2014.12.01 - naec-strategic foresight workshop_session 3_wim thomas
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Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
OECD December 2014
Exploring the evolutionary potential of the present using numbers supported by narrative
Complex adaptive systems Cognitive scienceEvolutionary biologyAnthropologyDistributed ethnography
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
Setting the context
Beyond big data?The internet of things and the quantified self take us beyond the conventional limitations of text base analysis but ...One algorithm to rule them all and in the darkness bid themNeed to remember that we need proper sampling and also advocacy through traceability; no black boxesReal time feedback and to shift from linear to non-linear views of policy and actionForesight needs to focus as much on sidecasting as forecasting or backcasting Shift from a narrative to patterns of micro-narratives perceived as a manageable flow over time
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
Perspective through self-signified micro-narratives
Landscape containing over 40k self-signified micro-narratives
Hollows are stable patterns, the peaks unstable domains
Yellow dots are outliers
We need to understand the energy needs of a new sustainable narratives
Monitoring as evaluation & who owns the power of
interpretation?
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
Clusters in the tail …Pr
obab
ility
of o
utco
me
Range of possible outcomes
Gaussian
Low Probability High impact events
Derived from material created by Max BoisotAcademy of Management Montreal 2010
10-²
10-¹10⁰10¹10²10³
10⁴
10⁵
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Magnitude m=log₁₀(S)
N(M
=m(e
arth
quak
es/y
ear)
Pareto
✘
early detection fast recovery speedy exploitation
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
Monitoring as evaluationLo
g of
eve
nt fr
eque
ncy
Log of event size
Pareto world
Gaussian world
From anticipation ...
... to triggering anticipatory awareness
PossiblePlausible
Probable
Hypothesis/inductive Non-hypothesis/
abductive
Derived from material created by Max BoisotAcademy of Management Montreal 2010
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
“The invisible gorilla strikes again” Drew, Vo & Wolfe
Psychol Sci. Sep 2013; 24(9): 1848–1853
“What about expert searchers who have spent years honing their ability
to detect small abnormalities in specific types of image? We asked 24
radiologists to perform a familiar lung nodule detection task. A gorilla,
48 times larger than the average nodule, was inserted in the last case. 83% of radiologists did not see the
gorilla. Eye-tracking revealed that the majority of the those who missed the gorilla looked directly at the location of the gorilla. Even expert searchers,
operating in their domain of expertise, are vulnerable to
inattentional blindness.”
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.
Understanding decision makingThe most important thing in this example was
Acting intuitively, instantly
The situation was analysed
logically
People thought deeply and made decisions based on principles
Colour coding by demographicsEach dot represents a story or picture
that can be interrogated to explain the numbers
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
monitoring community impact
The patterning of indexing should reflect a rightward shift, especially in Teachermante,
with WHG’s entry into the market
It would indicate both that their education programs are gaining success, and that the villagers in Teachermante are moving toward purchase of treated water thereby increasing
its marketshare
Community B
29%6%3%
100% responded
2%
22%
Community A
12%
26%
11%8%12%
96% responded
8%
9©2014 Cognitive Edge. All rights reserved. Strictly confidential.
0 20 40 60 80 100
020
4060
80
Completing on time
Dee
ply
held
val
ues
and
prin
cipl
es
T3 Key behaviours in the story are motivated by:
T8 A
ctio
ns in
this
situ
atio
n ar
e sh
aped
by:
Landscape of Completing on time v Actions shaped by Deeply held values and principles
Completing on time
Deep
ly he
ld v
alue
s an
d pr
incip
lesD
ensity
Observations:
Actions shaped by Deeply held values and principles are not coincident with motivations for Completing on time. This is evident with the very low probability of stories being signified in the area marked at A’ on the landscape. Situations do not co-occur in the areas marked by the pink highlights below (A’ area on the landscape).
A’
10©2014 Cognitive Edge. All rights reserved. Strictly confidential.
Doing it right v An intense drive to achieve: contrast from Neg & Strongly Neg (left) and Pos & Strongly Pos (right)
20 40 60 80 100
020
4060
80
Doing it Right
An
inte
nse
driv
e to
ach
ieve
0 20 40 60 80
020
4060
80100
Doing it Right
An
inte
nse
driv
e to
ach
ieve
Negative and Strongly Negative only Positive and Strongly Positive only
Observation: With the Negative landscape (on left), we see an elongated pattern at area A where NOT Doing it Right runs the gambit of An intense drive to achieve. We also see a shift in area B with Doing it right moving more toward An intense drive to achieve.
With the Positive landscape (on right) in area C, Doing it right and NOT An intense drive to a achieve is the same pattern we found on page 94 with all stories present. In general, this landscape is very similar to the overall landscape on page 94.
Doing it Right
An in
tens
e dr
ive to
ach
ieve
Density
Doing it Right
An in
tens
e dr
ive to
ach
ieve
Density
AB
C
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.
Managing for serendipity
1
23
4
Question capabilty
Question understanding
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
Current explorations in practice ❖ Changing the narratives of the past to
enable a new narratives of the future.❖ Real time decision support in conditions
of uncertainty using extended human sensor networks. Creating networks for ordinary need that can be activated for extraordinary purpose
❖ From anticipation to triggering anticipatory awareness
❖ Measuring wellness as dispositions ❖ Engagement as advocacy: What we do to
create more stories like these, fewer like those
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
“The facts are absolutely clear. There is no question that in virtually all circumstances in which people are doing things in order to get rewards, extrinsic tangible rewards undermine intrinsic motivation”
New Scientist 9th April 2011 pp 40-43
Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes
Goodhart’s Law
When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure
Strathern variation
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
The nature of complexity❖ Networks for ordinary purpose activated for
extraordinary need using polymorphic signifier sets❖ Oral history in schools❖ Field staff notebooks❖ The Patient Journey❖ Public transport❖ Shadowing experience❖ Church & cultural groups
❖ Enables imperfect and partial copying❖ Attitudinal measures as lead indicators❖ Anticipatory audit & awareness❖ Changing habits by multiple small reinforcement
including the use of exaptation❖ Testing & modifying cultural affinity & empathy
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
Nine factors in scaling❖ Boundaries❖ Constraints❖ Granularity❖ Gradient❖ Catalysts❖ Micro-diversity❖ Parable form narratives❖ Cycle-time stability❖ Measureable coherence