KAREN: FAVORABLE FACTORS: OCT. 3-5, 2013

2013 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASONJune 1 – December 30

OVER 100 YEARS OF HISTORY: ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC BASINS

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

•SEVERE WINDSTORMS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

SEVERE WINDSTORM SEVERE WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EARLY WARNING•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

Wind profileWind profile

Storm Hazards:Storm Hazards:-Wind pressure-Surge-Rain-Flood-Waves-Salt water-Missiles-Tornadoes

OceanOceanOceanOcean

Gradient WindGradient Wind

PRE-SEASONFORECAST OF THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC

ADMINISTRATION

FORECAST: 13-20 NAMED STORMS

WITH 7-10

BECOMING HURRICANES

STORM NAMES 2013 SEASON

CHRONOLOGY OF 2013’s STORMS

• ANDREA - Tropical Storm; June 5

• BARRY - Tropical Storm; June 19

• CHANTAL – Tropical Storm; July 7

• DORIAN – Tropical Storm; July 22

• ERIN – Tropical Storm; August 14

• FERNAND –Trop. Storm; August 16

• GABRIELLE – Trop. Storm; Aug. 25

CHRONOLOGY OF 2013’S STORMS

• HUMBERTO – Hurricane; Sept 10

• INGRID – Hurricane; Sept. 13

• JERRY – Tropical storm; Sept. 30

• KAREN – Tropical storm; Oct. 3

• LORENZO –

• MELISSA –

• NESTOR –

CHRONOLOGY OF 2013’S STORMS

• OLGA –

• PABLO –

• REBEKAH –

• SEBASTIEN –

• TANYA –

• VAN --

• WENDY --

STORM TRACKS OF ANDREA, BARRY, CHANTAL, AND DORIAN

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA ---

FIRST STORM OF 2013 SEASONA Rain Maker

ANDREA: JUNE 5, 2013

ANDREA’S IMPACTS

• The precursor to Andrea dropped nearly 12 inches (300 mm) of rainfall in the Yucatán Peninsula.

• In Cuba, the storm brought flooding, especially in the Pinar del Rio Province, and over 1,000 people fled their homes, mainly along the Cuyaguateje River. .

ANDREA’S IMPACTS

• In Florida, the storm brought heavy rainfall that caused localized flooding and five tornadoes that downed power lines and trees and caused significant roof damage.

• As Andrea died, heavy rains occurred in the Eastern United States and Atlantic Canada, causing flooding in Nova Scotia.

• .

TROPICAL STORM BARRY ---

SECOND STORM OF 2013 SEASONA Rain Maker and Power Disupter

BARRY: JUNE 19, 2013

BARRY’S IMPACTS

• In the Mexican state of Yucatan, wind gusted up to 48 mph (77 km/h) and heavy rains downed trees and power lines; more than 26,000 residents lost power after lightning struck a nearby power station and caused a fire.

• El Salvador experienced flooding.

BARRY’S IMPACTS

• Heavy rains in Honduras triggered flooding that damaged 60 homes and affected 300 people.

• In southern Belize, an estimated 10 in (250 mm) of rain fell in 24 hours, causing several rivers to over-top their banks and some to evacuate.]

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ---

THIRD STORM OF 2013 SEASONA Rain Maker

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL: JULY 8, 2013

A tropical storm warning was issued for Puerto Rico, Barbados, Dominica, Saint

Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, and Miami.

July 8th

CHANTAL’S IMPACTS

• Chantal produced heavy rainfall in Hispaniola, forcing thousands to evacuate their homes.

