2014cmes guide and program 0621a -...

2014 China Meeting of Econometric Society

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Program Overview

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

08:00-08:30 Opening Ceremony

08:30-09:30 Keynote I

09:30-10:15 Keynote II

10:15-10:45 Coffee Break

10:45-12:15 Parallel Sessions IP01-IP04 CP01-CP07 MW01

12:15-14:00 Lunch

14:00-14:45 Keynote III

14:45-15:30 Keynote IV

15:30-16:45 Coffee Break & Poster Session I

16:00-16:45 Poster Session I


18:30-20:30 Dinner

Thursday, June 26, 2014

08:30-09:15 Keynote V

09:15-10:00 Keynote VI



12:00-14:00 Lunch

14:00-14:45 Keynote VII

14:45-15:30 Keynote VIII

15:30-16:45 Coffee Break & Poster Session II

16:00-16:45 Poster Session II


18:30-20:30 Dinner

Friday, June 27, 2014




12:00-14:00 Lunch

14:00-14:45 Keynote IX


15:15-16:45 Parallel Sessions IP25-IP27 CP43-CP51

18:00-20:00 Dinner

IP: Invited Sessions

CP: Contributed Sessions

MW: Monash-WISE workshop Sessions

1. All sessions are at either Section N or Section D, Economic Building;

2. Opening Ceremony and all Keynote Sessions are in Room N402;

3. All MW Sessions are in Room N118;

4. Poster Sessions are at the Hallway of the 4th floor at Section N;

5. For the venue of Parallel Sessions, please see the parallel sessions overview or detailed program;

6. All Coffee Breaks are at Section N (the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th floor ), the yard of Section D (or the Hallway of the 2nd floor between Section C and Section D).

7. The book exhibition is at the lobby of Section N.

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Parallel Sessions Overview

Venue RoomN203 RoomN303 RoomN302 RoomN301 RoomN118 RoomN401 RoomN406 RoomN501 RoomD209 RoomD210 RoomD309 RoomD310

June 25 IP01 IP02 IP03 IP04 MW01 CP01 CP02 CP03 CP04 CP05 CP06 CP07

10:45-12:15

Nonparametric

Estimation and Testing

Microeconomics I

Chinese Economy I

Modelling Financial

Distress and Credit Risk

Test & Identificatio

n

Nonlinear and

Nonparametric Models

Panel Data Models I

Auctions and Contests

Macroeconomics I

Insurance and Cash Flow Sensitivity

Decision regarding

High Education

Corruption: Theory and Empirics

IP05 IP06 IP07 IP08 MW02 CP08 CP09 CP10 CP11 CP12 CP13 CP14

16:45-18:15

Time Series and

Financial Econometri

cs

Treatment Effects

Exchange Rate Dynamics and International

Trade in Chinese Economy

Financial Econometri

cs I

Copula & Finance

Asymptotic Theory

Hypothesis Testing

Mechanism Design & Markets

Monetary Economics

Credit Risk Microeconomi

cs II

Economic Studies of

Long-Term Impact


10:30-12:00 Panel Data Models II

Microeconomics III

Chinese Economy II

The Financial

Market and Macro

Finance

Time Series &

ForecastingWeak IV

Econometric Modelling

Contracting and

Mechanism

Growth, Fiscal Policy

and Miscellaneous

Financial Econometrics

II

Migration and Aging

Comparing Policy Effects

across Chinese Regions


16:45-18:15 Labor

EconomicsMicroeconomics IV

Chinese Economy in

Globalization Era: Trade and

FDI

Semiparametric Panel

Data Models

Experimental

Econometrics & Game

Theory

Time Series I

Topics in Economics

Asymmetric Information

Macroeconomics II


III

Regional Heterogeneity and Economic Consequences

Panel Data Models III


8:30-10:00 Time Series

II Microeconomics V

Trade and China

Health Economics I

Nonparametric

Econometrics I

Applied Econometri

cs I

Matching and Assignments

Market Design

Financial Friction and

Macroeconomics

Macro Finance I

Optimal Contract

Labor Force Participation


10:30-12:00

Panel Data Econometri

cs with Cross-Secti

onal Dependence

Nonstandard

Inference

Topics in Econometrics

Mathematical

Economics

Econometrics in Macro

& Micro

Time Series III

Microeconomics VI

Trust and Reciprocity

Housing Economics

Macro Finance II

Public Economics

Optimal Pricing

IP25 IP26 IP27 CP51 CP50 CP43 CP44 CP45 CP46 CP47 CP48 CP49

15:15-16:45

Inference for Panel

and Spatial-temporal Data

Nonparametric

Econometrics II

Non- and Semi-Parametric Inference

Health Economics

II

Industrial Organizatio

n

Applied Econometri

cs II

Microeconomics VII

Political Economics

and Institutions

Political Economy


IV

Topics in Economics (in Chinese 中文

场)

Social Interaction

and Coordination

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Detailed Program

2014 China Meeting of Econometric Society June 25-27, 2014

Xiamen University, China

The name of the presenter is in bold letters, and only the affiliation of the presenter is indicated.

Wednesday, June 25

Opening Ceremony: 08:00-8:30, Room N402 Session Chair: Zongwu Cai ([email protected]), University of Kansas

Keynote Session I: 08:30-09:30, Room N402 Session Chair: Lung-Fei Lee ([email protected]), Ohio State University

“The Market and Nonmarket Effects of Schooling” James J. Heckman ([email protected]), University of Chicago

Keynote Session II: 09:30-10:15, Room N402 Session Chair: Zongwu Cai ([email protected]), University of Kansas

“Using Panel Data to Disentangle Multiple Treatment Effects” Cheng Hsiao ([email protected]), University of Southern California


Section N (the 2nd, 3rd and 5th floor), yard of Section D (or the Hallway of the 2nd floor between Section C and Section D)

Parallel Sessions (10:45-12:15) 10:45-12:15 Invited Sessions IP01-IP04 10:45-12:15 Contributed Sessions CP01-CP07 10:45-12:15 Monash-WISE Workshop Session MW01

Session IP01: Nonparametric Estimation and Testing, 10:45-12:15, Room N203 Session Chair: Bin Chen ([email protected]), University of Rochester

[1] “Estimating Smooth Structural Change in Cointegration Models” Peter C. B. Phillips, Degui Li ([email protected]), and Jiti Gao, University of York

[2] “A Note on Overidentification Test” Xuexin Wang ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[3] “An Improved Transfer-Based Kernel Estimator of Copula Densities” Kuangyu Wen and Ximing Wu ([email protected]), Texas A&M University and Xiamen University


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Session IP02: Microeconomics I, 10:45-12:15, Room N303 Session Chair: Rongzhu Ke ([email protected]), The Chinese University of Hong Kong

[1] “Are Migrant Students Discriminated in Public Schools? Evidence from Shanghai” Yuanyuan Chen ([email protected]) and Shuaizhang Feng, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Vehicle Quota System and Its Impact on The Chinese Auto Markets : A Tale of Two Cities” Junji Xiao, Xiaolan Zhou ([email protected]), and Wei-Min Hu, Shanghai University of Economics and Finance

[3] “Nonparametric Identification of Moral Hazard Problem: First Order Approach and Statistical Inference” Rongzhu Ke ([email protected]), The Chinese University of Hong Kong

Session IP03: Chinese Economy I, 10:45-12:15, Room N302 Session Chair: Qing Liu ([email protected]), Tsinghua University

[1] “Identifying Monetary Policy Behavior in China: A Bayesian DSGE Approach” Bing Li ([email protected]) and Qing Liu, Tsinghua University

[2] “Understanding Chinese Business Cycles” Cheng Ding and Lin Zhang ([email protected]), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Investing Like China” Chong-En Bai, Qing Liu ([email protected]), and Wen Yao, Tsinghua University

Session IP04: Modelling Financial Distress and Credit Risk, 10:45-12:15, Room N301 Session Chair: Juan Yao ([email protected]), University of Sydney

[1] “The Mechanics of Ex Ante Bankruptcy Cost, Corporate Capital Structure, and Debt Maturity” Yong Kil Ahn ([email protected]), Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[2] “The Dynamic Prediction of Company Failure: The Influence of Time, The Economy and Non-Linearity” Graham Partington ([email protected]) and Maria Kim, University of Sydney

