreduced import needs and tightening supplies in

key exporting countries, rice trade may contractsomewhat in 2011.

Reecting relatively good crops in majorimporting countries and the release of largereserves by key exporters, prices in the rst tenmonths of 2010 were lower year-on-year for alltypes of rice except the lower quality Indica, forwhich demand has recently soared. Reectingtemporary tightness of export supplies until thesecondary paddy crops are harvested in March/ April 2011, international rice quotations couldrise in the coming months, especially againstthe backdrop of rm grain prices and a weakUS Dollar.

2008/09 2009/10estim.

2010/11fcast

Change2010/11

over2009/10

million tonnes %

WORLD BALANCE (milled basis)

Production 458.3 455.6 466.7 2.4

Trade 1 29.3 30.8 30.3 -1.7


Food 382.1 388.0 393.9 1.5

Ending stocks 124.1 126.2 133.2 5.6



World (kg/year) 56.5 56.7 56.9 0.4

LIFDC (Kg/year) 68.8 68.9 69.0 0.1

World stock-to-use ratio (%) 27.4 27.4 28.5 3.8


disappearance ratio (%) 221.3 16.6 17.6 6.0

FAO rice price index(2002-2004=100)

2008 2009 2010Jan-Oct

Change:Jan-Oct 2010

overJan-Oct 2009

%

295 253 223 -12.5

World rice market at a glance

1 Calendar year exports (second year shown)2 Major exporters include India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Viet NamMore detailed information on the rice market is available in the FAO Rice MarketMonitor which can be accessed at: http://www.fao.org/economic/est/publications/ rice-publications/rice-market-monitor-rmm/en/

Contact person:

Concepcin CalpePhone: +39-06-57054136E.mail: [email protected]

Rice production, utilization and stocks

60

90

120

150

180

350

380

410

440

470

10/1108/0906/0704/0502/0300/01

Million tonnes, milled eq. Million tonnes, milled eq.

fcast

Stocks (right axis)



7/119

7

After 15 years of uninterrupted growth, globalcassava production is forecast to fall to 249million tonnes in 2010, a decline of over 2million tonnes from the record of the previousyear, reecting poor harvests in Asia, particularlyin Thailand.

In spite of the drop in production, worldtrade in cassava products is set to undergo afurther expansion in 2010, underpinned byan expected sharp rise in the import demandfor cassava chips as feedstock for the ethanolindustry. International cassava ows will onceagain be conned mostly to Southeast Asia andsome cross-border transactions where cassava isgrown. Thailand is expected to be the leadingsource of trade supplies, with its dominancereafrmed by the slump in sales by Viet Nam.On the import side, Mainland China is likely toremain the major destination of trade in cassavaproducts.

Prices of internationally traded cassavaproducts rose to record levels in 2010. A sharp

cut in Thai exportable supplies, owing to acollapse in production, was the main reasonbehind the rmer prices but a weak US Dollaralso provided support. Cassava product pricesare expected to remain rm in 2011, althoughmuch will depend on the demand for cassavaproducts for feed and industrial use, especiallyethanol. These prospects will in turn beinuenced by developments in the competingglobal maize sector.

Contact person:

Adam PrakashPhone: +39-06-57054948E.mail: [email protected]

International cassava and Thai domestic prices

0

200

400

600

2010200920082007

USD per tonne

Flour/Starch(Super High Grade f.o.b Bangkok)

Chips to China(f.o.b Bangkok)

Roots(Thai domestic)

Source: Thai Tapioca Trade Association

2008 2009estim.

2010fcast

Change2010 over

2009

(million tonnes fresh root equiv) %

WORLD BALANCE

Production 239.9 251.0 248.7 -0.9

Trade 18.9 28.2 29.2 3.8


Per caput food consumption

World (kg/year) 16.9 17.7 17.6 -0.9

Developing (kg/year) 21.3 22.2 22.0 -0.9LDC (kg/year) 62.6 65.8 68.9 -4.7

Sub Saharan Africa (kg/year) 106.4 111.2 114.8 3.2

FAO cassava prices 2008 2009 2010Jan-Oct


overJan-Oct 2009

USD/tonne %

Chips to China (f.o.b. Bangkok) 171.1 137.4 199.1 52.4

Starch (f.o.b. Bangkok) 383.6 281.3 496.0 87.1

Thai domestic root prices 57.2 41.4 76.1 98.8

World cassava market at a glance


8/119

8

At the onset of the 2010/11 season, reportsof lower than expected crops of both oilseedsand coarse grains lent new support to prices inthe oilseed complex, driving the FAO indices foroilseeds, oils and meals to 24-month highs inOctober. Current forecasts for 2010/11 suggestthat total oilcrop output will remain close tothe 2009/10 record level as anticipated declinesfor soybeans, rapeseed and copra wouldbe compensated by the rising cottonseed,groundnut and palmkernel output. However,with meal and oil utilization anticipated toexpand further, the market situation is expectedto remain tight, in particular in the case of oilsand fats.

While global production of both, oils andmeals is anticipated to be near record, therespective stock-to-use ratios are forecast to fall.Such outlook, together with the possibility ofstrong competition for land between soy, maizeand wheat in 2011, suggests that world prices

of oilseeds, meals and oils could remain rmthroughout the current season.

Contact person:

Peter ThoenesPhone: +39-06-57053498E.mail: [email protected] 50

100

150

200

250

300

20102009200820072006200520042003

Oilmeals/cakes

Oils/fats

Oilseeds

FAO monthly international price indices foroilseeds, oils/fats and meals/cakes (2002-2004=100)

2008 /09 2009/10estim.

2010/11fcast

Change2010/11

over2009/10

million tonnes %

TOTAL OILSEEDS

Production 409.5 454.8 453.7 -0.3

OILS AND FATS

Production 161.5 172.0 174.6 1.5

Supply 184.8 194.2 198.8 2.4

Utilization 163.6 169.9 178.0 4.7Trade 86.2 88.9 90.8 2.2

Stock-to-utilization ratio (%) 13.6 14.2 13.2

MEALS AND CAKES

Production 100.0 116.0 115.4 -0.5

Supply 117.9 130.6 134.6 3.1

Utilization 104.6 109.5 114.9 4.9

Trade 62.3 66.8 69.9 4.6

Stock-to-utilization ratio (%) 14.0 17.4 16.4

FAO price indices (Jan-Dec)(2002-2004=100)

2008 2009 2010Jan-Oct


overJan-Oct 2009

%

Oilseeds 205 161 165 3.0

Oilmeals/cakes 195 194 216 14.2

Oils/fats 225 150 181 23.2

World oilseed and product markets at a glance

Note: Refer to Table 13 for further explanations regarding denitions and coverage


9/119

9

World sugar production is expected to reach168.8 million tonnes in 2010/11, whichrepresents an increase of 7.7 percent overthe 2009/10 season. For the rst time since2007/08, global production is to surpassconsumption, but the surplus may be subject todownward revisions as the season progresses.The increase in production is largely attributedto signicant expansion in area, prompted bystrong international sugar prices over the past12 months. Growth in world sugar consumptionis set to recover from a slowdown in 2009/10, asbuoyant economic activity in 2010/11 stimulatessugar intake in several emerging and developingcountries. World trade is expected to declineby 5 percent, constrained by reduced exportavailabilities in several producing countries. Asa result, and given a strong global demand,international sugar prices may well remainrelatively high and volatile in the coming months.

World sugar market at a glance

2008 /09 2009/10estim.

