Fulfilment of Obligations aligned by the Kyoto Protocol and beyond

Y Karazhan (PhD) KEN PartnersRound table ldquoPositioning of Kazakhstan on a world arena and fulfilment of obligations

aligned by the Green Growth Strategy and Kyoto Protocolrdquo

17- 19 August 2015Workshop ldquoPromotion of Clean Energy in Resource-Rich Countries Case Study of

Kazakhstanrdquo Conference Room Abylay Khan Jumbaktas Hotel Karasakal Yerimbet Street 65 Astana Kazakhstan

bull Kyoto Protocolbull Kazakhstan reportingbull Kazakhstan and Kyotobull Scenarios optimisticbull Kazakhstan Emissions Trading Scheme (EMS)bull Scenarios ldquodown to the groundrdquobull Whatrsquos up with Dohabull Paris waiting for wondersbull Industry at oddsbull Sourcesbull About KEN Partners and GR Academy

Outline

11 December 1997 signed

Morocco 2001 the detailed rules for the implementation were adopted at COP 7 in Marrakesh and are referred to as the Marrakesh Accords

16 February 2005 came into force after ratification by 55 of world emitters

Commitment - cut emissions by 52 in 2008-2012 compared with 1990

KP mechanisms ndash JI (Annex 1 eg Japan has 11 partnerships) CDM (Annex 1 invest in Annex B) and Carbon Trade Kazakhstan has special status

Controversy bull Unfortunately USA with 35 of world emissions did not sign bull Russia Japan and New Zealand did not take commitments to cutbull In 2006 overall emissions by KP were 172 lower than in 1990 but most of it ndash due to

ldquohot airrdquo of the transition economies

Kyoto Protocol

Kazakhstan reporting

Kyoto Protocol in 2009 ratified in 2012 part of Annex B for the second period (2013-20)Commitmentsbull 5 cut down from 1990 by 2020 legally bindingbull 15 cut down from 1992 by 2020 voluntarybull 25 cut down from 1992 by 2050 voluntarybull 29 cut down from 1990 by 2020 ie not to over-emit above the average annual

emissions in 2013-20 compared to emissions in 2008-10 (as per Doha COP Paragraph 37ter yet to be ratified by two thirds)

If BAU there is expected increase GHG emissions (excl LULUCF) bull 355ndash361 MtCO2e by 2020 - the level is comparable with 1990 bull 443ndash491 MtCO2e by 2030 - 24ndash37 increase from the 1990Measures to cut down emissionsbull In May 2013 Kazakhstan adopted its Concept for Transition to Green Economy

bull The Concept repeats targets included in the Kazakhstan 2050 Strategy (2012) bull This includes providing 50 of total energy supply by alternative and renewable

energy sources (including nuclear) and bull decreasing energy intensity of GDP by 25 by 2020 compared to a 2008

bull 2007 Amendments to lsquoEcological Codersquo Emissions Trading Scheme was enacted in 2011

Kazakhstan and Kyoto

httpunfcccintfilesnational_repor

tsannex_i_natcom_applicationpdf

kaz_nc3456_engpdf

Scenarios optimistic

bull Samruk Energy forecasts that power gen will escalate from 100 bn kwh to 145 bln Kwh resource use will foster financial burden on Carbon economy

bull Kyoto Protocolbull Kazakhstan reportingbull Kazakhstan and Kyotobull Scenarios optimisticbull Kazakhstan Emissions Trading Scheme (EMS)bull Scenarios ldquodown to the groundrdquobull Whatrsquos up with Dohabull Paris waiting for wondersbull Industry at oddsbull Sourcesbull About KEN Partners and GR Academy

Outline

11 December 1997 signed

Morocco 2001 the detailed rules for the implementation were adopted at COP 7 in Marrakesh and are referred to as the Marrakesh Accords

16 February 2005 came into force after ratification by 55 of world emitters

Commitment - cut emissions by 52 in 2008-2012 compared with 1990

KP mechanisms ndash JI (Annex 1 eg Japan has 11 partnerships) CDM (Annex 1 invest in Annex B) and Carbon Trade Kazakhstan has special status

Controversy bull Unfortunately USA with 35 of world emissions did not sign bull Russia Japan and New Zealand did not take commitments to cutbull In 2006 overall emissions by KP were 172 lower than in 1990 but most of it ndash due to

ldquohot airrdquo of the transition economies

Kyoto Protocol

Kazakhstan reporting

Kyoto Protocol in 2009 ratified in 2012 part of Annex B for the second period (2013-20)Commitmentsbull 5 cut down from 1990 by 2020 legally bindingbull 15 cut down from 1992 by 2020 voluntarybull 25 cut down from 1992 by 2050 voluntarybull 29 cut down from 1990 by 2020 ie not to over-emit above the average annual

emissions in 2013-20 compared to emissions in 2008-10 (as per Doha COP Paragraph 37ter yet to be ratified by two thirds)