[3] “Hedge Fund Lifetime, Survival Probability and Economic Condition” Juan Yao ([email protected]) and Hee Soo Lee, University of Sydney

Session CP01: Nonlinear and Nonparametric Models, 10:45-12:15, Room N401 Session Chair: Arthur Lewbel ([email protected]), Boston College

[1] “Identifying The Effect of Changing The Policy Threshold in Regression Discontinuity Models” Yingying Dong ([email protected]) and Arthur Lewbel, University of California, Irvine

[2] “Identification and QML Estimation of Multivariate and Simultaneous Spatial


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Autoregression Models” Kai Yang ([email protected]) and Lung-Fei Lee, The Ohio State University

[3] “Identifying The Average Treatment Effect in A Two Threshold Model” Arthur Lewbel ([email protected]) and Thomas Tao Yang, Boston College

Session CP02: Panel Data Models I, 10:45-12:15, Room N406 Session Chair: Ji-Liang Shiu ([email protected]), Renmin University of China

[1] “Testing for Cross-Sectional Dependence in A Panel Data Model with Time Series Autocorrelation” Chihwa Kao and Long Liu ([email protected]), University of Texas at San Antonio

[2] “Logit Model Bayesian Inference Using Informative and Noninformative Priors” Tahir Abbas Malik and Zhengming Qian ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[3] “Statistical Inference for Panel Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Models” Cheng Hsiao and Qiankun Zhou ([email protected]), University of Southern California

[4] “Identification and Estimation of Nonseparable Regression Functions in Dynamic Panel Data Models” Ji-Liang Shiu ([email protected]), Renmin University of China

Session CP03: Auctions and Contests, 10:45-12:15, Room N501 Session Chair: Zhewei Wang ([email protected]), Shandong University

[1] “How Risk Sharing May Enhance Efficiency in English Auctions” Audrey Hu ([email protected]), Theo Offerman, and Liang Zou, University of Amsterdam

[2] “Autocontour-Testing in Unstable Environments” Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera and Yingying Sun ([email protected]), Huazhong University of Science and Technology

[3] “Multi-Prize Contests: An Axiomatization Perspective” Jingfeng Lu and Zhewei Wang ([email protected]), Shandong University

Session CP04: Macroeconomics I, 10:45-12:15, Room D209 Session Chair: Min Zhang ([email protected]), Shanghai University of Finance and

Economics

[1] “Tax Evasion Through Trade Intermediation: Evidence from Chinese Exporters” Xupeng Liu, Huimin Shi ([email protected]), and Michael Ferrantino, Renmin University of China

[2] “Are Credit Default Swaps Redundant?” Xu Hu ([email protected]), Fudan University

[3] “UI Eligibility Rule, Moral Hazard, and Optimal Unemployment Transfer Scheme” Min Zhang ([email protected]) and Jia Pan, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Session CP05: Insurance and Cash Flow Sensitivity, 10:45-12:15, Room D210 Session Chair: Jing Cai ([email protected]), University of Michigan


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[1] “Cash Flow Sensitivities and the Allocation of Internal Cash Flow” Xin Chang, Sudipto Dasgupta, George Wong, and Jiaquan Yao ([email protected]), Nanyang Technological University

[2] “The Role of Insurance in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from Mortgage Market” Sumit Agarwal and Yunqi Zhang ([email protected]), National University of Singapore

[3] “Subsidy Policies and Insurance Demand” Jing Cai ([email protected]), Alain De Janvry, and Elisabeth Sadoulet, University of Michigan

Session CP06: Decision regarding High Education, 10:45-12:15, Room D309 Session Chair: Weina Zhou ([email protected]), Dalhousie University

[1] “Cost and Risk Sharing in Higher Education” Yi Li ([email protected]), University of Wisconsin-Madison

[2] “College Enrollment, State Reform, and Human Capital: Evidence from China” Yao Yao ([email protected]), Washington University in St. Louis

[3] “How Does A Hard Manual Labour Experience during Youth Affect Life Later? The Long-term Impact of the Send-down Program during the Chinese Cultural Revolution” Weina Zhou ([email protected]), Dalhousie University

Session CP07: Corruption: Theory and Empirics, 10:45-12:15, Room D310 Session Chair: Xiaohuan Lan ([email protected]), Cheung Kong Graduate School of

Business

[1] “Procurement Design with Corruption” Roberto Burguet ([email protected]), Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC) and Barcelona GSE

[2] “The Political Economy Determinants of The Firm Size Distribution: Evidence from China” Yu Liu ([email protected]), Yale University

[3] “Swiss Watch Cycles: Evidence of Corruption during Leadership Transition in China” Xiaohuan Lan ([email protected]) and Wei Li, Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business

Session MW01: Test & Identification, 10:45-12:15, Room N118 Session Chair: Mervyn Silvapulle ([email protected]), Monash University

[1] “Identifying Structural Breaks in Stochastic Mortality Models” Colin O’Hare ([email protected]) and Youwei Li, Monash University

[2] “Issues of Mis-specification in Fractionally Integrated Models” K. Nadarajah, Gael M. Martin and Donald Poskitt ([email protected]), Monash University

[3] “Bootstrap Specification Tests for The Error Distribution in Multiplicative Error Models” Indeewara Perera and Mervyn Silvapulle ([email protected]), Monash University


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12:15-14:00 Lunch

Keynote Session III: 14:00-14:45, Room N402 Session Chair: Jiti Gao ([email protected]), Monash University

“Wald-Type Tests When Rank Conditions Fail: Problems, Solutions, and Econometric Applications” Jean-Marie Dufour ([email protected]), MaGill University

Keynote Session IV: 14:45-15:30, Room N402 Session Chair: Chunrong Ai ([email protected]), University of Florida

“Econometric Issues Arising in Banking” Nicholas Kiefer ([email protected]), Cornell University

15:30-16:45 Coffee Break & Poster Session I

Coffee Break: Section N (the 2nd, 3rd and 5th floor), yard of Section D (or the Hallway of the 2nd floor between Section C and Section D)

Poster Session I: 16:00-16:45, Hallway of the 4th floor at Section N

[1] “Limitations of The Approximation Capabilities of The Translog Model: Implications for Energy Demand and Technical Change Analysis”

Sourour Baccar ([email protected]), University of Sfax

[2] “On The Distributional Effect of Japan's Equal Employment Opportunity Law on the Gender Wage Gap”

Juan Nelson Martinez Dahbura ([email protected]), Keio University

[3] “Business Time Sampling Scheme and Its Application”

Yingjie Dong ([email protected]), Singapore Management University

[4] “National Regional Development Strategy, Market Segmentation and Economic Growth”

Xin Fan ([email protected]), Jilin university

[5] “The Role of Interpersonal Comparisons in A Real Effort Competition”

Lingbo Huang ([email protected]), University of Nottingham

[6] “Whither China? Reform and Economic Integration among Chinese Regions”

Shuo Huang ([email protected]), Southwest University of Finance and Economics

[7] “Rank Order Tournament of Multiple Venders in The Presence of Hold-Up”

Takuya Nakaizumi ([email protected]), Kanto Gakuin University

[8] “Bargaining with Split-The-Difference Arbitration”

Kang Rong ([email protected]), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics


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[9] “Estimation of INAR Model with Katz Family Arrivals”

Jiajing Sun ([email protected]), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

[10] “Central Bank Preference and Time Series Property of Inflation. Evidence from Asia”

Bin Tan ([email protected]), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

[11] “Decentralized Labor Markets, Credit within the Firm and Macroeconomic Implications”

Yicheng Wang ([email protected]), University of Rochester

[12] “How Large Are The Effects of Simultaneity on Testing Granger-Causality? ”

Joachim Wilde ([email protected]), University Osnabrueck

[13] “Real Economy Influenced by Commercial Banks: Analysis of The Internal and External Factor”

Tong Yu ([email protected]), Wuhan University


Session IP05: Time Series and Financial Econometrics, 16:45-18:15, Room N203 Session Chair: John Chao ([email protected]), University of Maryland

