2012 ten hypotheses for tech investing
TRANSCRIPT
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
1/35
Presenta(ontoSDVGVentureSummitRogerMcNamee
Eleva(onPartners
TenHypothesesforTechInves1ng
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
2/35
Investorsandentrepreneursriskmissing
ahugebusinessopportunitybecause
theyareusingthewrongvocabulary
Hypothesis#
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
3/35
Internet
WorldWideWebHTML4
998-2006:Internet+Web
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
4/35
Internet
WorldWide
Web
HTML4
AppModel
Carriers+WiFi
2007-Present:TwoSeparateMarkets
5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 5
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
5/35
WorldWide
Web
HTML4
AppModel
Internet Carriers+WiFi
2007-Present:Hypernet+Hyperweb
5/4/2012 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 6
Hyperweb
Hypernet
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
6/35
Businessesareadop(ngconsumer
technologybecauseitischeapertobuy,
cheapertosupport,andworksbeOer.
Hypothesis#2
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
7/35
Web=OnlyHalfofAddressableMarket
Hypernet
HTML4
Windows/IE
Mac/Safari
Search:Google
AppModel
+Carriers
Units/$===>
AppModel
iS
Android
Search:Apps
5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 8
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
8/35
Indexsearchs(llcontrolswiredweb;in
mobile,usecasesandbehaviorsare
different,resul(ngindifferentwinners
Hypothesis#3
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
9/35
AppsReplaceGoogleforMobileSearch
Hypernet
HTML4
100searches
AppModel
+Carriers
Units/$===>
AppModel
iPad:10
iPhone:1
5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 10
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
10/35
Hypernet
Google
MicrosoX
Facebook
CiscoOracle/Sun
SAP
Intel
Apple
Verizon
ATT
PublishersAmazon
B&N
WebWinnersHaveFailedtoProfitFromMobile
5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 11
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
11/35
Applesucceededbyhidingtechnology
whereverpossible...andsubs(tu(ng
style.
Hypothesis#4
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
12/35
Hypernet
HTML4
pensource
Longtail
FreeCommodi(zed
WildWest
AppModel
+Carriers
Units/$===>
AppModel
iS
Branded
Free+PaidDifferen(ated
Secure
$400-1,000
CustomersDontLovetheWeb
5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
13/35
Nextgenera(onwebtechnologywill
favorpublishers/consumersovermiddle
men
Hypothesis#5
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
14/35
Commodity
Content
HTML4Web
AppModel Future:HTML5
TechPendulumEnablingMoreContentDifferen1a1on
5/4/2012 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 15
Differen(ated
Content
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
15/35
HTML4Web
Engagement:MetricofValueforContent
4/4/2012 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 16
iOS HTML5Web
15-20secs/story
2-5mins/app
????
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
16/35
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
17/35
Flash
Flash
Flash
Flash
HTML4-Today HTML5-2014
HTML4
HTML4
HTML4
HTML4
HTML4
HTML5
HTML5=HigherProduc1onValues,LowerCost
5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 18
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
18/35
HTML5enables
everythingtobean
app,includingads
Adscanbe@ed
directlytocontent
Itmaybe2-3years
beforeHTML5tools
willenablethis
HTML5=EngagementandMone1za1on
STRY
Product1Product2
Product3
Product1*Product2*
Product3*
Adver(sement
5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 19
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
19/35
1. App:func@onslikeana@veapp
2.eBook:somethingtoreadlater
3. Bookmark+:contentavailable
forlaterreference
4. Layers
HTML5AppsMayHaveMul1pleForms
STRY
Product1Product2
Product3
Ticker1*Ticker2*
Ticker3*
StockTrading
App
5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 20
INFGRAPHIC
2
1
34
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
20/35
1. Appdelivery2. eBook:atomiza@on
ofcontentenablesincrementalrevenue
3. Contentavailableforlaterreferencecan
includemone@za@on
4. Layerscanincludemone@za@on
Mul1pleFormsofHighValueMone1za1on
STRY
Product1Product2
Product3
Ticker1*Ticker2*
Ticker3*
StockTrading
App
5/4/12HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee
21
INFGRAPHIC
2
1
34
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
21/35
World
Wide
Web
HTML4
AppModel
Units/$===>
HTML5
Google Apple ???
Content=
Commodity
Content=
Limited
Differen1a1on
Content=
Unlimited
Differen1a1on
Desktops SmartPhones Future
HTML5=WideOpenOpportunity
5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 22
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
22/35
Advantage
Scale
OpenSource
Cost
Control
Economics
Func1onality
iOS
???
HTML5
???
HTML5vsNa1veApps
5/4/12HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee
23
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
23/35
World
Wide
Web
HTML4
AppModel
Units/$===>
HTML5
Google Apple ???
Content=
Commodity
Content=
Limited
Differen1a1on
Content=
Unlimited
Differen1a1on
Desktops SmartPhones Future
HTML5=WideOpenOpportunity
5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 24
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
24/35
Childrenundertheageof8maynever
useaPCthewayyoudo.
Hypothesis#6
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
25/35
AnEight-YearOldsIdeaofaComputer
5/4/12HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee
26
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
26/35
Androidhasabrokeneconomicmodel;
cannotcompetewithAppleinthelong
term
Hypothesis#7
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
27/35
COGS
COGS
Apple Android
Applesgrossmarginisroughlyequaltogross
revenuesforacomparableAndroid
BrandisaHUGEAdvantage
5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 28
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
28/35
5/4/12
HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee
29
Android=EntropyatHighVelocity
Amazon
Barnes&NobleSamsung
Verizon
riginalAndroid
Standard
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
29/35
5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 30
Content Coolfactor
Techheatseeker
Inexpensive
SmartPhonePurchaseDrivers
Apple Android
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
30/35
SocialandMobilearenowacost,not
acompe((veadvantage
Hypothesis#8
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
31/35
TheCloudwillbehighlydistributed.
Homecloudsmayprovetobethemost
valuable.
Hypothesis#9
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
32/35
33
Content Coolfactor
Compe11onintheCloud
AppleGoogle
Amazon
Microso
SAP
Nelix
vvvv
v
v
PrivateandHomeClouds
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
33/35
Disrup(onofcable,satellite,andeven
NetFlixisbeginning.
Hypothesis#0
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
34/35
USeconomyisbeginningtoimprove,despiteeffortsinWashingtontoreducedeficit
DJIA,S&P,Nasdaqreflectrisingop(mism Unemploymentremainshigh;possiblystructural
Excessiveconsumerindebtednessactsasadragongrowth Governmentdeficitsactasadragonfuturegrowth
Warscompeteforresourceswithprivateeconomy IsIrannext?
Investorchallenge:whatisthehappyending?
Economic&MarketEnvironment
3/19/12 "TenHypotheses"byRogerMcNamee 35
-
7/31/2019 2012 Ten Hypotheses for Tech Investing
35/35
5/4/12 HowtoRevivetheWeb"byRogerMcNamee 36
Content Coolfactor
Techheatseeker
Inexpensive
Onward!!
hOp://www.moonalice.com
hOp://www.eleva(on.com