2014 uk future energy scenarios - energy demand
DESCRIPTION
How do the 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios model future energy demand? Nigel Fox looks at projections for heating, lighting, domestic, industrial and commercial demand.TRANSCRIPT
2
Policy & Incentives major driver of changeConsumer affordability & preferences
Industry
Commercial
2042
Feel the Heat…
Nearly half the energy we use is used for heating and heat is a major component in our scenarios
Our models focus on the residential sector – residential heat is the largest component of natural gas demand
Our modelling has examined insulation, boilers, heat pumps and district heating
Non Heat 15%
Heat 44%
Trans-port 41%
Energy Use 2011Source: DECC
Residential insulation savings, much has been achieved to date
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014
20162018
20202022
20242026
20282030
20322034
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
Year
GG: Higher uptake of solid wall insulation
NP: Lower uptake of insulation generally
LCL/SP: Higher uptake of cavity and loft insulation
Significant savings already achieved primarily through government schemes
35TWh/a
12 TWH
Success of ECO and Green Deal crucial to deliver GG savings
Hea
t Sav
ing
TWh/
yr
Gas heating dominates residential sector; boiler replacement dominates heat savings
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
0
20
40
60
80
Loft insulation Cavity wall insulation Solid Wall insulation Boilers
Boiler replacement dominates heat savings in all scenarios
Savings much > than NP
Comfort factor can-not be ignored
Hea
t Sav
ing
TWh/
yr
Gone Green
Policy has been key in delivering boiler savings
New Houses – annual heat demand, with great scope for reductions in the future
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Year
GG/SP: Passivhaus standards reached by 2030
NP/LCL: Half the rate of thermal efficiencies compared to GG/SP
3.2 MWh
3.7m new houses expected by 2035
Ann
ual H
eat D
eman
d M
Wh/
yr
Building regs are key to delivering savings in new build
Heat Pump technology, do we need aParadigm shift?
7
Sales figures, stakeholder views and expected improvements in technology form the backbone of our modelling
Oil and electric systems first to be replaced, with hybrid systems towards end of period
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
GG: Highest scenario
All other scenarios
Heating systems often distressed purchases; consumers buy known technologies
Much uncertainty for this technology - some form of further intervention could see this market kick started
Millions
Widespread uptake will be dependent on RHI and consumer affordability
District Heating highlighted in Heat Strategy 2013; features in all scenarios
8
Existing schemes mainly have anchor loads
c80 schemes serving 200k residential properties
LCL sees a move into the residential sector in new housing (garden cities) rather than retrofit
GG/SP: CHP in Commercial buildings
Picture courtesy of Ceequal
Opportunity of synergy with electricity balancing through the use of interseasonal storage
Changing Rooms Lighting – moving on from Halogens
91990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Halogen
LED
CFL
Incandescent
Fluorescent
Gone Green
Mill
ion
bulb
s
Consumers love affair with Halogens knows no end…
10
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Mill
ion
bulb
s
Low Carbon Life
Incandescent
Fluorescent
Halogen
LEDCFL
Tension between consumer preferences and policy intervention unless manufacturers champion LEDs
11
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 20330
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
TWh/
yrSetting the right pathway can deliver massive savings in lighting demand
LCL
GG
NP
SP
10 TWH
GG sees policy intervention early; SP sees it later
Residential Appliances – 60% residential demand
12
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 203355
60
65
70
75
TWh/
yr
NP
SP
Largest difference driven by cold/wet appliance efficiency and adoption of electronics
Efficiency improves through technology development and the introduction of policy standards
More desktops
More stuff
Replace on fail
LCL
GG
Consumer preferences and efficiency standards drive demand for goods
132006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
100
125
150
Power200
250
300
350
400
Gas
TWh/
yr
Efficiencies balance growth
Uptake of Heat Pumps
Electrification of transport
Residential Energy – adding up the numbers
Annual Demand – I&C
14
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
GasDecrease reliance on gas over past decade
Shift away from energy intensive industries towards commercial sector
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
175
200
225
PowerHigher economic growth in GG and LCL causes the commercial gas demand and power demand to increase
TWh/yr
15
19:30:00 20:00:00 20:30:00 21:00:00 21:30:00 22:00:00 22:30:00 23:00:0029000
30000
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
Dem
and
Time
Kick off
Half Time 1800 MW
Full Time 1500MW
World Cup 2042, England v Uruguay - in a profligate world
ScoreEngland 2Uruguay 1
16
World Cup 2042 – in a Gone Green world
19:30:00 20:00:00 20:30:00 21:00:00 21:30:00 22:00:00 22:30:00 23:00:0029000
30000
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
Half Time 700MW
Full Time 700MW
Dem
and
Time
17
World Cup 2042 – in a Smart Gone Green world
19:30:00 20:00:00 20:30:00 21:00:00 21:30:00 22:00:00 22:30:00 23:00:0029000
30000
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
Dem
and
Time
18
World Cup 2042 – in a Smart Gone Green world
19:30:00 20:00:00 20:30:00 21:00:00 21:30:00 22:00:00 22:30:00 23:00:0029000
30000
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
Dem
and
Time
Commercial freezers balancing service
EVs boost charge
EVs and freezers provide demand relief
19
Key Messages
Legislative policy has delivered real savings to date
It could continue to drive change in the energy sector in the future
Consumer preferences and affordability will continue to determine the adoption of new technologies