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DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRIES Wine Grape Crush Survey Murray Darling / Swan Hill 2012

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Page 1: 2012 draft 5 Wine Grape Crush Survey, Murray Darling ... Grape Crush Survey Murray Darling...Wine Grape Crush Survey Murray Darling / Swan Hill ... 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRIES

Wine Grape Crush Survey

Murray Darling / Swan Hill

2012

Page 2: 2012 draft 5 Wine Grape Crush Survey, Murray Darling ... Grape Crush Survey Murray Darling...Wine Grape Crush Survey Murray Darling / Swan Hill ... 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
Page 3: 2012 draft 5 Wine Grape Crush Survey, Murray Darling ... Grape Crush Survey Murray Darling...Wine Grape Crush Survey Murray Darling / Swan Hill ... 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The information contained in this survey was collected, analysed and published by Department of Primary Industries, on behalf of the Murray Valley Wine Grape Industry Advisory Committee, comprising winery and grower representatives from the Murray Darling and Swan Hill regions. The publication of this survey is made possible through the support of the wineries that processed fruit from Murray Darling and/or Swan Hill vineyards in 2012. REPORT PREPARATION

Kristen Pitt Department of Primary Industries Centre for Environmental Sciences TER 4, Ernest Jones Drive Macleod VIC 3085 Tel.: (03) 8458 2600 Email: [email protected]

Additional copies of this report are available from: www.murrayvalleywinegrapes.com.au or by contacting the Department of Primary Industries - Mildura.

COPYRIGHT

This publication is copyright. Apart from fair dealing for the purpose of private study, research, criticism, or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without the written permission of Department of Primary Industries, Victoria. © State of Victoria, Department of Primary Industries, 2012

DISCLAIMER

This publication may be of assistance to you, but the State of Victoria, its employees and members of the Murray Valley Wine Grape Industry Advisory Committee do not guarantee that the publication is written without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication.

If you would like to receive this information/publication in an accessible format (such as large print or audio) please call the Customer Service Centre on: 136 186, TTY: 1800 122 969, or email [email protected]

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INTRODUCTION Wine grape crush surveys are carried out in the Murray Darling and Swan Hill regions annually to provide early and accurate estimates of the tonnes and prices of grapes purchased and grown by wineries. These surveys also provide information on the estimated tonnes to be purchased and grown over each of the subsequent two years, together with an assessment of the tonnes that wine makers would prefer to receive.

The data is provided voluntarily by wineries on the understanding and guarantee that data for individual wineries will not be released. Only aggregated data is reported.

DATA REQUESTED FROM WINERIES Wineries are asked to provide the following information by variety and region:

Tonnes Purchased

The tonnages purchased from independent grape growers.

Tonnes Own Grown

The tonnages the winery itself has grown.

Tonnes Preferred

The tonnages the wineries would have preferred to crush in the current vintage.

Committed Intake – Own Grapes, Committed Intake – Purchased Grapes, Total Required Intake for the next 2 years

The tonnages wineries are committed to crush for the next 2 years, and they would prefer to crush assuming no limitations on equipment, supplies etc.

Purchase Prices

The highest and lowest price paid for each variety and the total purchase value (post receival price, not including freight or end use bonuses) for each variety purchased.

Tonnes crushed for concentrate and distillate – 2012 vintage

Due to the 2010-11 seasonal conditions, wineries were asked to report on tonnes of grapes crushed for concentrate and distillate. This data was again requested for the 2012 for comparison.

DATA QUALITY Responses were not received from all wineries sent survey forms and some wineries may not have been approached. The absolute tonnages should, therefore, be treated with care. A proportion of wineries did not supply all the data requested. This was particularly true of price data and future estimates.

The data has been checked exhaustively to eliminate transcription and analysis errors and to reduce, where possible, errors in data supplied by wineries. The data on the current vintage can be considered as accurate as possible.

The projections are a snapshot of the views of wine makers or company executives at the time of the survey. They are subject to variation with market fluctuations and changes in production over subsequent years. The projections are imperfect and will almost certainly vary with time.

