Unit 3 - Future of Computing – Part 1

Cloud Computing

Image Sources: Microsoft Office Online Pictures Creative Commons

Janet L. Ochs

Technologies for unit• Artificial Intelligence - Driverless Car (Autonomous

Vehicle), Watson Supercomputer

• Robotics - Atlas, Wildcat, Google Robots

• 3 – D Printing

• Bionic Limbs and Implants

• Quantum Computing, Machine Learning

What is Artificial Intelligence (AI)?•John McCarthy  (2007) from Stanford University claims:

•“The ultimate effort is to make computer programs that can solve problems and achieve goals in the world as well as humans.”

•Alan Turing, the “Father” of AI, discussed a test for AI. If computer convinces a human it is a person, the computer passes the test. Today, it is called the Turing

Test.

•Rouse (2015) at TechTarget states AI includes “learning, reasoning and self correction” and may involve speech recognition.

AI Examples•Google Driverless Car

•http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LYi2NAi8zE

•Watson Supercomputer•http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dr7IxQeXr7g

11.2 million drivers in NY State212 million drivers in the United States(U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, 2013)

Map Source: Chinissai (2014) Map of NY State Route 13 Retrieved from http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:New_York_State_Route_13_Map.svg

Autonomous Vehicles or Driverless Cars

Image Source: Norbert Aepli (2014) Geneva Auto Show Retrieved From Http://Commons.Wikimedia.Org/Wiki/File:2014-03-04_geneva_motor_show_1186.Jpg

Computerized Operation

WHAT IS AN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE (AV)?

• Armstrong (2015) claims that driverless cars contain sensors (radar, light, ultrasonic), video devices and a computer. Used to determine how to apply the braking system, alter steering and change the speed.

• In the article “Fast Approaching: Driverless Cars” (2013), John Hanson from Toyota explains that “there are three basic aspects” – perception, processing and responding.

• For a demonstration of driverless cars, visit the following link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qu90xeckiyi

IS THIS A GLOBAL PHENOMENON?

Source World Map: CIA (2013) World Factbook http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CIA_WorldFactBook-Political_world.pdf

Audi, Volkswagen BMW (ENO, 2013)

GM, Ford(ENO, 2013)

Toyota(ENO, 2013)Apple

(Graham, 2015)

AV Trials(ABC News, 2015)

AV Trials(Merrett, 2014)

https://www.youtube.com/user/ochsjan/playlists

WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT?

• Yarrow (2014) claims that Volvo will have 100 cars on road by 2017

• Roger (2015) reports that Google will have vehicles on road within 5 years - 2020

• In an Engadet article (2015), the author claims that Mercedes will join by 2030

• The IEEE (2012) predicts that 75% of vehicles will be autonomous by 2040 Image Source: Jurvetson, S. (2012)

Google Self Driving Car Retrieved from http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Driving_Google_Self-Driving_Car.jpg

TOP 10 EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES 2015MIT Technology Review (Knight, 2015)

Image Source: Screen Shot MIT Technology Review & Illustration by Cillufo, L. Car to Car Communication Retrieved from  http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/534981/car-to-car-communication/

ARPANET – Internet

Global Positioning Systems (GPS)

Microelectronics for Smartphones

Mobile Robots (AVs)

Image and Text Source: DARPA (2012) DARPA Accomplishments Retrieved from http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Key_DARPA_accomplishments_spanning_more_than_five_decades.tiff

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

LESSONS FROM HISTORY

WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON PERSONAL LIVES?

ENO CENTER FOR TRANSPORTATION (2013) “PREPARING A NATION FOR AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES” RETRIEVED FROM

HTTP://WWW.CE.UTEXAS.EDU/PROF/KOCKELMAN/PUBLIC_HTML/ENOREPORT_BCAOFAVS.PDF

Obtain Multiple Perspectives Investigate Positive & Negative

Impacts

MAJOR ADVANTAGE - SAFETY

• “Traffic crashes remain the primary reason for death of Americans between 15 and 24 years of age.”

• “Over 30 thousand persons die each year in automobile collisions, with 2.2 million crashes resulting in injury”

• Driver error major problem and likely cause for “90 percent of all crashes.” (ENO Center for Transportation, 2013)

ADDITIONAL ADVANTAGES

• ENO Center for Transportation (2013) reports that increased vehicle to vehicle communication reduces road congestion

• ENO Center for Transportation (2013) claims that money on fuel is saved due to better braking and less speed fluctuations

• Morely (2015) predicts that a driver will “not need to own car or have parking facilities”

How can we use this space?

SUNY

COR

TLAN

D

DISADVANTAGES – COST, HACKERS, PRIVACY

• If not ridesharing, cost of AV technology is high. Added cost between $25,000 – $50,000 per vehicle until mass production peaks.

• AV computer systems are subject to hacking by terrorists, countries or employees

• Data ownership & privacy, control and storage is a gray area – all movements are tracked

(ENO Center For Transportation, 2013)

WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON PROFESSIONAL LIVES?