2010/11fcast

Change:2010/11

over2009/10

million tonnes %

WORLD BALANCE

Production 151.05 156.66 168.80 7.75

Trade 47.50 53.30 50.62 -5.03

Utilization 160.79 162.59 166.09 2.15

Ending stocks 60.89 54.80 56.37 2.87



World (kg/year) 22.96 22.94 23.16 0.96

LIFDC (Kg/year) 13.50 13.59 13.58 -0.08


ISA Daily Price Average(US cents/lb)

2008 2009 2010Jan-Oct


overJan-Oct 2009

%

12.80 18.14 20.07 16.8

Contact person:

El Mamoun AmroukPhone: +39-06-57056891E.mail: [email protected]

International Sugar Agreement (ISA)

8

13

18

23

28

2009

2010

2008

2007

US cent per lb.

DNOSAJJMAMFJ


10/119

10

World meat trade is forecast to grow by2.8 percent in 2010, to 26.1 million tonnes,sustained by a brisk growth in pig meat, but alsoby gains in bovine and poultry meat. However,in the case of poultry, the most widely tradedmeat, the expansion of world exports is likelyto be constrained by the imposition of sanitaryrestrictions by major importers. Increasedpurchases from Asian countries are expectedto fuel much of the expected increase of meattrade, more than compensating for a 15 percentreduction of imports by the Russian Federation,which had emerged as the second largest meatimporter in 2009, after China.

According to the FAO Meat Price Index,world meat prices between January and October2010 averaged 14 percent higher than in thesame period in 2009, and similar to the levelswitnessed in 2008.

World meat production in 2010 is antici-pated to grow by a mere 1 percent, to 286

million tonnes, restrained by reduced animalinventories, high feed costs and a relatively weakconsumer demand, which will make it difcultfor producers to transfer the full increases ofcosts to prices.

Contact person:

Pedro AriasPhone: +39-06-57054098E.mail: [email protected]

FAO international meat price indices(2002-2004 = 100)

75

100

125

150

175

200

2010200920082007

Bovine

Pigmeat

Poultry

Ovine

Total meat

World meat markets at a glance

2008 2009estim.

2010fcast

Change:2010over2009

million tonnes %

WORLD BALANCE

Production 279.4 283.9 286.2 0.8

Bovine meat 65.2 65.7 65.0 -1.1

Poultry meat 91.9 93.7 95.7 2.2

Pigmeat104.0 106.1 107.0 0.9

Ovine meat 12.9 12.9 13.0 0.1

Trade 25.9 25.4 26.1 2.8

Bovine meat 7.4 7.4 7.6 3.0

Poultry 11.1 11.1 11.3 1.5

Pigmeat 6.3 5.8 6.1 5.3

Ovine meat 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.9



World (kg/year) 41.7 41.9 41.8 -0.3

Developed (Kg/year) 81.5 81.1 80.7 -0.4

Developing (kg/year) 31.0 31.5 31.5 0.1FAO meat price index(2002-2004=100)

2008 2009 2010Jan-Oct*


overJan-Oct 2009

%

128 118 134 14.0

* September and October estimates


11/119

11

Strong import demand from Asian countries andthe Russian Federation has driven dairy producttrade to historically high levels in 2010, with thedemand largely met by higher exports from NewZealand and the United States. Dairy productprices in international trade have remained rm,in particular butter, which in October reachedan all-time high.

FAOs latest forecast of world dairy productionfor 2010 stands at 710.7 million tonnes, 1.7percent more than last year. Production indeveloped countries is forecast to grow byaround 1 percent, while that of developingcountries may increase by 2.4 percent. On aper capita basis, consumption of milk and milkproducts in developing countries may increaseby 1 kg per capita in 2010, from 66.4 to 67.5kg, fuelled by strong economic growth in Asia.

2008 2009estim.

2010fcast

Change:2010over2009

million tonnes milk equiv. %

WORLD BALANCE

Total milk production 694.2 698.8 710.7 1.7

Total trade 42.0 43.5 46.0 5.7



World (kg/year) 104.0 103.5 104.1 0.6Developed countries (Kg/year) 246.3 243.8 244.3 0.2

Developing countries (Kg/year) 66.0 66.4 67.5 1.5

Trade - share of prod. (%) 6.0 6.2 6.5

FAO dairy price index(2002-2004=100)

2008 2009 2010Jan-Oct


overJan-Oct 2009

%

220 142 199 57

World dairy market at a glance

Contact person:

Pedro AriasPhone: +39-06-57054098E.mail: [email protected]

FAO international dairy price index(2002-2004=100)

50

150

250

350

201020082006200420022000199819961994

The index is derived from a trade-weighted average of a selectionof representative internationally traded dairy products.


12/119

12

On average, the latest trade information indicatesthat two years after the drastic fall at the end of 2008,prices in September 2010 were only 1 percent belowthe peak of September 2008, with aquaculture prices11.6 percent higher whereas prices of wild specieswere 10 percent lower. According to the FAO FishPrice Index, prices over January to September were,on average, 8.5 percent higher year-on-year.

Aquaculture producers of many of the exportedcommodities responded to the economic crisis in late2008 and throughout 2009 by reducing stockinglevels, thus affecting future production. Sincethen, demand in many developing countries hasrebounded, especially in Asia and South America.Developed country demand for farmed products ispicking up, and prices for products such as shrimp,catsh, tilapia and salmon have risen signicantlyin 2010. For capture sheries, the picture is moremixed with some prices negatively affected by largeharvests, whereas others have strengthened as lowershing quotas resulted in reduced supply.

The price outlook for the rest of 2010 and early2011 is positive, with demand rming in mostmarkets and supply expected to remain stable.

2008 2009estim.

2010fcast

Change2010 over

2009

million tonnes %

WORLD BALANCE

Production 142.3 145.1 147.0 1.3

Capture sheries 89.7 90.0 89.8 -0.2

Aquaculture 52.5 55.1 57.2 3.8

Trade value (exports USD

billion)

102.0 95.4 101.9 6.8

Trade volume (live weight) 55.2 54.9 55.3 0.7

Total utilization

Food 115.1 117.8 119.5 1.5

Feed 20.2 20.1 20.1 -0.1

Other uses 7.0 7.2 7.4 2.8



Food sh (kg/year) 17.1 17.2 17.3 0.3

From capture sheries (kg/year) 9.3 9.2 9.0 -1.7

From aquaculture (kg/year) 7.8 8.1 8.3 2.6

FAO Fish price index 2008Sept.

2009Sept.

2010Sept.

ChangeSept. 2010

overSept. 2009

%

128 117 127 8.5

World sh market at a glance

Contact person:Audun LemPhone: +39-06-57052692E.mail: [email protected]

The FAO sh price index (2005=100)

70

90

110

130

150

201020082006200420022000199819961994

Data source: Norwegian Seafood Export Council

FAO total sh price index

Capture totalAquaculture Total


13/119

13

Figure 1. Year-to-year change in cereal production

-3

0

3

6

9

20102009200820072006

Percentage

estim. fcast

Figure 2. Cereal stocks and ratios

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2010/112009/102008/092007/082006/070

5

10

15

20

25

Million tonnes Percent

Major Exporters Rest of the World

World Stock-to-use ratioStock-to-disappearance ratio of Major Exporters

estim. fcast

Unexpected decline in production leads tosmaller inventories

FAOs forecast for world cereal production in 2010 nowstands at 2 216 million tonnes, including milled rice. This is2 percent below last years level and the second consecutivedecline, but still the third largest crop on record. All of thereduction is in wheat and coarse grains (primarily barley)in several major producing and exporting countries wheresowings were cut back due to reduced price prospects atplanting time and/or drought during the growing season,which severely impacted yields. Contrary to most othercereals, the global output of rice will grow in 2010 to a newrecord level, reecting more favourable monsoon rains overthe season, especially in India.

Regarding the rst of the 2011 cereal crops, manyof which have already been planted, early prospects aregenerally favourable. The bulk of winter grain planting isalmost complete in the northern hemisphere where theoverall area is expected to expand in response to favourableprice prospects. In the southern hemisphere, most of themain maize crop has been planted in South America.