If BAU there is expected increase GHG emissions (excl LULUCF) bull 355ndash361 MtCO2e by 2020 - the level is comparable with 1990 bull 443ndash491 MtCO2e by 2030 - 24ndash37 increase from the 1990Measures to cut down emissionsbull In May 2013 Kazakhstan adopted its Concept for Transition to Green Economy

bull The Concept repeats targets included in the Kazakhstan 2050 Strategy (2012) bull This includes providing 50 of total energy supply by alternative and renewable

energy sources (including nuclear) and bull decreasing energy intensity of GDP by 25 by 2020 compared to a 2008

bull 2007 Amendments to lsquoEcological Codersquo Emissions Trading Scheme was enacted in 2011

Kazakhstan and Kyoto

httpunfcccintfilesnational_repor

tsannex_i_natcom_applicationpdf

kaz_nc3456_engpdf

Scenarios optimistic

bull Samruk Energy forecasts that power gen will escalate from 100 bn kwh to 145 bln Kwh resource use will foster financial burden on Carbon economy

11 December 1997 signed

Morocco 2001 the detailed rules for the implementation were adopted at COP 7 in Marrakesh and are referred to as the Marrakesh Accords

16 February 2005 came into force after ratification by 55 of world emitters

Commitment - cut emissions by 52 in 2008-2012 compared with 1990

KP mechanisms ndash JI (Annex 1 eg Japan has 11 partnerships) CDM (Annex 1 invest in Annex B) and Carbon Trade Kazakhstan has special status

Controversy bull Unfortunately USA with 35 of world emissions did not sign bull Russia Japan and New Zealand did not take commitments to cutbull In 2006 overall emissions by KP were 172 lower than in 1990 but most of it ndash due to

ldquohot airrdquo of the transition economies

Kyoto Protocol

Kazakhstan reporting

Kyoto Protocol in 2009 ratified in 2012 part of Annex B for the second period (2013-20)Commitmentsbull 5 cut down from 1990 by 2020 legally bindingbull 15 cut down from 1992 by 2020 voluntarybull 25 cut down from 1992 by 2050 voluntarybull 29 cut down from 1990 by 2020 ie not to over-emit above the average annual

emissions in 2013-20 compared to emissions in 2008-10 (as per Doha COP Paragraph 37ter yet to be ratified by two thirds)

If BAU there is expected increase GHG emissions (excl LULUCF) bull 355ndash361 MtCO2e by 2020 - the level is comparable with 1990 bull 443ndash491 MtCO2e by 2030 - 24ndash37 increase from the 1990Measures to cut down emissionsbull In May 2013 Kazakhstan adopted its Concept for Transition to Green Economy

bull The Concept repeats targets included in the Kazakhstan 2050 Strategy (2012) bull This includes providing 50 of total energy supply by alternative and renewable

energy sources (including nuclear) and bull decreasing energy intensity of GDP by 25 by 2020 compared to a 2008

bull 2007 Amendments to lsquoEcological Codersquo Emissions Trading Scheme was enacted in 2011

Kazakhstan and Kyoto

httpunfcccintfilesnational_repor

tsannex_i_natcom_applicationpdf

kaz_nc3456_engpdf

Scenarios optimistic

bull Samruk Energy forecasts that power gen will escalate from 100 bn kwh to 145 bln Kwh resource use will foster financial burden on Carbon economy

Kazakhstan reporting

Kyoto Protocol in 2009 ratified in 2012 part of Annex B for the second period (2013-20)Commitmentsbull 5 cut down from 1990 by 2020 legally bindingbull 15 cut down from 1992 by 2020 voluntarybull 25 cut down from 1992 by 2050 voluntarybull 29 cut down from 1990 by 2020 ie not to over-emit above the average annual

emissions in 2013-20 compared to emissions in 2008-10 (as per Doha COP Paragraph 37ter yet to be ratified by two thirds)

If BAU there is expected increase GHG emissions (excl LULUCF) bull 355ndash361 MtCO2e by 2020 - the level is comparable with 1990 bull 443ndash491 MtCO2e by 2030 - 24ndash37 increase from the 1990Measures to cut down emissionsbull In May 2013 Kazakhstan adopted its Concept for Transition to Green Economy

bull The Concept repeats targets included in the Kazakhstan 2050 Strategy (2012) bull This includes providing 50 of total energy supply by alternative and renewable

energy sources (including nuclear) and bull decreasing energy intensity of GDP by 25 by 2020 compared to a 2008

bull 2007 Amendments to lsquoEcological Codersquo Emissions Trading Scheme was enacted in 2011

Kazakhstan and Kyoto

httpunfcccintfilesnational_repor

tsannex_i_natcom_applicationpdf

kaz_nc3456_engpdf

Scenarios optimistic

bull Samruk Energy forecasts that power gen will escalate from 100 bn kwh to 145 bln Kwh resource use will foster financial burden on Carbon economy

