2012 annual conference - ishc · 16% 1 1 1 1 1 1 r y y sept v yr+1 yr+1 yr+1 yr+1 yr+1 yr+1 yr+2...

ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON!

2012 Annual Conference

InterContinental Buckhead Atlanta, Georgia September 20-23, 2012

THE HEAT IS ON! A New World Competition

Going for Gold! Review of Global Hotel Performance with

a focus on Olympic performance

Elizabeth Winkle, STR Global


Est. in ‘08 – merger btwn STR, Deloi9e’s Hotel Benchmark, The Bench Headquartered in London with 10 offices in 9 countries Remit ROW = Rest Of the World all countries except US, Canada, Mexico & Carribbean

Report on 2.2 million rooms outside North America in 143 countries 30% brand vs. 70% independent

Who is STR Global


Top 10 Markets by # of Participating Rooms

China -‐ 355K Japan -‐ 103K

UK -‐ 304K Italy -‐ 79K

Germany -‐ 161K UAE -‐ 54K

Spain -‐ 122K India -‐ 54K

Australia -‐ 106K France -‐ 47K


Global overview – mixed results Spotlight on Europe – stabilising demand, muted new supply Olympics – London & past Olympic ci\es performance Forecast – what does the future hold for the end of 2012?

Agenda


Global RevPAR Percent Change (in $USD except Europe) Annual 2010, 2011 & YTD August 2012

Europe € 2010 2011 YTD 2012 +9.9% +5.8% +5.3%

Southern Africa $ 2010 2011 YTD 2012 +14.1% -‐2.1% -‐3.5%

Asia Pacific $ 2010 2011 YTD 2012 +21.3% +9.8% +3.3%

South America $ 2010 2011 YTD 2012 +19.0% +19.5% -‐1.8%

North America $ 2010 2011 YTD 2012 +6.1% +8.0% +6.8%

Central America $ 2010 2011 YTD 2012 +6.3% +0.5% -‐0.6%

Middle East $ 2010 2011 YTD 2012 -‐4.4% +4.1% +7.0%

Northern Africa $ 2010 2011 YTD 2012 +11.4% -‐36.2% +10.5%


Demand growth w/muted supply growth YTD 2012, YOY % change, supply, demand, revPAR USD$

SUPPLY

DEMAND

ISHC Annual Conference – THE HEAT IS ON! 7

Asia Pacific in detail – RevPAR growth except C&S

YTD 2012 Occ ADR RevPAR RevPar%

Total 66% $139 $92 +3.3% C&S Asia 59% $142 $84 -14.0% NE Asia 65% $128 $83 +6.7% SE Asia 70% $135 $95 +4.0% Australia &Oceania 72% $174 $126 +3.0%

Jan-Aug 2012


Selected Asia Pacific Markets Jan-‐Aug 12, %chg, Occ and ADR (local currency)


MEA by region – RevPAR growth in ME; rebound in N. Africa

YTD 2012 Occ ADR RevPAR RevPAR%

Total 59% $158 $94 +7.0% Middle East 64% $197 $127 +8.9% Northern Africa 50% $84 $41 +10.5% Southern Africa 58% $132 $76 -3.5%

Jan-Aug 2012


Selected MEA Markets Jan-‐Aug 12, %chg, Occ and ADR (local currency)


Americas – Rate Growth across the board

YTD 2012 Occ ADR RevPAR RevPAR%

Total Americas 63% $108 $68 +6.6% North America 63% $107 $67 +6.8% Caribbean 70% $181 $127 +11.2% Central America 61% $117 $72 -0.6% South America 65% $143 $93 -1.8%

Jan-July 2012


Selected Central & S. American Mkts Jan-‐Aug 12, %chg, Occ and ADR (local currency)


Europe in detail – RevPAR growth in all regions

Occ ADR RevPAR RevPAR% Total 66% €105 €69 +5.3% Eastern 60% €89 €52 +9.3% Northern 70% €100 €70 +9.6% Southern 62% €105 €65 +1.8% Western 66% €115 €75 +2.4%

Jan-Aug YTD 2012


Selected European Markets Jan-‐July 12, %chg, Occ and ADR (local currency)