Plantings have increased in Argentina but may have declinedsomewhat in Brazil. In Southern Africa, early indicationssuggest a smaller maize area in South Africa, the mainproducing country, although the recent strengthening ofmaize prices may encourage some late planting.

World cereal trade in 2010/11 is forecast to contract by2 percent to 267 million tonnes, with declines in barley,wheat and rice more than offsetting an increase in maizetrade. The fall in wheat imports reects smaller purchasesby several countries in Asia while small increases in imports

are anticipated for Africa and Europe. The slight 2011contraction in rice trade mainly reects expectations ofreduced imports by Asian countries. By contrast, trade incoarse grains is forecast to increase, driven by higher maizedemand because of tightening barley and feed wheatsupplies.

World cereal utilization is forecast at 2 254 milliontonnes in 2010/11, pointing to a growth of around1.3 percent from 2009/10. This compares with over2 percent growth rates registered during the past threeseasons. However, food, feed and industrial utilization ofmajor cereals all seem to be keeping pace with recent trends the anticipated slower growth in total utilization mostlystems from this years decline in world cereal productionwhich inherently lowers the level of post-harvest losses,another component of the total cereal utilization. Total foodconsumption of cereals is forecast to reach 1 057 milliontonnes, up 1.5 percent from the previous season. Worldfeed use of cereals is expected to increase marginally as inthe previous season, by less than 1 percent, to 764 milliontonnes. For coarse grains, total feed use is forecast to remain

stagnate for the third season in a row because of continuingdifcult economic conditions dampening livestock demandand, hence, production in the developed countries.

World cereal stocks for crop seasons ending in 2011 areforecast to fall to 512 million tonnes, down 7 percent from


14/119

14

Signicant increases in production are needed to avert a major tightening of supplies in2011/12

Amid the tightening of global balances for some grains in the current season and the related sharp rise in international prices,attention is already turning to the prospects for the 2011 crops which, along with the 2010/11 closing stocks, will determinesupplies in 2011/12. For wheat , assuming utilization in 2011/12 remains close to the ten-year trend, an estimated increase of atleast 3.5 percent in world production in 2011 would be required in order to prevent a further drawdown of global wheat reservesin 2012. However, in view of the fact that wheat utilization has exceeded the ten-year trend for two consecutive seasons, shouldthis be the case again next season, the increase in global production would have to be higher than 3.5 percent to prevent wheatstocks from plunging to critically low levels. The supply of maize , another major cereal, also has become a concern this season. Forthe maize supply and demand balance to improve in 2011/12, world production needs to increase by at least 6 percent comparedwith 2010.

Planting of the winter grain crops is almost complete in the northern hemisphere and sowing of maize is well underway in thesouthern hemisphere. In the EU, conditions for the winter grain planting have been generally favourable, with wheat area forecastto rise by about 3 percent compared with the previous season. Although some of the increase may come at the expense of oilseedrape because of adverse weather in August/September, it is also expected that a signicant amount of land under voluntaryset-aside may be brought back into wheat production for the 2011 harvest in response to attractive wheat prices. In the easternpart of Europe, autumn sowing in the Russian Federation has been signicantly impeded because of this years severe drought.Although the Russian Federations winter wheat area is tentatively estimated to be well down from the previous years level, springwheat planting could increase signicantly to bring the overall wheat area close to the average of the past few years. However,having a higher proportion of spring crops, which yield much less than winter crops, would imply lower than normal yield potential

for the 2011 crop. In Ukraine, planting conditions have improved after a dry start and the winter wheat area should be near lastyears average. In North America, the United States winter wheat planting, virtually complete by the end of October, increased inarea by a signicant 2 to 3 million hectares over last years 40-year low. However, crop conditions as of early November remainedfar from ideal, especially in Kansas, a major producing state. In Asia, conditions reportedly have been satisfactory in China andIndia for winter wheat planting and the areas sown in both countries are thought to have changed little from the previous yearsabout-average levels. Based on the current planting information and assuming normal weather conditions and average yields,global wheat production could increase sufciently to avoid further supply deterioration in 2011/12.

In the southern hemisphere , sowing of the main maize crops for harvest in 2011 is already well underway in the major producingcountries. In South America, the bulk of the planting in Argentina has been completed under favourable conditions and benecialrains have increased soil moisture reserves, vitally important for the development of crops later in the season. Helped by the goodplanting conditions, and in response to increased price prospects, early indications suggest that the maize area has increasedsignicantly from last years already above-average area, providing potential for a bumper crop next year. However, in Brazil, themain maize crop area, mostly in southern parts of the country, is thought to have declined slightly due to earlier dry weather thatdelayed the start of the planting season. Although about 40 percent of Brazils annual maize production is now produced from thesecondary season crop, which follows soybeans, there are already concerns that the area to be planted next year may be limitedbecause of the late start to the soy season. In Southern Africa, the main maize crops for harvest in 2011 are also being planted.As of mid-October, South African farmers planting intentions pointed to a 10 percent decrease in the area planted to maize forthe 2011 harvest.

While high prices encourage farmers to dedicate more area to maize for next year, planting areas in major producing countries,

such as in the United States, the worlds largest producer, were already at their peaks in 2010. Therefore, any further expansionwould require a switch of area from competing crops. This situation calls for a close monitoring of plantings for 2011 in order todetermine if next years production could increase sufciently to prevent a further drawdown of already low stocks.


15/119

15

Figure 3. Wheat export price (US no. 2 H.W. Gulf)

100

200

300

400

500

2010/11

2009/10

2008/09

2007/08

USD per tonne

JMAMFJDNOSAJ

their relatively high opening levels. The decline marks therst dip in world cereal inventory in three years. World stocksof coarse grains are forecast to decline most, by 12 percent.Maize stocks are forecast to fall by 6 percent whileinventories of barley could plunge by as much as 35 percent.Wheat stocks are also foreseen to contract sharply, by10 percent. Nearly all the reductions in grain stocks areanticipated to occur in the major exporters and the CIS. Bycontrast, given the expected rise in world rice production,rice stocks are expected to increase by 6 percent. Based onthe current expectations for production and utilization thisseason world cereal stocks-to-use ratio in 2010/11 is likely todecline by 2 percentage points to 22.5 percent, which wouldbe lower than was anticipated at the start of the season butstill well above the 30-year low of 19.6 percent registered in2007/08.

Given this seasons tighter market situation, prices of

most cereals have risen sharply. The FAO Cereal Price Indexaveraged 219 points in October 2010, 5 percent abovethe September average, but up as much as 32 percent, or

53 points, from October 2009. Among the major cereals,international prices of barley, maize and wheat increased themost. Between July and October, wheat and coarse grainsincreased by 35 and 47 percent respectively while rice pricesgained 14 percent.

International wheat prices have increasedsharplyInternational wheat prices started to increase ratherunexpectedly at the beginning of the current season in July.Prices hit their highest 2010 level in August, as productionprospects in a number of major producing countries beganto look far less promising than originally anticipated. Themain problem areas were the drought-stricken RussianFederation and Kazakhstan, but unfavourable weather alsolowered production in Canada, the EU and Ukraine as wellas in several importing countries, including many countriesof northern Africa. An export restriction imposed by theRussian Federation, starting from mid-August and eventuallyextended to 30 June 2011, was also an important factor indriving up world prices. However, because of generally good

supply prospects, international prices fell towards the end ofSeptember and early October, before rebounding stronglyfollowing a sudden surge in maize prices in October and theslide in the US Dollar. In October, the benchmark US No. 2Hard Red Winter , f.o.b ., averaged USD 291 per tonne,down slightly from September but 37 percent higher than in

2008 /09 2009 /10estim.

