2012 election overview
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The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE. The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE. 2012 Election Overview. 2012 Election Overview. PRESENTED BY: Hans Kaiser - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
2012 Election Overview
The National Association of Business Political Action Committees
2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE
The National Association of Business Political Action Committees
2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE
PRESENTED BY:Hans Kaiser
November 16, 2012
2012 Election Overview
State by State Voting
2
= Obama
= RomneyElectoral Votes
2008Obama 365McCain 173
2012Obama
332Romney
206
2012
Popular Vote
2008Obama 69,456,897 (+ 9.5 million)McCain 59,934,814
2012Obama 62,615,406 (+ 3.5 million)Romney 59,142,004 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION
COMMITTEES
Our 2010 NABPAC Presentation
• New 2012 Republican Total (179 electoral votes)• Florida (29 electoral votes)• Ohio (18 electoral votes)• North Carolina (15 electoral votes)• Virginia (13 electoral votes)• Indiana (11 electoral votes)
GOP nominee sits at:
3
265 Electoral Votes
THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES
New 2012 Republican Total (179 electoral votes)
Romney Net• Florida (29 electoral votes) - 0.9• Ohio (18 electoral votes) -1.9• North Carolina (15 electoral votes) +2.2• Virginia (13 electoral votes) -3.0• Indiana (11 electoral votes) +10.5
GOP nominee sits at:
4205 Electoral Votes
What Happened
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Swing States:Real Clear Politics – Polling Averages vs. Actual Results
RCP average Actual result
Net Obama over RCP average
CO Obama +1.5 Obama +4.7 +3.2
FL Romney +1.5 Obama +0.9 +2.4
IA Obama +2.4 Obama +5.6 +3.2
MN Obama +5.2 Obama +7.7 +2.5
MI Obama +4.0 Obama +9.5 +5.5
NC Romney +3.0 Romney +2.2 +0.8
NV Obama +2.8 Obama +6.6 +3.8
NH Obama +2.0 Obama +5.8 +3.8
OH Obama +2.9 Obama +1.9 -1.0
PA Obama +3.8 Obama +5.2 +1.4
VA Obama +0.3 Obama +3.0 +2.7
WI Obama +4.2 Obama +6.7 +2.5
Obama average over performance +2.6 5 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES
In each swing state the average Obama bump of 2.6% went toward Romney; Romney would have
won:
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
New Hampshire
Virginia
61 Electoral Votes
6
Total 267 Electoral Votes
What If … ?
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Each state swung toward Romney by the average Obama bump in that particular state, Romney
would have won those states:
Colorado 9
Florida 29
Iowa 6
Michigan 16
Nevada 6
New Hampshire 4
Virginia 13
83 Electoral Votes7
Total 289 Electoral Votes
And What If … ?
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Presidential Vote by Party ID
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
6%
45%
92%93%
50%
7%
Obama
Romney
8
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
9%
52%
89%90%
44%
10%
Obama
McCain
2012 2008
Network News Exit Polls
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Presidential Vote by Ethnicity
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
39%
93%
71% 73%
58%59%
6%
27% 26%
38%
Obama
Romney
-20
9
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
43%
95%
67%62%
66%
55%
4%
31%35%
31%
Obama
McCain
2012 2008
Network News Exit Polls
+8
+4
-8
+15
THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES
Presidential Vote by Gender/White
White men (34%)
White women (38%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
35%42%
62%56%
Obama
Romney
10
White men (36%)
White women (39%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
41%46%
57%53%
Obama
McCain
2012 2008
Network News Exit Polls
+11 +7
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Presidential Vote by Gender/Black
Black men (5%)
Black women (8%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
87%
96%
11%
3%
Obama
Romney
11
Black men (5%)
Black women (7%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100% 95% 96%
5% 3%
Obama
McCain
2012 2008
Network News Exit Polls
+14 +0
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Presidential Vote by Gender/Latino
Latino men (5%)
Latino women (6%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
65%
76%
33%
23%
Obama
Romney-1 -15
12
Latino men (4%)
Latino women (5%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
64%68%
33%30%
Obama
McCain
2012 2008
Network News Exit Polls
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Presidential Vote by Area of Residence
City (32%)
Suburbs (47%)
Rural (21%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
62%
48%
39%36%
50%
59%
Obama
Romney
+12
13
City (30%)
Suburbs (49%)
Rural (21%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
63%
50%45%
35%
48%53%
Obama
McCain
2012 2008
Network News Exit Polls
+2
+4
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Presidential Voting by 2011 Total Family Income
Under $30,000 (20%)
$30,000- $49,999
(21%)
$50,000- $99,000
(31%)
$100,000- $199,999
(21%)
$200,000- $249,999
(3%)
$250,000 or more
(4%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
63%57%
46% 44%47%
42%35%
42%
52% 54% 52%55%
Obama
Romney
14Network News Exit Polls
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$50K was the Dividing Line
Under $50,000 $50,000 or more
Obama Romney Obama Romney
NATIONAL 60% 38% 45% 53%
CO 59% 39% 49% 49%
FL 59% 40% 43% 55%
IA 59% 38% 48% 50%
MI 62% 36% 48% 51%
NC 55% 44% 45% 55%
NH 60% 38% 49% 49%
NV 67% 30% 42% 56%
OH 59% 39% 44% 55%
PA 67% 31% 43% 56%
VA 61% 37% 47% 52%
WI 62% 37% 45% 54%
15
2011 Total Family Income
Network News Exit Polls
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Most Important Issue
Which one of these four issues is the most important facing the country? Obama Romney
Net Obama
Economy (59%) 47% 51% -4%
Health care (18%) 75% 24% +51%
Federal budget deficit (15%) 32% 66% -34%
Foreign policy (5%) 56% 33% +23%
16Network News Exit Polls
• Obama won health care and foreign policy voters.• Romney won deficit voters.• Economy voters were divided. Romney needed to win these voters to win the election.