[1] “Shrinkage Estimation of Regression Models with Multiple Structural Change” Junhui Qian ([email protected]) and Liangjun Su, Shanghai Jiao Tong University

[2] “Volatility and Quantile Forecasts by Realized Stochastic Volatility Models with Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution” Makoto Takahashi, Toshiaki Watanabe ([email protected]), and Yasuhio Omori, Hitotsubashi University

[3] “Copula Models with Filtered Nonstationarity” Zhijie Xiao ([email protected]), Boston College

Session IP06: Treatment Effects, 16:45-18:15, Room N303 Session Chair: Yu-Chin Hsu ([email protected]), Institute of Economics, Academia

Sinica

[1] “A Covariate Selection Criterion for Estimation of Treatment Effects” Xun Lu ([email protected]), Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[2] “Marginal Quantile Treatment Effect” Ping Yu ([email protected]), University of Auckland

[3] “Consistent Tests for Conditional Treatment Effects” Yu-Chin Hsu ([email protected]), Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica

Session IP07: Exchange Rate Dynamics and International Trade in Chinese Economy, 16:45-18:15, Room N302


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Session Chair: Jenny Xu ([email protected]), Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[1] “Forward Expectation of Exchange Rate and Chinese Importers” David Cook, Yao Amber Li ([email protected]), and Chen Zhao, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[2] “A Model of Chinese Real Exhange Rate” Jiandong Ju, Yifu Lin, Qing Liu, and Kang Shi ([email protected]), Chinese University of Hong Kong

[3] “Structural Change and The Dynamics of Real Exchange Rate” Yong Wang, Jenny Xu ([email protected]), and Xiaodong Zhu, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Session IP08: Financial Econometrics I, 16:45-18:15, Room N301 Session Chair: Heather Anderson ([email protected]), Monash University

[1] “Quantifying Informational Linkages in A Global Model of Currency Spot Markets” Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo ([email protected]), Viet Nguyen, and Yongcheol Shin, University of Melbourne

[2] “Financial Bubble Implosion” Peter C. B. Phillips and Shuping Shi ([email protected]), Macquarie University

[3] “Continuous and Jump Betas: Applications for Portfolio Management” Vitali Alexeev, Mardi Dungey, and Wenying Yao ([email protected]), University of Tasmania

Session CP08: Asymptotic Theory, 16:45-18:15, Room N401 Session Chair: Jamie Alcock ([email protected]), The University of Sydney

[1] “On The Bootstrap for Moran's I Test for Spatial Dependence” Fei Jin ([email protected]) and Lung-Fei Lee, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Fixed-B Inference for Difference-In-Differences Estimation” Yu Sun ([email protected]), Capital University of Economics and Business

[3] “Non-Parametric American Option Pricing Using Cressie-Read Divergences” Jamie Alcock ([email protected]) and Godfrey Smith, The University of Sydney

Session CP09: Hypothesis Testing, 16:45-18:15, Room N406 Session Chair: Sainan Jin ([email protected]), Singapore Management University

[1] “Testing Constancy of Conditional Joint Dependence” Zhonghao Fu ([email protected]), Cornell University

[2] “Nonparametric Tests of Conditional Symmetry in Nonparametric Models” Xiaojun Song ([email protected]), Universidad Carlos III De Madrid

[3] “Testing The Martingale Hypothesis” Peter Phillips and Sainan Jin ([email protected]), Singapore Management University


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Session CP10: Mechanism Design & Markets, 16:45-18:15, Room N501 Session Chair: Jinpeng Ma ([email protected]), Rutgers University

[1] “Contests with Endogenous Entry” Qiang Fu, Qian Jiao ([email protected]), and Jingfeng Lu, Sun Yat-Sen University

[2] “Implementation of The Maximum Sustainable Yield under An Age-Structured Model” Zafer Kanik and Serkan Kucuksenel ([email protected]), Middle East Technical University

[3] “Double Auction Mechanisms on Markovian Networks” Jinpeng Ma ([email protected]), Xiaojing Xu, and Xiaoping Xie, Rutgers University

Session CP11: Monetary Economics, 16:45-18:15, Room D209 Session Chair: Chi-Young Choi ([email protected]), University of Texas at Arlington

[1] “Sticky Prices and Costly Credit” Liang Wang ([email protected]), Lucy Qian Liu, and Randall Wright, University of Hawaii Manoa

[2] “Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets” Eswar Prasad and Boyang Zhang ([email protected]), Cornell University

[3] “Impact of Monetary Policy Regime Change on Regional Inflation Dynamics: A Sectoral Analysis” Chi-Young Choi ([email protected]), University of Texas at Arlington

Session CP12: Credit Risk, 16:45-18:15, Room D210 Session Chair: Hongbiao Zhao ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[1] “The Home Bias in Sovereign Ratings” Andreas Fuchs ([email protected]) and Kai Gehring, Heidelberg University

[2] “Credit Risk in A Large Banking System: Econometric Modeling and Empirics” Andre Lucas, Bernd Schwaab, and Xin Zhang ([email protected]), Central Bank of Sweden

[3] “A Generalized Stochastic Contagion Model for Credit Risk” Angelos Dassios and Hongbiao Zhao ([email protected]), Xiamen University

Session CP13: Microeconomics II, 16:45-18:15, Room D309 Session Chair: Luhang Wang ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[1] “Decentralizability of Multi-Agency Contracting with Bayesian Implementation” Yu Chen ([email protected]), Nanjing University

[2] “Loyalty and Durability: Evidence from The Opening of The Toothpaste Tubes” Lemin Wu and Yuheng Zhao ([email protected]), Peking University

[3] “Quality, Input Choices and the Impact of VAT Rebate: Evidence from Chinese Exporters” Luhang Wang ([email protected]), Xiamen University


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Session CP14: Economic Studies of Long-Term Impact, 16:45-18:15, Room D310 Session Chair: He Yang ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[1] “Shadow of The Past: The Impact of China’s Great Famine on Economic Behaviors” Miao Liu ([email protected]) and Mengshan Xu, Columbia University

[2] “Creative Industry and Transformation of Economic Structure” Na Zhao ([email protected]), Nankai University

[3] “Dual Landownership as Tax Shelter: An Economic Analysis of Perpetual Lease” He Yang ([email protected]), Xiamen University

Session MW02: Copula & Finance, 16:45-18:15, Room N118 Session Chair: Param Silvapulle ([email protected]), Monash University

[1] “Non-systematic Jump and Volatility Spread in the Option Market” PeiLin Hsieh ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[2] “Evaluating Density Forecasts via the Copula Approach” Juan Lin ([email protected]) and Ximing Wu, National University of Singapore

[3] “Estimation of Non-parametric Copula and Forecasting of Conditional Value at Risk” Song Li, Jiti Gao, and Param Silvapulle ([email protected]), Monash University

18:30-20:30 Dinner

Thursday, June 26

Keynote Session V: 08:30-09:15, Room N402 Session Chair: Farshid Vahid ([email protected]), Monash University

“Individual Heterogeneity, Nonlinear Budget Sets, and Taxable Income” Whitney Newey ([email protected]), Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Keynote Session VI: 09:15-10:00, Room N402 Session Chair: Soohong Chew ([email protected]), National University of Singapore

“Epistemic Game Theory” Adam Brandenburger ([email protected]), New York University



Parallel Sessions (10:30-12:00) 10:30-12:00 Invited Sessions IP09-IP12 10:30-12:00 Contributed Sessions CP15-CP21


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10:30-12:00 Monash-WISE Workshop Session MW03

Session IP09: Panel Data Models II, 10:30-12:00, Room N203 Session Chair: Haiqiang Chen ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[1] “Set Identification of The Censored Quantile Regression Model for Short Panels with Fixed Effects” Tong Li and Tatsushi Oka ([email protected]), National University of Singapore

[2] “The Cause of China’s Great Leap Famine Revisited: Using Panel Data Approach for Program Evaluation” Ying Fang, James Kung, and Yang Yang ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[3] “Statistical Inference for Single Index Panel Data Models” Liping Zhu ([email protected]), Jinhong You, and Qunfang Xu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Session IP10: Microeconomics III, 10:30-12:00, Room N303 Session Chair: Zeng-Hua Lu ([email protected]), University of South Australia