2010/11fcast

Change2010/11

over2009/10

million tonnes %

WORLD BALANCE

Production 2 285.5 2 263.4 2 216.4 -2.1

Trade 2 281.3 273.6 267.3 -2.3


Food 1 027.6 1 040.5 1 056.6 1.5

Feed 758.0 761.1 764.0 0.4

Other uses 396.2 424.3 433.2 2.1

Ending stocks 520.4 552.4 512.5 -7.2



World (kg/year) 152.1 152.2 152.7 0.3

LIFDC (Kg/year)3 155.9 155.9 156.5 0.4


Major exporters stock-to-disappearance ratio (%)

17.8 17.7 14.9

FAO cereal price index(2002-2004=100)

2008 2009 2010Jan-Oct

Change:Jan-Oct 2010

overJan-Oct 2009

%

238 174 173 -1

Table 1. World cereal market at a glance 1

1 Rice in milled equivalent2 Trade data refer to exports based on a July/June marketing season for wheat and

coarse grains and on a January/December marketing season for rice3 Low-Income Food-Decit Countries


16/119

16

Figure 4. CBOT wheat futures for March

150

200

250

300

350

USD per tonne

M A M J J A S O N

2010 values 2011 values

Table 3. Wheat production: leading producers(2009 and 2010)

Country * 2009estim.

2010fcast

Change: 2010over 2009

million tonnes %

EU 138.5 136.0 -1.8China (Mainland) 115.1 115.1 -India 80.7 80.7 -United States 60.4 60.1 -0.4Russian Federation 61.7 42.0 -32.0Canada 26.8 22.2 -17.3Pakistan 24.0 23.9 -0.7Australia 21.7 23.0 6.2Ukraine 20.9 17.6 -15.8Turkey 20.6 19.5 -5.3Kazakhstan 17.0 13.0 -23.5Iran Islamic Rep. of 13.0 14.5 11.5Argentina 7.5 11.5 53.5Egypt 8.5 8.6 0.9Uzbekistan 6.6 6.8 1.7Other countries 59.5 53.3 -10.5World 682.6 647.7 -5.1

* Countries listed according to their position in global production(average 2008-2010)

July, although still 40 percent below the record reached inMarch 2008.

In recent weeks, wheat prices also have been inuencedby concerns about lower plantings in the RussianFederation and Ukraine, unfavourable crop conditions inthe United States and, more generally, by expectation of aninsufcient increase in overall plantings, as farmers in manymajor producing countries are likely to increase plantings of

other crops as well. This prospect, combined with tighteningmaize supplies and a weak US Dollar, continue to underpinwheat futures. As of early November, wheat futures inChicago for March delivery were quoted at around USD 280per tonne, up 41 percent from the corresponding perioda year ago and 39 percent higher than at the start of theseason in July.

Global wheat output falls signicantly in 2010FAOs latest forecast for global wheat output in 2010 nowstands at 648 million tonnes, much less than had beenexpected earlier in the season and 5 percent down from2009. The wheat crop was forecast to be smaller than lastyear from the outset of the season because of plantingreductions and expected return to normal yields in somemajor producing and exporting countries. However, asthe season progressed, adverse weather in some partscurtailed yields far more than anticipated bringing this yearsproduction levels further down.

Most of the major 2010 wheat crops have already beenharvested. Latest estimates in Asia indicate a small declinein the aggregate output of wheat in 2010. In the Near

2008/09 2009/10estim.

2010/11fcast

Change2010/11

over2009/10

million tonnes %

WORLD BALANCE

Production 684.8 682.6 647.7 -5.1

Trade 1 139.1 128.1 121.0 -5.6


Food 453.3 461.0 467.1 1.3

Feed 120.7 122.3 125.0 2.2

Other uses 73.3 76.4 75.9 -0.7

Ending stocks 179.8 200.9 180.9 -9.9



World (kg/year) 67.1 67.4 67.5 0.1

LIFDC (Kg/year) 57.5 58.0 58.2 0.3




Wheat price index *(2002-2004=100)

2008 2009 2010Jan-Oct

Change:Jan-Oct 2010

overJan-Oct 2009

%

235 154 159 2

Table 2. World wheat market at a glance

* Derived from International Grains Council (IGC) Wheat Index1 Trade data refer to exports based on a common July/June marketing season2

Major exporters include Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU and the United States


17/119

17

Figure 5. Wheat exporters

0 10 20 30 40

2009/10 estimate 2010/11 forecast

Million tonnes

UnitedStates

EU

Canada

Argentina

Ukraine

Kazakhstan

Australia

RussianFederation

East subregion, increased output in the Islamic Republicof Iran offset weather-reduced crops in Afghanistan ,the Syrian Arab Republic and Turkey . In North Africa,output was severely reduced by a drought in Tunisia andMorocco that was already underway at planting time.In Europe, the nal harvest outcomes were below earlyseason expectations in parts of the EU, due to insufcientprecipitation during the season in some areas and heavyrains in others. However, it was severe drought in the twomain producing CIS countries in Europe the RussianFederation and Ukraine that was behind the bulk of thedownward revisions to the global output forecast as theseason progressed. The two countries are also responsiblefor much of the reduction in the world productioncompared with last year. Output in the Russian Federationalone is estimated to have fallen by about 19 milliontonnes. In North America, the 2010 wheat crop estimatein the United States rose as the season progressed and,despite a signicant reduction in plantings, above-averageyields have resulted in an output that is virtually unchangedfrom the previous year. By contrast, production in Canada fell further than expected, as adverse spring weather wasfollowed by unfavourable weather for crop maturation,which is expected to depress further the nal harvestedarea and yields.

In South America, production is expected to recover

sharply from last years reduced level, reecting a returnto normal weather conditions in Argentina (the mainproducing country) after last years drought. In Oceania,prospects for the wheat crop in Australia remain mixed,with the outlook very good in the eastern producing areas,but poor in western Australia where drought persists.Overall, Australias 2010 output forecast is up slightly from2009, at 23 million tonnes.

Wheat trade to decrease in 2010/11World wheat trade in 20010/11 (July/June) is forecast toreach 121 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes higher than wasforecast in September, 1 but down almost 5 million tonnes,or 4 percent, from 2009/10 and as much as 16 milliontonnes, or 12 percent, below the 2008/09 all time highof 137 million tonnes. The decline in this seasons importsmostly reects substantially lower wheat purchases byseveral countries in Asia, which would more than offset smallincreases in imports in Africa and in Europe.

Total wheat imports by countries in Asia are forecastto fall to 53 million tonnes, down 8 million tonnes fromthe previous season. Most of this decline would be dueto reduced purchases by the Islamic Republic of Iran ,reecting a bumper crop and the countrys decision to ban

imports of wheat. In addition, imports of feed wheat bythe Republic of Korea are likely to be smaller, because ofreduced supplies from the Black Sea region. Lower importsare also forecast for Mainland China , the Syrian ArabRepublic and Thailand, mostly because of large carryoversfrom the previous season. Smaller imports are anticipatedin Bangladesh because of large domestic supplies and inAfghanistan, because of this years above-average domesticoutput coupled with reduced availabilities from the nearbyexporting countries.

In Africa , aggregate imports are forecast to exceed35 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes higher than in theprevious season. The increase reects a signicant jump indeliveries to several countries in North Africa, up almost2 million tonnes from the previous season to nearly22 million tonnes. Larger imports by Morocco, whichsuffered from a severe drought, and by Tunisia , becauseof a smaller harvest, account for the bulk of the expectedincrease in imports in North Africa. In order to stabilizesupplies, Morocco suspended its 135 percent import dutyon soft wheat from mid-September until the end of this

year. By contrast, with domestic production at a recordhigh and large carryovers from the previous season, thisseasons wheat imports by Egypt , the worlds largestwheat importer, are likely to decline by 1.2 million tonnes,to 9 million tonnes. Total wheat imports by countries in

1 GIEWS Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No.3 September 2010


18/119

18

sub-Saharan Africa are forecast to decline by 1.2 milliontonnes to 13.6 million tonnes, the lowest level since2007/08, mainly driven by reductions in Kenya andNigeria .

