20140119 in the shadow of malthus - grasping reality with both … · 2014-01-19 ·...
TRANSCRIPT
In the Shadow of Malthus
J. Bradford DeLong UC Berkeley
Required Readings • Rick Steckel (2008), "Biological Measures of the Standard of Living",
Journal of Economic Perspec2ves 22:1 (Winter), pp. 129-‐52 hLp://www.aeaweb.org/arPcles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.22.1.129
• Thomas Malthus (1798), An Essay on the Principle of Popula2on, Chapters 1-‐2, pp.1-‐11, Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project, 1998. hLp://www.esp.org/books/malthus/populaPon/malthus.pdf
• Gregory Clark (2007), A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World, Chapter 2, “The Logic of the Malthusian Economy,” pp. 19-‐39 and Chapter 3, “Living Standards,” pp. 40-‐70. Princeton: Princeton University Press. On reserve at Graduate Services. An earlier dra` (not preferred) is available at hLp://Pnyurl.com/dl20090112e (chapter 2) and hLp://Pnyurl.com/dl20090112j (chapter 3)
Richard H. Steckel (2008), "Biological Measures of the Standard of Living”
• When economists invesPgate long-‐term trends and socioeconomic differences in the standard of living or quality of life, they have tradiPonally focused on monetary measures such as gross domesPc product -‐-‐ which has occupied center stage for over 50 years. In recent decades, however, scholars have increasingly recognized the limitaPons of monetary measures while seeking useful alternaPves. This essay examines the unique and valuable contribuPons of four biological measures -‐-‐ life expectancy, morbidity, stature, and certain features of skeletal remains -‐-‐ to understand levels and changes in human well-‐being. People desire far more than material goods and in fact they are quite willing to trade or give up material things in return for beLer physical or psychological health. For most people, health is so important to their quality of life that it is useful to refer to the "biological standard of living." Biological measures may be especially valuable for historical studies and for other research circumstances where monetary measures are thin or lacking. A concluding secPon ruminates on the future evoluPon of biological approaches in measuring happiness.
The Coming of Agriculture
Agricultural PlantaJon Slavery
Health and Wealth
Demography Before Modern Economic Growth
What Does It Mean for a Human PopulaJon to Grow at Only 1%/GeneraJon?
• A hunter-‐gatherer populaPon? • An agricultural populaPon? • An industrial/post-‐industrial populaPon?
Nasty, BruJsh, and Short • The phrase is Thomas
Hobbes’s • Modern standard of living
is worth 10 cm. • PracPcally every non-‐
aristo skeleton from our agrarian past is really short – ExcepPons: fish eaters – ExcepPons: Souix – ExcepPons: Hunter-‐
gatherers • What does being 10 cm.
shorter do to brain development?
Demography Before and During Modern Economic Growth
Thomas Malthus (1798), An Essay on the Principle of PopulaJon
• “Let us imagine for a moment Mr. Godwin's beauPful system of equality realized in its utmost purity…” – William Godwin, Enquiry Concerning Poli2cal Jus2ce – Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas de Caritat, Marquis de Condorcet, Sketch for a Historical Picture of the Progress of the Human Mind
• Demography pins the standard of living to “subsistence” as long as technological progress is “slow”
• G.W.F. Hegel: “die Eule der Minerva beginnt erst mit der einbrechenden Dämmerung ihren Flug” – “The owl of Minerva flies only at dusk”
Gregory Clark: “The Logic of the Malthusian Economy” and “Living Standards”
• A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World, chapters 2 and 3 – “From 1340 to 1680 the populaPon of the major European countries actually fell slightly… the average number of surviving children per woman… ranged from 1.90 in the Netherlands to 1.99 in France…”
– Figure 6 live births per adult woman…
Living Standards Across Time and Space from Clark (2007)
Direct EsJmates of Long-‐Run Real Wage Trends
• We know what monks paid their construcPon workers.
• We know what bread and other staples cost.
• QuesPons about whether these workers are in any sense representaPve
A Malthusian Economy? When and Why?
• We are not terribly unhappy with our populaPon esPmates.
• We are unhappy with our esPmates of modern economic growth – But the thing itself exists – And before MEG there must have been living standard stagnaPon
• Those together imply the picture that we have.
Malthus’s Policy RecommendaJons
• All of the acPon is in Csub, therefore...
• Delaying the start of sexual acPvity humanity’s only chance: – Patriarchy – Theocracy – Monarchy
• a most disheartening reflecPon that the great obstacle in the way to any extraordinary improvement in society is of a nature that we can never hope to overcome..... Yet, discouraging as the contemplaPon of this difficulty must be to those whose exerPons are laudably directed to the improvement of the human species, it is evident that no possible good can arise from any endeavours to slur it over or keep it in the background.
• On the contrary, the most baleful mischiefs may be expected from the unmanly conduct of not daring to face truth because it is unpleasing.... [I]f we unwisely direct our efforts towards an object in which we cannot hope for success, we shall not only exhaust our strength in fruitless exerPons and remain at as great a distance as ever from the summit of our wishes, but we shall be perpetually crushed by the recoil of this rock of Sisyphus...
Malthus’s Theory
• A preLy good theory as of 1800...
• Not at all a good theory as of 1850...
• An absolutely lousy theory as of today... – Or is it?