Kyoto Protocol in 2009 ratified in 2012 part of Annex B for the second period (2013-20)Commitmentsbull 5 cut down from 1990 by 2020 legally bindingbull 15 cut down from 1992 by 2020 voluntarybull 25 cut down from 1992 by 2050 voluntarybull 29 cut down from 1990 by 2020 ie not to over-emit above the average annual

emissions in 2013-20 compared to emissions in 2008-10 (as per Doha COP Paragraph 37ter yet to be ratified by two thirds)

If BAU there is expected increase GHG emissions (excl LULUCF) bull 355ndash361 MtCO2e by 2020 - the level is comparable with 1990 bull 443ndash491 MtCO2e by 2030 - 24ndash37 increase from the 1990Measures to cut down emissionsbull In May 2013 Kazakhstan adopted its Concept for Transition to Green Economy

bull The Concept repeats targets included in the Kazakhstan 2050 Strategy (2012) bull This includes providing 50 of total energy supply by alternative and renewable

energy sources (including nuclear) and bull decreasing energy intensity of GDP by 25 by 2020 compared to a 2008

bull 2007 Amendments to lsquoEcological Codersquo Emissions Trading Scheme was enacted in 2011

Kazakhstan and Kyoto

httpunfcccintfilesnational_repor

tsannex_i_natcom_applicationpdf

kaz_nc3456_engpdf

Scenarios optimistic

bull Samruk Energy forecasts that power gen will escalate from 100 bn kwh to 145 bln Kwh resource use will foster financial burden on Carbon economy

httpunfcccintfilesnational_repor

tsannex_i_natcom_applicationpdf

kaz_nc3456_engpdf

Scenarios optimistic

bull Samruk Energy forecasts that power gen will escalate from 100 bn kwh to 145 bln Kwh resource use will foster financial burden on Carbon economy

Kazakhstan EMS still optimistic

ETS Design Element Kazakhstan

Sector coverage Oil coal and gas power mining and metallurgy chemical agriculture (debated) and transport (debated)

EmittersInstallations Covered

178 companies number of installations tbd

Emission Coverage Phase I About 55 of Kazakhstanrsquos GHG emissions and 77 of CO2Gases Covered Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and other gases after Phase I eg Methane

Threshold for Inclusion 20000tCO2eyrOffsetting Allowed mining and metallurgy agriculture housing and communal services

forestry prevention of land degradation renewables processing of municipal and industrial waste transport and energy-efficient construction

Trading Periods Pilot phase (2013) Phase II (2014-2015) Phase III (2016-2020)

Targets Overall -7 below 1990 by 2020 and a 15 reduction by 2025 compared with 1992 The energy sector is -3 by 2015 compared with 2012

0

2000

28032014 28042014 28052014 28062014 28072014 28082014 28092014 28102014 28112014 28122014 28012015 28022015 31032015 30042015 31052015

EMS in 2015 KZT for 1 quota

Scenarios CAT is more ldquodown to the groundrdquo

bull In Doha Ukraine Kazakhstan and Belarus gave their written consent to join CP2

bull They also voiced clear opposition to cancellation or limitation of any surplus units and may not ratify CP2

bull Paragraph 37ter would foster demand for AAUs Belarus by 94 million Kazakhstan by 290 million Ukraine by 417 million

bull Because of 37ter they will have to reduce emissions or purchase Kyoto units from other countries

Source Carbon Market Watch

The Doha effect time for concerns

bull Most of experts Paris will only consider framework conditions

bull Very possible scenario is discussion of a philosophy rather than

anything related to numbers

bull It will be important to discuss strategic cooperation issues

however This will help avoiding conflicts but will not address burning

topics which are on agenda of face-to-face discussions

bull The possibility to agree on numbers like laquo2 degrees Сraquo

or laquo$100bn per yearraquo

bull Doha condition is only possible if Kazakhstan

economic development remains at 2009 rates

bull Otherwise with 554 Euro per 1 ton of CO2 in 2014

the cost of 290 mln CO2 deficit will be

more than 16 bln Euro

bull Carbon Market Watch Bloomberg Energy Finance

predict even higher prices ndash up to 75 Euros

Paris waiting for wonder

Industry at odds

KAZENERGY Associationbull Refrain from any formal commitments to cut down emissions as per Kyoto Protocol conditions

particularly with regards to Doha Amendment bull Consider halting EcoCode amendments regarding carbon markets till 2020 and pay attention

to technical renovation insteadbull Consider scenarios planning exercise done per industry and overall and consider changes to

environmental legislation based on economic assessmentChamber of Commercebull Kazakhstan does not have commitments to cut yet