DATA TREATMENT All data provided by the wineries has been aggregated. Under an agreement with the wineries covering the provision of data, disaggregation is not permitted. It is not possible to provide data from individual wineries.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section 1 Summary Data & Yearly Trends ...........................................................................................................................................................5

Total tonnes crushed and total crop value............................................................................................................................................6

Actual and preferred tonnages since 2007...........................................................................................................................................7

Historical trends in production ..............................................................................................................................................................8

Historical trends in estimated value of purchased fruit compared to total crush ..................................................................................9

Actual and preferred tonnages by variety...........................................................................................................................................10

Percentage of total crush by variety ...................................................................................................................................................11

Section 2 Price & Tonnage Data..........................................................................................................................................................................12

Notes on information provided in Section 2........................................................................................................................................13

Intake and price summary data by variety for red grapes ..................................................................................................................14

Intake and price summary data by variety for white grapes ...............................................................................................................15

Intake and price summary data by variety for red grapes: Murray Darling & Swan Hill based wineries only ....................................16

Intake and price summary data by variety for white grapes: Murray Darling & Swan Hill based wineries only .................................17

Section 3 Estimates of Expected & Preferred Intakes ......................................................................................................................................18

Notes on information provided in Section 3........................................................................................................................................19

Section 4 Trend Graphs for Selected Varieties .................................................................................................................................................25

Notes on information provided in Section 4........................................................................................................................................26

List of Wineries Returning Survey Forms................................................................................................................................................................40

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 5 -

Summary Data and Yearly Trends

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 6 -

TOTAL TONNES CRUSHED AND TOTAL CROP VALUE – Wine only

Total winery grown

Total purchased Total crushed (supply)

Total preferred (demand)

Tonnes from other growers as % of total

% of demand supplied

Estimated value of purchased grapes

Estimated value of total crush

Red 16,427 100,261 116,688 119,271 86% 98% $37,580,296 $43,671,305

White 26,432 170,234 196,666 181,139 87% 109% $57,264,066 $65,529,062

Total 42,859 270,495 313,354 300,410 86% 104% $94,844,362 $109,200,367

TOTAL TONNES CRUSHED AND TOTAL CROP VALUE – Wine and Concentrate

Total winery grown

Total purchased Total crushed (supply)

Total preferred (demand)

Tonnes from other growers as % of total

% of demand supplied

Estimated value of purchased grapes

Estimated value of total crush

Red 18,094 100,261 118,355 120,971 85% 98% $37,580,296 $44,294,455

White 28,663 172,520 201,183 185,239 93% 109% $57,874121 $80,235,737

Total 46,757 272,781 319,538 306,210 89% 104% $95,454,540 $124,530,192

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 7 -

ACTUAL AND PREFERRED TONNAGES SINCE 2007

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Crushed

Preferred

Crushed 355,389 365,211 375,323 328,147 256,398 280,806 313,354 319,538

Preferred 404,498 341,353 329,950 314,610 318,243 325,283 300,410 306,210

2007 2008 2009 20102011 - Wine

only

2011 - Wine +

Concentrate

2012 - Wine

only

2012 - Wine +

Concentrate

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 8 -

HISTORICAL TRENDS IN PRODUCTION

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 9 -

HISTORICAL TRENDS IN ESTIMATED VALUE OF PURCHASED FRUIT COMPARED TO TOTAL CRUSH

$0

$50,000,000

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

$250,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harvest Year

Es

tim

ate

d V

alu

e

Purchased - wine only ($)

Crushed - wine only ($)

Purchased - wine + concentrate ($)

Crushed - wine + concentrate ($)

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 10 -

ACTUAL AND PREFERRED TONNAGES BY VARIETY– Wine only

Red Varieties

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Shiraz Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot Pinot Noir

Variety

To

nn

es

Crushed

Preferred

White Varieties

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Chardonnay Sauvignon

Blanc

Muscat Gordo

Blanco

Pinot Gris Colombard Semillon Other White Canada

Muscat

Variety

To

nn

es

Crushed

Preferred

Note: Varieties with both crushed and preferred less than 2000 tonnes are not represented in these graphs.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 11 -