[1] “Investment Cash Flow Sensitivity and Effect of Managers’ Ownership - Panel Data Evidence from Listed Companies of China” Yuanyao Ding ([email protected]) and Xu Qian, Ningbo University

[2] “Information Transmission between U.S. and China Index Futures Markets: An A-DCC GARCH Approach” Yang Hou ([email protected]) and Steven Li, University of South Australia

[3] “Child Disability, Welfare Payments, Marital Status and Mothers' Labor Supply” Zeng-Hua Lu ([email protected]) and Alec Zuo, University of South Australia

Session IP11: Chinese Economy II, 10:30-12:00, Room N302 Session Chair: Guiying Laura Wu ([email protected]), Nanyang Technological

University

[1] “Rusticated Youth: Tough Early Adulthood and Health” Yi Lu ([email protected]), National University of Singapore

[2] “Understanding Firms in Transition Economies: China and Central-Eastern Europe Compared” Byung-Yeon Kim, Jin Wang ([email protected]), and Cheng-Gang Xu, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[3] “Capital Misallocation in Chinese Manufacturing: Financial Frictions or Policy Distortions?” Guiying Laura Wu ([email protected]) and Chanbora Ek, Nanyang Technological University

Session IP12: The Financial Market and Macro Finance, 10:30-12:00, Room N301 Session Chair: Zhaoyong Zhang ([email protected]), Edith Cowan University


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[1] “Dynamic Correlations of The Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong Stock Markets: Evidence from Regime Switching DCC-GARCH Models” Yanlin Shi ([email protected]) and Kin-Yip Ho, The Australian National University

[2] “Limit Theory for Multivariate Linear Diffusion Estimation” Xiaohu Wang ([email protected]), Chinese University of Hong Kong

[3] “The Exchange Value of RMB and China’s Trade Balance” Zhaoyong Zhang ([email protected]) and Kiyotaka Sato, Edith Cowan University

Session CP15: Weak IV, 10:30-12:00, Room N401 Session Chair: Shu Shen ([email protected]), University of California, Davis

[1] “Adaptive Elastic Net GMM Estimator with Many Invalid Moment Conditions: A Simultaneous Model and Moment Selection” Mehmet Caner, Xu Han ([email protected]), and Yoonserok Lee, City University of Hong Kong

[2] “Weak Inference for Unstable Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models” Naijing Huang ([email protected]), Boston College

[3] “Multiple Testing and Breaking The Weak Instrument Curse with Big Data” Shu Shen ([email protected]) and Jiaying Gu, University of California, Davis

Session CP16: Econometric Modelling, 10:30-12:00, Room N406 Session Chair: Yoshitsugu Kitazawa ([email protected]), Kyushu Sangyo

University

[1] “Estimation of Threshold Autoregressive Conditional Interval Models” Yuying Sun ([email protected]), Ai Han, Wei Yang, Yongmiao Hong, and Shouyang Wang, Chinese Academy of Sciences

[2] “Maximum Likelihood Estimation of A Spatial Autoregressive Tobit Model” Xingbai Xu ([email protected]) and Lung-Fei Lee, The Ohio State University

[3] “Consistent Estimation for The Full-Fledged Fixed Effects Zero-Inflated Poisson Model” Yoshitsugu Kitazawa ([email protected]), Kyushu Sangyo University

Session CP17: Contracting and Mechanism, 10:30-12:00, Room N501 Session Chair: Haibo Xu ([email protected]), Fudan University

[1] “Optimal Suspension in a Model of Dynamic Lending with Private Information” Jie Luo ([email protected]) and Cheng Wang, Fudan University

[2] “Optimal Dynamic Contracting with Moral Hazard and outside Opportunities” Cheng Wang and Youzhi Yang ([email protected]), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Learning, Belief Manipulation and Optimal Relationship Termination” Haibo Xu ([email protected]), Fudan University


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Session CP18: Growth, Fiscal Policy and Miscellaneous, 10:30-12:00, Room D209 Session Chair: Tsuyoshi Shinozaki ([email protected]), Tohoku-Gakuin

Univrsity

[1] “Fiscal Spillovers in The Euro Area” Fabio Canova, Matteo Ciccarelli, and Pietro Dallari ([email protected]), Universitat Pompeu Fabra

[2] “Heavy Industry Priority and the Endogenous Formation of Centrally Planned Economic System” Mouhua Liao ([email protected]) and Justin Yifu Lin, Xiamen University

[3] “Population Growth and The Transfer Paradox in An Overlapping Generations Model” Kojun Hamada, Tsuyoshi Shinozaki ([email protected]), and Mitsuyoshi Yanagihara, Tohoku-Gakuin Univrsity

Session CP19: Financial Econometrics II, 10:30-12:00, Room D210 Session Chair: Feng Yao ([email protected]), West Virginia University

[1] “On The Measurement of Economic Tail Risk” Steven Kou and Xianhua Peng ([email protected]), Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[2] “A GARCH-HAR Model with Realized Volatility” Zhixiang Xu and Hua Zhao ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[3] “Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Value-At-Risk and Expected Shortfall Based on Extreme Value Theory” C. Martins-Filho, Feng Yao ([email protected]), and M. Torero, West Virginia University

Session CP20: Migration and Aging, 10:30-12:00, Room D309 Session Chair: Jongsay Yong ([email protected]), University of Melbourne

[1] “How Those Women Are Left Behind? Collective Labor Supply of Migrant Households in China” Xuechao Qian ([email protected]), The University of Hong Kong

[2] “Rapid Aging and Pension Reform: The Case of China” Hui He ([email protected]), Lei Ning, and Dongming Zhu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] Cream Skimming and Hospital Transfers in A Mixed Public-Private System Terence C. Cheng, John Haisken-Denew, and Jongsay Yong ([email protected]), University of Melbourne

Session CP21: Comparing Policy Effects across Chinese Regions, 10:30-12:00, Room D310 Session Chair: Junfu Zhang ([email protected]), Clark University

[1] “The Impact of Market Access on Income and Inequality in Rural China: An IV-Quantile Analysis” Zhaoyang Hou ([email protected]) and Daniel Westbrook, Georgetown University


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[2] “Who Pays Gasoline Tax in China? Based on A Panel Data Approach for Program Evaluation” Bo Zhou ([email protected]), University of International Business and Economics

[3] “Understanding Floor-Area-Ratio Restrictions on Urban Land Development in China” Shihe Fu, Yizhen Gu, and Junfu Zhang ([email protected]), Clark University

Session MW03: Time Series & Forecasting, 10:30-12:00, Room N118 Session Chair: Michael Fan ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[1] “Specification Testing in Structural Nonparametric Cointegration” Chaohua Dong and Jiti Gao ([email protected]), Monash University

[2] “Forecasting with EC-VARMA Models” Geroge Athanasopoulos, Don Poskitt, Farshid Vahid ([email protected]) and Wenying Yao, Monash University

[3] “Estimating a Large System of Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Using Penalized Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Applications on Asset Returns” Michael Fan ([email protected]) and Bibo Jiang, Xiamen University

12:00-14:00 Lunch

Keynote Session VII: 14:00-14:45, Room N402 Session Chair: Cheng Wang ([email protected]), Fudan University

“Matching Models and Data: Recent Progress” Salanie Bernard ([email protected]), Columbia University

Keynote Session VIII: 14:45-15:30, Room N402 Session Chair: Arthur Lewbel ([email protected]), Boston College

“Instrumental Variables Methods for Discrete Data” Andrew Chesher ([email protected]), University College London

15:30-16:45 Coffee Break & Poster Session II

Coffee Break: Section N (the 2nd, 3rd and 5th floor), yard of Section D (or the Hallway of the 2nd floor between Section C and Section D)

Poster Session II: 16:00-16:45, Hallway of the 4th floor at Section N

[1] “Moving Ahead by Thinking Backwards: Cognitive Skills, Personality, and Economic Preferences in Collegiate Success”

Stephen Burks ([email protected]), University of Minnesota, Morris

[2] “Finite Sample Performance of A Minimum Distance Estimator under Weak Instruments”