In Latin America and the Caribbean , total wheatimports in 2010/11 are forecast to approach 20 milliontonnes, up marginally from the previous season. Imports byBrazil, the regions largest wheat importer, are forecast toremain unchanged at 6.5 million tonnes, mainly becausethis years production rose to above-average levels, sufcientto meet the anticipated increase in food consumption. Bycontrast, Mexico will need higher imports this season tocompensate for the decline in domestic wheat production.Wheat imports in Mexico are forecast to increase by 300 000tonnes, to 3.3 million tonnes.

Total imports in Europe are put at 9.6 million tonnes, upnearly 2 million tonnes from the previous seasons reducedlevel. The increase is almost entirely due to large purchasesby the Russian Federation following this years severelyreduced harvests.

Total wheat exports by the ve traditional exporters areforecast to approach 92 million in 2010/11, up 14 percentfrom the previous seasons level. Shipments from theUnites States are forecast to reach 33.5 million tonnes,the highest since 1995/96 and 9 million tonnes more thanin 2009/10. Following a recovery in domestic production,

exports from Argentina are forecast to increase sharply.Larger sales are also anticipated for Australia and theEU while Canada is expected to ship less wheat than lastseason because of a decline in its domestic production. Thisstrong rebound in exports from the ve major exportersshould more than offset a sharp decline in sales from the CIScountries.

Wheat exports from the Russian Federation in 2010/11are estimated at only 3.5 million tonnes, down 14 milliontonnes from the previous season. Following this yearsdrought-reduced crop, the Russian Federation imposed a banon all grain exports from mid-August to the end of 2010.This ban has recently been extended to 30 June 2010, whilea ban on wheat our exports will be lifted in January 2011.Exports from Ukraine also have been curtailed followingthis years production. Wheat shipments from Ukraine arecurrently forecast at 6 million tonnes, down 3 million tonnesfrom 2009/10 and less than half the level in 2007/08 whenUkraine shipped a record 12.6 million tonnes. In October,the Government imposed a 2.7 million tonne quota on grainexports until the end of 2010 which includes 500 000 tonnes

of wheat. Smaller exports are also anticipated inKazakhstan and Turkey, following a reduction in domesticproduction.

Wheat utilization in 2010/11 to exceed trendAs a result of the decline in world wheat production andthe increase in prices of wheat since the beginning of the

season, the world wheat utilization in 2010/11 is forecastat 668 million tonnes, down from the earlier estimateof 675 million tonnes published in the June 2010 FoodOutlook. However, even at the current forecast level, worldwheat utilization would be 1.2 percent above the previousseasons level and still slightly above the ten-year trend.

World food consumption of wheat in 2010/11 isanticipated to rise by 1.3 percent, to 467 million tonnes.Developing countries account for most of the increase,consuming 334 million tonnes on aggregate, 1.5 percentmore than in 2009/10. In general, the growth in food use islikely to keep pace with the population growth, with globalwheat consumption remaining steady at around 68 kg perperson per annum and at around 60 kg per person in thedeveloping countries.

Total wheat feed utilization is forecast to increase by2 percent, to 125 million tonnes in 2010/11. This compareswith 1.3 percent growth in 2009/10. In spite of the increasein prices, demand for wheat in developed countries remainsstrong because of its price advantage over high proteiningredients. Nearly 100 million tonnes of wheat are expected

to be destined for feed in 2010/11 in the developedcountries, up slightly from the previous season. In the EU,the largest market for feed wheat, this seasons feed usageof wheat could approach 53 million tonnes, slightly belowthe previous seasons level due to tighter supplies. However,larger wheat feed usage is expected in the CIS countries,in particular in the Russian Federation where it could reach20 million tonnes, the highest volume since 1993 and3.5 million tonnes more than in the previous season. Thelarge increase in wheat usage is expected to offset sharpdeclines in the use of barley and maize for feed becauseof their even tighter domestic supplies. Among the otherusages of wheat, the industrial use also is expected toincrease in 2010/11, with most of the anticipated expansionlikely to occur in the EU, mainly because of growing demandfor ethanol.

Wheat inventories to fall sharply World wheatstocks are currently forecast to reach 181 million tonnes

by the close of the crop seasons in 2011. This is 13 milliontonnes below FAOs rst forecast, which was reported in theJune 2010 Food Outlook. The downward revision puts world


19/119

19

wheat stocks at some 20 million tonnes, or 10 percent,below the previous seasons high level, but still around36 million tonnes, or 25 percent, above the 2008 criticallylow of 145 million tonnes. The revision reects a notabledownward adjustment to 2010 production levels in severalimportant wheat producing countries, in particular in theCIS, as well as signicant upward adjustments to forecastsfor exports from the United States and the EU. Among

the CIS countries, inventories in the Russian Federation alone are likely to decline by over 4 million tonnes becauseof the drought-devastated production in 2010. Based on thelatest forecasts for world stocks and utilization, the globalstock-to-use ratio for wheat in 2010/11 is expected to dropto 27.3 percent in 2010/11 from 30.1 percent in 2009/10.However, the ratio remains well above the 30-year low of22.3 percent registered in 2007/08.

Total wheat stocks held by the major exporters areforecast to reach 49 million tonnes, down 6 million tonnesfrom their opening level but still the second highest in veyears and 19 million tonnes more than in 2008. Amongthe major exporters, the largest decrease is expected in theUnited States where, despite a steady production level,season-end wheat inventories are projected to decline by3.5 million tonnes to 23.1 million tonnes because of muchlarger exports and domestic utilization than in the previousseason. Nonetheless, inventories in the United Stateswould be the second largest since 2001, and nearly threetimes higher than its low in 2008. Similarly, stocks in theEU are set to decline by 2.5 million tonnes, to 15.5 million

tonnes, driven by an increase in exports as well as a declinein this years production. On aggregate, however, the ratio of stocks held by the major exporters to their

disappearance (i.e. domestic utilization plus exports) isforecast to reach 18.4 percent, down 3.3 percentage pointsfrom the previous season but well above the critically lowratio of 11.8 percent in the high-price 2007/08 season.

Tight markets leading to higher pricesUnexpected weather events have driven up prices of mostcoarse grains since the start of the 2010/11 season in July.In recent weeks, the slide in the US Dollar and other outsidemarket factors also contributed to price increases. Barleyprices were among the rst to rise sharply, especially afterthe Russian Federations August decision to ban all grainexports in response to a severe drought that cut this yearsproduction. Feed barley prices surged in August and remainedhigh in September. Prices rose further in October when French feed barley price (f.o.b. Rouen) averaged USD 264 pertonne, up 52 percent from July and as much as 72 percent

Figure 6. Wheat stocks and ratios

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010/112009/102008/092007/082006/070

7

14

21

28

35Million tonnes Percent

Major Exporters Rest of the World


estim. fcast

Table 4. World coarse grain market at a glance

2008 /09 2009 /10estim. 2010/11fcast Change2010/11over

2009/10

million tonnes %

WORLD BALANCE

Production 1 142.4 1 125.2 1 102.0 -2.1

Trade 1 113.0 114.7 116.0 1.2


Food 192.2 191.5 195.6 2.1

Feed 625.0 626.6 626.8 0.0

Other uses 272.1 295.1 303.2 2.7

Ending stocks 216.5 225.3 198.4 -12.0SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS


World (kg/year) 28.5 28.0 28.3 0.9

LIFDC (Kg/year) 29.4 28.7 29.1 1.3




FAO coarse grains price index(2002-2004=100)