PRECENTAGE OF TOTAL CRUSH BY VARIETY– Wine only

Red Varieties

Shiraz

42%

Petit Verdot

1%

Ruby Cabernet

1%

Cabernet Sauvignon

28%

Merlot

24%

Pinot Noir

4%Shiraz

Cabernet Sauvignon

Merlot

Pinot Noir

Ruby Cabernet

Petit Verdot

White Varieties

Riesling

1%Viognier

1%Sultana

1%

Canada Muscat

1%

Semillon

7%

Other White

2%

Colombard

7%

Pinot Gris

10%

Muscat Gordo Blanco

11%Sauvignon Blanc

13%

Chardonnay

45%

Muscat a Petit Grains Blanc

1%

Muscat a Petit Grains Blanc

Sultana

Viognier

Riesling

Canada Muscat

Other White

Semillon

Colombard

Pinot Gris

Muscat Gordo Blanco

Sauvignon Blanc

Chardonnay

Note: Varieties with both crushed and preferred less than 1000 tonnes are not represented in these graphs.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 12 -

Price and Tonnage Data

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NOTES ON INFORMATION PROVIDED IN SECTION 2

Total crush

The total tonnes of grapes crushed from the Murray Darling / Swan Hill regions whether processed in that region, another region in Victoria or interstate. All wineries in Australia who source fruit from Murray Darling / Swan Hill vineyards are included in the survey collection process. Reported fruit is separated into fruit produced from the winery’s own vineyards (“own grown”) and from independent grower owned vineyards (“purchased”).

Tonnes Purchased as % of Total

This statistic is calculated by dividing the tonnes purchased from independent growers (total other growers) by the total tonnes crushed. This figure is then expressed as a percentage. It indicates the proportion of grapes purchased from independent growers.

Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price)

Calculated by dividing the total purchase value (post receival price, not including freight or end use bonuses) for a variety (summed across all wineries) by the total tonnes of the same variety purchased from other growers.

Winery grown grapes are not included in the calculation of the Calculated Average Purchase Value.

The Calculated Average Purchase Value in this report is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.

Lowest and Highest Prices

Wineries are asked to report the highest and lowest prices paid for any parcel of fruit of a particular variety, of any size. The highest of all highest prices and the lowest of all lowest prices are reported – provided that at least three wineries have provided this information for any particular variety.

The highest or lowest price may be for a very small parcel of fruit - and/or reflect an unusual pricing arrangement - eg payment by the hectare rather than per tonne, “spot market” sales of excess fruit etc.

Total value of purchased grapes

Calculated as the Calculated Average Purchase Value multiplied by the total tonnes purchased.

Estimated Total Value of All Grapes

Calculated as the Calculated Average Purchase Value of purchased fruit multiplied by the total tonnes crushed, for each variety.

If there is a variety where there are no purchases, then the average purchase value across all other varieties of the same colour in the same region is used to determine an estimated value for the own grown grapes. Discrepancies will appear in the estimated total value of all grapes and the estimated total value of purchased grapes if the average price is calculated.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 14 -

INTAKE AND PRICE SUMMARY DATA BY VARIETY FOR RED GRAPES – Wine only PURCHASED GRAPES SUMMARY

Variety Purchased

(t)

Lowest price ($/t)

Highest price ($/t)

Total value purchased grapes ($)

Tonnes purchased as a % of

total

Calculated average purchase

value ($/t)

Winery grown fruit (t)

Total crushed

(t)

Estimated total value

ALL grapes ($)

Black Muscat 102 $69,431 100% $681 0 102 $69,431

Cabernet Franc 3 $576 100% $225 0 3 $576

Cabernet Sauvignon 28,177 $148 $660 $11,291,764 88% $401 3,884 32,061 $12,848,237