McKinsey & Company (2013) reports potential

impact of $1.9 trillion dollars annually by 2025

Chart Source: McKinsey & Company (2013) Disruptive Technologies Retrieved from http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies

HOW ARE PROFESSIONAL LIVES IMPACTED?

“There is growing anecdotal evidence that firms' inabilities to cope with emerging technologies have

produced high product and firm failure rates.”(Srinivasan, 2008)

Srinivasan is from McCombs School of Business, University of Texas, Austin

Failure to adapt can lead to lost revenue or bankruptcy.

MIT CENTER FOR DIGITAL BUSINESS

Image Source: Whitehouse.gov and Brynjolfsson, E. & McAfee, A. (2011) Race Against the Machine Retrieved from https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/PCAST/PCAST_May3_Erik%20Brynjolfsson.pdf

MIT Authors with Driverless Car

DISADVANTAGES – LOST JOBS

• “Many of the nation’s 240,000 taxi drivers and 1.6 million truck drivers could be displaced” (ENO Center For Transportation, 2013)

• “AVs could destroy about a million jobs in Canada”. Including “auto sector companies - assembly, aftermarket, repairs, financing, insurance” (Morely, 2015)

• Impact on “health providers - trauma surgeons, critical care nurses, car-crash victim rehabilitation officers & traffic police, road safety, driving instructors/trainers” (Morely, 2015)

DISRUPTION OF TRADITIONAL AUTO INDUSTRY

• Shared usage, drop in individual ownership

• Vehicle operating system vendor may emerge & outsource car

• Open to new players – Google, Apple

(KPMG, 2012) Chart Data: (KPMG, 2012)

BENEFITS – PRODUCTIVITY & OPPORTUNITY

• According to KPMG (2012), 90% of workers over 16 commute. Time and productivity gained. On average, 50 minutes per day.

• KPMG (2012) claims some companies will gain from these changes:

• Firms specializing in digital maps, LIDAR, GPS and Big Data• “Mobility on demand providers” such as Zipcar• Businesses with “complex distribution channels” or “car

service organizations”

SOFTWARE OPPORTUNITIES

PC Web Mobile Auto

Mapping, Security, Data Analysis,

Privacy, Car Apps

Image Source: Jurvetson, S. (2012) Google Self Driving Car Retrieved from http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Driving_Google_Self-Driving_Car.jpg

UBER CAR SERVICE & SMARTPHONE APP

• In a Harvard Business Review article by Webb (2015), the author discusses 2015 “Tech Trends You Can’t Ignore” including UBER

• “Back in February 2015, UBER announced a partnership with Carnegie Mellon University to build a robotics research lab in Pittsburgh. The goal is to create a fleet of driverless, robot cabs.”

(Farahi, 2015)

SUMMARY• Autonomous Vehicle = Driverless Car with sensors, video and a

computer (Armstrong, 2015)

• University and business sources claim there is a potential future impact (Brynjolfsson& McAfee, 2011)

• Changes are already occurring and will continue over 20-25 years (IEEE, 2012)

• The technology will impact personal lives and change privacy, vehicle expenses and car ownership (ENO, 2013)

• Driverless cars will disrupt professional lives and entire industries (KPMG,2012)

Emerging technologies are like rain drops. At first, a few droplets appear and the strength of the storm may seem far off and distant. Then,

seemingly without warning, the full power of the storm is upon us and the environment is changed. Depending on the storm, we may suffer

negatively or benefit from the ensuing downpour. (JANET L. OCHS, 2015)

Image source: Thyssen, M. Retrieved from http://commons.Wikimedia.Org/wiki/file:regnbyge.Jpg

REFERENCE LIST

ABC NEWS (2015) DRIVERLESS CAR TRIALS CLOSER FOR SOUTH AUSTRALIA ROAD USERS RETRIEVED FROM HTTP://WWW.ABC.NET.AU/NEWS/2015-04-22/DRIVERLESS-CARS-ADELAIDE-TRIALS-CLOSER-ACCORDING-TO-RAA/6411102

ARMSTRONG, J. (2015) HOW DO DRIVERLESS CARS WORK? RETRIEVED FROM HTTP://WWW.TELEGRAPH.CO.UK/MOTORING/MOTORINGVIDEO/11308777/HOW-DO-DRIVERLESS-CARS-WORK.HTML

BRYNJOLFSSON, E. & MCAFEE, A. (2011) RACE AGAINST THE MACHINE RETRIEVED FROM HTTPS://WWW.WHITEHOUSE.GOV/SITES/DEFAULT/FILES/MICROSITES/OSTP/PCAST/PCAST_MAY3_ERIK%20BRYNJOLFSSON.PDF

BUTTERMAN, E. (2013) FAST APPROACHING: DRIVERLESS CARS. (2013). MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, 135(5), 12-14. RETRIEVED FROM HTTPS://WWW.ASME.ORG/ENGINEERING-TOPICS/ARTICLES/AUTOMOTIVE-DESIGN/FAST-APPROACHING-DRIVERLESS-CARS

DARPA (2014) FACT SHEET RETRIEVED FROM HTTP://WWW.DARPA.MIL/ABOUT.ASPX

ENO CENTER FOR TRANSPORTATION (2013) PREPARING A NATION FOR AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES HTTP://WWW.CE.UTEXAS.EDU/PROF/KOCKELMAN/PUBLIC_HTML/ENOREPORT_BCAOFAVS.PDF

FARAHI, A. (2015, APRIL 30). EMBRACE, DON'T FEAR, CHANGE. LONDON COMMUNITY NEWS (ON).