(Doha Amendment is subject to ratification)bull KP participation does not oblige to develop national caps bull Kazakhstan can continue with KP mechanisms without such commitments energy efficiency

alternative sources green economy ndash are all good ways to progressbull Without key emitters like US China India Russia Canada New Zealand the ldquoextra milerdquo efforts

to cut 07 worth of global emissions from Kazakhstan are not that significant bull Doha Amendment ratification will cause degradation of all sectors of economy social

disconnect economic downshiftbull It is important that any further step with regards to national commitments is

discussed with the industry

Sources

bull The Kyoto Protocol Refernce Manual on Accounting of Emissions and Assigned Amount httpunfcccintresourcedocspublications08_unfccc_kp_ref_manualpdf

bull The Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change 1997 httpunfcccintessential_backgroundkyoto_protocolbackgrounditems1351php

bull The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992 httpunfcccintessential_backgroundconventionbackgrounditems2853php

bull Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (theIPCC good practice guidance) httpwwwipcc-nggipigesorjppublicgpenglish

bull Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Good Practice Guidance for Land Use Land-use Change and Forestry 2003 (the IPCC good practiceguidance for LULUCF) httpwwwipcc-nggipigesorjppublicgpglulucfgpglulucfhtm

bull CRF (2014) UNFCCC AWG-KP Submissions 2014 Common Reporting Formatbull EDF amp IETA (2013) Kazakhstan The Worldrsquos Carbon Markets A Case Study Guide to Emissions Tradingbull ICAP (2014) Kazakhstan Emissions Trading Scheme (KAZ ETS)bull Republic of Kazakhstan (2013a) Concept for transition of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Green Economybull Republic of Kazakhstan (2013b) Third-Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the UN Framework Convention on Climate

Changebull Republic of Kazakhstan (2012a) Information by Parties included in Annex I listed in annex 1 to decision 1CMP7 on their quantified emission

limitation or reduction objectives for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocolbull Republic of Kazakhstan (2012b) Submission to the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol

(AWG-KP) Information by Parties included in Annex I listed in annex 1 to decision 1CMP7 on their quantified emission limitation or reduction objectives for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol 2 May 2012

bull Republic of Kazahkstan (2010) Kazakhstans pledge to the Copenhagen Accord Compiled in Compilation of economy-wide emission reduction targets to be implemented by Parties included in Annex I to the Convention UNFCCC (2011)

bull NERA Economic Consulting and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) (2011) The Demand for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Investments An Investorsrsquo Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Kazakhstan Prepared for EBRD October 2011 London

bull UNFCCC (2010) Compilation of pledges for emission reductions and related assumptions provided by Parties to date the associated emission reductions page 11-12

bull National Chamber of Commerce KAZENERGY Association correspondence with the Ministry of Justice Ministry of Energy 2015

Scenarios CAT is more ldquodown to the groundrdquo

bull In Doha Ukraine Kazakhstan and Belarus gave their written consent to join CP2

bull They also voiced clear opposition to cancellation or limitation of any surplus units and may not ratify CP2

bull Paragraph 37ter would foster demand for AAUs Belarus by 94 million Kazakhstan by 290 million Ukraine by 417 million

bull Because of 37ter they will have to reduce emissions or purchase Kyoto units from other countries

Source Carbon Market Watch

The Doha effect time for concerns

bull Most of experts Paris will only consider framework conditions

bull Very possible scenario is discussion of a philosophy rather than

anything related to numbers

bull It will be important to discuss strategic cooperation issues

however This will help avoiding conflicts but will not address burning

topics which are on agenda of face-to-face discussions

bull The possibility to agree on numbers like laquo2 degrees Сraquo

or laquo$100bn per yearraquo

bull Doha condition is only possible if Kazakhstan

economic development remains at 2009 rates

bull Otherwise with 554 Euro per 1 ton of CO2 in 2014

the cost of 290 mln CO2 deficit will be

more than 16 bln Euro

bull Carbon Market Watch Bloomberg Energy Finance

predict even higher prices ndash up to 75 Euros

Paris waiting for wonder

Industry at odds

KAZENERGY Associationbull Refrain from any formal commitments to cut down emissions as per Kyoto Protocol conditions

particularly with regards to Doha Amendment bull Consider halting EcoCode amendments regarding carbon markets till 2020 and pay attention

to technical renovation insteadbull Consider scenarios planning exercise done per industry and overall and consider changes to

environmental legislation based on economic assessmentChamber of Commercebull Kazakhstan does not have commitments to cut yet