Tak Wai Chau ([email protected]), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics


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[3] “Venture or Safety? Retirement and Portfolio Choice”

Guodong Chen ([email protected]), University of Michigan

[4] “A Case Study of the Effectiveness of Agricultural Subsidies Policies: Theory and Evidence from Huangpi District, Hubei, China”

Sanpan Chen ([email protected]), Huazhong University of Science and Technology

[5] “Impact of Population Growth Andone Child Policy on Economic Growth of China”

Qilei Fang ([email protected]), The University of Nottingham Ningbo China

[6] “Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers between UK Regional Worker Flows and Vacancies”

Deborah Gefang ([email protected]), University of Leicester

[7] “Toward an Understanding of Prosocial Preferences through “Citizen-soldier” Training”

Bing Jiang ([email protected]), Virginia Military Institute

[8] “Relative Performance Prizes and Dynamic Incentives: Theory and Evidence from Best-of-N Contests”

Xiandeng Jiang ([email protected]), Northern Illinois University

[9] “Asymptotic Normality of Estimators for Partially Linear Varying Coefficient Errors-in-Variables Models”

Chuan-Hua Wei ([email protected]), Minzu University of China

[10] “Understanding Fiscal Limits and Debt in the Developing Economies of Central America and the Caribbean”

Allan Wright ([email protected]), Center for Latin American Monetary Studies and Central Bank of Barbados

[11] “Modified Principal Factor Method with Iteration”

Yongjia Xu ([email protected]), Guangdong University of Finance and Economics

[12] “Federal and State Public Education Expenditures, Human Capital Accumulation, and Vertical Fiscal Transfers”

Mitsuyoshi Yanagihara ([email protected]), Nagoya University

[13] “Belief-Based Information Preference, and A Model of Informed Trading”

Suxiu Yu ([email protected]), Toulouse School of Economics


Session IP13: Labor Economics, 16:45-18:15, Room N203 Session Chair: Junsen Zhang ([email protected]), Chinese University of Hong Kong


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[1] “Neighborhood Interactions and School Choice: Evidence from The New York City” Weiwei Hu ([email protected]), Duke University

[2] “Can Money ‘Buy’ Schooling Achievement? Evidence from Urban China” Guochang Zhao ([email protected]), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

[3] “An Incentive Model of The Children’S Human Capital Investment” Andy Chung and Junsen Zhang ([email protected]), Chinese University of Hong Kong

Session IP14: Microeconomics IV, 16:45-18:15, Room N303 Session Chair: Zhijie Xiao ([email protected]), Boston College

[1] “A Classification of Bargaining Solutions by Evolutionary Origin” Sung-Ha Hwang and Jonathan Newton ([email protected]), University of Sydney

[2] “Incentives for Research Agents: Optimal Contracts and Implementation” Yaping Shan ([email protected]), University of Adelaide

[3] “Networks and Favor Exchange Norms under Stochastic Costs” Seungmoon Choi, Virginie Masson ([email protected]), Angus Moore, and Mandar Oak, The University of Adelaide

Session IP15: Chinese Economy in Globalization Era: Trade and FDI, 16:45-18:15, Room N302

Session Chair: Faqin Lin ([email protected]), Central University of Finance and Economics

[1] “Research Collaborations between Chinese and US Scientists and Engineers: A New Special Relationship?” Richard Freeman and Wei Huang ([email protected]), Harvard University

[2] “International Trade and Internal Migration: Labor Market Effects of Exports in China” Zheng Xu ([email protected]), Harvard University

[3] “How Do Importers Respond to The 'Dalai Lama Effect'? Finding The Devil in The Firm-Level Detail” Faqin Lin ([email protected]), Cui Hua, and Andreas Fuchs, Central University of Finance and Economics

Session IP16: Semiparametric Panel Data Models, 16:45-18:15, Room N301 Session Chair: Liangjun Su ([email protected]), Singapore Management University

[1] “Binary Response Correlated Random Coefficient Panel Data Models” Yichen Gao, Cong Li, and Zhongwen Liang ([email protected]), University at Albany, Suny

[2] “Discontinuous Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Models” Pavel Cizek and Weining Wang ([email protected]), Humboldt University at Berlin

[3] “Semiparametric Estimation of Partially Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models with


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Fixed Effects” Liangjun Su and Yonghui Zhang ([email protected]), Renmin University of China

Session CP22: Time Series I, 16:45-18:15, Room N401 Session Chair: Bin Wang ([email protected]), Shanghai Jiaotong University

[1] “Testing for Strict Stationarity of Time Series Processes” Yongmiao Hong, Xia Wang ([email protected]), and Shouyang Wang, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

[2] “A Powerful Test for Changing Trends in Time Series” Jilin Wu ([email protected]) and Zhijie Xiao, Shandong University

[3] “Nonparametric Estimation of Jump Diffusion Models” Joon Y. Park and Bin Wang ([email protected]), Shanghai Jiaotong University

Session CP23: Topics in Economics, 16:45-18:15, Room N406 Session Chair: Xiaoyi Han ([email protected]), The Ohio State University

[1] “A Mixed Frequency Macro-Finance Term Structure Model” Tingguo Zheng, Yuhuang Shang ([email protected]), and Kai Xia, Xiamen University

[2] “An Experimental Comparison of Reserve Price Auctions and Auctions with Renegotiation” Jason Shachat and Lijia Tan ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[3] “Bayesian Estimation of A Spatial Autoregressive Model with An Unobserved Endogenous Spatial Weight Matrix and Unobserved Factors” Xiaoyi Han ([email protected]), The Ohio State University

Session CP24: Asymmetric Information, 16:45-18:15, Room N501 Session Chair: Ernest Lai ([email protected]), Lehigh University

[1] “Why 'I Will Be A Better Person for You' Is A Lie” Jiemai Wu ([email protected]), Washington University in St. Louis

[2] “Social Interactions under Incomplete Information with Heterogeneous Expectations” Chao Yang ([email protected]) and Lung-Fei Lee, Ohio State University

[3] “Eliciting Private Information with Noise: The Case of Randomized Response” Andreas Blume, Ernest Lai ([email protected]) and Wooyoung Lim, Lehigh University

Session CP25: Macroeconomics II, 16:45-18:15, Room D209 Session Chair: Jang-Ting Guo ([email protected]), University of California, Riverside

[1] “The Dynamics of Hours Worked and Technology” Cristiano Cantore, Filippo Ferroni, and Miguel Leon-Ledesma ([email protected]), University of Kent

[2] “What Measures Chinese Monetary Policy?”


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Rongrong Sun ([email protected]), University of Nottingham Ningbo China

[3] “Sectoral Composition of Government Spending and Macroeconomic (In) Stability” Juin-Jen Chang, Jang-Ting Guo ([email protected]), Jhy-Yuan Shieh, and Wei-Neng Wang, University of California, Riverside

Session CP26: Financial Econometrics III, 16:45-18:15, Room D210 Session Chair: Tae-Hwy Lee ([email protected]), The University of California, Riverside

[1] “Input-Output Linkage and Aggregate Volatility: A Dynamic Factor Model Approach” Liang Chen ([email protected]), University of Oxford

[2] “Testing for Self-Excitation in Jumps” H. Peter Boswijk, Roger J. A. Laeven, and Xiye Yang ([email protected]), University of Amsterdam

[3] “Density and Risk Forecast of Financial Returns Using Decomposition and Maximum Entropy” Tae-Hwy Lee ([email protected]), Zhou Xi, and Ru Zhang, The University of California, Riverside

Session CP27: Regional Heterogeneity and Economic Consequences, 16:45-18:15, Room D309

Session Chair: Jennifer T. Lai ([email protected]), Guangdong University of Foreign Studies

[1] “Lineage-Based Heterogeneity and Cooperative Behavior in Rural China” Quqiong He ([email protected]) and Ying Pan, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Growing Unequal: Why Do Bigger Cities Have Higher Income Disparity in China?” Binkai Chen, Dan Liu ([email protected]), and Ming Lu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Consumption Risk Sharing and Self-Insurance Across Provinces in China: 1952-2008” Kenneth S. Chan, Jennifer T. Lai ([email protected]), and Isabel K. M. Yan, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies

Session CP28: Panel Data Models III, 16:45-18:15, Room D310 Session Chair: Jeremy Fox ([email protected]), University of Michigan

[1] “Early Childhood Education and Care and Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Ability in Japan Child Panel Survey 2010-2012” Hideo Akabayashi ([email protected]), Chizuru Shikishima, and Jun Yamashita, Keio University

[2] “Spatial Panel with Interactive Effects” Wei Shi ([email protected]) and Lung-Fei Lee, The Ohio State University

[3] “Identification of Discrete Choice Models for Bundles and Binary Games” Jeremy Fox ([email protected]) and Natalia Lazzati, University of Michigan


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Session MW04: Experimental Econometrics & Game Theory, 16:45-18:15, Room N118 Session Chair: Jason Shachat ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[1] “Generalized Maximum Entropy Estimation of Discrete Sequential Move Games of Perfect Information” Brett Graham ([email protected]) and Wang Yafeng, Xiamen University

[2] “Motives and Incentives in Crowdsourcing” Kevin J. Boudreau, Karim R. Lakhani, Annika Mueller ([email protected]), and Michael Menietti, Xiamen University

[3] “Pure Reciprocity under Alternative Procurement Mechanisms” Jason Shachat ([email protected]) and Weiwei Zheng, Xiamen University

18:30-20:30 Dinner

Friday, June 27


Session IP17: Time Series II, 08:30-10:00, Room N203 Session Chair: Degui Li ([email protected]), University of York

[1] “A Unified Approach to Testing Stability of Conditional Distributions and Conditional Moments” Bin Chen ([email protected]) and Liquan Huang, University of Rochester

[2] “Dynamics of Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Structural Forward and Backward Looking Approach” Wei Cui ([email protected]), Wolfgang K. Härdle, and Weining Wang, University College London

[3] “Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression with Endogeneity and Long Memory” Qiying Wang ([email protected]) and Peter C. B. Phillips, The University of Sydney

Session IP18: Microeconomics V, 08:30-10:00, Room N303 Session Chair: Dazhong Wang ([email protected]), Shanghai University of

Finance and Economics

[1] “Hybrid Mechanisms for Car Licenses Allocation with Bidders' Budget Constraints” Jianxin Rong ([email protected]), Ning Sun, and Dazhong Wang, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[2] “A New Pespective on School Choice with Consent” Qianfeng Tang and Jingsheng Yu ([email protected]), Shanghai University


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of Finance and Economics [3] “Simple Shill-Bid-Proof Mediated Auction Design”

Rukai Gong, Ning Sun, and Dazhong Wang ([email protected]), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Session IP19: Trade and China, 08:30-10:00, Room N302 Session Chair: Cheryl Xiaoning Long ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[1] “Revisiting The Linder Hypothesis with Production Fragmentation” Xiaoping Chen ([email protected]), Yi Lu, and Yunong Li, Nanyang Technological University

[2] “Trade Cost and Corruption: Evidence from China” Ying Ge ([email protected]), Jie Mao, Huiwen Lai, and Susan Zhu, University of International Business and Economics

[3] “Innovation and Export Growth in China” Feifei Fang and Cheryl Xiaoning Long ([email protected]), Xiamen University

Session IP20: Health Economics I, 08:30-10:00, Room N301 Session Chair: Xueyan Zhao ([email protected]), Monash University

[1] “The Relationship between Well-Being and Commuting Re-Visited: Does The Choice of Methodology Matter?” Andy Dickerson, Arne Risa Hole ([email protected]), and Luke Munford, University of Sheffield

[2] “What's The Point of Class? Random Coefficient and Latent Class Models to Identify Types” Stefanie Schurer ([email protected]), Frank Windmeijer, and Audrey Laporte, University of Sydney

[3] “Partial Identification of Treatment Effect in Binary Outcome Models with Endogenous Treatment - An Application to Effect of Health Insurance on Dental” Chuhui Li, D.S. Poskitt, and Xueyan Zhao ([email protected]), Monash University

Session CP29: Applied Econometrics I, 08:30-10:00, Room N401 Session Chair: Hon Ho Kwok ([email protected]), The University of Hong Kong

[1] “Testing Covariates in High Dimension Linear Regression with Latent Factors” Kuangnan Fang ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[2] “Estimation of Varying-coefficient Heterogeneous Panel Data Models with Cross-sectional Dependence” Zongwu Cai, Ying Fang, and Qiuhua Xu ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[3] “Identification Problems in Linear Social Interaction Models: A General Analysis Based on Matrix Spectral Decompositions” Hon Ho Kwok ([email protected]), The University of Hong Kong


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Session CP30: Matching and Assignments, 08:30-10:00, Room N406 Session Chair: Kai Ou ([email protected]), New York University

[1] “Assignment Games with Externalities and Matching-Based Cournot Competition” Bo Chen ([email protected]), University of Bonn

[2] “On Two Competing Affirmative Actions under Deferred Acceptance Algorithm” Yun Liu ([email protected]), Copenhagen Business School

[3] “I Deserve What I Own: Economic Status and Ethical Voting in a Real-effort Experiment” Kai Ou ([email protected]), New York University

Session CP31: Market Design, 08:30-10:00, Room N501 Session Chair: Zhe Li ([email protected]), Shanghai University of Finance and

Economics

[1] “Optimal Prize Rationing in All Pay Contest with Incomplete Information” Xuyuan Liu ([email protected]) and Jingfeng Lu, National University of Singapore

[2] “Contract Design for A Network of Time-Inconsistent Consumers” Fei Shi ([email protected]), Yong Sui, and Jianxia Yang, Shanghai Jiaotong University

[3] “Emission Tax or Standard? A General Equilibrium Analysis” Zhe Li ([email protected]) and Shouyong Shi, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Session CP32: Financial Friction and Macroeconomics, 08:30-10:00, Room D209 Session Chair: Dan Lu ([email protected]) and Yan Bai, University of Rochester

[1] “Financial Frictions and Firm Dynamics” Paul Bergin, Ling Feng ([email protected]), and Ching-Yi Lin, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Financial Development and Aggregate Savings Rates: A Hump-Shaped Relationship” Pengfei Wang, Lifang Xu ([email protected]), and Zhiwei Xu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Can Financial Frictions Explain China's Foreign Reserve Puzzle: A Firm Level Analysis” Dan Lu ([email protected]) and Yan Bai, University of Rochester

Session CP33: Macro Finance I, 08:30-10:00, Room D210 Session Chair: Linlin Niu ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[1] “Extrapolation Bias in Economic Fundamentals and The Aggregate Stock Market” Liyuan Cui ([email protected]), Cornell University

[2] “Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Moment Risk Premia” Huichou Huang ([email protected]), Ronald Macdonald, and Yang Zhao, University of Glasgow

[3] “A Flattening Power on the US Yield Curve: The RMB Appreciation Pressure”


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Shicheng Huang and Linlin Niu ([email protected]), Xiamen University

Session CP34: Optimal Contract, 08:30-10:00, Room D309 Session Chair: Jieying Hong ([email protected]), ESSEC Business School

[1] “Pay What Your Dad Paid: Commitment and Price Rigidity in The Market for Life Insurance” Radek Paluszynski and Pei Cheng Yu ([email protected]), University of Minnesota

[2] “Naked Exclusion through Exclusive Contracts” Bo Shen ([email protected]), National University of Singapore

[3] “Optimal Financial Contracting in Strategic Alliances” Jieying Hong ([email protected]), ESSEC Business School

Session CP35: Labor Force Participation, 08:30-10:00, Room D310 Session Chair: Shu-Chen Chang ([email protected]), National Formosa University

[1] “Labor Force Participation, Worker Heterogeneity, and Business Cycle” Ran Gu ([email protected]), University College London and CeMMAP

[2] “Endogenous Labor Participation and Involuntary Unemployment: An Estimated New Keynesian Model” Yuelin Liu ([email protected]), University of New South Wales

[3] “Openness and Environmental Pollution” Shu-Chen Chang ([email protected]) and Wan-Tran Huang, National Formosa University