2008 2009 2010Jan-Oct


overJan-Oct 2009

%

211 157 164 51 Trade data refer to exports based on a common July/June marketing season2 Major exporters include Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU and the United States


20/119

20

Figure 8. CBOT maize futures for March

100

150

200

250

USD per tonne

M A M J J A S O N

2010 values 2011 values

Figure 7. Maize export price (US no. 2 yellow, Gulf)

100

150

200

250

300

2010/11

2009/10

2008/09 2007/08

USD per tonne

JMAMFJDNOSAJ

from October 2009. International maize prices also increasedsharply but unlike barley, the increase in maize prices occurredmostly after September, with a sudden surge in early Octoberon news of lower yields in the United States than earlieranticipated. The price of the benchmark US maize prices(Yellow, No. 2, f.o.b.) averaged USD 236 per tonne inOctober, up nearly 47 percent since the beginning of theseason and 40 percent higher than in October 2009. Maize

prices are supported by continuing supply tightness of barleyand feed wheat. Sorghum (Yellow Gulf) prices also haverisen sharply this season, although not by as much as barley,averaging USD 231 per tonne in October, up 33 percent fromthe same month in 2009. In recent weeks, prices have beenunderpinned further by the slide in the US Dollar. As of earlyNovember , Chicago maize futures for March delivery stoodat USD 232 per tonne, up as much as 47 percent from thecorresponding period last year. At current levels, maize pricesare only 16 percent below the peak reached in June 2008.

Coarse grains output in 2010 to fallFAOs latest forecast for world production of coarse grains in 2010 has been revised down further in recent weeksand now stands at 1 102 million tonnes. Contrary to early-season forecasts pointing to an increase in global output,the current forecast is now 2 percent down from last year,although still the third largest crop ever. As the 2010 cropseasons progressed, unfavourable weather conditions

took their tolls in several major producing countries. Inparticular, barley was severely affected by drought in theRussian Federation and Ukraine while maize yields in the

United States turned out considerably lower than thebumper levels initially expected.

Regarding maize , the major coarse grain grownworldwide, world production in 2010 is now forecast at831 million tonnes, only 1 percent up from 2009. Theoutlook for the United States, which alone accounts forabout 40 percent of global maize output, has changedconsiderably since October. Although plantings increased

in the United States, it became evident as harvestingprogressed that yields had not matched the bumper levelsachieved in the previous year and output was forecast some3 percent down from the record 2009 level. Elsewhere, alarger crop had been gathered earlier in the year in SouthAmerica. Production in Argentina recovered from droughtin 2009 and Brazil increased its output to a bumper level. InSouthern Africa, where the harvest was completed severalmonths ago, good-to-bumper crops were gathered in mostcountries. In Asia, China, the worlds second largest maizeproducer, again reaped a bumper crop, maintaining the highlevel achieved in the preceding two years.

FAOs latest forecast for world production of barley in2010 now stands at 125 million tonnes, 7 percent downfrom the previous years level. Although a smaller barley cropwas already forecast earlier in the season when plantingsdeclined throughout the major producing countries,the reduction has been amplied by adverse weatherduring the growing season. Throughout the EU countries,which together account for the bulk of the global barleyproduction, dry weather impaired yields resulting together

with reduced plantings, in a 15 percent reduction in thisyears aggregate harvest. The most notable reductions werein the Russian Federation and Ukraine where, due to the


21/119

21

Table 5. Coarse grain production: leadingproducers (2009 and 2010)

Country * 2009estim.

2010fcast

Change: 2010over 2009

million tonnes %

United States 349.5 332.7 -4.8China (Mainland) 173.1 175.4 1.3EU 155.5 139.0 -10.6Brazil 53.7 57.9 8.0India 34.2 37.6 10.1Russian Federation 33.4 19.6 -41.5Mexico 30.1 30.8 2.4Argentina 16.5 28.6 73.0Canada 22.6 22.1 -2.3Ukraine 24.0 22.1 -8.0Nigeria 21.0 20.9 -0.7Indonesia 17.6 18.0 2.2

South Africa 13.1 14.2 8.2Australia 13.0 12.7 -2.3Ethiopia 13.1 12.8 -2.3Other countries 154.8 157.6 1.8World 1 125.2 1 102.0 -2.1

* Countries listed according to their position in global production(average 2008-2010)

Figure 9. Barley production

0

60

120

180

2010/112009/102008/092007/082006/07

Million tonnes

EU

Canada

CIS

Others

estim. fcast

severe drought, the barley crops are estimated to have fallenby about 50 and 20 percent respectively compared with2009.

The forecast of world sorghum output in 2010 is put at59 million tonnes, 2.6 percent up from the previous yearscrop but well below the 2008 bumper level of 66 million

tonnes. Among the major producing countries, outputdecreased somewhat in the United States but recovered inArgentina after last years drought-reduced crop.

Higher demand for maize pushes up worldtrade in 2010/11World trade in coarse grains is forecast to expand by1.2 percent to 116 million tonnes in 2010/11 (July/June),reecting an increase in maize import demand that isexpected to drive up maize trade to 91 million tonnes, up3 million tonnes from the previous season but still 11 milliontonnes below the all time high reached in 2007/08. Bycontrast, exports of all other major coarse grains are likely toremain unchanged or even fall slightly below 2009/10 levels.Trade in barley is expected to decline by 300 000 tonnesto 16 million tonnes, while trade in sorghum is forecastto reach 6 million tonnes, down 1.1 million tonnes. Tradein oats is seen falling to 1.9 million tonnes, down 300 000tonnes from the previous season, due to smaller imports bythe United States.

Imports by nearly all regions are forecast to increase in2010/11. In Asia , the biggest market for coarse grains, thelargest increases in imports are forecast for Mainland China and the Republic of Korea . In Mainland China, despiteexpectation of a record crop, maize imports are forecastto reach at least 1.5 million tonnes, the highest since themid-1990s. Strong feed demand and rising domestic maizeprices are encouraging larger world purchases by China.

Imports of coarse grains by the Republic of Korea areforecast to increase by 800 000 tonnes, to 9 million tonnes,the highest in three years, as low exportable supplies of feedwheat from the Black Sea region this season encouragedthe country to increase its purchases of coarse grains (mostlymaize).

Imports in Africa are also up from the previous season.However, the bulk of the increase is expected in the northernsubregion, as most countries in sub-Saharan Africa are likelyto import the same volume as, if not less than, the previousseason because of good domestic production. Egypt isforecast to import 500 000 tonnes more maize than in2009/10 because of growing feed demand while Algeria ,Morocco and Tunisia are all expected to purchase morecoarse grains, to compensate for sharp reductions in theirbarley production. Sub-Saharan Africas aggregate importshave been put at 4.2 million tonnes, 100 000 tonnes belowthe previous seasons level and the smallest since 2006/07.This is partly driven by an increase of nearly 500 000 tonnesin production, boosted by a record crop in eastern Africa.The Sudans above average sorghum production could

depress imports by at least 200 000 tonnes. The Nigers higher millet and sorghum production may also result inlower imports.


22/119

22

Total coarse grain imports by countries in Latin Americaand the Caribbean are forecast to reach 27 million tonnes,an increase of nearly 1 million tonnes. Most of the increaseis expected in Mexico , the regions largest market, whereimports are forecast to reach 11.5 million tonnes, up1.1 million tonnes from the previous season. Larger importsof sorghum, due to a decline in domestic production andmaize account for most of the increase.

In Europe , total imports are forecast up sharply, mostlybecause of larger purchases by the EU and the RussianFederation . In the EU, following smaller maize and barleyharvests, imports of maize are forecast to increase by2.1 million tonnes while the Russian Federation is alsoreturning to the market as a major maize buyer this season,because of the feed shortages caused by the devastatingdrought.