(Doha Amendment is subject to ratification)bull KP participation does not oblige to develop national caps bull Kazakhstan can continue with KP mechanisms without such commitments energy efficiency

alternative sources green economy ndash are all good ways to progressbull Without key emitters like US China India Russia Canada New Zealand the ldquoextra milerdquo efforts

to cut 07 worth of global emissions from Kazakhstan are not that significant bull Doha Amendment ratification will cause degradation of all sectors of economy social

disconnect economic downshiftbull It is important that any further step with regards to national commitments is

discussed with the industry

Sources

bull The Kyoto Protocol Refernce Manual on Accounting of Emissions and Assigned Amount httpunfcccintresourcedocspublications08_unfccc_kp_ref_manualpdf

bull The Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change 1997 httpunfcccintessential_backgroundkyoto_protocolbackgrounditems1351php

bull The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992 httpunfcccintessential_backgroundconventionbackgrounditems2853php

bull Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (theIPCC good practice guidance) httpwwwipcc-nggipigesorjppublicgpenglish

bull Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Good Practice Guidance for Land Use Land-use Change and Forestry 2003 (the IPCC good practiceguidance for LULUCF) httpwwwipcc-nggipigesorjppublicgpglulucfgpglulucfhtm

bull CRF (2014) UNFCCC AWG-KP Submissions 2014 Common Reporting Formatbull EDF amp IETA (2013) Kazakhstan The Worldrsquos Carbon Markets A Case Study Guide to Emissions Tradingbull ICAP (2014) Kazakhstan Emissions Trading Scheme (KAZ ETS)bull Republic of Kazakhstan (2013a) Concept for transition of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Green Economybull Republic of Kazakhstan (2013b) Third-Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the UN Framework Convention on Climate

Changebull Republic of Kazakhstan (2012a) Information by Parties included in Annex I listed in annex 1 to decision 1CMP7 on their quantified emission

limitation or reduction objectives for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocolbull Republic of Kazakhstan (2012b) Submission to the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol

(AWG-KP) Information by Parties included in Annex I listed in annex 1 to decision 1CMP7 on their quantified emission limitation or reduction objectives for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol 2 May 2012

bull Republic of Kazahkstan (2010) Kazakhstans pledge to the Copenhagen Accord Compiled in Compilation of economy-wide emission reduction targets to be implemented by Parties included in Annex I to the Convention UNFCCC (2011)

bull NERA Economic Consulting and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) (2011) The Demand for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Investments An Investorsrsquo Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Kazakhstan Prepared for EBRD October 2011 London

bull UNFCCC (2010) Compilation of pledges for emission reductions and related assumptions provided by Parties to date the associated emission reductions page 11-12

bull National Chamber of Commerce KAZENERGY Association correspondence with the Ministry of Justice Ministry of Energy 2015

bull In Doha Ukraine Kazakhstan and Belarus gave their written consent to join CP2

bull They also voiced clear opposition to cancellation or limitation of any surplus units and may not ratify CP2

bull Paragraph 37ter would foster demand for AAUs Belarus by 94 million Kazakhstan by 290 million Ukraine by 417 million

bull Because of 37ter they will have to reduce emissions or purchase Kyoto units from other countries

Source Carbon Market Watch

The Doha effect time for concerns

bull Most of experts Paris will only consider framework conditions

bull Very possible scenario is discussion of a philosophy rather than

anything related to numbers

bull It will be important to discuss strategic cooperation issues

however This will help avoiding conflicts but will not address burning

topics which are on agenda of face-to-face discussions

bull The possibility to agree on numbers like laquo2 degrees Сraquo

or laquo$100bn per yearraquo

bull Doha condition is only possible if Kazakhstan

economic development remains at 2009 rates

bull Otherwise with 554 Euro per 1 ton of CO2 in 2014

the cost of 290 mln CO2 deficit will be

more than 16 bln Euro

bull Carbon Market Watch Bloomberg Energy Finance

predict even higher prices ndash up to 75 Euros

Paris waiting for wonder

Industry at odds

KAZENERGY Associationbull Refrain from any formal commitments to cut down emissions as per Kyoto Protocol conditions

particularly with regards to Doha Amendment bull Consider halting EcoCode amendments regarding carbon markets till 2020 and pay attention

to technical renovation insteadbull Consider scenarios planning exercise done per industry and overall and consider changes to

environmental legislation based on economic assessmentChamber of Commercebull Kazakhstan does not have commitments to cut yet

(Doha Amendment is subject to ratification)bull KP participation does not oblige to develop national caps bull Kazakhstan can continue with KP mechanisms without such commitments energy efficiency

alternative sources green economy ndash are all good ways to progressbull Without key emitters like US China India Russia Canada New Zealand the ldquoextra milerdquo efforts

to cut 07 worth of global emissions from Kazakhstan are not that significant bull Doha Amendment ratification will cause degradation of all sectors of economy social

disconnect economic downshiftbull It is important that any further step with regards to national commitments is

discussed with the industry

Sources

bull The Kyoto Protocol Refernce Manual on Accounting of Emissions and Assigned Amount httpunfcccintresourcedocspublications08_unfccc_kp_ref_manualpdf

bull The Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change 1997 httpunfcccintessential_backgroundkyoto_protocolbackgrounditems1351php

bull The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992 httpunfcccintessential_backgroundconventionbackgrounditems2853php

bull Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (theIPCC good practice guidance) httpwwwipcc-nggipigesorjppublicgpenglish

bull Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Good Practice Guidance for Land Use Land-use Change and Forestry 2003 (the IPCC good practiceguidance for LULUCF) httpwwwipcc-nggipigesorjppublicgpglulucfgpglulucfhtm

bull CRF (2014) UNFCCC AWG-KP Submissions 2014 Common Reporting Formatbull EDF amp IETA (2013) Kazakhstan The Worldrsquos Carbon Markets A Case Study Guide to Emissions Tradingbull ICAP (2014) Kazakhstan Emissions Trading Scheme (KAZ ETS)bull Republic of Kazakhstan (2013a) Concept for transition of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Green Economybull Republic of Kazakhstan (2013b) Third-Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the UN Framework Convention on Climate

Changebull Republic of Kazakhstan (2012a) Information by Parties included in Annex I listed in annex 1 to decision 1CMP7 on their quantified emission

limitation or reduction objectives for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocolbull Republic of Kazakhstan (2012b) Submission to the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol

(AWG-KP) Information by Parties included in Annex I listed in annex 1 to decision 1CMP7 on their quantified emission limitation or reduction objectives for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol 2 May 2012

bull Republic of Kazahkstan (2010) Kazakhstans pledge to the Copenhagen Accord Compiled in Compilation of economy-wide emission reduction targets to be implemented by Parties included in Annex I to the Convention UNFCCC (2011)

bull NERA Economic Consulting and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) (2011) The Demand for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Investments An Investorsrsquo Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Kazakhstan Prepared for EBRD October 2011 London

bull UNFCCC (2010) Compilation of pledges for emission reductions and related assumptions provided by Parties to date the associated emission reductions page 11-12

bull National Chamber of Commerce KAZENERGY Association correspondence with the Ministry of Justice Ministry of Energy 2015

bull Most of experts Paris will only consider framework conditions

bull Very possible scenario is discussion of a philosophy rather than

anything related to numbers

bull It will be important to discuss strategic cooperation issues

however This will help avoiding conflicts but will not address burning

topics which are on agenda of face-to-face discussions

bull The possibility to agree on numbers like laquo2 degrees Сraquo

or laquo$100bn per yearraquo

bull Doha condition is only possible if Kazakhstan

economic development remains at 2009 rates

bull Otherwise with 554 Euro per 1 ton of CO2 in 2014

the cost of 290 mln CO2 deficit will be

more than 16 bln Euro

bull Carbon Market Watch Bloomberg Energy Finance

predict even higher prices ndash up to 75 Euros

Paris waiting for wonder

Industry at odds

KAZENERGY Associationbull Refrain from any formal commitments to cut down emissions as per Kyoto Protocol conditions

particularly with regards to Doha Amendment bull Consider halting EcoCode amendments regarding carbon markets till 2020 and pay attention

to technical renovation insteadbull Consider scenarios planning exercise done per industry and overall and consider changes to

environmental legislation based on economic assessmentChamber of Commercebull Kazakhstan does not have commitments to cut yet

(Doha Amendment is subject to ratification)bull KP participation does not oblige to develop national caps bull Kazakhstan can continue with KP mechanisms without such commitments energy efficiency

alternative sources green economy ndash are all good ways to progressbull Without key emitters like US China India Russia Canada New Zealand the ldquoextra milerdquo efforts

to cut 07 worth of global emissions from Kazakhstan are not that significant bull Doha Amendment ratification will cause degradation of all sectors of economy social

disconnect economic downshiftbull It is important that any further step with regards to national commitments is

discussed with the industry

Sources

bull The Kyoto Protocol Refernce Manual on Accounting of Emissions and Assigned Amount httpunfcccintresourcedocspublications08_unfccc_kp_ref_manualpdf

bull The Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change 1997 httpunfcccintessential_backgroundkyoto_protocolbackgrounditems1351php

bull The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992 httpunfcccintessential_backgroundconventionbackgrounditems2853php

bull Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (theIPCC good practice guidance) httpwwwipcc-nggipigesorjppublicgpenglish

bull Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Good Practice Guidance for Land Use Land-use Change and Forestry 2003 (the IPCC good practiceguidance for LULUCF) httpwwwipcc-nggipigesorjppublicgpglulucfgpglulucfhtm

bull CRF (2014) UNFCCC AWG-KP Submissions 2014 Common Reporting Formatbull EDF amp IETA (2013) Kazakhstan The Worldrsquos Carbon Markets A Case Study Guide to Emissions Tradingbull ICAP (2014) Kazakhstan Emissions Trading Scheme (KAZ ETS)bull Republic of Kazakhstan (2013a) Concept for transition of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Green Economybull Republic of Kazakhstan (2013b) Third-Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the UN Framework Convention on Climate

Changebull Republic of Kazakhstan (2012a) Information by Parties included in Annex I listed in annex 1 to decision 1CMP7 on their quantified emission

limitation or reduction objectives for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocolbull Republic of Kazakhstan (2012b) Submission to the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol

(AWG-KP) Information by Parties included in Annex I listed in annex 1 to decision 1CMP7 on their quantified emission limitation or reduction objectives for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol 2 May 2012

bull Republic of Kazahkstan (2010) Kazakhstans pledge to the Copenhagen Accord Compiled in Compilation of economy-wide emission reduction targets to be implemented by Parties included in Annex I to the Convention UNFCCC (2011)

bull NERA Economic Consulting and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) (2011) The Demand for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Investments An Investorsrsquo Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Kazakhstan Prepared for EBRD October 2011 London

bull UNFCCC (2010) Compilation of pledges for emission reductions and related assumptions provided by Parties to date the associated emission reductions page 11-12

bull National Chamber of Commerce KAZENERGY Association correspondence with the Ministry of Justice Ministry of Energy 2015

Industry at odds

KAZENERGY Associationbull Refrain from any formal commitments to cut down emissions as per Kyoto Protocol conditions

particularly with regards to Doha Amendment bull Consider halting EcoCode amendments regarding carbon markets till 2020 and pay attention

to technical renovation insteadbull Consider scenarios planning exercise done per industry and overall and consider changes to

environmental legislation based on economic assessmentChamber of Commercebull Kazakhstan does not have commitments to cut yet

(Doha Amendment is subject to ratification)bull KP participation does not oblige to develop national caps bull Kazakhstan can continue with KP mechanisms without such commitments energy efficiency

alternative sources green economy ndash are all good ways to progressbull Without key emitters like US China India Russia Canada New Zealand the ldquoextra milerdquo efforts

to cut 07 worth of global emissions from Kazakhstan are not that significant bull Doha Amendment ratification will cause degradation of all sectors of economy social

disconnect economic downshiftbull It is important that any further step with regards to national commitments is

discussed with the industry

Sources

bull The Kyoto Protocol Refernce Manual on Accounting of Emissions and Assigned Amount httpunfcccintresourcedocspublications08_unfccc_kp_ref_manualpdf

bull The Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change 1997 httpunfcccintessential_backgroundkyoto_protocolbackgrounditems1351php

bull The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992 httpunfcccintessential_backgroundconventionbackgrounditems2853php

bull Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (theIPCC good practice guidance) httpwwwipcc-nggipigesorjppublicgpenglish

bull Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Good Practice Guidance for Land Use Land-use Change and Forestry 2003 (the IPCC good practiceguidance for LULUCF) httpwwwipcc-nggipigesorjppublicgpglulucfgpglulucfhtm

bull CRF (2014) UNFCCC AWG-KP Submissions 2014 Common Reporting Formatbull EDF amp IETA (2013) Kazakhstan The Worldrsquos Carbon Markets A Case Study Guide to Emissions Tradingbull ICAP (2014) Kazakhstan Emissions Trading Scheme (KAZ ETS)bull Republic of Kazakhstan (2013a) Concept for transition of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Green Economybull Republic of Kazakhstan (2013b) Third-Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the UN Framework Convention on Climate

Changebull Republic of Kazakhstan (2012a) Information by Parties included in Annex I listed in annex 1 to decision 1CMP7 on their quantified emission

limitation or reduction objectives for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocolbull Republic of Kazakhstan (2012b) Submission to the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol

(AWG-KP) Information by Parties included in Annex I listed in annex 1 to decision 1CMP7 on their quantified emission limitation or reduction objectives for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol 2 May 2012

bull Republic of Kazahkstan (2010) Kazakhstans pledge to the Copenhagen Accord Compiled in Compilation of economy-wide emission reduction targets to be implemented by Parties included in Annex I to the Convention UNFCCC (2011)

bull NERA Economic Consulting and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) (2011) The Demand for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Investments An Investorsrsquo Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Kazakhstan Prepared for EBRD October 2011 London

bull UNFCCC (2010) Compilation of pledges for emission reductions and related assumptions provided by Parties to date the associated emission reductions page 11-12

bull National Chamber of Commerce KAZENERGY Association correspondence with the Ministry of Justice Ministry of Energy 2015

Sources

bull The Kyoto Protocol Refernce Manual on Accounting of Emissions and Assigned Amount httpunfcccintresourcedocspublications08_unfccc_kp_ref_manualpdf

bull The Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change 1997 httpunfcccintessential_backgroundkyoto_protocolbackgrounditems1351php

bull The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992 httpunfcccintessential_backgroundconventionbackgrounditems2853php

bull Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (theIPCC good practice guidance) httpwwwipcc-nggipigesorjppublicgpenglish

bull Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Good Practice Guidance for Land Use Land-use Change and Forestry 2003 (the IPCC good practiceguidance for LULUCF) httpwwwipcc-nggipigesorjppublicgpglulucfgpglulucfhtm

bull CRF (2014) UNFCCC AWG-KP Submissions 2014 Common Reporting Formatbull EDF amp IETA (2013) Kazakhstan The Worldrsquos Carbon Markets A Case Study Guide to Emissions Tradingbull ICAP (2014) Kazakhstan Emissions Trading Scheme (KAZ ETS)bull Republic of Kazakhstan (2013a) Concept for transition of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Green Economybull Republic of Kazakhstan (2013b) Third-Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the UN Framework Convention on Climate

Changebull Republic of Kazakhstan (2012a) Information by Parties included in Annex I listed in annex 1 to decision 1CMP7 on their quantified emission

limitation or reduction objectives for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocolbull Republic of Kazakhstan (2012b) Submission to the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol

(AWG-KP) Information by Parties included in Annex I listed in annex 1 to decision 1CMP7 on their quantified emission limitation or reduction objectives for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol 2 May 2012

bull Republic of Kazahkstan (2010) Kazakhstans pledge to the Copenhagen Accord Compiled in Compilation of economy-wide emission reduction targets to be implemented by Parties included in Annex I to the Convention UNFCCC (2011)

bull NERA Economic Consulting and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) (2011) The Demand for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Investments An Investorsrsquo Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Kazakhstan Prepared for EBRD October 2011 London

bull UNFCCC (2010) Compilation of pledges for emission reductions and related assumptions provided by Parties to date the associated emission reductions page 11-12

bull National Chamber of Commerce KAZENERGY Association correspondence with the Ministry of Justice Ministry of Energy 2015

KEN Partnersrsquo authorized program in continuing professional education on government relations and corporate social responsibility

laquoGR Academy Strategic Communicationsraquo In partnership with International Business House ndash

educational center of professional education fully accredited by the British Energy Institute

Registration number 307468

2015 гAstana Kazakhstan

Scopebull Correctly designed projects development strategy requires commitment

to common goals of all organizational company departments while internal decision making processes should be able to swiftly react to ever changing external environment

bull Successfully implemented GR and CSR will help to increase efficiency of

companies save and enhance brand and achieve strategic advantages

bull laquoGR Academyraquo - is the first step to development of projects long-term sustainable development strategy

bull The approach is based on an empirical model of assessment of business long-term risks taking into account specifics of extracting industry in Kazakhstan

bull Social and marketing research

bull risk assessment and long term strategic consultancy

bull Government and stakeholder management

bull Reputation management and CSR(Corporate Social Responsibility)

bull CSR reporting

bull Event management

bull Fundraising

bull Technology transfer

bull Charity

bull Education programs

What do we do

We strategically partner with business and other public associations including

bull KAZENERGY Association wwwkazenergycom

bull KazWeld Association wwwkazweldkz

bull KazAlliance Association wwwkazallianceorg or on Facebook

Scopebull Correctly designed projects development strategy requires commitment

to common goals of all organizational company departments while internal decision making processes should be able to swiftly react to ever changing external environment

bull Successfully implemented GR and CSR will help to increase efficiency of

companies save and enhance brand and achieve strategic advantages

bull laquoGR Academyraquo - is the first step to development of projects long-term sustainable development strategy

bull The approach is based on an empirical model of assessment of business long-term risks taking into account specifics of extracting industry in Kazakhstan

bull Social and marketing research

bull risk assessment and long term strategic consultancy

bull Government and stakeholder management

bull Reputation management and CSR(Corporate Social Responsibility)

bull CSR reporting

bull Event management

bull Fundraising

bull Technology transfer

bull Charity

bull Education programs

What do we do

We strategically partner with business and other public associations including

bull KAZENERGY Association wwwkazenergycom

bull KazWeld Association wwwkazweldkz

bull KazAlliance Association wwwkazallianceorg or on Facebook

bull Social and marketing research

bull risk assessment and long term strategic consultancy

bull Government and stakeholder management

bull Reputation management and CSR(Corporate Social Responsibility)

bull CSR reporting

bull Event management

bull Fundraising

bull Technology transfer

bull Charity

bull Education programs

What do we do

We strategically partner with business and other public associations including

bull KAZENERGY Association wwwkazenergycom

bull KazWeld Association wwwkazweldkz

bull KazAlliance Association wwwkazallianceorg or on Facebook

Contacts

Yerlik Karazhan Ph DManaging Partner

+7 701 979 09 66YerlikKarazhankenpartnerskz

Yerken Azhigaliyev CSAPManaging Partner

+7 777 500 91 48YerkenAzhigaliyevkenpartnerskz

KEN Partners LLP httpwwwkenpartnerskz infokenpartnerskz