2013 tobacco industry seminar crop production intelligence
TRANSCRIPT
2013 Tobacco Industry Seminar
CROP PRODUCTION INTELLIGENCE
Registration
1st - Planting Estimate
2nd Crop assessment
3rd Crop Assessment
Customer
Merchant
Government
Crop Size Announced
Actual 145 mil kgs?
Actual 175 mil kgs?
Current System
3
What is Crop Production Intelligence
• Crop Intelligence is the exercise of finding out crop volumes and quality
4
WHY IS IT DONE?
• The Government needs to know how much volume will
be produced in order to plan accordingly
• Merchants need to establish crop size in relation to
demand
5
Impact Of Wrong Crop Intelligence
• Economic and financial ramifications
• Credibility of Crop Intelligence
• Impacts all planning and budgets
• Creates anxiety
6
Crop Intelligence Results in million kgs2005 - 2013
YEAR Burley
Official Estimate Actual
2005 105,300,000 119,519,868
2006 127,800,000 124,082,421
2007 88,400,000 86,620,382
2008 145,000,000 169,248,366
2009 194,000,000 208,301,519
2010 186,600,000 193,238,632
2011 199,800,000 208,324,837
2012 134,100,000 64,676,433
2013 138,200,000 144,709,338
72005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
Burley Estimates Versus Actuals 2005-2013
Estimate
Actual
Years
Volu
me
Kgs
82005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
All Tobacco Types Estimates versus Actual: 1995-2012
EstimateActual
Years
Volu
mes
(Kg)
9
Strength and Weakness of Current Methodology
STRENGTHS:
• The detailed TCC questionnaire covers all critical areas
• Personnel from all stakeholders in the industry have
collective responsibility
10
Strength and Weakness of methodology… continued
WEAKNESSES:• Registration system
– This is the foundation of crop production information.
– Lack of grower base intelligence linked to registration system (dual registrations/unknown number of growers)
• There is a limitation in human and other resources • Reliance on information received by growers not
quantifiable
11
Way Forward
• Information jointly collected from the field should not be
changed but published immediately
• More coordinated approach between all stakeholders
• Detailed calendar of events for planning purposes
• Grower base data be made available before the beginning of
the exercise
12
Way forward … cont
• Accuracy– Communication – Merchants and Grower Associations are
required to know and report volumes from their contracted growers
• Need for a committee established from MOA, TCC, and merchants to carry out crop intelligence
• Male sterile seed required• Seed sale volumes by ARET to be part of
assessment• Mechanism/Training to help farmers to measure
their fields –ARET?• Introduce technology?
13
Using technology
14
Satellite Imaging - Tobacco fields
15
Government Crop management ProcessRegistration - IPS
-TCC
EPA reconciles
TCC/Government reconciles
TCC advise TradeTrade
verification
Trade advises customers
Crop size announced Trade,
Associations Submit
Government/TCC
Thank you
16