Chambourcin 3 $576 100% $225 0 3 $576

Durif 106 $47,018 65% $443 58 164 $72,765

Gamay 3 $576 100% $225 0 3 $576

Grenache 844 $225 $400 $230,675 100% $273 0 844 $230,675

Malbec 186 $225 $600 $96,505 100% $518 0 186 $96,505

Mataro (Mourvedre) 122 $330 $400 $45,760 100% $375 0 122 $45,760

Merlot 22,136 $225 $660 $8,379,755 83% $379 4,614 26,750 $10,126,244

Muscat Brown (Red Front)

296 $202,060 100% $682 0 296 $202,060

Nebbiolo 0 $0 0% 8 8 $2,998

Other Red (group together)

81 $225 $750 $46,111 68% $572 39 120 $68,418

Petit Verdot 1,008 $250 $500 $306,059 93% $304 78 1,086 $329,810

Pinot Noir 3,935 $225 $450 $1,488,303 97% $378 125 4,060 $1,535,573

Rubired 8 $3,200 100% $400 0 8 $3,200

Ruby Cabernet 144 $45,854 10% $319 1,326 1,470 $469,157

Sangiovese 367 $250 $635 $122,022 63% $333 213 580 $192,861

Shiraz 42,373 $159 $600 $15,079,125 88% $356 6,028 48,401 $17,224,404

Tannat 72 $225 $400 $28,299 69% $394 33 105 $41,308

Tempranillo 290 $0 $350 $94,876 94% $327 20 310 $101,510

Zinfandel 7 $1,750 100% $250 0 7 $1,750

Total Red winegrapes 100,261 $0 $0 $37,580,296 86% 16,427 116,688 $43,664,393

** The Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price or WAP) is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 15 -

INTAKE AND PRICE SUMMARY DATA BY VARIETY FOR WHITE GRAPES – Wine only PURCHASED GRAPES SUMMARY

Variety Purchased

(t)

Lowest price ($/t)

Highest price ($/t)

Total value purchased grapes ($)

Tonnes purchased as a % of

total

Calculated average purchase

value ($/t)

Winery grown fruit (t)

Total crushed

(t)

Estimated total value

ALL grapes ($)

Arneis 17 $12,645 100% $750 0 17 $12,645

Canada Muscat 2,146 $1,196,523 99% $558 20 2,166 $1,207,675

Chardonnay 76,772 $150 $712 $22,529,282 85% $293 13,602 90,374 $26,520,825

Chenin Blanc 83 $19,898 100% $240 0 83 $19,898

Colombard 13,396 $200 $385 $2,972,365 94% $222 835 14,231 $3,157,660

Crouchen 0 $0 0% 288 288 $96,958

Marsanne 5 $1,250 100% $250 0 5 $1,250

Muscadelle (Tokay) 18 $7,641 100% $425 0 18 $7,641

Muscat Blanc (Frontignac)

1,105 $375 $550 $476,973 100% $432 0 1,105 $476,973

Muscat Gordo Blanco 20,781 $245 $550 $8,317,090 95% $400 1,186 21,967 $8,791,910

Orange Muscat 256 $410 $600 $122,577 100% $478 0 256 $122,577

Other White (group together)

4,149 $250 $840 $1,855,000 99% $447 40 4,189 $1,872,883

Pedro Ximenes 0 $0 0% 10 10 $3,372

Pinot Gris 17,690 $270 $651 $9,002,688 94% $509 1,133 18,823 $9,579,300

Riesling 776 $295 $550 $276,979 54% $357 664 1,440 $513,944

Sauvignon Blanc 21,405 $0 $485 $7,162,117 86% $335 3,625 25,030 $8,375,125

Semillon 8,611 $0 $600 $2,511,077 66% $292 4,421 13,032 $3,800,414

Sultana 1,346 $150 $220 $295,650 100% $220 0 1,346 $295,650

Taminga 112 $39,092 90% $350 12 124 $43,292

Verdelho 444 $111,110 55% $250 366 811 $202,714

Viognier 1,123 $0 $520 $353,923 83% $315 229 1,351 $426,047

Total White winegrapes 170,234 $0 $0 $57,263,879 87% 26,432 196,666 $65,528,755

Grand Total All winegrapes

270,496 $94,844,175 86% 42,858 313,354 $109,193,147

** The Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price or WAP) is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 16 -

