2014: calgary housing market exceeded expectations · creb® 2015 calgary economic and housing...

CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update

2014: CALGARY HOUSING MARKET EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS

QUARTER 1: Average months of supply: 1.36 Quarterly price growth: 2.55%

15%

1%

SALES GROWTH NEW LISTINGS GROWTH


13% 17%

QUARTER 3: Average months of supply: 2.05 Quarterly price growth: 1.64% 6%

16%

EMPLOYMENT

NET MIGRATION

WAGE GROWTH

LENDING RATES

RENTAL MARKET

Annual 2014 Y/Y %

Sales 25,545 9.36

New Listings 36,172 13.07

Benchmark Price $451,008 9.85


3%

20%

Presenter

Presentation Notes


2014 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL PRICE GROWTH VARY BY AREA

C $498,000 4.84%

E $303,050 13.93%

SE $425,000 8.97%

S $425,000 7.19%

NE $347,000 10.16%

NW $484,900 8.24%

N $425,000 8.97%

W $552,500 5.44%

CITY OF CALGARY: Median Price $425,600

Median Price Growth 6.40%


2014 SURROUNDING AREAS

Detached Homes

City of Calgary Airdrie Cochrane Chestermere Okotoks

Benchmark Price (‘000) $508 $383 $415 $477 $439

Square Footage 1,296 1,449 1,442 1,845 1,437

Lot Size 4,866 4,665 5,759 5,592 5,037

Age of Property 16 6 8 5 6


OIL PRICES – IMPACT ON HOUSING?

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

WTI PRICE

WTI Price Crude Oil Futures High LowSource: U.S. Energy Information Administration, CME Group


2015: ECONOMIC FACTORS INFLUENCING HOUSING DEMAND

ENERGY PRICES

NET MIGRATION WAGE GROWTH

LENDING RATES

RENTAL VACANCIES

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

INVESTMENT

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

HOUSING DEMAND


DECLINE IN OIL TO IMPACT INVESTMENT SPENDING

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$Billions INVESTMENT SPENDING ALBERTA

Source: Alberta Government, adapted from Statistics Canada Cansim table 029-005,

(E)


EMPLOYMENT GROWTH FORECAST REMAINS POSITIVE

2.90% 2.75%

0.90%

1.90%

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

900,000

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CALGARY CMA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

% Change (Y/Y) Total Employment

Y/Y % Change Average Annual Employed

FORECAST

Source: Seasonally adjusted datea, Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada Forecast


CALGARY CMA MIGRATION TO SLOW

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CALGARY CMA NET MIGRATION

FORECAST

Source: Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada adjustment, Conference Board of Canada Forecast


RENTAL MARKET VACANCIES TO RISE

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CALGARY CMA RENTAL MARKET

Vacancy Rates, Row and Apartment 3 units and over - CalgaryCalgary Average Rent Apartment three units and over - two bedroom Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast

FORECAST


WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR HOUSING?

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (F)

CALGARY SALES FORECAST

sales 10 year average sales growthSource: CREB®


PRICES REMAIN STABLE DUE TO SUPPLY SITUATION

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

CALGARY BENCHMARK PRICE AND GROWTH

benchmark price growth Annual Average Price Growthbenchmark price Benchmark Price Annual Average

Source: CREB®

FORECAST


INVENTORIES STILL RELATIVELY LOW

-

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

CALGARY INVENTORY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO

inventory trend (12 M) sales to new listings ratio (12 M) Source: CREB®


-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

CALGARY CMA HOUSING STARTS

Single Family Multi Family Source: CMHC, Conference Board of Canada Forecast

FORECAST

GROWTH IN STARTS SHOULD HELP EASE SUPPLY PRESSURE


COMPETITION IN NEW HOME MARKET

17%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

CALGARY CMA UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Single Family Multi Family Source: CMHC

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Most pre-sold could cause sector risk


COMPETITION IN NEW HOME MARKET

17%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800


CALGARY CMA NEWLY COMPLETED AND UNOCCUPIED

Single Family Multi Family Source: CMHC

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Low inventories providing some cushion


-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00


CALGARY MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND PRICE CHANGES

months of supply trend (12 M) benchmark y/y price change Source: CREB®

TIGHT CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THIS CYCLE


WHAT TO LOOK FOR

2014 2015 (F)

City of Calgary Sales Growth 9.36% -4.08%

City of Calgary Price Growth 9.85% 1.58%

Key indicators to watch

• Employment • Migration • Housing Supply levels


DATA CHANGES

Detached, 59.21%

Attached, 22.06%

Apartment, 18.73%

2014 SHARE OF CALGARY RESIDENTIAL SALES SINGLE FAMILY – 67% • All properties freehold titled • Nearly 88% properties detached

APARTMENT – 18% • Condominium titled • Apartment high rise or low rise buildings

TOWNHOUSE – 15% • Condominium titled • Not apartment

Presenter

Presentation Notes


DESPITE DECLINES, LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG

Annual Sales 2014 2015 (F)

Detached 15,097 14,372

Attached 5,647 5,435

Apartment 4,801 4,695

-4.80%

-2.20%

-3.75%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2013 2014 2015 (F)

CALGARY FORECAST SALES COMPARISON

Deatched Sales Growth Apartment Sales Growth Attached Sales GrowthSource: CREB®


CONDITIONS VARY DEPENDING ON PROPERTY TYPE

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Jan.2001

Jan.2002

Jan.2003

Jan.2004

Jan.2005

Jan.2006

Jan.2007

Jan.2008

Jan.2009

Jan.2010

Jan.2011

Jan.2012

Jan.2013

Jan.2014

CALGARY MONTHS OF SUPPLY COMPARISON

Detached Apartment Attached Source: CREB®


PRICE GROWTH TO EASE

Annual Price 2014 2015 (F)

Detached $508,233 $517,382

Apartment $294,492 $297,437

Attached $348,483 $353,711

1.80%

1.00%

1.50%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2013 2014 2015 (F)

CALGARY FORECAST PRICE COMPARISON

Detached Price Growth Apartment Price Growth Attached Price Growth Source: CREB®


Ann-Marie Lurie Chief Economist Direct: 403.781.1372 Email: [email protected]

QUESTIONS? 1:00 – 2:00 INDUSTRY EXPERT PANEL PALOMINO D 2:30 – 3:30 LOOKING FORWARD WITH HOUSING STATISTICS PALOMINO D

2014: calgary housing market exceeded expectations · creb® 2015 calgary economic and housing...

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