Agenda


European long-term view Seasonal adjusted supply, demand (# monthly rooms), RevPAR


European long-term view YOY percentage change for occupancy and ADR €


Spotlight on downturn YOY percentage change for occupancy and ADR €


Europe € - taking longer to recover Total Europe, ADR Euros €, 12 MMA 2008 – YTD 2012

90.00

92.00

94.00

96.00

98.00

100.00

102.00

104.00

106.00

108.00

110.00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2 0 1 2

-‐13%

23 months

Apr ’08 €107

Feb ’10 €93

+9.6%

29 months

July ‘12 €102



Agenda


19 July – 4 August 15 September – 1 October

13 – 29 August 8 -‐24 August

27 July – 12 August


London 2012 July/Aug/Sept 2012 daily ADR performance

Source: Le Petit Prince, Antoine de Saint-Exupery


London 2012 June to 10 Sept daily ADR performance


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16% Ja

n Y

R-1

Mar

YR

-1

May

YR

-1

Jul Y

R-1

Sep

YR

-1

Nov

YR

-1

Jan

Mar

May

July

Sept

Nov

Jan

YR

+1

Mar

YR

+1

May

YR

+1

Jul Y

R+1

Sep

YR

+1

Nov

YR

+1

Jan

YR

+2

Mar

YR

+2

May

YR

+2

Jul Y

R+2

Sep

YR

+2

Nov

YR

+2

Atlanta

Sydney

Athens

Beijing

London

Supply in Olympic Cities Daily # Census % change YOY


-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Jan

YR

-1

Mar

YR

-1

May

YR

-1

Jul Y

R-1

Sep

YR

-1

Nov

YR

-1

Jan

Mar

May

July

Sept

Nov

Jan

YR

+1

Mar

YR

+1

May

YR

+1

Jul Y

R+1

Sep

YR

+1

Nov

YR

+1

Jan

YR

+2

Mar

YR

+2

May

YR

+2

Jul Y

R+2

Sep

YR

+2

Nov

YR

+2

Atlanta

Sydney

Athens

Beijing

London

Demand in Olympic Cities Monthly occupied rooms % change YOY


-20%

30%

80%

130%

180%

230%

280%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Atlanta

Sydney

Athens

Beijing

London

ADR in Olympic Cities ADR local currency % change YOY during Olympic year


So were we fully booked? Occupancy achieved during the Olympic Year


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

£0

£50

£100

£150

£200

£250

06/01/2012

06/04/2012

06/07/2012

06/10/2012

06/13/2012

06/16/2012

06/19/2012

06/22/2012

06/25/2012

06/28/2012

07/01/2012

07/04/2012

07/07/2012

07/10/2012

07/13/2012

07/16/2012

07/19/2012

07/22/2012

07/25/2012

07/28/2012

07/31/2012

08/03/2012

08/06/2012

08/09/2012

08/12/2012

08/15/2012

08/18/2012

08/21/2012

08/24/2012

08/27/2012

08/30/2012

09/02/2012

09/05/2012

09/08/2012

ADR Occupancy

London: Seasonally adjusted 1st June to 8th Sept

Including Para Olympics


Year-end results for past Olympic cities % change, local currency

London forecast Aug 2012



Agenda


Expect Slowing Eurozone GDP / Demand % Change

*Eurozone Demand & GDP % Change, Quarterly 2004 – 2014F GDP Source: Oxford Economics


Forecast – Selected Markets 2012 RevPAR forecast % chg, local currency as per August 2012 edition

Declines expected Growth expected

Athens Amsterdam Dubai Rome

Madrid Barcelona Dublin Singapore

Regional UK Beijing Hong Kong Sydney

Milan Berlin London Tokyo

Zurich Brussels Moscow Vienna

Budapest

Prague Warsaw

Copenhagen Paris Luxury & Upper Upscale


STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.

Contact details

Elizabeth Winkle 0207 922 1968

[email protected]

www.strglobal.com You can follow us on Twitter, Facebook,

LinkedIn

2012 annual conference - ishc · 16% 1 1 1 1 1 1 r y y sept v yr+1 yr+1 yr+1 yr+1 yr+1 yr+1 yr+2...

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