INTAKE AND PRICE SUMMARY DATA BY VARIETY FOR RED GRAPES: MURRAY DARLING & SWAN HILL BASED WINERIES ONLY – Wine only PURCHASED GRAPES SUMMARY

Variety Purchased

(t)

Lowest price ($/t)

Highest price ($/t)

Total value purchased grapes ($)

Tonnes purchased as a % of

total

Calculated average purchase

value ($/t)

Winery grown fruit (t)

Total crushed

(t)

Estimated total value

ALL grapes ($)

Black Muscat 102 $69,431 100% $681 0 102 $69,431

Cabernet Franc 3 $576 100% $225 0 3 $576

Cabernet Sauvignon 22,577 $148 $517 $9,023,358 89% $400 2,832 25,410 $10,155,238

Chambourcin 3 $576 100% $225 0 3 $576

Durif 106 $47,018 65% $443 58 164 $72,765

Gamay 3 $576 100% $225 0 3 $576

Grenache 815 $225 $400 $221,211 100% $271 0 815 $221,211

Malbec 46 $26,675 100% $581 0 46 $26,675

Mataro (Mourvedre) 99 $38,018 100% $386 0 99 $38,018

Merlot 15,342 $225 $484 $5,959,070 77% $388 4,614 19,955 $7,751,088 Muscat Brown (Red Front) 296 $202,060 100% $682 0 296 $202,060

Nebbiolo 0 $0 0% 8 8 $2,990 Other Red (group together) 67 $225 $650 $36,061 63% $536 39 106 $56,983

Petit Verdot 833 $250 $500 $247,551 91% $297 78 911 $270,784

Pinot Noir 3,691 $225 $450 $1,393,736 97% $378 125 3,816 $1,440,929

Rubired 8 $3,200 100% $400 0 8 $3,200

Ruby Cabernet 0 $0 0% 1,326 1,326 $495,735

Sangiovese 328 $250 $350 $97,244 61% $297 213 541 $160,419

Shiraz 35,922 $159 $600 $12,644,986 89% $352 4,605 40,527 $14,265,916

Tannat 72 $225 $400 $28,299 69% $394 33 105 $41,308

Tempranillo 265 $0 $350 $88,066 93% $332 20 286 $94,788

Zinfandel 7 $1,750 100% $250 0 7 $1,750

Total Red winegrapes 80,585 $0 $0 $30,129,462 85% 13,951 94,536 $35,373,016

** The Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price or WAP) is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 17 -

INTAKE AND PRICE SUMMARY DATA BY VARIETY FOR WHITE GRAPES: MURRAY DARLING & SWAN HILL BASED WINERIES ONLY – Wine only

PURCHASED GRAPES SUMMARY

Variety Purchased

(t)

Lowest price ($/t)

Highest price ($/t)

Total value purchased grapes ($)

Tonnes purchased as a % of

total

Calculated average purchase

value ($/t)

Winery grown fruit (t)

Total crushed

(t)

Estimated total value

ALL grapes ($)

Canada Muscat 193 $77,036 91% $400 20 213 $85,036

Chardonnay 62,594 $225 $700 $18,027,139 82% $288 13,406 76,000 $21,888,046

Chenin Blanc 83 $19,898 100% $240 0 83 $19,898

Colombard 10,313 $200 $300 $2,258,668 93% $219 835 11,148 $2,441,569

Crouchen 0 $0 0% 288 288 $90,369

Marsanne 5 $1,250 100% $250 0 5 $1,250

Muscadelle (Tokay) 18 $7,641 100% $425 0 18 $7,641 Muscat Blanc (Frontignac) 396 $375 $550 $158,115 100% $400 0 396 $158,115

Muscat Gordo Blanco 19,391 $245 $550 $7,756,285 94% $400 1,186 20,577 $8,230,833

Orange Muscat 183 $78,573 100% $429 0 183 $78,573 Other White (group together) 1,684 $305 $700 $777,316 98% $462 40 1,724 $795,776