Session MW05: Nonparametric Econometrics I, 08:30-10:00, Room N118 Session Chair: Ying Fang ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[1] “Semiparametric Empirical Bayes Estimator of Localized Bandwidth in Kernel Density Estimation” Tingting Cheng ([email protected]), Jiti Gao, and Xibin Zhang, Monash University

[2] “Feature Selection for Varying Coefficient Models with Ultrahigh Dimensional Covariates” Jingyuan Liu ([email protected]), Runze Li, and Rongling Wu, Xiamen University

[3] “Semiparametric Inference for Instrumental Variables Models with Partially Varying Coefficients” Zongwu Cai, Ying Fang ([email protected]), Ming Lin, and Jia Su, Xiamen University




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Session IP21: Panel Data Econometrics with Cross-Sectional Dependence, 10:30-12:00, Room N203

Session Chair: Qu Feng ([email protected]), Nanyang Technological University

[1] “Estimation and Inference for The Spatial Threshold Model” Badi H. Baltagi, Ying Deng ([email protected]), and Chihwa Kao, University of International Business and Economics

[2] “Testing for Sphericity in Two-Way Error Components Panel Model” Guangyu Mao ([email protected]), Beijing Jiaotong University

[3] “Estimation of Heterogeneous Panels with Structural Breaks” Badi Baltagi, Qu Feng ([email protected]), and Chihwa Kao, Nanyang Technological University

Session IP22: Nonstandard Inference, 10:30-12:00, Room N303 Session Chair: Yuanyuan Wan ([email protected]), University of Toronto

[1] “Inference on Moment Inequalities with Unknown Functions” Shengjie Hong ([email protected]), Tsinghua University

[2] “A Smoothed Maximum Score Estimator for Multinomial Discrete Choice Models” Jin Yan ([email protected]), The Chinese University of Hong Kong

[3] “Imposing Monotonicity in First Price Auctions: Estimation and Testing” Luo Yao and Yuanyuan Wan ([email protected]), University of Toronto

Session IP23: Topics in Econometrics, 10:30-12:00, Room N302 Session Chair: Shakeeb Khan ([email protected]), Duke University

[1] “Estimation and Testing for Threshold Effects in Regression Models with Unknown Functional Forms” Haiqiang Chen ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[2] “A Bayesian Analysis for Regime Shift Model with Nonparametric Regime Switching Mechanism” Haiqiang Chen, Yingxing Li, Ming Lin, and Yanli Zhu ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[3] “On the Informational Content of Special Regressors in Cross sectional and Panel Data Discrete Response Models” S. Chen, Shakeeb Khan ([email protected]), and X. Tang, Duke University

Session IP24: Mathematical Economics, 10:30-12:00, Room N301 Session Chair: Yeneng Sun ([email protected]), National University of Singapore

[1] “Ex Ante Efficient Auctions with Bi-Dimensional Private Information on Values and


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Entry Costs” Jingfeng Lu ([email protected]) and Yeneng Sun, National University of Singapore

[2] “On Pure-Strategy Equilibria in Games with Correlated Information” M. Ali Khan and Yongchao Zhang ([email protected]), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Stationary Markov Perfect Equilibria in Discounted Stochastic Games” Wei He and Yeneng Sun ([email protected]), National University of Singapore

Session CP36: Time Series III, 10:30-12:00, Room N401 Session Chair: Giuseppe Cavaliere ([email protected]), University of Bologna

[1] “Testing for A Nonlinear Unit Root in The Quantile Nonlinear Autoregressive Framework” Haiqi Li ([email protected]) and Sung Y. Park, Hunan University

[2] “A Simple and Powerful Extension to Nielsen's Tuning Parameter Free Unit Root Test” Jijie Zhao ([email protected]), Cornell University

[3] “Inference on Co-Integration Parameters in Heteroskedastic Vector Autoregressions” H. Peter Boswijk, Giuseppe Cavaliere ([email protected]), Anders Rahbek, and A.M. Robert Taylor, University of Bologna

Session CP37: Microeconomics VI, 10:30-12:00, Room N406 Session Chair: Yun Wang ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[1] “Comparing Open-Loop and Feedback Nash Equilibria in The Lab” Chen Ling ([email protected]), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Social Networks and Internal Migration in The United States” Jingjing Ye ([email protected]) and Daniel Millimet, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

[3] “An Experimental Investigation on Belief and Higher-order Belief in The Centipede Games” Yun Wang ([email protected]), Xiamen University

Session CP38: Trust and Reciprocity, 10:30-12:00, Room N501 Session Chair: Yi Zhang ([email protected]), Singapore Management University

[1] “Myths Can Alter Reality: Victors, Villains and Victims in The Trust Game” Roland Cheo and Lin Jing ([email protected]), MPI for Research on Collective Goods

[2] "Estimating The Production Elasticity of Labor: A Partial Identification Approach" Tadashi Sonoda ([email protected]) and Ashok Mishra, Nagoya University

[3] “Reputation Building through Failure” Yi Zhang ([email protected]) and Huan Wang, Singapore Management University

Session CP39: Housing Economics, 10:30-12:00, Room D209 Session Chair: Yufei Yuan ([email protected]), Xiamen University


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[1] “On The Impact of Rare Housing Disasters” Shaofeng Xu ([email protected]), Bank of Canada

[2] “An Empirical Analysis of Credit Ratings Game in Subprime Mortgage-Backed Security Market” Qi Sun ([email protected]), Shanjun Li, and Wei Tan, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Housing Supply and Land Use Regulations: A Chinese Case Study” Yufei Yuan ([email protected]), Xiamen University

Session CP40: Macro Finance II, 10:30-12:00, Room D210 Session Chair: Huanhuan Zheng ([email protected]), The Chinese University of Hong

Kong

[1] “Exchange Rate Policy in China after The Financial Crisis: Estimation of the Time-Varying Exchange Rate Basket” Martin Siddiquiand and Jarko Fidrmuc ([email protected]), Zeppelin University Friedrichshafen and Charles University in Prague

[2] “Product Market Threats and Stock Crash Risk” Si Li ([email protected]) and Xintong Zhan, Wilfrid Laurier University

[3] “Dynamic Global Games: Asset Price Bubble and Depression” Huanhuan Zheng ([email protected]), The Chinese University of Hong Kong

Session CP41: Public Economics, 10:30-12:00, Room D309 Session Chair: Hideya Kato ([email protected]), Nagoya Keizai University

[1] “Public Domain” Julio Davila ([email protected]), Universite c. de Louvain

[2] “Comparing The Cost of A Carbon Tax in China and The United States” Richard T. Carson, Mark R. Jacobsen, and Antung Liu ([email protected]), Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business

[3] “Federal and State Public Education Expenditures, Human Capital Accumulation, and Vertical Transfers” Hideya Kato ([email protected]) and Mitsuyoshi Yanagihara, Nagoya Keizai University

Session CP42: Optimal Pricing, 10:30-12:00, Room D310 Session Chair: Takashi Hayashi ([email protected]), University of Glasgow

[1] “Whose Trade Follows The Flag: The Economic Consequences of Bilateral Relation” Yi Zhou and Qin Chen ([email protected]), Fudan University

[2] “Induced Clean Technology Adoption and International Trade with Heterogeneous Firms” Jingbo Cui ([email protected]), Wuhan University

[3] “Gains from Trade” Takashi Hayashi ([email protected]) and Christopher P. Chambers, University of Glasgow


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Session MW06: Econometrics in Macro & Micro, 10:30-12:00, Room N118 Session Chair: Heather Anderson ([email protected]), Monash University

[1] “Macroeconomic Forecasting in Data-Rich World: Perspectives from Bayesian Variable Selection” George Athanasopoulos, Minfeng Deng, Anastasios Panagiotelis ([email protected]), and Farshid Vahid, Monash University

[2] “Employers’Age and Gender Preferences: Direct Evidence from Four Job Boards” Miguel Delgado Helleseter, Peter Kuhn, and Kailing Shen ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[3] “The Effects of Productivity Gains in Asian Emerging Economies: A Global Vector Autoregressive Framework” Taya Dumrongrittikul, Heather Anderson ([email protected]), and Farshid Vahid, Monash University