• In the Dominican Republic, flooding from the storm killed one person in Maimon.1]

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN

---FOURTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON

Rain in florida was Most Notable Impact

DORIAN

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ---

FIFTH STORM OF 2013 SEASONA Short Lived Storm With no Notable

Impact

TROPICAL STORM ERIN

TROPICAL STORM FERDNAND ---SIXTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON

Tropical Storm Ferdnand brought heavy rainfall near Veracruz,

killing fourteen

FERDNANDAUGUST 16, 2013

AUGUST 16th REVISED FORECAST OF THE

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

FORECAST: STILL AN ABOVE NOMAL SEASON, BUT ONLY 3 TO 5

MAJOR HURRICANES

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ---SEVENTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON

No Notable Impacts

GABRIELLE

ACTUAL STORM TRACKS AS OF

SEPTEMBER 15, 2013

SEPTEMBER 9th “2013 SEASON MAY GO IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS A “DUD””

REASONS FOR A SLOWLY DEVELOPING SEASON

REASONS FOR A SLOWLY DEVELOPING SEASON

• "A large area of high pressure over the central Atlantic has been very strong and very good at driving dry air southward into the tropics into September."

• Generally it is easier for tropical storms to form and tropical storms to streng-then into hurricanes when an un-obstructed supply of moisture available

REASONS FOR A SLOWLY DEVELOPING SEASON

• Frequent surges of wind shear [disruptive winds at mid-levels of the atmosphere] have occurred during the 2013 season.

• Wind shear tends to disrupt the circulation around a developing system, shearing off the top of the system or causing it to be very lop-sided.

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ---EIGHTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON

Became Season’s 1st Hurricane

DISSIPATED QUICKLY DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR IN ATMOSPHERE

HUMBERTO: SEPTEMBER 9-11, 2013

TROPICAL STORM INGRID ---

NINTH STORM OF 2013 SEASONBecame Season’s 2nd Hurricane

September 13

A RAINMAKER IN MEXICO THAT

CAUSED DEATHS

INGRID: NEADED FOR MEXICO SEPTEMBER 13, 2013

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ---

TENTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON

September 30

DIED BEFORE IT COULD DO ANYTHING

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ---

ELVENTH STORM OF 2013 SEASON

October 3

EXPECTED TO BE A RAINMAKER

IN THE USA

KAREN: HEADED FOR USA LANDFALL: OCT. 3, 2013

KAREN: FAVORABLE FACTORS: OCT. 3-5, 2013

LOOKING BACK AT 2012

2012’s ACTUAL STORMS EXCEEDED THE FORECAST

FORECAST: 15 NAMED STORMS

WITH 4-8

BECOMING HURRICANES

ACTUAL: TWENTY NAMED STORMS; 10 HURRICANES

NAMED STORMS IN 2012

• ALBERTO - Tropical storm; May 19

• BERYL - Tropical storm; May 27

• CHRIS – Hurricane; June 21

• DEBBY – Tropical storm; June 23

• ERNESTO –Hurricane; Aug 3

• FLORENCE –Tropical storm: Aug 5

• GORDON –Hurricane, August 16

NAMED STORMS FOR 2012

• HELENE –Tropical Storm, Aug. 19

• ISAAC – Hurricane, August 21

• JOYCE –Tropical Storm, Aug. 25

• KIRK –Tropical Storm. Aug. 27

• LESLIE –Hurricane, Sept. 5

• MICHAEL –Hurricane, Sept. 5

• NADINE – Hurricane, Sept. 12

NAMED STORMS IN 2012

• OSCAR – Tropical Storm; Oct. 4

• PATTY – Tropical Storm; Oct. 11

• RAFAEL – Hurricane; October 12

• SANDY– A Super Hurricane; October 22

• TONY – Tropical Storm; Oct. 24

SANDY: A $300 BILLION STORM; OCTOBER 24, 2012

Sandy, 2012’s ninth hurricane, became a huge storm with wind and rain bands reaching out 500 km or more from the

storm center, producing 15-50 cm of rain and flooding in Jamaica, Bermuda, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Cuba, New Jersey,

and New York

CAT I HURRICANE SANDY: OCTOBER 24

SUPER STORM SANDY: OCT. 29-30, 2012

SANDY: RAIN IN HAITI

SANDY: RAIN IN CUBA

NEW JERSEY: ATLANTIC CITY UNDER WATER

NEW JERSEY: OCEAN FRONT FLOODING

NEW JERSEY: STREETS FLOODED

FLOODING IN BROOKLYN, NY

$360 MILLION STORM SURGE, NEW HAVEN, CT: OCT. 30