2015 emissions inventories workshop with eea (1) and its member countries 11 november, 2015 –...

2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop with EEA(1) and its Member Countries

11 November, 2015 – Brussels, Belgium

Latest work on aviation emissions in Europe Fuel Burn and Emissions Inventory System for the EEA

Prepared by Mark Whiteley, Robin Deransy, and Nuria Torres Meanafor EUROCONTROL

November, 2015

(1) European Environment Agency

Purpose – Serves 2 reporting systems

UNECE(1) CLRTAP(2) UNFCCC(3)

Kyoto Protocol

2

United Nations

2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels

(1) United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (2) Convention on Long-Range Trans-boundary Air Pollution (3) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Gaseous species and particulate matter categories that have to be reported to CLRTAP and UNFCCC

CLRTAP

carbon monoxide (CO) non-methane VOCs(1)

NOX (= NO + NO2) SOX (= SO2 + SO3) POM4PAH(2)

PM10(3)

PM2.5(4)

UNFCCC

carbon dioxide (CO2) carbon monoxide methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2O) non-methane VOCs NOX SOX

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(1) Volatile organic compounds(2) A set of 4 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons specified by the UNECE(3) All particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 micrometers(4) All particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers


States Coverage – November, 2015

ECAC(1)

44 States

EUROCONTROL (2)

41 STATES

AlbaniaArmeniaBosnia & Herzegovina GeorgiaMacedonia (Republic of)MoldovaMonacoMontenegroSerbiaUkraine

EU(3) 28 States

AustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzech RepublicDenmark

PortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenUnited Kingdom

AzerbaijanSan Marino

ItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsPoland

EstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIreland

NorwaySwitzerlandTurkey

LiechtensteinEEA33 States

Iceland

(1) European Civil Aviation Conference (2) European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation(3) European Union

2015 Emissions Inventories Workshop - Brussels 4

EUROCONTROL region/airspace


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Overview of the fuel burn and emissions inventory system

Generatefull trajectories

for EEA-33 flightsworldwide

Flight Schedule Data

Flight schedulesfor all flightsworldwide

Flight Plan Data

Flights + full/partial trajectoriesfor EUROCONTROL-41 flights in EUROCONTROL airspace

Generatefuel burnt + emissions

for EEA-33 flightsworldwide

Emissions Inventory

Flights +full trajectoriesfor EEA-33 flights

worldwide

Flights + fuel burnt + emissionsfor EEA-33 flights

worldwideAEM(1)


(1) Advanced Emission Model

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Any flight…

whose departure airport has the code “AFIL”

whose departure or arrival airport has the code “ZZZZ” or an unrecognised code or is missing

whose type of associated aircraft has an unrecognised or missing code

whose departure and/or arrival date and time is missing or cannot be determined

that is marked as being a military flight.

Flights excluded from calculation


Advanced Emission Model - AEM


Gaseous species and particulate matter categories treated by the AEM

acetaldehyde(1) (ethanal) acrolein (prop-2-enal) benzene(2)

buta-1,3-diene carbon dioxide carbon monoxide ethyl benzene formaldehyde (methanal) NOX POM16PAH(3)

POM7PAH(4)

propianaldehyde (propanal) SOX styrene (phenylethene) toluene (methylbenzene) total hydrocarbons water vapour xylenes (1,[2|3|4]-dimethylbenzene) non-volatile particulate matter volatile organic particulate matter volatile sulphur particulate matter

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(1) Organic gases in red (2) VOCs in blue(3) A set of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons specified by the UNECE(4) A subset of 7 of the compounds in POM16PAH


Gaseous species and particulate matter categories not treated by the AEM

methane nitrous oxide non-methane VOCs POM4PAH PM2.5 PM10


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Trajectory description (1)


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Trajectory description (2)


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Phase Phase duration Engine thrust settingTaxi out(1) 1140 seconds (19 minutes) 7%

Take off 42 seconds 100%

Climb out 132 seconds 85%

Final approach and landing 240 seconds (4 minutes) 30%

Taxi in(1) 420 seconds (7 minutes) 7%

(1) Applied for non-European airports and when no CODA(2) data are available(2) Central Office for Delay Analysis – A EUROCONTROL unit

Default ICAO take-off and landing phase durations and engine thrust settings


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Year Number of movements

Average taxi-out time

(minutes)

Average taxi-in time(minutes)