Pedro Ximenes 0 $0 0% 10 10 $3,142

Pinot Gris 8,635 $300 $500 $3,290,894 88% $381 1,133 9,768 $3,722,721

Riesling 362 $107,990 35% $298 664 1,026 $305,839

Sauvignon Blanc 16,314 $0 $400 $5,440,413 82% $333 3,625 19,939 $6,649,340

Semillon 7,137 $0 $600 $2,109,390 62% $296 4,421 11,558 $3,416,186

Sultana 1,075 $235,990 100% $220 0 1,075 $235,990

Taminga 112 $39,092 90% $350 12 124 $43,292

Verdelho 444 $111,110 55% $250 366 811 $202,714

Viognier 756 $0 $350 $179,095 77% $237 229 985 $233,281

Total White winegrapes 129,695 $40,675,894 83% 26,236 155,931 $48,609,609 Grand Total All winegrapes 210,279 $70,805,356 84% 40,187 250,466 $83,982,626

** The Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price or WAP) is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 18 -

Estimates of Expected and Preferred Intakes

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 19 -

NOTES ON INFORMATION PROVIDED IN SECTION 3 ESTIMATES OF EXPECTED AND PREFERRED INTAKES FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS

Committed intake – own grapes

The estimated tonnage of grapes sourced from winery owned or leased vineyards. This includes grapes owned by subsidiary or affiliated companies.

This figure takes into account intended new plantings that will come into bearing or intended removals during the projection period.

Committed intake – contracted purchases

Grapes wineries are committed to purchase in the projected year. Any arrangements that they consider to be binding are included. This may be written contracts or verbal agreements.

Only existing arrangements are reported. Planned or possible future contracts or renewals are not included.

Total required intake – demand

The total requirement for grapes to meet projected sales projections. This does not include planned purchases of bulk wine.

The % required/committed intake shows the percentage of the wineries’ requirement that is already committed for a given year. Eg a figure of 83% indicates that wineries already have contracts (or own grown fruit) to supply 83% of their demand for that year.

Note:

• Not all wineries provide estimates of future intakes - particularly for the later projected years. Therefore projections for later years tend to underreport actual demand. The projections of future intake should be interpreted and used cautiously. It should be noted that there is considerable variation from one survey to the next in demand projections for the same future projected year, as marketing indications change. The projections should only be interpreted as general indications of current levels of confidence, and trends in varietal preferences.

Wine grapes sought on the open market (possible spot market requirement)

This figure is inferred from the difference between committed intake (own grown & purchased) and total required intake.

Projected supply

This figure has been provided from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

Note:

• Projections regarding supply/demand should be regarded as a guide only. Growers should always conduct thorough research before committing to vine removals and planting. Consideration of new plantings should include whether secure markets will be available for the fruit when it comes into production. Increasingly, supply/demand is influenced by factors outside the region, i.e. over or under supply in other regions in Australia and elsewhere in the world, so regional figures must be considered in that context.

Wine grapes available on the open market

This figure is inferred from the difference between supply and committed intake (own grown & purchased).

Surplus or shortfall of grapes on the open market

The difference between wine grapes sought on the open market and wine grapes available on the open market. However, when both projected supply and committed intake is greater than total required intake (demand), then the surplus/shortfall is recorded as zero. A negative number indicates a shortfall and a positive number indicates surplus.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 20 -

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total committed

intake

Total required

intake (Demand)

% required intake that

is committed

Winegrapes sought on the open market

(Possible spot market requirement)

Projected Supply

Winegrapes available on

the open market

Surplus or shortfall of

grapes on the open market

Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of demand

Red wine grapes

2013 28,211 97,376 125,587 139,178 90% 13,591 145,817 20,230 6,639 5%

2014 28,329 89,298 117,627 140,672 84% 23,046

White wine grapes

2013 48,269 146,752 195,022 181,686 107% -13,336 217,783 22,761 22,761 13%

2014 47,592 130,266 177,858 181,963 98% 23,046

All wine grapes

2013 76,481 244,129 320,609 320,864 100% 255 363,601 42,992 42,737 13%

2014 75,921 219,563 295,485 322,636 92% 27,151

Red Wine Grapes

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2013 2014

Year

Tonnes

White Wine Grapes

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2013 2014

Year

All Wine Grapes

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2013 2014

Year

Tonnes

Total committed intake

Total required intake

(Demand)

