2013 Economic Outlook Professor Martin Shields CSU Regional Economics Institute The Recovery The Important Economic Issues The recovery will slowly continue picking up steam Unemployment will remain relatively high Falling real household income has had large negative effects on the region GDP Growth Tepid, but Sustained 12 Month Change Source: US Department of Commerce The Output Gap is Large Source: St. Louis Fed Inflation Remains in Check Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Sentiment Still Low Source: University of Michigan New Housing Starts: WTF? Source: US Census Bureau US Employment Below 2007 Peak present Source: Current Employment Survey Unemployment Improving Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Regional Unemployment Rate Mixed Colorado Rate: 7.3 percent Source: BLS Stagnant Incomes median family income inflation adjusted Source: US Census Bureau The Local Situation With 228,000 jobs Northern Colorado has 7,000 more jobs than it did 5 years ago Over the past 12 months it has added 5,000 Stagnant wages and income remains a challenge 3 Years of Job Growth Source: Current Employment Survey/Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado State University Northern Colorado Job Levels Exceed Pre-Recessionary Totals Great Recession Source: Current Employment Survey US about 98.5 percent Weld Has Seen Manufacturing and Mining Increase Job Change: 2007Q Q3 +2,300 jobs Source: QCEW/Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado State University Health Care Main Larimer Driver Job Change: 2007Q Q3 +1,600 Jobs Source: QCEW/Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado State University Local Industry Watch Poised to grow Energy Health care Professional & business services Wholesale trade Continued struggles Government Financial activities Information