REFERENCE LIST

FITZPATRICK, A. (2015). HERE’S WHY UBER WOULD SPEND $3 BILLION ON MAPS. TIME.COM, N.PAG.

GARTNER (2014) FIVE TOP SMART TECHNOLOGIES RETRIEVED FROM HTTPS://WWW.GARTNER.COM/DOC/2669320?REF=SITESEARCH&STHKW=SMART%20MACHINES&FNL=SEARCH&SRCID=1-3478922254

GIBBS, S. (2015) VOLVO TO TEST AUTONOMOUS CARS WITH ORDINARY DRIVERS ON PUBLIC ROADS BY 2017 RETRIEVED FROM HTTP://WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM/TECHNOLOGY/2015/FEB/24/VOLVO-TEST-AUTONOMOUS-CARS-ORDINARY-DRIVERS-PUBLIC-ROADS-BY-2017

GRAHAM, J. (2015) THE ICAR HAS CAPTURED OUR IMAGINATIONS RETRIEVED FROM HTTP://WWW.USATODAY.COM/STORY/TECH/2015/02/15/THE-ICAR-HAS-CAPTURED-OUR-IMAGINATIONS/23453693/

IEEE (2012) Look Ma, No Hands! Retrieved from Http://www.ieee.org/about/news/2012/5september_2_2012.html

KNIGHT, W. (2015) 10 BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOGIES 2015 – CAR TO CAR COMMUNICATION RETRIEVED FROM HTTP://WWW.TECHNOLOGYREVIEW.COM/FEATUREDSTORY/534981/CAR-TO-CAR-COMMUNICATION

KPMG (2012) SELF DRIVING CARS: THE NEXT REVOLUTION RETRIEVED FROM HTTPS://WWW.KPMG.COM/US/EN/ISSUESANDINSIGHTS/ARTICLESPUBLICATIONS/DOCUMENTS/SELF-DRIVING-CARS-NEXT-REVOLUTION.PDF

REFERENCE LIST

MCKINSEY & COMPANY (2013) DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES RETRIEVED FROM HTTP://WWW.MCKINSEY.COM/INSIGHTS/BUSINESS_TECHNOLOGY/DISRUPTIVE_TECHNOLOGIES

MERRITT, R. (2014) WHERE ARE SMART MACHINES HEADING IN 2015?. (2014). CIO (13284045), 1. RETRIEVED FROM HTTP://WWW.CIO.COM.AU/ARTICLE/562685/WHERE-SMART-MACHINES-HEADING-2015

MORELY, S. (2015) WILL THE GOOGLE CAR TRIGGER A HOUSING BOOM IS MUSKOKA? RETRIEVED FROM HTTP://WWW.MUSKOKAREGION.COM/OPINION-STORY/5587773-WILL-THE-GOOGLE-CAR-TRIGGER-A-HOUSING-BOOM-IN-MUSKOKA-/

SRINIVASAN, R. (2008) SOURCES, CHARACTERISTICS AND EFFECTS OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES: RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES IN INNOVATION RETRIEVED FROM HTTP://WWW.SCIENCEDIRECT.COM/SCIENCE/ARTICLE/PII/S0019850108000916

WEBB, A. (2015) TECH TRENDS YOU CAN’T IGNORE IN 2015 RETRIEVED FROM HTTPS://HBR.ORG/2015/01/THE-TECH-TRENDS-YOU-CANT-IGNORE-IN-2015

WOODWARD, C., & USA TODAY (2015). EFFECTS OF SELF-DRIVING CARS WOULD BE HUGE, REPORT SHOWS. USA TODAY RETRIEVED FROM HTTP://WWW.USATODAY.COM/STORY/MONEY/CARS/2015/03/04/MCKINSEY-SELF-DRIVING-BENEFITS/24382405

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION (2013) HIGHWAY STATISTICS SERIES LICENSED DRIVERS BY SEX AND RATIO TO POPULATION – 2013 RETRIEVED FROM HTTP://WWW.FHWA.DOT.GOV/POLICYINFORMATION/STATISTICS/2013/DL1C.CFM

SOURCES MICROSOFT OFFICE ONLINE PICTURES CREATIVE COMMONS

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CREATIVE TOOLS (2013) MAKERBOT 3-D PRINTER [IMAGE] RETRIEVED FROM HTTPS://WWW.FLICKR.COM/PHOTOS/CREATIVE_TOOLS/8544474991/

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