2005 176398 18.8 9.42006 197839 17.7 9.82007 209060 17.0 9.82008 215609 17.6 9.92009 210935 17.1 9.62010 197761 17.5 9.52011 203877 15.9 9.62012 197606 15.8 9.52013 188156 15.9 9.42014 181715 15.5 9.6

Examples of average taxi times at Paris CDG airport as determined by EUROCONTROL’s CODA


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Type of aircraft / Type of aircraft engine mapping


ICAO Aircraft Engine Emissions Databank

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http://easa(1).europa.eu/document-library/icao-aircraft-engine-emissions-databank


(1) European Aviation Safety Agency

http://easa.europa.eu/document-library/icao-aircraft-engine-emissions-databank



Turboprop fuel and emissions data

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http://www.foi.se/en/Our-Knowledge/Aeronautics/FOIs-Confidential-database-for-Turboprop-Engine-Emissions/




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The calculation made by the AEM


(1) Boeing Fuel Flow Method 2(2) US Environmental Protection Agency

BOEING Fuel Flow Method 2

Used above 3000 ft

The SAE AIR5715 2009 document details the procedure for the calculation of aircraft emissions

BFFM2 does not actually compute emissions; rather, it predicts the emission index (EI) values that can be used with fuel burn to compute the mass of emissions


AEM emission indices

H2O 1.23 kg per kg of fuel burnt

CO2

3.15 kg per kg of fuel burnt (3.05 kg for piston-engined aircraft)

SOX 0.84 g per kg of fuel burnt


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BADA performance table


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AEM input and output files


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Methodology document


Changes to the method in 2015

Geographic scope Mayotte included in the French Republic

Types of aircraft Changes to existing types Addition of new types

Taxi times 2014 taxi times (still for airports with >= 100 arrivals/departures per

year) Calculations

Some duplicate flights were removed PMtotal, PM0.1 and PM2.5 calculated outside AEM N2O was previously over-estimated by a factor of 1000


Sources of inaccuracy (1/3)

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Element Facts Level of inaccuracy

Flights in EUROCONTROL airspace

Data about flight trajectories are as accurate as the data stored in EUROCONTROL’s database is. All flights having a flight plan in EUROCONTROL airspace are stored in the EUROCONTROL database.

Low

EEA-33 OMR and OCT flights

Flights between EEA-33 OMRs and OCTs are taken from scheduled flight data – it is possible that a scheduled flight might not actually have taken place.

Low

Flight trajectories in EUROCONTROL airspace

Trajectories are based on corrected flight plans, and not on radar tracks, and therefore are slightly less accurate.

2-3%

Flight trajectories for EU28 zone

These trajectories do not take account of aircraft weight, engine type, etc.

10-20%



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Flight trajectories outside EUROCONTROL airspace

Trajectories might need to be completed or created based on standard maximum flight level, flight distance, and departure weight.

Medium

The AEM Model AEM is approved by ICAO CAEP. It provides results that are comparable with those of other models used at the CAEP level for fuel burn and emissions calculations.

Low-Medium

Aircraft type / Engine type association

An association is made between each type of aircraft and a type of aircraft engine type after checking for the 250 most seen aircraft types (covering around 99% of the European fleet). Because BADA associates only one type of engine to any particular type of aircraft, an aircraft might have one type of aircraft associated for the take off and landing parts and another one for the cruise part.

Low-High



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Taxi-out and taxi-in times

Annual average taxi-in and taxi-out times are provided by EUROCONTROL’s CODA for airports with more than 100 movements in a year.

Low

BADA Margin of error of BADA models Low

BFFM 2 Margin of error of BFFM 2Low-Medium

The models themselves

The margin of error of each species estimation (PM calculation...., NOX , CH4, N2O, etc.) Medium-High


Possible improvements in 2016

Get better aircraft / engine matches to increase the accuracy of the LTO data (and even the climb-cruise-descent data)

Use average annual taxi-in and taxi-out times for airports with less than 100 arrivals/departures per year

Refine the methodology for certain species (such as NOx [for AEM Version 2.5.3 onwards] and PM)

Get better sources for the emissions factors

Make more regular updates of the system data (such as on a monthly basis)


For further information


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Web portal requirements document


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General web portal architecture


For further information


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Thank you!

Slide 33


2015 emissions inventories workshop with eea (1) and its member countries 11 november, 2015 –...

Documents