Projected Supply

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 21 -

SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS – MAJOR VARIETIES

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total committed

intake

Total required

intake (Demand)

% required intake that

is committed

Winegrapes sought on the open market

(Possible spot market requirement)

Projected Supply

Winegrapes available on

the open market

Surplus or shortfall of

grapes on the open market

Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of

demand

Cabernet Sauvignon

2013 6,675 25,347 32,022 38,656 83% 6,634 38,923 6,901 267 1%

2014 6,792 23,377 30,169 39,221 77% 9,052

Chardonnay

2013 25,420 61,570 86,990 80,210 108% -6,780 100,782 13,792 13,792 17%

2014 23,890 57,002 80,891 80,663 100% -228

Colombard

2013 2,943 8,585 11,528 12,310 94% 782 20,091 8,563 7,781 63%

2014 3,414 8,382 11,797 12,310 96% 513

Cabernet Sauvignon

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2013 2014

Year

Tonnes

Chardonnay

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2013 2014

Year

Colombard

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2013 2014

Year

Total committed intake

Total required intake

(Demand)

Projected Supply

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 22 -

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total committed

intake

Total required

intake (Demand)

% required intake that

is committed

Winegrapes sought on the open market

(Possible spot market requirement)

Projected Supply

Winegrapes available on

the open market

Surplus or shortfall of

grapes on the open market

Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of

demand

Merlot

2013 6,914 20,533 27,447 31,230 88% 3,783 30,659 3,212 -571 -2%

2014 6,914 20,167 27,081 31,428 86% 4,347

Muscat Gordo Blanco

2013 1,479 24,236 25,715 26,975 95% 1,260 * Individual data based on Muscat Gordo Blanco no longer available from

2014 1,761 19,508 21,270 26,873 79% 5,604 ABARES

Petit Verdot

2013 551 1,261 1,812 2,173 83% 361 2,293 481 120 6%

2014 551 1,143 1,694 2,173 78% 479

Merlot

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2013 2014

Year

Tonnes

Muscat Gordo Blanco

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2013 2014

Year

Petit Verdot

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2013 2014

Year

Total committed intake

Total required intake

(Demand)

Projected Supply

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 23 -

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total committed

intake

Total required

intake (Demand)

% required intake that

is committed

Winegrapes sought on the open market

(Possible spot market requirement)

Projected Supply

Winegrapes available on

the open market

Surplus or shortfall of

grapes on the open market

Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of

demand

Pinot Gris/Grigio

2013 3,103 21,350 24,452 10,700 229% -13,752 17,158 -7,294 0* 0%

2014 3,103 19,087 22,189 10,780 206% -11,409

Riesling

2013 765 563 1,328 1,324 100% -4 2,423 1,095 1,095 83%

2014 765 383 1,148 1,324 87% 177

Sauvignon Blanc

2013 6,842 16,177 23,019 22,750 101% -270 18,953 -4,066 -3,797 -17%

2014 6,842 13,606 20,448 23,023 89% 2,575

Pinot Gris

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2013 2014

Year

Tonnes

Riesling

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2013 2014

Year

Sauvignon Blanc

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2013 2014

Year

Tonnes

Total committed intake

Total required intake

(Demand)

Projected Supply

*Figure intentionally reported as zero – please read the explanation given on page 19

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 24 -

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total committed

intake

Total required intake

(Demand)

% required intake that is committed

Winegrapes sought on the open market

(Possible spot market

requirement)

Projected Supply

Winegrapes available on the

open market

Surplus or shortfall of

grapes on the open market

Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of

demand

Semillon

2013 5,849 7,136 12,985 12,908 101% -77 11,107 -1,878 -1,801 -14%

2014 5,731 6,544 12,275 12,666 97% 391

Shiraz

2013 10,371 41,579 51,951 55,099 94% 3,148 60,328 8,377 5,229 9%

2014 10,371 36,823 47,194 55,806 85% 8,612

Sultana

2013 0 711 711 699 102% -12 * Individual data based on Sultana no longer available from ABARES