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Condition of Economy
Excellent (2%)
Good (21%)
Not so good (45%)
Poor (31%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%90%
55%
12%9%
42%
85%
Obama
Romney
NA NA
17
Do you think the condition of the nation’s economy is:
Network News Exit Polls
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Family Financial Situation
Better today (25%)
Worse today (33%)
About the same (41%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
84%
18%
58%
15%
80%
40%
Obama
Romney
18
Compared to four years ago, is your family’s financial situation:
Network News Exit Polls
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Blame for Economy? It’s Bush’s Fault
Na-tional
CO FL IA MI NC NH NV OH PA VA WI0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
38% 36%
42%37%
34%
40% 38% 38% 40%43% 41%
53% 51% 51% 53%57%
49%
57%52% 51% 52% 54%
Barack Obama
NA
19
Who is more to blame for current economic problems, Barack Obama or George W. Bush?
Network News Exit Polls
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Biggest Economic Problem
The housing market (8%)
Unemployment (38%)
Taxes (14%)
Rising prices (37%)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
63%
54%
32%
49%
32%
44%
66%
49%
Romney
Obama
20Network News Exit Polls
Which ONE of these four is the biggest economic problem facing people like you?
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Candidate Qualities
Shares my values (27%)
Is a strong leader (18%)
Cares about people like me (21%)
Has a vision for the future (29%)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
42%
38%
81%
45%
55%
61%
18%
54%
Romney
Obama
21Network News Exit Polls
Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for President?
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Obama Cares about People
Na-tional (21%)
CO (16%)
FL (19%)
IA (24%)
MI (23%)
NC (20%)
NH (21%)
NV (18%)
OH (22%)
PA (20%)
VA (22%)
WI (24%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
81%
90%
83% 84% 82%77%
83%
90%
83% 82% 82%86%
18%
7%
15% 14%17%
22%16%
9%15% 17% 17%
12%
Obama Romney
22
Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for President?
-Shares my values -Is a strong leader -Cares about people like me -Has a vision for the future
Network News Exit Polls
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Obama is More in Touch
Na-tional
CO FL IA MI NC NH NV OH PA VA WI0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
53% 51% 49%
55% 55%
49%
55%51% 50%
56%52% 52%
43% 42%46%
41% 39%
47%
42%44% 46%
41%45% 45%
Obama
Romney
23
Who is more in touch with people like you?
Network News Exit Polls
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Candidate Policies
The rich The middle class The poor0%
20%
40%
60%
10%
44%
31%
53%
34%
2%
Obama's policiesRomney's policies
24
Network News Exit Polls
Do Barack Obama’s/Mitt Romney’s policies generally favor:
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Vote for President
I strongly favor my candidate (65%)
I like my candidate but with reservations (23%)
I dislike the other candidate (10%)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
54%
42%
41%
45%
57%
51%
Romney
Obama
25Network News Exit Polls
Which best describes your vote for president today?
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What’s Ahead?
2008 2010 2012 2014
Republicans 32% 36% 32% ?
Independents
29% 28% 29% ?
Democrats 39% 36% 38% ?
27
Party ID
2008 2010 2012 2014
Liberals 22% 20% 25% ?
Moderates 44% 39% 41% ?
Conservatives
34% 41% 35% ?
Philosophy
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Network News Exit Polls
Income Taxes
Increase for all (13%)
Increase only on income over $250,000 (47%)
Not increase for anyone (35%)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
52%
70%
23%
44%
29%
75%
Romney
Obama
28Network News Exit Polls
Should income tax rates:
THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES
Taxes and the Deficit
Yes (33%)
No (63%)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
73%
37%
24%
61%
Romney
Obama
29Network News Exit Polls
Should taxes be raised to help cut the budget deficit?
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Illegal Immigrants
Offered a chance to apply for legal status (65%)
Deported to the country they came from (28%)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
61%
24%
37%
73%
Romney
Obama
30Network News Exit Polls
Should most illegal immigrants working in the United State be:
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Shift in Make-Up of Electorate’s White Voters in Key States
% White Voters
CO FL OH NV
2008 81% 71% 83% 69%
2012 78% 67% 79% 64%
Shift -3% -4% -4% -5%
31Network News Exit Polls
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Same-Sex Marriage
Yes (49%)
No (46%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
73%
25%25%
74%
Obama
Romney
32
Should your state legally recognize same-sex marriage?
Network News Exit Polls
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GOP Vote2008 2010 2012 2014
Independents
-8 +18 +5 ?
65+ +8 +21 +12 ?
Catholics -9 +10 -2 ?
Rural +8 +28 +20 ?
White +12 +23 +20 ?
Men -1 +14 +7 ?
Suburban -2 +13 +2 ?
Women -13 +1 -11 ?
33 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES
Network News Exit Polls
Contact Information
Moore Information2130 SW Jefferson Street
Suite 200 Portland, OR 97201
428 4th StreetSuite 8Annapolis, MD 21403
503.221.3100 410.216.9856
www.moore-info.com
Bob Moore, [email protected]
Hans Kaiser, [email protected]
www.facebook.com/mooreinformation
34 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES