2015 cyber monday update · title: microsoft word - 2015 cyber monday update by fbic global retail...
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1 DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.
2015 Cyber Monday Update
• Cyber Monday (November 30), is the largest shopping day of the Thanksgiving weekend, and sales in the US are expected to approach $3 billion this year, up 12% from last year, according to Adobe Digital Index.
• Yet the National Retail Federation (NRF) released mixed data yesterday, reporting that, compared with a prior survey, a larger number of respondents to its most recent survey said they planned to shop Thanksgiving weekend. However, the NRF also expected 121 million people to shop on Cyber Monday, a 4.6% decrease from 2014.
• Anecdotally, we are seeing an explosion of Cyber Monday deals, from airlines to movie tickets to automobiles, and the websites of Target and PayPal reportedly experienced outages due to a surge in traffic.
• The shopping holidays are seeing huge growth in the UK, where online sales on Black Friday grew by 36%, to £1.1 billion. UK Cyber Monday sales are expected to grow by 31%, to £943 million.
Cyber Monday is happening quietly all around us, and Adobe estimates that total sales could approach $3 billion, up 12% year over year. Indeed, Adobe forecasted sales increases as depicted below for Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday:
Figure 1. Estimated Size and Growth Rates of the Three Largest Shopping Days in 2015
Source: Adobe Digital Index
$2.9 $2.7
$1.6
+12%
+15% +18%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
Cyber Monday Black Friday Thanksgiving
Grow
th (%)
Sales (USD
Bil.)
Sales Growth
2 DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.
MIXED DATA YESTERDAY FROM THE NRF Yesterday, the NRF and ShopperTrak posted mixed and slightly negative views on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. On the positive side, the NRF said that in an updated survey, 151 million people said they were planning to shop during Thanksgiving weekend: a prior survey found that 136 million people expected to shop during the weekend. (Ultimately, 102 million people visited stores and 103 million people shopped online during the weekend.)
The NRF further estimated that 121 million shoppers would shop online on Cyber Monday, down slightly from 126.9 million last year. Among the survey respondents, 24.4% said they would use a mobile device to shop and 80% said they would use a desktop device.
ANECDOTAL DATA ON CYBER MONDAY We have also collected anecdotal and other data on Cyber Monday:
• Cyber Monday is not limited to electronics or apparel. We have seen discounts offered on airlines, newspapers, movie tickets…even automobiles.
• Target and PayPal sites went down. The sites of Target and online payment system PayPal reportedly experienced outages due to a surge in traffic.
• Watson says… IBM’s Watson supercomputer predicted an 18%–20% increase in Cyber Monday sales, to $2.4 billion, as compared to $2.0 billion last year.
• Smartphones are #1. The Consumer Technology Association (formerly the Consumer Electronics Association) estimated that 57 million adults in the US shopped or planned to shop for consumer electronics technology during Black Friday week, and that their average purchase was about $150. The top items sought were:
ü Smartphones (26% of respondents surveyed)
ü Tablets (19%)
ü Laptops (15%)
ü Video game consoles (14%)
ü Smartwatches (3%)
CYBER MONDAY IN THE UK While Cyber Monday is a relatively new phenomenon in the UK and is just a fraction of the size of the US shopping holiday, it has grown rapidly:
• Online sales on Black Friday hit £1.1 billion (US$1.7 billion), up 36% year over year, according to Experian and trade group IMRG, exceeding the £1 billion mark for the first time ever.
• Amazon reportedly sold more than 7.4 million items on Black Friday in the UK, compared to 5.5 million items last year.
• Cyber Monday sales were forecasted at £943 million (US$1.4 billion), up 31% year over year.
• Total spending in the UK over the four days from Black Friday through Cyber Monday is estimated to be nearly £3.5 billion (US$5.3 billion).
3 DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.
Deborah Weinswig, CPA Executive Director—Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre New York: 917.655.6790 Hong Kong: 852.6119.1779 [email protected] Filippo Battaini [email protected]
Marie Driscoll, CFA [email protected]
John Harmon, CFA [email protected]
Aragorn Ho [email protected]
John Mercer [email protected]
Shoshana Pollack [email protected]
Kiril Popov [email protected]
Jing Wang [email protected]
Steven Winnick [email protected]
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