Turning to exports , total shipments from the EU areforecast to rise by 2.6 million tonnes, with a surge in salesof barley more than offsetting a decline in maize exports.Larger exports of barley and sorghum are also forecast forAustralia . By contrast, exports from the worlds largestexporter, United States, could decline slightly, to 54 milliontonnes. Among other exporting countries, the productionshortfall in major producing CIS countries, in particularthe Russian Federation , has hampered exports. Aftersmall early-season sales, the ban on grain exports from theRussian Federation has halted all shipments since August.In Ukraine , exports of barley are forecast to fall sharplybecause of smaller domestic production and the recent

imposition of an export quota. However, this seasonsshrinking supplies from the CIS countries are likely to belargely offset by higher sales from Brazil and South Africa .

India and Indonesia may also export the same, if not more,than in 2009/10. As a result of signicant maize surpluses,Malawi and Zambia have lifted their export restriction thisseason.

Utilization grows but remains below trend

World total utilization of coarse grains in 2010/11 isforecast to increase to 1 126 million tonnes, up 1.1 percentfrom the estimate for 2009/10 and nearly 2 percent, or24 million tonnes, above the 2010 anticipated production.At this level, total utilization would be slightly below the ten-year trend for the rst time in four years. Food use is forecastto grow fastest followed by industrial usage, whereas feeduse is likely to remain stagnant, especially in the developedcountries. As a whole, the developed countries account forslightly over one-half of total utilization of coarse grains,while the developing countries, with nearly four times thepopulation, make up the other half. Food use of coarsegrains is forecast to reach 196 million tonnes, 2 percenthigher than in 2009/10. Developing countries account for80 percent of the food use of coarse grains, with nearly130 million tonnes in the Low-Income Food-Decit Countries(LIFDCs). The expected increase from the previous season isto rely on larger local maize supplies, following productiongains in Asia, especially in India, and several countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Coarse grains are largely used for animal feed and, for

2010/11, world feed utilization of coarse grains is currentlyforecast to reach 627 million tonnes, up marginally (lessthan 1 percent) from 2009/10. In the developing countries,

Figure 10. Coarse grain imports by region

0

20

40

60

80

2009/10 estimate

2010/11 forecast

Million tonnes

Asia Africa EuropeSouthAmerica

CentralAmerica

Figure 11. Coarse grain exporters

0 20 40 60

2009/10 estimate 2010/11 forecast

Million tonnes

UnitedStates

EU

Canada

Brazil

Ukraine

Argentina

Australia

RussianFederation


23/119

23

Figure 12. Coarse grain utilization

0

350

700

1050

1400

2010/112009/102008/092007/082006/07

Million tonnes

Feed use

Other uses

Food use

estim. fcast

feed use is anticipated to increase for the third season ina row, reaching 294 million tonnes, up 3 percent from2009/10. Most of the expansion is expected in China butalso in Argentina, Brazil, Egypt, Mexico and South Africa.However, in the developed countries, the aggregate feeduse is forecast to contract for the third consecutive season,to 333 million tonnes, or 1.3 percent less than in 2009/10.The economic slow-down which has curbed demand for

livestock products and reduced barley supply. The bulk ofthe anticipated contraction in feed use in the developedcountries is expected in several CIS countries where barleyis an important source of animal feed. The biggest declineis forecast for the Russian Federation, where the amount ofbarley used for feed in 2010/11 could be halved from theprevious seasons level, to around 5 million tonnes. Despitemuch higher maize prices this season, feed usage of maizein the United States, which is the worlds largest producerand consumer of maize, could increase by 3 percent to135 million tonnes. This would still fall below the record156 million tonnes in 2004/05. The growing utilization ofdried distillers grains (DDGs), a primary co-product of ethanolproduction, in feed rations has been mostly responsiblefor containing the growth in maize feed demand in theUnited States in recent years.

Among different industrial usages of coarse grains,growth in recent years has stemmed mainly from the ethanolsector. FAO does not compile information on industrial useof grains but bases its assessments on data and analysespublished by the International Grains Council (IGC).

According to the IGC, total industrial use of coarse grainsin 2010/11 could approach roughly 263 million tonnes,up around 2 percent from the previous season. Ethanol is

expected to account for almost 144 million tonnes of thisuse, of which some 119.4 million tonnes for productionof fuel-ethanol in the United States, up 3.6 million tonnesfrom the previous season. The United States EnvironmentalProtection Agencys (EPAs) recent approval of 15 percent

ethanol blends (E15) in cars built since 2007 will contributeto the growth in ethanol demand and hence maize usage inthe longer term. However, its near-term impact, especially inthe current season, is expected to be limited mostly becauseof logistical obstacles, such as the need for upgrading stationtanks, pumps and general handling infrastructure. On theother hand, fuel-ethanol exports from the United States areincreasing, mainly because of more limited export suppliesof sugar-based ethanol from Brazil and a weak US Dollar,indirectly sustaining domestic demand for maize in theUnited States.

A sharp fall in world stocksWorld coarse grain stocks are forecast to reach 198 milliontonnes by the close of the 2011 seasons, down as much as11.2 percent, or 26 million tonnes, from their opening levels.This anticipated sharp decrease follows three seasons ofconsecutive build-up in world inventories of coarse grains.The 198 million tonne gure is 5 million tonnes below the

rst forecast published in the June 2010 Food Outlook.Among the major coarse grains, maize stocks are set todecline by nearly 6 percent to 161 million tonnes, whileinventories of barley could fall by as much as 35 percent,to a three-year low of 23 million tonnes. Nearly all thereductions are anticipated to occur in the major exportingcountries and the large CIS producing countries. At thecurrent forecast level, the world stocks-to-use ratio forcoarse grains would fall from 20 to 17.1 percent, in 2010/11but still above its 2006/07 low of 15.2 percent.

Among the major exporters, the largest decrease isanticipated in the United States where, based on a forecastdecline in this years production together with an expectedincrease in utilization, stocks may be drawn down by asmuch as 49 percent, or 24 million tonnes, to just under25 million tonnes the lowest since 1996. The bulk of thedecline is associated with much smaller maize reserves,which are likely to dip to around 21 million tonnes. Atthis low level, the stocks-to-use ratio for maize in theUnited States would stand at 7 percent, the lowest in 15years. A sharp decline is also forecast for the EU, with total

inventories plunging to 14 million tonnes, down 43 percent,or 10.5 million tonnes, from their opening levels. Most ofthe decrease in the EU ending stocks would reect barley


24/119

24

inventories, which are expected to fall by 8 million tonnesto 5.5 million tonnes because of smaller production andlarger exports. Overall, the major exporters stock-to-disappearance ratio (i.e. domestic consumption plusexports) in 2010/11 is expected to reach only 9 percent,down nearly 6 percentage points from the previous seasonand below the ten-year low of 12 percent registered in2006/07.

Large drawdowns of stocks are forecast for the RussianFederation (mostly barley) as well as Brazil, Canada and the Islamic Republic of Iran . However, coarse grain stocks

in several countries are also forecast to increase, mainlybecause of higher domestic production, most notably inArgentina , China and South Africa .

Rice prices remain relatively subduedAgainst a backdrop of sharply rising agriculturalcommodity prices, the international rice markethas stood out as rather quiet since July. Rice pricesunderwent only moderate increases, influenced by risinginternational wheat quotations, but also on fears oflarge losses from flooding in Pakistan and, subsequently,from the passage of storms in the Philippines, Thailandand Viet Nam. Based on the FAO All Rice Price Index,rice prices gained 14 percent between July and October,far less than the other cereals, as some of the pressurewas mitigated by the release of ample rice supplies fromstocks in Viet Nam and Thailand. In fact, despite theirrecent strength, prices in the first ten months of 2010averaged 12 percent less than in the correspondingperiod in 2009, with all market segments, except lowerquality rice, faring more poorly.