12:00-14:00 Lunch

Keynote Session IX: 14:00-14:45, Room N402 Session Chair: Ho-Mou Wu ([email protected]), Peking University

“China's Rise and Structural Transformation in Africa: Ideas and Opportunities” Justin Lin ([email protected]), Peking University



Parallel Sessions (15:15-16:45) 15:15-16:45 Invited Sessions IP25-IP27 15:15-16:45 Contributed Sessions CP43-CP51

Session IP25: Inference for Panel and Spatial-temporal Data, 15:15-16:45, Room N203 Session Chair: Jia Chen ([email protected]), University of York

[1] “Semiparametric Models and Estimation for Nonlinear Regression of Irregularly Located Spatial Time-Series Data” Dawlah Al-Sulami, Zudi Lu ([email protected]), and Jun Zhu, University of Southampton

[2] “Determining The Number of Groups in Latent Panel Structures” Xun Lu and Liangjun Su ([email protected]), Singapore Management University

[3] “Semiparametric GEE Analysis in Partially Linear Single-Index Models for Longitudinal Data” Jia Chen ([email protected]), Degui Li, Hua Liang, and Suojin Wang, University of York


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Session IP26: Nonparametric Econometrics II, 15:15-16:45, Room N303 Session Chair: Zaichao Du ([email protected]), Southwestern University of Finance and

Economics

[1] “Modified Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines with Economic Application” Wei Lin ([email protected]) and Aman Ullah, Capital University of Economics and Business

[2] “Nonparametric Additive Instrumental Variable Estimator: A Group Shrinkage Estimation Perspective” Michael Fan and Wei Zhong ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[3] “Nonparametric Bootstrap Tests for Independence of Generalized Errors” Zaichao Du ([email protected]), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

Session IP27: Non- and Semi-Parametric Inference, 15:15-16:45, Room N302 Session Chair: Yundong Tu ([email protected]), Peking University

[1] “Estimation in Triangular Models with Binary Response under Quantile Restrictions” Jen-Che Liao ([email protected]), Academia Sinica

[2] “Inference in Synthetic Control Approach: Generalization of Difference-in-Difference Estimation” Sangsoo Park ([email protected]) and Beomsoo Kim, Korea University

[3] “Functional Moving Average Model with Application to Forecast Chinese CPI” Yundong Tu ([email protected]), Peking University

Session CP43: Applied Econometrics II, 15:15-16:45, Room N401 Session Chair: Heng Chen ([email protected]), Bank of Canada

[1] “Comparing Predictive Accuracy and Model Combination Using Encompassing Test for Nested Quantile Models” Yan Ge ([email protected]) and Tae Hwy Lee, University of California, Riverside

[2] “Root N-Consistency of The Intercept of A Binary Response Model under Tail Restrictions” Yichong Zhang and Lili Tan ([email protected]), Yunnan University

[3] “Sheep in Wolf's Clothing: Using Least Squares Loss Function for Quantile Estimation” Heng Chen ([email protected]), Bank of Canada

Session CP44:Microeconomics VII, 15:15-16:45, Room N406 Session Chair: Yibai Yang ([email protected]), University of Nottingham

Ningbo China

[1] “Job Search, Liquidity Shock and Post Match Quality of Rural to Urban Migrants in China” Yuanyuan Chen and Zichen Deng ([email protected]), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Gender and Racial Peer Effects on Adolescents' Academic Performance and Smoking


35

Behaviors in Endogenous Networks” Chih-Sheng Hsieh ([email protected]) and Xu Lin, Chinese University of Hong Kong

[3] “On The Optimality of Blocking Patents” Yibai Yang ([email protected]), University of Nottingham Ningbo China

Session CP45: Political Economics and Institutions, 15:15-16:45, Room N501 Session Chair: Huan Wang ([email protected]), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

[1] “The Effects of Local Elections on National Military Spending: Theory and Evidence” Yufeng Sun ([email protected]), Yuke Li, and Liuchun Deng, Chinese University of Hong Kong

[2] “Local Finance and Local Growth: Macro and Micro Evidence from China” Chunyang Wang ([email protected]), Peking University

[3] “A Prospect Theory of Power Transition: Why Power Transition Does Not Imply War?” Huan Wang ([email protected]) and Yi Zhang, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Session CP46: Political Economy, 15:15-16:45, Room D209 Session Chair: Xiaojia Bao ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[1] “From Coercion to Politics to Law: The Evolution of Property Rights Protection” Fali Huang ([email protected]), Singapore Management University

[2] “Effects of Exchange Rate Variations on Bilateral Trade with a Vehicle Currency: Evidence from China and Singapore” Guangpu Yang ([email protected]) and Qingyang Gu, National University of Singapore

[3] “Political Tournament Competition and Infrastructure Construction in China” Xiaojia Bao ([email protected]), Xiamen University

Session CP47: Financial Econometrics IV, 15:15-16:45, Room D210 Session Chair: Diego Ronchetti ([email protected]), University of Groningen

[1] “Modelling Nonlinear Multivariate Diffusions: A Semiparametric Likelihood-Based Approach” Ruijun Bu ([email protected]) and Dennis Kristensen, University of Liverpool

[2] “Sovereign Debt, Real Interest Rate and Gold Pricing” Tao Lu ([email protected]) and SihaiFang, Research Center of China Securities Regulatory Commission

[3] “Comparing Asset Pricing Models by The Conditional Hansen-Jagannathan Distance” Patrick Gagliardini and Diego Ronchetti ([email protected]), University of Groningen

Session CP48: Topics in Economics (in Chinese 中文场), 15:15-16:45, Room D309 Session Chair: Jianbao Chen ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[1] “中国政府 2008 年四万亿投资的实证研究: 一种基于菲利普斯稳定化理论的观点” Huiyu Jin ([email protected]), Heng Cao, and Qingliang Fan, Xiamen University


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[2] “融资约束与自愿性信息披露” Hongjun Wu ([email protected]) and Zuoqing Guo, Xiamen University

[3] “罕见灾难风险和股市收益——基于我国个股横截面尾部风险的实证分析” Guojin Chen and Xiu Xu ([email protected]), Xiamen University

[4] “具有随机效应的空间自回归单指数面板模型的截面极大似然估计” Jianbao Chen ([email protected]) and Lin Sun, Xiamen University

Session CP49: Social Interaction and Coordination, 15:15-16:45, Room D310 Session Chair: Mingli Zheng ([email protected]), University of Macau

[1] “Communication, Leadership and Coordination Failure” Lu Dong ([email protected]); Maria Montero, and Alex Possajennikov, Nottingham University

[2] “Language and Coordination: An Experimental Study” John Duffy, Ernest K. Lai, and Wooyoung Lim ([email protected]), Hong Kong University of Science of Technology

[3] “Distributive Justice and The Threshold Level of Resource in The Fair Resource Allocation” Mingli Zheng ([email protected]), Chong Wang, and Chaozheng Li, University of Macau

Session CP50:Industrial Organization, 15:15-16:45, Room N118 Session Chair: Chenhang Zeng ([email protected]), Shandong University

[1] “Bundling and Nonlinear Pricing in Telecommunications” Yao Luo ([email protected]), University of Toronto

[2] “Optimal Nonlinear Pricing by A Monopolist with Information Ambiguity” Chong Wang ([email protected]), Mingli Zheng, and Chaozheng Li, University of Macau

[3] “A Model of Advance Selling with Consumer Heterogeneity and Limited Capacity” X. Henry Wang and Chenhang Zeng ([email protected]), Shandong University

Session CP51: Health Economics II, 15:15-16:45, Room N301 Session Chair: Chun-Yu Ho ([email protected]), Shanghai Jiaotong University

[1] “Macroeconomic Implications of Long-Term Care Policies” Daniel Barczyk ([email protected]) and Matthias Kredler, Mcgill University

[2] “Health Technology & Investment in Health: What Motive Drives Costs?” Hui He and Alberto Batinti ([email protected]), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Insuring Against Health Shocks with Self and Public Insurances: Evidence from China” Chun-Yu Ho ([email protected]), Xin Li, and Qinghua Shi, Shanghai Jiaotong University

18:00-20:00 Dinner

2014cmes guide and program 0621a -...

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