2014 0 571 571 571 100% 0

Semillon

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2013 2014

Year

Tonnes

Shiraz

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2013 2014

Year

Sultana

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2013 2014

Year

Total committed intake

Total required intake

(Demand)

Projected Supply

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 25 -

Trend Graphs for Selected Varieties

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 26 -

NOTES ON TREND GRAPHS PROVIDED IN SECTION 4

The following graphs show the historical trends in tonnages for the 3 years preceding the current vintage where data exists and for the next 1 year where projected data is available.

Possible spot market requirement (wine grapes sought on the open market)

This figure is inferred from the difference between committed intake (own grown & purchased) and total required intake.

Where data exists, graphs showing the historical trend in weighted average price for 5 years preceding the current vintage are also included. These graphs represent the Calculated Average Purchase Value per Tonne (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price) for all wine grapes purchased from the Murray Darling / Swan Hill regions, not only those purchased by Sunraysia wineries. Graphs have been provided for major varieties in the 2012 vintage. It is important to note that wineries were asked to only provide committed purchase figures on their existing arrangements. Planned or possible future contracts or renewals have not been taken into account in this figure. The projected spot market requirement may therefore change over time as contracts are renewed or new contracts signed.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 27 -

Cabernet Sauvignon

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Cabernet Sauvignon

0

5,00010,000

15,000

20,00025,000

30,000

35,000

40,00045,000

50,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Cabernet Sauvignon

$399

$637

$412

$313 $310

$401

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harvest Year

Va

lue

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 28 -

Chardonnay

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Chardonnay

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Chardonnay

$396

$521

$293

$224$251

$293

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harvest Year

Va

lue

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 29 -

Colombard

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Colombard

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Colombard

$297

$423

$283

$227$193

$222

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harvest Year

Valu

e

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 30 -

Merlot

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Merlot

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Merlot

$400

$598

$381

$301 $307$379

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harvest Year

Valu

e

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 31 -

Muscat Gordo Blanco

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Muscat Gordo Blanco

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Muscat Gordo Blanco

$374

$456

$366

$294$343

$400

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harvest Year

Valu

e

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 32 -

Petit Verdot

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Petit Verdot

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Value – Petit Verdot

$321

$619

$392

$295 $270$304

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harvest Year

Va

lue

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 33 -

Pinot Gris/Grigio

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Pinot Gris/Grigio

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Value – Pinot Gris/Grigio

$694 $700

$611$549

$430

$509

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harvest Year

Va

lue

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 34 -

Riesling

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Riesling

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Riesling

$506 $505

$381

$300

$233

$357

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harvest Year

Valu

e

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 35 -

Sauvignon Blanc

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Sauvignon Blanc

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Sauvignon Blanc

$516 $523

$456

$355$307

$335

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harvest Year

Valu

e

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 36 -

Semillon

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Semillon

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Semillon

$365

$472

$309

$249 $248$292

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harvest Year

Va

lue

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 37 -

Shiraz

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Shiraz

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Shiraz

$424

$642

$416

$310 $294$356

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harvest Year

Va

lue

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 38 -

Sultana Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Sultana

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Sultana

$241

$349

$272

$217 $226 $220

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Harvest Year

Valu

e

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 39 -

List of Wineries Returning Survey Forms

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2012 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 40 -

THANK YOU TO THE FOLLOWING WINERIES WHO RESPONDED TO THE 2012 SURVEY Accolade Wines Deakin Estate The Wine Group

Angoves Dorrien Estate Winery The Yalumba Wine Company

Australian Vintage Kingston Estate Wines Treasury Wine Estates

Austwine Viticulture Oak Valley Estate Boutique Winery Trentham Estate

Buller Wines Orlando Wines Vintage Traders

Casella Wines Qualia Wine Services Warburn Estate

De Bortoli Wines Red Cliffs Wines Zilzie Wines