The price of the Thai white rice 100% B benchmark, which had reached a year low of USD 466per tonne in July, stood at USD 510 per tonne inOctober 2010, reecting renewed sales and the strength

of the Thai baht, but still remaining short of theOctober 2009 level of USD 535 per tonne. By contrast,prices of the lower quality rice were well above oneyear ago, with fully broken rice particularly expensive inThailand. However, virtually all qualities saw Thai prices

jumping in the rst weeks of November, under concernover ood damage. Export quotations in both Pakistanand Viet Nam were also substantially higher. In Pakistan,the rises reected tightening supplies and logisticaldifculties following the oods while, in Viet Nam, theywere associated with dwindling reserves and the raising ofminimum export prices.

Although of lesser relevance than for wheat or maize,rice Chicago futures have also risen sharply since earlyJuly 2010. For instance, the quotation of rice for deliveryin January 2011 has gained over 40 percent since July,revealing expectations of further price strength in thecoming months. Indeed, unless India relaxes its ban onnon-premium rice exports, world supplies for trade mayremain limited at least until the 2010/11 secondary cropsare harvested in March/April next year. Until then, world

rice prices are likely to remain on the rise, especially in acontext of rm agricultural commodity prices and a weakUS Dollar.

Figure 14. Coarse grain stocks and ratios

0

100

200

300

2010/112009/102008/092007/082006/070

7

14


United States Rest of the World


estim. fcast

Figure 13. US maize stocks and stock-to-use-ratio

0

30

60

90

120

150

10/1105/0600/0195/9690/9185/860

20

40

60

80


Closing stocks Stock-to-use ratio

fcast


25/119

25

Figure 15. Rice export price(Thai 100% B, f.o.b. Bangkok)

200

400

600

800

1000

2009

2008

2007

2010

USD per tonne

DNOSAJJMAMFJ

Figure 16. FAO rice price indices (2002-2004=100)

150

200

250

300

350

2009 2010

Indica: Low Quality

Indica: High Quality Japonica

Aromatic

OSAJJMAMFJDNO

Figure 17. Global rice paddy production and area

550

600

650

700

750

10090807060504030201125

135

145

155

165

Million tonnes Million ha

Production Area

estim. fcast

Although deteriorating, the outlook for globalrice production in 2010/11 remains positiveGlobal rice production 2 in the 2010/11 season is currently

forecast to reach 467 million tonnes. This is substantiallyless than the 472 million tonnes foreseen at the beginningthe season and reported in the June issue of Food Outlook,but still 11 million tonnes above 2009/10. The downgradingof the outlook reects problems resulting from the LaNia weather anomaly which has prevailed since mid-2010. Estimates for this years production in Argentina,Brazil and Peru have been revised downward since June,but most of the recent worsening prospects concernednorthern hemisphere countries, which are now harvestingtheir main crops. For instance, production forecasts weretrimmed for China , where a combination of drought andoods depressed early rice crop results, but also for theDemocratic Republic of Korea , Lao Peoples DemocraticRepublic, Myanmar, the Philippines and the Republicof Korea, which all faced setbacks. The most importantfactor in the worsening of this seasons outlook was thedramatic oods that wiped out large tracts of maturingcrops in Pakistan in August. Outside Asia, crop expectationsfor Egypt, the EU and United States were also curtailed.However, 2010/11 production forecasts have been raised for

Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Viet Nam and for several West African countries , whichbeneted from excellent growing conditions this season, aswell as Madagascar .

Compared with the previous season, the outlookfor world rice production in 2010/11 remains positive.The current estimate of 472 million tonnes puts globalproduction at 2.4 percent, or 11 million tonnes, more thanin 2009/10 when adverse weather conditions depressedrice output in Asia. The increase is expected to stem from a3 percent rebound in the world area planted to rice, whileyields are forecast to fall slightly to 2.88 tonnes (milled basis)per hectare. Much of the global production recovery wouldbe accounted for by India , where the pattern of this yearsmonsoon rains has been far more favourable than in 2009.According to the latest forecasts, Indias rice output may riseto a record 100 million tonnes, up from 89 million tonneslast season.

Notwithstanding the negative effects from drought,oods or typhoons, sizeable production gains are also

2 Production gures all expressed in milled rice equivalent.


26/119

26

Figure 18. World rice trade and FAO rice exportprice index

0

15

30

45

111009080706050403020

100

200

300

Million tonnes, milled eq. 2002-2004=100

Exports FAO Rice ExportPrice Index

estim. f cast

anticipated in Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, thePhilippines, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam on the back ofexpansionary programmes, which often promote the useof hybrid rice. On the other hand, reduced harvests arepredicted in Cambodia, the Democratic Republic ofKorea, Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, Myanmar,Pakistan, the Republic of Korea and Thailand, mostlyreecting the late arrival of the rainy season and thesubsequent excessive rains and storms. In Pakistan, the devastating August oods affected the important paddy-growing provinces of Balochistan, Punjab and Sindh,impairing 871 000 ha of rice plantings, mainly IRRI-6 ricevarieties, but largely sparing basmati rice crops. Overall, thecountry is estimated to have lost around 2 million tonnesof standing rice crop (milled basis), bringing the productionforecast down to 4.2 million tonnes, far less than the6.7 million tonnes reaped in 2009/10. In Africa, the outlookfor this seasons rice crops is generally positive, with a fewexceptions. Among these, the most important concernsEgypt , the leading African producer. Egypts output is setto contract by 18 percent as a result of a sharp reductionin plantings to comply with the government ceiling of 462000 ha (1.1 million feddan ), a measure intended to savewater. Apart from Egypt, Benin , Cameroon, Malawi,Mozambique and Rwanda may also face a contraction,mostly associated with negative growing conditions.

The situation in these countries contrasts with sweepingproduction gains expected in the rest of the region, withparticularly large increases forecast in Burkina Faso, Chad,Cote dIvoire, the Gambia, Guinea, Madagascar, Mali,Mauritania, Nigeria and Sierra Leone, on the backof generally good rainfalls and continued developmentassistance to the sector. In Latin America and the Caribbean,where the largest producers are already preparing forthe new season, rice crops harvested early this yearwere substantially short of the previous seasons level inArgentina, Brazil and Uruguay , reecting the late arrival ofrains at the end of 2009 followed by excessive precipitationand limited sunshine. Production is also expected to fall inBolivia, Chile, Peru and Venezuela , following a cutbackof plantings, often associated with unsatisfactory producerprices. By contrast, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico and Paraguay are foreseen to harvest larger crops this season.

In the other regions, USDAs forecast as ofNovember 2010 put production in the United States at arecord 7.397 million tonnes, 7 percent above the previousseason, much less than had been predicted in the past

few months. The increase in the United States this seasoncan be credited to a 17 percent expansion of plantings,as erratic weather conditions in the south central states

impaired yields. Larger water entitlements to producersboosted production in Australia to its highest level since2006, with further large output increases predicted for2011. By contrast, smaller harvests in France and Italy,which experienced unfavourable weather conditions, are

foreseen to reduce the EUs rice production by 4 percent to2.1 million tonnes.

Larger imports by Asian countries to boost ricetrade in 2010FAO estimates of global rice trade in calendar 2010 standsat some 30.8 million tonnes, 5 percent, or about 1.5 milliontonnes more than in 2009. The increase in 2010 worldimports is being sustained through purchases by Asiancountries, in particular Bangladesh, Mainland China,Indonesia and the Philippines , most of which wereconducted under the aegis of government agencies with thepurpose of taming domestic ination. Deliveries to Brazil,EU and Nigeria are also predicted to end somewhat higherthan last year.

The United States and Viet Nam are foreseen toaccount for much of the anticipated expansion of worldexports in 2010, with shipments from both nations recordingdouble digit growth. Reecting very large deliveries before

the oods, Pakistans sales i

2011world food outlook

Documents